Investor Roadshow presentation – April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Higher Res images pending: branding team Monday
2017 International Investor Roadshow
Dennis Barnes – Chief Executive Officer
April 2017
Ticker: CEN.NZE
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Disclaimer
2
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Notfinancial product advice: This presentation is for information purposes only and is not financial or investment advice or a recommendation to acquire Contact Energy's
(Contact) securities, and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision,
prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to their own objectives, financialsituation and needs and consult an NZX Firm, or
solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser if necessary.
Past performance: Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied uponas (and is not) an indication of
future performance.
Future performance: This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon
current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important
factors and risks. Although management may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could
prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realised.
Investment risk: An investment in securities in Contact is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of Contact. Contact
does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of Contact.
Financial data: All dollar values are in New Zealand dollars (NZ$ or NZD) unless otherwise stated. Any financial information provided in thispresentation is for illustrative
purposes only and is not represented as being indicative of Contact's views on its future financial condition and/or performance.
Disclaimer: Contact and its affiliates, related bodies corporate, directors, officers, partners, employees and agents: (i) exclude anddisclaim all liability, for any expenses, losses,
damages or costs incurred by you as a result of any information in this presentation being inaccurate or incomplete in any way for any reason, whether by negligence or
otherwise and (ii) make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability, fairness or completeness of information, statements, opinions,
forecasts, reports or other matters, express or implied, contained in, arising out of or derived from, or for omissions from,this presentation including, without limitation, any
financial information, any estimates or projections and any other financial information derived there from. Statements made in this presentation are made only as the date of this
presentation. The information in this presentation remains subject to change without notice. Contact has no responsibility orobligation to inform you of any matter arising or
coming to its notice, after the date of this presentation, which may affect any matter referred to in this presentation.
Recipient's agreement: Each recipient, by reading this presentation, irrevocably agrees (i) to be bound by the limitations set out in this presentation; (ii) that it waives, and will
not take any action in relation to, any rights (if any) it may now or at any time in the future have against any or all of Contact and its respective, affiliates, related bodies
corporate, directors, officers, partners, employees and agents; and (iii) to conduct its own independent analysis of Contact andthe presentation.
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
3
Profile
Dennis Barnes
Chief Executive Officer
Dennis Barnes has been Chief Executive Officer of Contact since 2011. Dennis has completed
Contact’s NZD2bn investment programme in renewable energy, flexible generation and
companywide systems. Over his time at Contact Dennis has provided industry leadership on
topics as wide ranging as wholesale electricity market structures and health and safety reform.
During 2015, Dennis successfully led Contact as its majority shareholder exited and Contact
diversified its shareholding base and listed on the ASX. Prior to joining Contact, he was General
Manager Energy Risk Management at Origin where he oversaw Origin's significant and expanding
operations in wholesale markets. Prior to Origin, Dennis held a number of positions operating in
international energy markets; including managerial roles at Scottish and English electricity
companies. Dennis' career began as a Metallurgist with Alcan and he holds a BSc(Hons), GradDip
(Marketing) and MBA.
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Contents
4
1
2
3
4
New Zealand
Electricity industry
Contact Energy
Industry and company information
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
New Zealand's stable economy and political system, reputation for innovation and the ease of
doing business make it an attractive place to invest
5
»Safe, stable and secure business environment
»Ease of doing business
»Comparatively low developed-country business
costs
»Simple tax system
»Market orientated economy
»Innovative and entrepreneurial culture
»Policies to promote skills immigration
»Abundant natural resources
»Strong international transport links
»Stable banking sector with Reserve Bank
supervision
»Modern telecommunications infrastructure
New Zealand has an open economy that works
on free market principles
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Sources: World Bank, 'Doing Business' 2016, Milkin Institute 'Global Opportunity Index' 2015, 2015-16 World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness index, Global
Finance World's Safest Banks index, Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom,Transparency InternationalCorruption Perceptions index
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
6
New Zealand has delivered significant and
sustainable economic progress
Real net capital
stock per person
rose 33% from 1991
to 2015
Assets and
infrastructure
Disposable
income
The energy intensity
of the economy has
decreased 25%
since 1990
Energy
intensity
The greenhouse gas
intensity of the
economy has
decreased 36%
since 1990
Greenhouse
gas intensity
Since 1987, labour
productivity has
increased by an
average of 2% a
year
Labour
productivity
The efficient and sustainable use of resources has seen positive movements in key economic,
social and environmental indicators over the past 30 years
Except for 2009 and
2010, average
disposable income
has increased every
year since 1992
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZ Progress Indicators, www.stats.govt.nz
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
The New Zealand economy is entering its
eighth year of expansion
7
Domestic
data and
business
surveys point
to a
continuation
of solid
economic
growth
Strong construction
Housing consents for 2016 up 10%
on strong population growth
Record high net migration
Annual net migration inflow of 71,300
(+1.5% of population)
Accommodative monetary policy
Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate is
expected to remain at a historic low of 1.75% for 2017
Strong tourism growth
Total annual hospitality spending up 9%, international
visitor arrivals up 11% to 3 million in 2016
Terms of trade
Merchandise terms of trade rose
5.7% in the December quarter (up
6.7% for the year), led by a 13.7%
increase in dairy prices
Consumer confidence is translating into growth in private consumption
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Source: The Treasury, Monthly Economic Indicators February 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
The New Zealand electricity market
continues to work effectively
Industry structure supports a reliable, affordable and environmentally sustainable electricity system
“New Zealand
serves as a
model for
effective
energy markets
and secure
power system
operation”
International Energy
Agency (IEA)
New Zealand 2017 Review
Quality
renewable
resources
Progressive
regulatory
settings
Stable political
environment
Rational market
competition
2011 competition and
security of supply reforms
have been effective.
