Analyst Presentation
Petroleum Refiners Marsden Point, Private Bag 9024, Whangarei, New Zealand.
Telephone +64-9-432 8311, Website www.refiningnz.com
AN ALYS T P RES EN TATI O N
28
th
F EBRU ARY 2 0 18
The attached presentation is discussed via webcast conference at 9.15 am NZT on Wednesday, 28
th
February 2018.
D.M. Jensen
Ch ief F in an cial O fficer / Co m p an y S ecret ary
---
Analyst Briefing
28 February 2018
2
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results and operations of The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
(hereafter referred to as “Refining NZ”).
Forward looking statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties associated with the refining environment, including price and foreign currency fluctuations,
production results, demand for Refining NZ’s products or services and other conditions. Forward looking statements are based on management’s current expectations
and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those
expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward looking statements include among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Refining NZ to market risk and statements expressing
management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. Forward looking statements are identifiedby the use of terms and phrases
such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “goals”, “intend”, “may”, “objectives”, “outlook”, “plan”, “probably”, “project”, “risks”, “seek”, “should”,
“target”, “will” and similar terms and phrases.
Readers should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Forwardlooking statements should be read in conjunction with Refining NZ’s financial
statements released with this presentation. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute legal,financial, tax, financial product advice or
investment advice or a recommendation to acquire Refining NZ’s securities, and has been prepared without taking into account theobjectives, financial situation or
needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision, you should consider the appropriateness of the information havingregard to their own objectives,
financial situation and needs and consult an NZX Firm or solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser if necessary.
In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement.
RefiningNZ does not guarantee future performance and past performance information is for illustrative purposes only. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the
directors of Refining NZ, Refining NZ and any of its related bodies corporate and affiliates, and their offices, partners, employees, agents, associates and advisers do not
make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this presentation, or likelihood of fulfilment
of any forward-looking statement or any event or results expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement, and disclaim allresponsibility and liability for these
forward-looking statements (including, without limitation, liability for negligence).
Except as required by law or regulation (including the NZX Main Board Listing Rules), Refining NZ undertakes no obligation toprovide any additional or updated
information whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise.
Forward looking figures in this presentation are unaudited and may include non-GAAP financial measures and information. Not all of the financial information
(including any non-GAAP information) will have been prepared in accordance with, nor is it intended to comply with: (i) the financial or other reporting requirements of
any regulatory body; or (ii) the accounting principles generally accepted in New Zealand or any other jurisdiction with IFRS.Some figures may be rounded and so actual
calculation of the figures may differ from the figures in this presentation. Non-GAAP financial information does not have a standardised meaning prescribed by GAAP
and therefore may not be comparable to similar financial information presented by other entities. Non-GAAP financial informationin this presentation is not audited or
reviewed.
Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, 28 February 2018.
3
2017
2018
Agenda
4
Pipeline incident
Did I crumble? Did you think I’d lay down?
*)
Revenue loss $8.3m, extra costs $6.0m,
insurance recovery $2.9m
Throughputs higher today than before the
incident
No prosecution -external expert studies
concluded:
•Pipeline well run in lead-up to incident
•Incident due to external force
Resilience improvement:
•LIDAR trial
•33 kV at Wellsford pump station
•Feasibility study into improved truck loading
We expect a Q2/3 return to full pressure post pig-
run validation
Oh no not I...
I will survive!
* Lyrics from “I will survive” made famous by Gloria Gaynor and Shirley Bassey
5
FY 16FY 17
Gross RefineryMargin (US$/barrel)6.478.01
Free cash flow (NZ$m)
[1]
47103
Net profit after tax–Group (NZ$m)4779
Personal
TRCF
[2]
0.510.89
LTIF
[2]
0.250.26
Process
Tier 1 (>US$25k)
[3]
10
Tier 2 (>US$2.5k)
[3]
04
Releases outside consent54
Throughput (million barrels)42.741.7
Operational availability96.9%98.0%
Brent price (US$/barrel)4454
Exchange rate (US$)0.700.71
Environmental
DELIVER A
WORLD CLASS
PERFORMANCE
Quality and
reliability
BUILD ON
ELEMENTS OF OUR
CUSTOMER
PROMISE
Strong financial performance...
Despite tough operational and reputational challenges in the second half
Competitiveness
IMPROVE OUR
Health
and safety
DELIVERING
WORLD CLASS
PERFORMANCE
[1] Free cash flow calculated as operatingcash flowminus actual capital expenditures
[2] Per 200,000 hours, rolling 12-month
[3] For a full definition please refer to Glossary in Appendix I
See our Annual Report for further detail, available at http://www.refiningnz.com/investor-centre.aspx
6
Margins continue at top of historical average...
Growth strategy continues to pay off in a tough competitive environment
* The Singapore Complex Margin is calculated using Platts Dubai crude and Singapore product prices, VLCC freight to
Singapore, and the International Energy Agency’s Dubai complex refinery yields adjusted for fuel & loss.
Uplift 2017 versus 2016US$/barrel
Freight0.37
Product quality(0.11)
Plant availability0.52
Crude cost and yield0.27
1.05
7
EBITDA up 32%
Subsequent to balance date –Refining NZ’s business interruption claim has been accepted
See our Annual Report for further detail, available athttp://www.refiningnz.com/investor-centre.aspx
8
New simplified dividend policy...
Resulting in 12 cps final dividend
Refining NZ’s dividend policy is to pay 80% of Free Cash Flow (FCF) as ordinary dividends.
