Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update23 January 2017MCYUtilities

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 01
Three months ended 31 December 2016

MOMENTUM

LOW

CHURN

4,250GWh

MOMENTUM CONTINUED FOLLOWING RE-BRAND

For the second consecutive quarter, Mercury’s continued focus on rewarding customer loyalty resulted in the Company achieving

the lowest switch rate (churn) amongst the major retailers. For the quarter ending 31 December 2016, Mercury’s annualised churn

was 15.9%, 3.3% below the market average of 19.2% based on publicly provided Electricity Authority data. This continued the

strong momentum delivered following the Mercury re-brand in July 2016 and contributed to customer numbers increasing by

6,000 over the period.

During the quarter, more than 100,000 customers were rewarded with a Free Power Day and almost 100,000 customers also

registered to benefit from the Company’s new Airpoints partnership.

The average energy price to customers was down 4.4% to $106.11/MWh relative to the same period last year. This reflects

additional commercial and industrial sales contracted throughout the year at lower prices than achieved historically (contributing to

a $5.50 reduction in the VWAP of sales to business customers) and the timing of customer loyalty product offerings.

FY17 HYDRO FORECAST MAINTAINED

Total hydro generation increased 205GWh on the same period last year to 1,112GWh. This reflects inflows into the Taupo

catchment being 28GWh above average and storage being 134GWh above average at the start of the period.

Based on the hydrological conditions observed throughout the quarter, Mercury continues to forecast midpoint FY2017 hydro

generation at 4,250GWh.

LWAP/GWAP remained flat with the prior comparable period last year, at 1.03. This reflects a continuation of lower wholesale price

volatility driven by above average national hydro generation. National hydro storage started 246GWh above average and remained

above average throughout the quarter.

Reflecting the continued wet conditions, the locational wholesale price difference (basis) between Otahuhu and Benmore nodes

was $8.38/MWh (or 21%).

DEMAND IMPACTED BY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND WET CONDITIONS

After adjusting for temperature, national demand was down 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year. The irrigation, dairy

processing and industrial sectors contributed -1.6%, -0.7%, and -0.7% respectively to the decrease in total national demand.

The decrease in the agriculture sectors can be attributed to the wet conditions experienced during the last six months with

significantly lower South Island irrigation requirements compared to last year along with reduced national milk collection.

Mercury will release its financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2016 on 21 February 2017.



STRONG MOMENTUM CONTINUES

FOLLOWING MERCURY RE-BRAND

LOWEST CUSTOMER SWITCHING

RATE OF THE MAJOR RETAILERS

HYDRO GENERATION FORECAST

MAINTAINED FOR FY17

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

>> COMMENTARY



MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 02




OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 December 2016

Three months ended

31 December 2015

Six months ended

31 December 2016

Six months ended

31 December 2015

ELECTRICITY SALES

VWAP

1


($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

1


($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

1


($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

1


($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

FPVV sales to customers 106.11 1,088 110.94 1,000 112.30 2,395 115.56 2,253

FPVV sales to residential

customers

554 554 1,302 1,340

FPVV sales to business

customers

534 446 1,093 913

FPVV purchases from market


1,150 1,056 2,529


2,380

Spot customer purchases 231 233 454 520

Total NZEM Purchases 48.38 1,381 70.23 1,289 54.83 2,983 63.27 2,900

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

(‘000)

387 380

North Island Customers 346 344

South Island Customers 41 36

Dual Fuel Customers 43 41

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh)

Buy CfD


395 458 904


929

Sell CfD 905 893 1,801 1,919

End User CFD 346 353 673 746

Net Sell CfD

2


510 435 897 990

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

VWAP

($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Hydro 49.28 1,112 69.36 907 55.14 2,367 61.41 2,215

Gas - - 76.74 46 - - 68.62 146

Geothermal (consolidated)

3


42.94 657 65.48 669 48.71 1,290 58.93 1,299

Geothermal (equity accounted)

4


44.97 58 66.27 59 49.77 113 59.40 118

Total 46.87 1,827 67.91 1,681 52.78 3,770 60.78 3,778

LWAP/GWAP 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04

CARBON EMISSIONS

(‘000 TONNES CO

2

E)

90 99 186 249

METRIX AMI METERS (‘000) 399 389







1

VWAP is volume weighed average energy only price sold to FPVV customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 176 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December 2016 and 176 GWh for the 3 months ended 31

December 2015 and of 352GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2016 and 352GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2015

3

Includes Mercury’s 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

4

Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share

>> OPERATING STATISTICS



MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 03



> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER


Source: Electricity Authority


> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER



Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA





>> MARKET DATA

34%

21%

17%

16%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q2 2016

34%

21%

19%

15%

5%

6%

Financial Year Q2 2017

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

MERCURY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER/TILT

OTHER

13%

87%

Financial Year Q2 2016

14%

86%

Financial Year Q2 2017

MERCURY

OTHER



MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 04


> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS


> TAUPO STORAGE


60

65

70

75

80

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

00000000000000

$/MWh


GWh


#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh


GWh


AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGE FY2016 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2017 NATIONAL STORAGE ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh


AVERAGE SINCE 1999 FY2016 FY2017



MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 05


> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE


> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE



$80.08


$80.06


$81.16


$71.49


$77.88


$79.59


$67.15


$78.15


$80.38


$59.80


$74.26


$77.99


$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

FY17FY18FY19

$/MWh


Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2015 AS AT 30 JUNE 2016

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2016

$76.05


$75.64


$76.10


$63.70


$72.75


$74.79


$60.20


$72.69


$72.45


$50.78


$68.10


$70.31


$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

FY17FY18FY19

$/MWh


Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2015 AS AT 30 JUNE 2016

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2016 AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2016



MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE 06


> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)

Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> NATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY (ºC)


FINANCIAL YEAR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2017

12.1 16.1 - -

2016 11.4 16.0 20.6 15.3

2015

11.9 15.9 19.9 14.3

2014

12.3 16.7 18.9 14.8

2013

12.3 16.5 19.6 14.4

Historical Average (since 1999)

11.9 16.1 19.4 14.2

Source: NIWA, Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

8,199

8,363

8,299

8,550

8,609

8,257

1,367

1,231

1,269

1,252

1,265

1,264

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q2 12Q2 13Q2 14Q2 15Q2 16Q2 17

GWh


Financial Year

NATIONAL CONSUMPTION TIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

% Churn



Monthly ICPs


NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS) ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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