Infratil 2018 Investor Day and Preliminary Guidance FY2019
Infratil Limited 5 Market Lane, PO Box 320, Wellington, New Zealand Tel +64-4-473 3663 www.infratil.com
Infratil 2018 Investor Day and Preliminary Guidance FY2019
11 April 2018
Infratil has released the presentation material for its annual Investor Day. Presentations are
recorded during the day and will be available to view on www.infratil.com after the event.
Infratil’s objective is to keep its stakeholders well informed about how its businesses are
performing and how their delivery on strategic objectives is progressing. Over recent years
Infratil has established new platforms to drive future growth and returns. Each of these
businesses are reporting on progress.
Also addressed are the themes underlying Infratil investments; decarbonisation of energy
and transport, air travel, accommodation and care for the elderly, electronic data services,
urban mobility, and student accommodation.
Infratil anticipates delivering a FY18 result that is at the top end of its guidance range.
Guidance for 2018 excludes potential upside from associates’ investment valuations.
Preliminary EBITDAF guidance has also been provided for the 2019 financial year. This is
based on generation returning to long term average levels and status quo assumptions
regarding divestments and investments.
2018 Outlook
$m
2019 Guidance
$m
Underlying EBITDAF 510-525 500-540
Operating Cashflow 250-280 210-250
Net interest 155-165 155-165
Depreciation & Amortisation 190-200 200-210
Infratil has indicated that confidence in outlook is positive for continued growth in dividends
per share, with potential for special dividends as development gains are realised.
Guidance is based on management’s current expectations and assumptions about the trading performance of Infratil’s investments and is subject to risks and
uncertainties, is dependent on prevailing market conditions continuing throughout the outlook period and assumes no major changes in the composition of the
Infratil investment portfolio. Trading performance and market conditions can and will change, which may materially affect the guidance set out above.
Underlying EBITDAF is a non-GAAP measure of financial performance, presented to show management’s view of the underlying business performance.
Underlying EBITDAF represents consolidated net earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, financial derivative movements, revaluations,
gains or losses on the sales of investments, and includes Infratil’s share of RetireAustralia underlying profits. Underlying profit for RetireAustralia removes
the impact of unrealised fair value movements on investment properties, impairment of property, plant and equipment, excludes one-off gains and deferred
taxation, and includes realised resale gains and realised development margins. EBITDAF includes Infratil’s share of the net surplus of businesses which are
not consolidated, which includes Canberra Data Centres, RetireAustralia and Longroad Energy.
For information contact:
Tim Brown, Tim.Brown@HRLMorrison.com
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Infratil
Future Directions
Investor Day
11 April 2018
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil plan is clear
•Extract the value from our platforms
–Renewables, eldercare and data
•Optimise the core
–Ongoing performance management and capital
management
–Core cash generating assets continue to perform an
important role in the portfolio
•Tighten up portfolio construction
–Declutter the portfolio and address complexity
–Confirm the role of all assets in the portfolio
2
Harvest development options while optimising the portfolio
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
NAV poised for strong growth given recent platform development
•Proprietary platforms are a critical indicator of future
success
–Key to generating long-term compound returns
•New renewables, eldercare, and data infrastructure
platforms firmly established and delivering
–Long-term pipeline of proprietary opportunities
–Projected capital deployment will force careful consideration of
sequencing and assessment of absolute and relative returns
•NAV poised for strong growth with accretive returns
–Existing core platforms likely to generate in excess of $1bn of
capital deployment opportunity over the next three years
–Resulting in development gains and significant growth in capital
deployed
3
Emphasis is shifting back to capital growth
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Most options are largely independent of macro considerations
•Macro environment not getting any easier
–Risk of global market dislocation over the medium term
remains real
–Competition for mid-risk growth infra assets likely to increase
–Proprietary options and home advantage should become
more valuable during the next phase
•Nevertheless, we have high-conviction across multiple
sectors
–Key investment assumptions based on powerful economic,
demographic or technological trends
–Future focus areas continue to be developed -
decarbonisation, telco networks, waste, water & healthcare)
4
Growth infrastructure differentiated from rate-exposed low risk infrastructure
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Flexible investment mandate is a competitive advantage
•Flexible mandate enables Infratil to maximise returns over the long-term
–Portfolio can accommodate development, growth infrastructure and operational assets
–Patience to hold assets through full growth cycle and maximise IRR’s
–Yield and capital growth equation can be optimisedto generate high absolute returns
•Not just about physical assets with contracted cashflows..