Subject to the Board’s due consideration of the Company’s:
•medium-term asset investment programme,
•20% targeted average gearing level, and
•future circumstances including the profitability, growth opportunities, and the
financial and taxation position of Refining NZ.
Free Cash Flow is the Net Cash from Operating Activities less normalised stay-in-business capital.
9
2017 Growth delivery
33 US cents per barrel delivered
*)
Pipeline Stage II
Natural Gas
JunJulAugSepOctNovDec
GRM-add (US cents per barrel)
Post Te Mahi Hou Optimisation:
- Hydrogen recovery from BRU: compressor
- Hydrogen recovery from CCR: Advanced Process Control
Other short payback projects
Natural Gas
Pipeline capacity increase: Stages I and II
Jet fuel tank farm re-configuration
Sulphur solidification
Cumulative
15+23+34+
6
2.5
1.5
15+
8.5 at full capacity
35+
1
* Pending recertification of pipeline at 87 bar
10
2017
2018
Agenda
11
Strong macro continues
Capacity additions and retirements “locked in” to early 2020s with an IMO caveat
Asia Net Capacity Additions vs. Oil Product Demand Growth
Source: FACTS Global Energy (January 2018)
12
We are well set up for the 2018 shut
•Capital spend NZ$85m
•Hydrocracker shutdown 39 days –comparable
with 2014
•Financial impact NZ$30m –comparable with a
normal hydrocracker shutdown
•Intake 42.3mbbls
Total refineryshutdown
Crude distiller 2
Mechanical/consequential shutdownShutting down/startup
Hydrocracker,
High vacuum unit 2
Butane de-asphaltingunit
Sulphur recovery units
Crude distiller 1,
High vacuum unit 1
May-18Jun-18
8days
39days
14days
20-Apr-18
13
•Resource consent
hearing in February
2018
•Dredging 2019/ 2020
onwards
*)
D R E D G I N GP I P E L I N E C A PA C I T Y
•Phase 3 2019
•Further expansion
*)
•Completion 2018
J E T TA N K FA R M
R E C O N F I G U R AT I O N
•Hydrogen recovery
from BRU
•Additional nitrogen
storage
•Tops to Benzene
Removal Unit
•VSD on C252
S H O RT PAY B A C K
P RO J E C T S
•Completion 2018
S U L P H U R
F O R M I N G
$20m earmarked for 2018 growth projects
Delivering 18 US cents per barrel new income
* Subject to final Board approval
14
2018 profit and borrowings matrix
Capex (NZ$m)20182019
RetainWas119-
Now11480
GrowWas14-
Now205
USD
Exchange Rate0.600.650.700.750.80
GRM
USD
217(5)(16)(25)
208228244259272
584126143
165182201218233
9475584330
128148165180195
131109897258
92114133150165
16814212110285
5580102121137
42 Production: (Barrels ('000's)
90 Non Processing Fee Revenue, $m
93 Depreciation, $m
8.00
9.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Analyst Briefing
28 February 2018
16
Appendix I
Glossary
LTIF-Lost time injury frequency (rolling 12 month per 200,000 hours)
TRCF-Total recordable case frequency (rolling 12 month per 200,000 hours)
Tier 1 Process Safety Event (API 754)-A tier 1 Process Safety Event (PSE) is an unplanned or uncontrolled release of any material, including non-toxic
and non-flammable, from a process which results in one or more of the following: A LTI and/or fatality; A fire or explosion resulting in greater than or
equal to $25,000 of direct cost to the company; A release of material greater than the threshold quantities given in Table 1 of API 754 in any one-hour
period; An officially declared community evacuation or community shelter-in-place.
Tier 2 Process Safety Event (API 754)-A tier 2 Process Safety Event (PSE) is an unplanned or uncontrolled release of any material, including non-toxic
and non-flammable, from a process which results in one or more of the following: A recordable injury; A fire or explosion resulting in greater than or
equal to $2,500 of direct cost to the company; A release of material greater than the threshold quantities given in Table 2 of API 754 in any one-hour
period.
Dividend Policy
Refining NZ’s dividend policy is to pay 80% of Free Cash Flow (FCF) as ordinary dividends subject to the Board’s due consideration of theCompany’s
medium-term asset investment programme, 20% targeted average gearing level and future circumstances including the profitability,growth
opportunities, and the financial and taxation position of Refining NZ.
Free Cash Flow is the Net Cash from Operating Activities less normalised stay-in-business capital.
Dividend payments are expected to be split into an interim dividend paid in September and a final dividend paid in March.
It is the intention of the Board to attach imputation credits to dividends to the extent that they are available.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- CRP — Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited: Chatham to present at NZ Minerals Forum 20182018-02-08
“NEWS RELEASE 18-3 February 8, 2018 CHATHAM ROCK PHOSPHATE LIMITED TO PRESENT AT NZ MINERALS FORUM 2018 WELLINGTON New Zealand – Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (TSXV: “NZP” and NZAX: “CRP” or the “Company") is pleased to announce that it has been inv…”
- MEL — Meridian Energy Limited: Interim results teleconference details2018-02-08
“PG 1 Interim results teleconference details 8 February 2018 Meridian Energy Limited advises that Chief Executive, Neal Barclay and Chief Financial Officer, Paul Chambers will host a conference call on the company’s interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2017…”
- MCY — Mercury NZ Limited: Interim results webcast and teleconference details2018-02-12
“Interim results webcast and teleconference details 12 February 2018 – Mercury’s interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2017 will be announced on Tuesday 27 February 2018. Mercury's Chief Executive, Fraser Whineray, and Chief Financial Officer, William Meek, will…”