Current focus on efficient
market structure including
transmission pricing and
how evolving
technologies will impact
distribution pricing.
Industry dominated by
five integrated companies
supplying 90% of the
market. Capable new
entrant retailers ensure
the retail market remains
competitive.
Low cost, long-life
renewable resources
including hydro, wind and
geothermal, which are
cost competitive with gas
and coal and have been
developed without
government subsidies.
Strong bipartisan support
to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions to 30%
below 2005 levels by
2030. Renewable energy
at target 90% by 2025.
»Electrification of
transport
»Geothermal energy for
industrial process
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
8
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Industry risks are balanced with potential for
growth, strong capital discipline to continue
9
Demand
Industrial demand
New technologyFuel
»Average household
consumption falling
through energy
efficiency
»Estimated population
growth of 320k p.a.
by 2020 (+7%)
»Electrification of
transport
»Tiwai - early
termination option
»Tiwai aluminium smelter
economics improving
»Dairy processing and
the conversion of coal
boilers to electricity
»New products and
services through a
deeper customer
relationship and
managing complexity
»Consented and scalable
renewable development
projects
»Geothermal energy for direct
use in industrial process
Opportunity
Risk
»Improving solar and
storage economics but the
transition is likely to be
slow
»Deploying capital into the
evolution of digital and data
»Only one natural gas
producing basin, with a
reserves / production
ratio of 12 years
»Carbon price
increasing
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
10
With strong cash flow, Contact is well placed to
grow shareholder value
Quality portfolio of
long life generation
assets
Internalisedrisk
management
Retail systems
and capability
Strong governance
and cash flow
supports agility
Contact is well
positioned to
manage all
risks.
Delivering
operational
performance
improvements
will unlock
opportunities
for growth
»Diverse and flexible
portfolio requiring
minimal investment
provides strong free
cash flow
»Consented
geothermal
development options
»Gas storage and
peaking thermal
generation
underpins internal
risk management
»Open share register
provides increased
liquidity and flexibility
relative to peers
»Board of Directors
bringing new
perspectives and
experiences from
other industries
»Investment in
systems and
capability,
supported by a
clearly articulated
customer strategy
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Contact is trading below intrinsic value making it
analysts’ preferred sector entry point
11
First NZ Capital
+20% - Buy
$5.88
UBS
+19% - Buy
$5.83
Goldman Sachs
+12% - Buy
$5.50
Macquarie
+7% - Neutral
$5.26
Forsyth Barr
+4% - Neutral
$5.10
27 March closing
share price
$4.89
12 month Target Price
Contact is
currently
undervalued
relative to
industry peers
on DCF and
multiple
valuation basis
EV / Consensus FY17
EBITDA9.8x9.4x10.8x12.2x10.6x
Consensus FY17 Free
Cash Flow Yield9%6%6%7%10%
Current
dividend yield 5.3%7.7%4.9%6.7%6.9%
EV / Consensus FY17
Free Cash Flow13.3x12.8x15.5x15.4x14.7x
P/E ratio (on consensus
FY17 Earnings)20.8x25.4x27.5x27.5x14.3x
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
$5.91
Deutsche Bank
+20% - Buy
Source: Bloomberg 27 March 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Contact’s debt levels temporarily higher
than peers
12
Contact’s financial framework prioritises a robust balance sheet, with strong free cash flow
currently directed to debt repayment
Free cash flowBalance Sheet
Investment in growth
»Operating cash
flow
•Less net interest
paid
•Lessstay in
business capex
•Addproceeds
from asset sales
»Investment grade
credit rating
•Net debt /
EBITDA ratio of
2.6 – 3.0
»Ordinary dividend equal to 100%
underlying profit
»Special dividend where
imputation credits available
»Share buyback
»Returns greater than risk
adjusted cost of capital
»Focus on areas of strength
Distributions
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
$122m in debt
repayment
between March
and December
2016. Capital
management
options once
debt reduces
within target
We expect net debt /EBITDA to return to our preferred
range during the 2017 calendar year
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
13
The Customer business will deliver value
by providing customers with choice,
certainty and control
01
Continuing to optimise the portfolio
02
The Generation business is on a
continuous improvement path focusing on
safety, reliability and resource utilisation
03
Accelerating debt reduction through cost control
and performance management
Keeping the focus on extracting value from our portfolio of assets
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
14
Biller
Me-tailer
Stabilise
Optimise
Sustain
>
>
Data| Digital| Flexible
Products| Service Model
Stabilising SAP. Securing and
strengthening our core business.