–“Essential services” focus enables broader range of opportunities to be addressed
–Typical base-case profile of an investment -downside protected and a stacked set of upside opportunities
5
Infratil mandate has evolved over time –Longroad the best current example
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Mandate flexibility matched by multiple levers on capital
•Current capital settings:
–Approximately $500m of cash and available facilities prior to any potential divestments
–Reliable Free Cash Flow from core assets
–Aligned JV partners with access to capital
–Long average duration for retail bonds and access to senior bank debt
–Discretion/control over timing of major project investment
–Major development options with low carry cost and lengthy exercise periods
–Ability to raise debt at project level
–Sensible DPS and distribution strategy with active buy-back programme
6
Preserving capital for proprietary pipeline and compound growth
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Portfolio construction questions and parameters
Maintaining pragmatic approach while tightening portfolio construction
•Why growth infrastructure?
–Less competed
–Requires operating capability and active management
–Stronger absolute and risk-adjusted returns
•Return target
–Excess returns across the risk spectrum
•Mandate scope
–Essential services and “ideas that matter” rather than a tight
definition of infrastructure
–Attractive risk/return characteristics
–Multiple geographies
•Role of cash generating core and yield during periods
of transition
–Retail shareholder base have always been important to debt
and equity programmes
7
Primary and Secondary Portfolio
Parameters:
Primaryportfolio parameters:
-Return targets
-Credit metrics
-Liquidity
-Mandate definitions
Secondaryportfolio parameters:
-Number of sectors
-Number of geographies
-Control versus minority positions
-Proportion of listed positions
-Proportion of pipeline to current
operating cash flows
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Cost of complexity is real
Other portfolio considerations impact overall valuation
•Portfolio is in equilibrium in terms of return, credit and
liquidity metrics, however:
–Newer platforms with limited information or near-term visibility
–Increasing proportion of assets ex-NZ
–Disparate portfolio with several less material components
•Valuation is difficult at this point in the cycle
–Reinvesting free cash flow in all key platforms
–Holding multiple long-term options
–High proportion of pipeline value to total value
•Capital growth challenges funding and communication
–Large variance between high and low-case capital
deployment scenarios
–Limited financial milestones and valuation metrics
8
TSR Outcomes:
-Over the last seven years IFT has
returned 13.3% p.a.
-19.9% p.a. for the first 4 years and
5.2% p.a. over the next 3 years
-Share price responded as Infratil was
realisinggains (Z Energy and Lumo)
-The share price has not recognized the
potential of the recent investments or
option value of multiple extensive
pipeline
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Achieving a new equilibrium with less noise
NAV growth, decluttering and conversion to cash
•Drive towards achieving independent scale within renewables, eldercare, and
data platforms:
–Valuation discounts likely to narrow as key platforms achieve independent scale
•Good performance in smaller student accommodation and PPP platforms,
although discount for adding additional sectors is real:
–Relatively small equity chequesizes
–Limited opportunities to deploy significant near-term capital
–Opportunity to tighten the sector breadth of the overall portfolio
•Opportunity to flow through development gains as special dividends
–Considering utilisingperiodic development gains to supplement shareholder distributions
9
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Being more precise on portfolio construction
10
High return development platforms supported by a cash-generating core
CORE CASH GENERATIVE ASSETS
Renewables
Platform
Emerging
Platforms
•Student
accommodation /
social infrastructure
•Telecoms and
access/transport
•Healthcare
•Decarbonisation
•Water
•Agriculture
Eldercare
Platform
Data
Infrastructure
Platform
Although the focus is
on growth, it is
important to retain a
proportion of core
infra in the portfolio
to facilitate the
model
Development
platforms are
effectively a
combination of
lower-risk free cash
flows (DMF, PPA’s,
long term contracts),
and growth
investment
All platforms
manufacture lower-
risk core assets (and
free cash flow if we
choose to restrict
future investment)
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Platform requirements
How do you qualify as an IFT platform?
•Has to be an “Idea that Matters”
•Exposure to a clear growth driver with clear
macro/industry tailwinds
•Embedded reinvestment options
•Realistic path to eventual scale (~$500m
equity value)
–Not all investments will end up in scaled
platforms
–Will look to exit positions once scale appears
difficult or unrealistic
–Will constantly look for the next future platform of
scale
11
Examples of Ideas that Matter:
-Lowering the cost of energy
-Decarbonisation
-Allowing people to retire with dignity
-Managing growing health-care costs
-Improving capacity of key transport gateways
-Repowering future public transport fleets with
EV’s
-Improving access and connectivity to high-
speed broadband
-Protecting data with secure and private
networks
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Core requirements
How do you qualify as part of the IFT Core?
•Acknowledge the difficulty in accessing high-quality infrastructure with low-risk, attractive
yield characteristics at reasonable valuations
•Any investments (existing or new) performing the role of ‘cash generating core’ will need to
demonstrate:
–stability of cash flow
–yield
–potential to scale
–clear macro / industry tailwinds (preference for GDP+ profile and built-in reinvestment options with
strong execution)
–while still being an “Idea that Matters”
12
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Group capital expenditure and investment
Continuing to capture value in existing assets and platforms
•The 2019 Outlook includes:
–Trustpowerreflects generation capex in addition
to its operational and maintenance programme
–Tiltcapex includes completion of construction of
the Salt Creek wind farm but excludes the
development of 360MW Dundonnell Wind Farm
–Wellington Airport spend includes the land-
transport hub, the onsite hotel and the internal
optimisation of the main terminal building
–NZ Bus capex includes the purchase of ~70
double decker buses and other fleet costs
–CDC reflects growth capex (construction of new data
centres), expansion capex (PODs, chillers and
generators) and maintenance capex
–RetireAustraliaprimarily relates to construction
of new units
–Longroadcapex represents Infratil’s capital
contribution to a single development project
13
Capex Guidance
2018
Outlook
$m
2019
Outlook
$m
Trustpower
25-30
40-45
Tilt Renewables
100-105
25-30
Wellington Airport
80-85
90-95
NZ Bus
20-25
65-70
CDC
30-35
50-55
RetireAustralia
35-40
65-70
Longroad
25-30
55-60
Other
10-20
25-30
Total325-370415-455
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil FY18 and FY19 guidance
Core assets and new platforms combine to enable sustained earnings growth
•Set to deliver a FY18 result at the top end of
guidance range. This excludes upside from
associates’ investment valuations that are yet to
be finalised
•Guidance for FY19 reflects:
–The sale of Trustpower’sAustralian assets (FY18
forecast contribution $27m-$29m)
–Completion of the 54MW Salt Creek wind farm
(estimated FY19 contribution A$15m-A$20m with
full production expected from July 2018)
–Trustpower reversion to long run average hydrology
and prices (FY18: was $20m-$25m above average)
–Stabilised retail performance for Perth Energy
–Strong projected growth from CDC
–Forecast gain from Longroad development
•Capital structure and confidence in outlook are
positive for continued growth in dividends per
share, with potential for special dividend as
development gains are realised
14
Guidance is based on management’s current expectations and assumptions about the trading
performance of Infratil’sinvestments and is subject to risks and uncertainties, is dependent on prevailing
market conditions continuing throughout the outlook period and assumes no major changes in the
composition of the Infratilinvestment portfolio. Trading performance and market conditions can and
will change, which may materially affect the guidance set out above.
Underlying EBITDAF is a non-GAAP measure of financial performance, presented to show management’s
view of the underlying business performance. Underlying EBITDAF represents consolidated net earnings
before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, financial derivative movements, revaluations, gains or
losses on the sales of investments, and includes Infratil’sshare of RetireAustralia’sunderlying profits.