Lower Cost to Acquire & Retain
Optimise customer touchpoints and
value. Provide tailored products
and services for priority segments.
Lowest Cost to Serve
Expand beyond energy. Seek
scale efficiencies.
Reducing cost to serve and improving the customer experiencethrough systems-enabled
operational improvements
Delivering value by providing customers with
choice, certainty and control
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Net promoter score is improving
Source: Contact, relational NPS
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
FY15FY16FY17 target
$m
Electricity and gas cost to serve is reducing
... helping us evolve into a Living Services business
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
15
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Continuous improvement is focused on safety,
reliability, operating costs and resource utilisation
Improving the efficiency of our generation portfolio, reducing the cost of energy by $10m in 1H17
3,750
GWh
historic mean year annual hydro
generation
3,300
GWh
expected annual geothermal
generation
Improving efficiency of conversion (GWh produced per unit of geothermal fluid
extracted) at Wairakei, Te Mihi and Poihipi geothermal power stations
»8% improvement in conversion efficiency
»Generation capacity optimisation has increased extraction to
97% of consented mass take in 2016 (2015 – 98% and 2014
– 89%)
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
201420152016
Wairakei field masstake
conversion efficiency
(GWh/million tonnes)
3,900
GWh
+150GWh through efficiency
gains, with the last 3 years
above 4,000GWh
3,300+
GWh
on steam processingand
generating unit optimisation with
initial projects identified
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Through significant portfolio change, Contact has
delivered value for shareholders
16
Finding, developing and
generating the energy
the market requires
Understanding, winning
and keeping customers
»Geothermal and gas peaking
development options
supported by Ahuroa Gas
Storage
»Net promoter score key metric in
customer advocacy improved to
+18 in 3Q17 (3Q16 -2)
»Target of lowest cost to serve in
market
»Customer proposition realigned
to value
»Cost of energy improved from
$49/MWh in FY11 to $28/MWh
in 1H17
»Renewable generation of 84%
in 1H17 compared to 63% in
FY11
»Otahuhu closure September
2015
»Systems investment now
enabling benefits realisation
»Operational retailing
improvements have improved
the customer experience
»New products launched
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
»Generative safety culture
»Operational safety improvement
programme is redefining process
safety
»Employee engagement
improved from 44% in FY15 to
56% at June 2016
Health, safety and our people
Ownership and capital
structure
»Refreshed Board
»Full systems separation from
Origin completed
»Near term focus on reducing
debt
»TRIFR improved from 5.9 in
FY11 to 1.2 in 1H17
»Leadership role in the
development of New Zealand’s
health and safety maturity
»Process safety learnings being
sought from global peers
»Contact 100% free float with
listing on both NZX and ASX
»Equivalent of $1.16/share
distributed to shareholders in
last 2 years
»Improved tenor and diversity
of funding; BBB re-affirmed
Supporting our business through a lean and efficient
head office function
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Contact will continue to optimise the value of
assets in the portfolio
17
Low cost, long-life
renewable hydro
and geothermal
stations
Te Rapa thermal
plant provides
base load
production under
a long term fuel
and revenue
contract
The Stratford gas
peaking plant and
gas storage
facility internalise
risk management
and firm the
variable hydro
generation
volumes
The Taranaki
combined cycle
plant supports
discretionary
sales to C&I
customers
Thermal generating plant
Retail gas and electricity sales to mass market and C&I
customers
Retail LPG sales through reticulated network
and bottle delivery
LPG purchased from
3
rd
parties
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact
focuses on
structural
efficiency,
and balances
short term
earnings
impacts with
long term
value creation
$429m
$34m
$60m
FY16 EBITDAF
contribution
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
Higher Res images pending: branding team Monday
Industry and Company Information
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
19
The New Zealand electricity market
5
Major
generators
1
State-owned national
transmission grid
operator
29
Distribution
businesses
34
Retail
electricity
brands
2
Million
consumers
Hourly
wholesale
spot market
1/2
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
20%
13%
19%
25%
13%
10%