Underlying profit for RetireAustraliaremoves the impact of unrealised fair value movements on
investment properties, impairment of property, plant and equipment, excludes one-off gains and
deferred taxation, and includes realised resale gains and realised development margins. EBITDAF
includes Infratil’s share of the net surplus of businesses which are not consolidated, which includes
Canberra Data Centres, RetireAustraliaand Longroad Energy.
Guidance2018
Outlook
$m
2019
Outlook
$m
Underlying EBITDAF
510-525500-540
OperatingCashflow
250-280210-250
NetInterest
155-165155-165
Depreciation& Amortisation
190-200200-210
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Committed to investing in ideas that matter
Willingness to invest early and redefine industries and customer experience
•Investing in growth infrastructure requires operational capability, access to capital,
jurisdictional diversification, and flexible mandates
•Why focus on ideas that matter?
–Early exposure to long term trends implies a strong capital requirement and potential for higher returns
–Growth infra is differentiated from ”bond-proxy” utility cash flows that are exposed to rising interest rates
–Ability to influence development of industry structure and future business models
–Asset management capability critical to delivering outcomes and is a barrier to entry versus more
passive capital
–Addressing social imperatives supports long-term “license to operate” and changes relationship with
regulators and politicians
–Much more powerful purpose for our employees and stakeholders
15
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Tilt Renewables
presentation for
Infratil Investor Day
11 April 2018
01
AGENDA
•Overview –portfolio and team
•Tilt Renewables differentiators
•Highlights for FY2018
•Australian NEM in transition
•Policy trends
•Market trends
•NZ -Renewable energy landscape
•Focus areas for Tilt Renewables
•We aim to be theleading renewable energy business in Australasia by:
•ensuring key stakeholder and partner relationships are fostered to enable innovative commercial and technical solutions to
market opportunities,
•leveraging our development, execution and asset management skills to enhance our existing portfolio and monetise our
development pipeline, and
•sustaining a high performance, flexible culture capable of adapting to market dynamics
•Our goal is to more than double assets under management by 2020 whilstmaintaining a flexible and diverse pipeline of opportunities
19+ years experience developing, owning and operating renewable generation assets across Australasia
Overview of Tilt Renewables
AU
NZ
582MW operational
54MW in construction
3,500MW+
2,300MW+
850MW+
350MW+
Operational
Assets
Assets under
construction
Wind
SolarStorage
Wholly owned generation
capacity
Development options
(Potential MW)
3
582 MW operational, 54 MW under construction
✓
Tilt Renewables Portfolio
4
Source: TLT Analysis
Tilt Renewables Value Proposition
Key differentiators
Demonstrated ability
to develop, execute
and fund projects
Salt Creek under construction:
54 MW
Dundonnell bid into VREAS
Other consented wind projects:
Up to 930 MW
Consented solar pipeline: Up to
470 MW
4
Experience from greenfield
through to end of life stages of
renewable projects
Developing storage /
firming capability with
technology neutral
approach
Highbury Pumped Hydro
Gas Peaking
Trading and Market Risk
Management Products
Snowtown Solar + Battery
3
Positioning for policy, market
and technologychanges
Solid balance sheet
with strong cashflow
generated from
operating assets
Prudent gearing
Portfolio debt facility
Shareholder support
Clear alternatives to
traditional PPA market
2
Flexibility to pursue growth
5
High performing
assets, revenues
contracted to strong
counterparties
1
Currently ca.98% contracted
Not rated
Baa3 / BBB-
5yr capacity factor:
-Australia 37%
-New Zealand 39%
5yr availability:
-Australia 97.0%
-New Zealand 97.5%
BBB+
Competitor Comparison
Tilt Renewables Value Proposition
plusproven capability across the asset
lifecycle
1
•Early stage site feasibility,
approvals and development
2
•Procurement, financing
and delivery
3
•Operations and commercial
management
4
•Asset portfolio optimisation
6
Source: TLT Analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
TLTPacific HydroNeoEnInfigenAGL PARF
TLT OperatingSalt CreekDundonnellOperatingConstructionCommitted
MW
Large operational base and immediate growth opportunities
✓Tilt Renewables' Australian operational wind assets have Power Purchase Agreements ("PPAs") in place with Origin Energy
comprising approximately 70% of current business revenue
✓In February 2018 Tilt Renewables entered into an agreement to sell electricity from Salt Creek Wind Farm to Meridian Energy
Australia.
✓In New Zealand, PPAs with Trustpower for all New Zealand asset production -approximately 30% of business revenue
✓The mechanics of the PPAs provide revenue protection against low spot prices, with New Zealand PPAs including a base
price referenced to futures pricing and a floor provision, should the base price fall too low
Tilt Renewables has a high level of contracted revenue, counterparties include Origin Energy, Trustpower, and Meridian Energy
Key Differentiator -PPA & Counterparty Overview
98%
84%
83%83%
82%82%82%82%82%82%82%82%
71%
20%
20%20%
6%6%6%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037
Contracted capacity
1
(%)
Origin EnergyTrustpowerMeridian
1. Capacity and contracts include Salt Creek Wind Farm
7
Source: TLT Analysis
Australia’s National Electricity Market is in transition
Market characteristics today
•Progressive retirement of 20GW coal, which must
be replaced
•Renewables /MWh costs reducing, strong and
diverse pipeline
•Options for firming including battery storage /
pumped hydro / interconnectors / gas peakers
•Dominated by black/brown coal, which is
ageing
•Low, but growing renewables penetration
(8% wind, 4% solar)
•Gas/hydro fill the firming role
•Battery storage in its infancy
Falling cost of renewable energy
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
200920122017
MW
$MWh
LCOE -Wind and Solar/ Turbine Size
WindUtility scale solarAver age rated capac ity per turbine
Ageing coal fleet in the NEM
Opportunities for Tilt Renewables
8
Source: Lazard LevelizedCost of Energy Analysis 2017
Source: AEMO
•State based schemes are targeting further
decarbonisation
•VRET 25% by 2020 / 40% by 2025
•QRET 50% by 2030
Tilt Renewables is well positioned to take advantage of Australian energy market transition
How Tilt Renewables is positioned
•Tilt Renewables has a zero emissions portfolio
•Tilt Renewables has storage and firming options
•Development approach is technology agnostic
•Has facilitated Tilt Renewables existing high level
of portfolio contracting
•Supports recontracting outcomes, and short-term
firm LGC prices
1
Tilt Renewables has balance sheet and funding flexibility to take advantage of the energy market transition
9
Policy Trends are supportive
•National Energy Guarantee –components:
•Emissions linked to Australia’s international
commitments
•Reliability standards
•Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (RET)
continues to enjoy bi-partisan support
•Confidence that scheme continues to 2030
•Dundonnell bid into the VRET auction
•Pipeline is positioned with consented wind and
solar projects across the majority of NEM states
•Quality of assets and proven track record is
attractiveto State sponsors and off-takers
Market Trends are supportive
Tilt Renewables is well positioned to take advantage of Australian energy market transition
How Tilt Renewables is positioned
•Allows TLT to access multiple offtake options to maximise
risk adjusted returns:
•Salt Creek PPA (electricity only) with Meridian
•LGC forward trades with multiple counterparties
•High credibility with key counterparties
•Trading capability -$34M LGC forward sales in place
•Tilt Renewables’ portfolio is at the forefront of this
transition
•Renewables + firming is lowest cost long term solution, as
demonstrated by recent announcements in SA
•Broad development pipeline can respond to market signals
to deliver lower cost outcomes
•Technology neutral approach
•Awareness of location and peaking effects in each market
•Renewable technology costs are rapidly falling, supporting
the transition of generation mix
•Wind and solar LRMC economics (incl. cost for firming)
improving vs gas
•Global solar LCOE costs declined 72% since 2009
•Genuine alternatives to traditional PPA market available
•Corporate PPA market (Telstra, AB Inbev, Orora)
•State based auctions (VREAS, QRET)
•Non-Tier 1 PPA market (New retailers, community buyers)
•Short-term traded market (LGC forward contracts, rolling
hedges)
•Incumbent market players transitioning away from coal
•Hazelwood shut in March 2017
•AGL announced Liddell closure in 2022
•No new investment in coal
Tilt Renewables has balance sheet and funding flexibility to take advantage of the energy market transition
2
10
New Zealand -Renewable Energy Landscape
Market Trends are supportive
•Waverley consent allows larger rotor turbines resulting in attractive