Retail electricity market share by customer
connections
Generation market share by volume
Industry dominated by five listed vertically
integrated companies
Source: Electricity Authority (year ended 31 December 2016)
»Exact generation market share is dependent upon hydrology
»Contact has a diverse generation portfolio which is closely matched to load, allowing management of exposure to market volatility
Source: Electricity Authority (as at 31 December 2016)
21%
34%
20%
16%
5%
4%
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
20
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
National demand by sector
New Zealand electricity supply (% of generation)
21
85% of New Zealand’s consumption of 39TWh
in 2016 came from renewable generation
»New Zealand has added subsidy free renewable generation, which, in a
period of flat demand, has displaced fossil fuels
Data source: MBIE, Electricity Authority
»Total demand has remained largely stagnant since 2008
»Distributed generation (e.g. solar) comprises approximately 0.1% of
the total annual generation
»Currently ~2,400 EVs in the total light passenger fleet of ~3 million
Agriculture/
Forestry/ Fishing
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015
NZ electricity demand (GWh)
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind
Gas
Coal
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
22
21%
our share of the electricity
generation market in New Zealand
84%
the proportion of electricity Contact
generated from renewable resources
in 1H17
$84/MWh
the electricity and gas netback we
received from retail sales in 1H17
$28/MWh
the average cost to supply electricity
and gas to our customers in 1H17
20%
our share of the national electricity
and gas markets by ICP (41% of LPG
market)
560k
customer connections across
electricity, natural gas and LPG
+12
our net promoter score for the 6
months ended 31 December 2016
5
th
equal
out of over 5,000 companies
globally in Thomson Reuters
Diversity & Inclusion Index as at
30 June 2016
$2.8bn
netassets
at 31 December 2016
BBB
S&P issuer rating
since 2002
71k
share and bond investors
at31 December 2016
36%
gearing ratio as at
31 December 2016
About Contact
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
23
Name
Capacity
FY16 Gen
Contact’s operations have a national footprint
covering 45 locations
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Including 11 power stations with 1,969MW capacity
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
24
Following a period of significant capital investment,
operating cash flow remains strong
EBITDAF and NPAT
Group operating and net investing cashflow
»One off non-cash impairments at Otahuhu and Taheke
and a write-down of inventory gas resulted in a loss in
FY16 of $66m
»Following a period of significant capital investment
operating cash flow is strong, despite margin pressure
in mass market electricity retailing
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY161H161H17
$m
Statutory Profit / (Loss)EBITDAF
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY161H161H17
$m
Investing cash outflowOperating cash inflow
Contact EnergyAnnual meeting of shareholders
October 2016
25
Contact raised equity to maintain its investment grade
credit rating during the period of capital investment
Total assets and liabilitiesShareholders’ equity and gearing
»Gearing has remained low over the period of capital investment, increasing in FY15 and FY16 due to capital management
initiatives and one-off impairments reducing the book value of equity, and has since stabilised
»As at 31 December 2016:
»Face value of total borrowings $1.61bn (including finance leases), relative to shareholders’ equity of $2.82bn
»Balance sheet gearing (net debt / net debt + shareholders’ equity) is 36.1%
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY161H161H17
$bn
Total assetsTotal liabilitiesBorrowings
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY161H161H17
Gearing ratio
$bn
Shareholders equityGearing ratio
30%
29%
28%
4%
9%
Bank DebtDomestic bondsUSPPNEXICP
26
Contact’s balance sheet is supported by a robust
funding portfolio
»Contact benefits from a funding portfolio that is flexible, efficient, diverse and has a manageable maturity profile:
•$600m total committed bank facilities ($187m drawn as at 31 December 2016) and $160m commercial paper
•Weighted average tenor of funding facilities 3.9 years
»Average weighted cost of borrowings down 0.4% from 1H16 to 5.1% in 1H17
Funding maturity profile
Funding sources
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23 - FY27FY28 - FY32
$m
Maturity
NEXIUSPPDomestic bondsBank
Contact EnergyInternational Investor Roadshow
April 2017
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.