LCOE, compared to other consented North Island projects
•Options to respond to Government initiatives:
•Kaiwera Downs Wind Farm
•Mahinerangi Stage 2
•Tararua 1&2 repowering option
•Relatively stable NZ energy market
•Aluminium prices support short-term Tiwaismelter operation
•Government review of electricity pricing underway
•Labour govt. supportive of transition to zero emissions energy mix
•Demand in the North Island is growing –medium term build
opportunity
3
How Tilt Renewables is positioned
11
Focus areas for Tilt Renewables: Next 12 months
Dundonnell /
VRET process
Delivering value
from the pipeline
Storage and
firming options
•Opportunity to grow operational
portfolio by 50+%
•Bankduediligence underway
•Delivery contracts in place
•Debt funding fully in place
•Infratil equity support commitment
•Options without VREAS being
explored
•Diversityacross NEM states and
technology
•Debt/equity funding model will
depend on offtake structures
•Portfolio approach to optimise
growth
•Technology neutral approach:
batteries, pumped-hydro, gas
peakers, financial contracts
•Highbury 300MW, 1350MWh
pumped-hydro
•Snowtown 45MW solar & 20MW
battery storage
•Offtake optionality
•Building capability
12
Dundonnell / VRET process
Key project statsDundonnellWind Farm
Turbines80 wind turbinesof up to 4.2MW
Installed Capacity336 MW
Annual production~1,200 GWh lifetime average
Construction period~24 months
FundingDebtand equity funding options in place
OfftakeContract / merchant mix being optimised
MaintenanceLong term O&M contract with OEM
Target FIDQ4 2018
DDWF Indicative turbine layout
Source: Tilt Renewables
Key commercial arrangements negotiated
•Firm EPC and long-term O&M pricing
•Transmission connection option into Mortlake Power Station
•AU$600m investment
Remaining activities beforeFinal Investment Decision
•Finalisation of connection arrangements and network technical
performance standards
•Victoria government aiming to announce successful bids Q3 2018
•Investment decision Q4 2018, first generation Q1 2020
Contracting approach has flexibility
•336MW build represents a significant increase in portfolio
•Tip height amendment received in December 2017 allowing latest
technology and lower cost of energy
•Revenue contracting alternatives exist for Dundonnell
•Portion of output bid into Victorian Reverse Auction Scheme (VREAS)
•Short-term hedging opportunities in energy and LGC markets
13
Tilt Renewables has made good progress developing its
pipeline of near-term investment opportunities beyond
Dundonnell
✓Three Queensland solar projects achieved development
approval since June 2017 (420MW potential)
✓SA government $7M grant for co-located solar and battery at
Snowtown –sharing existing connection infrastructure
✓Palmer, Rye Park and Waverley wind projects all now with
planning approval
✓Pipeline size increased by circa 50%
Diverse development opportunities within the pipeline
provide a pathway for medium-term growth
•Further solar approvals being pursued in several NEM States
•Focused on maintaining a diverse range of options (spread
by state / technology / market) capable of being executed
quickly as market opportunities unfold
•Firming and storage options, including non-asset based are
being pursuedto increase offtake optionality
Delivering value from the pipeline
Other projectsTechnologyLocation
Potential
MW
SA pumpedhydro (Highbury)StorageAU-SA300
VIC wind optionsWindAU-VIC300
NSW wind optionsWindAU-NSW400
NSW solar optionsSolarAU-NSW120
SA solar options (Snowtown South)Solar/StorageAU-SA75
QLD solar optionsSolarAU-QLD350
QLD wind optionsWindAU-QLD70
Total otherdevelopment options(B)Circa 1,615
Total Pipeline Size(A+B)Circa 3,690
Overview of key development projects
14
Projects with Environmental ConsentsTechnologyLocation
Potential
MW
DundonnellWindAU-VIC336
3 x Queenslandsolar projectsSolarAU-QLD420
Rye ParkWindAU-NSW300
Palmer*WindAU-SA300
Waddi wind 105MW and solar 40MWWind/SolarAU-WA145
Snowtown North SolarSolarAU-SA45
WaverleyWindNZ-NI130
Other NZ: MahinerangiII, Kaiwera DownsWindNZ-SI400
Total projectswith environmental approvals(A)Circa 2,075
*ERD Court decision is currently under appeal
Storage and Firming Options -Highbury Pumped Hydro
Visualisation of Highbury pumped-hydro storage project
15
The existing upper storage pond at Highbury
Why Storage?
-Store wind energy at times of high production (low price)
-Release wind energy at times of high demand (high price)
-Participation in system support ancillary services market
-Enables options beyond variable volume PPA offtakes
-Participation in Cap Market
-Spot price arbitrage
-Support a commercial and industrial market entry (risk
reduction)
-Enable additional wind/solar investment in South Australia
(development pipe value)
-Additional system load will reduce curtailment –improve
existing assets
Highbury Pumped Hydro
At 300MW/1350MWh, the proposed Highbury project is perfect
scale for the Tilt Renewables assets and will deliver 3X more
capacity and store10x more energy than the HornsdaleTesla
battery
16
Co-located wind and solar options at Snowtown and
Waddi
•Co-located solar + wind + storage =
•smoother energy profile,
•lower ancillary services costs,
•higher transmission asset utilisation
•Batteries provide additional short term variability smoothing
•SA government support for Snowtown 45MW solar 20MW
battery improves economics
Source: TLT Analysis
Storage and Firming Options –Solar and Batteries
17
Summary
-Diverse operational base, strong cashflows
-Revenues highly contracted
-Immediate opportunity for significant growth
-Key market fundamentals remain positive
-Significant development pipeline
-Storage and firming options being developed
-Real alternatives to traditional PPAs for offtake
-Business model ready to TILT to secure opportunities
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INVESTOR DAY
April 10, 2018
CONFIDENTIALITY
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2
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cause substantial and irreparable competitive harm to Longroad. Any reproduction or distribution of this document, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its
contents, without the prior written consent of Longroad, is prohibited. This document shall be returned to Longroadupon request.
This document contains various estimates of financial information and valuations of securities. While all such information ispresented based on the exercise of
Longroad’sreasonable judgment, there can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate or that such valuations reflect the true fair market
value of the securities referenced. In addition, certain factual statements made herein are based on information from varioussources prepared by other parties.
While such sources are believed by Longroadto be reliable, Longroaddoes not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information.
INTRO TO LONGROAD ENERGY
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.3
•Focused on US renewables
•Founded April 2016
•Funded October 2016
•Business model and strategy focused on three things:
–Development
–Operating Assets
–Services
LONGROAD ENERGY
PARTNERS, LLC
Owners
INVESTMENT THESIS
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.4
•Significant growth in new plant build (>100 GW wind and solar by 2025)
•Deep pool of permanent equity
•Development capital more scarce
•Operating asset base growing (2023: PV > 120 GW, WIND > 120 GW)
•Operating asset turnover constant
•Stay close to the assets
•Keep it lean
LONGROAD TODAY
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.5
Owned by LEH
684 MW
386 MW
WIND
298 MW
SOLAR
Near Term
Development
1,118 MW
238 MW
WIND
880 MW
SOLAR
Development
Pipeline
~6.7 GW
Services
1,236 MW
884 MW
WIND
352 MW
SOLAR
Employees
74
Development
16
Services
52
Back-office
6
DevelopmentOperating AssetsServices
US MARKET SUMMARY
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.6
Headwinds
•Tax reform
•Solar trade case
Neutral
•Paris Agreement withdrawal
•Clean Power Plan revocation
•Grid resiliency
•Steel and aluminum tariffs
Tailwinds
•Continued declining
production costs of wind and
solar
•Coal retirements continuing
•Corporate demand
•Municipalities demand
•Utility demand
EVEN WITH SHORT TERM UNCERTAINTY, RENEWABLE DEPLOYMENTS ARE STRONG
CHALLENGES
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.7
•35% reduced to 21%, potentially decreasing tax equity
supply and challenging economics
•Wind hurt more than solar
Tax Reform
•POTUS decision 1/22/2018 30% import tariff on solar
cells and panels
•Longroad procured 880 MW of exempt solar panels from
First Solar to preserve near term pipeline
•Significant execution advantage
Solar Trade
Case
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.8
Corporate Office
LONGROAD –18 MONTHS AGO
VESTAS PTC QUALIFIED COMPONENTS
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.9
•Longroad qualified enough components to build out ~600 MW
•100% Production Tax Credit (PTC) value applies so long as operational by end of 2020
•Expect to deploy 238 MW at Rio Wind in near term
•Actively developing another 200 MW for 2019
•Remaining components being evaluated for certain repowering opportunities on our current
ownership portfolio as well as new M&A deals
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.10
As of March 2018/Wind MW in AC and Solar in DC
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
Rio Wind
238 MW
Phoebe Solar
315 MW
Foxhound Solar
100 MW
Seven Bridges
150 MW
DEVELOPMENT MARGINS
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.11
•Highly dependent on project specifics; very little public disclosure
•Key drivers: revenue contract term and credit quality, equipment vendors (Tier 1 vs. others),
post-contract revenue assumptions
•Levered project returns of 15-20% selling to buyers at 10% could earn development margins:
–Solar: range from $100 -$400/kWac
–Wind: range from $50 -$300/kW
•Typical wind project buyers use higher cap rates than solar project buyers, reflecting higher
resource and operating risk
PHOEBE SOLAR
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.12
•315 MWdcnew build solar project in Texas
•Financial closing expected 2Q2018
•12-year revenue agreement in place
•Fully-financed with construction and term lenders plus tax equity
•EPC and panel supply by First Solar
•Commercial operation expected in late 2019
•Longroad likely to monetize its interest at financial closing
RIO WIND
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.13
•238 MW new build wind project in south Texas
•Financial closing expected 2Q2018
•15-year revenue agreement in place at closing
•Fully-financed with construction and term lenders plus tax equity
•Vestas turbine technology with EPC by Mortenson
•Commercial operation expected in June 2019
•Longroad to monetize its interest either during construction or at commercial operations
GE REPOWERING
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.14
•Longroad qualified repowering components for ~200 MW GE 1.5 technology
•80% PTC value applies so long as operational by end of 2021
•Ability to raise new tax equity and re-qualify project’s tax benefits
•US: 14.5 GW of pre-2011 GE 1.5 technology
•Prioritized most executable 1.5 GW
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.15
As of March 2018/Wind MW in AC and Solar in DC
OPERATING ASSETS AND SERVICES
Federal Street
298 MW
Milford Wind
306 MW
MN Wind
80 MW
Third Party
Services
498 MW wind
54 MW solar
(not shown)
+
=
1,236 MW
Remote Operations Center
Portland, Maine
FEDERAL STREET SOLAR
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.16
•14 portfolios of operating distributed generation solar projects
•297 MW at 435 individual projects
•~15 years average remaining contracted revenue life
•Longroad acquired on balance sheet in 4Q2017
•Recapitalization closed in 1Q2018 resulting in re-cycling of capital and profit
•100% ownership
•Asset management and operations
•Remaining option value in lessor buyouts, technical, and operational improvements
MINNESOTA WIND
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.17
•80 MW operating wind farms
•Long term contracts with Xcel Energy
•Candidates for repowering using Vestas technology
•Investment case: acceptable returns through long term ownership with upside in repowering
•Asset management and operations
MILFORD WIND
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.18
•Two operating wind farms –306 MW total
•Long term contracts with Southern California Public Power Authority
•Asset management and operations
•Investment case: low purchase price with upside in longer term residual value and expansions
COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.19
LONGROAD TODAY
•Flexible source of capital allows diversified approach to market
•Significant progress on all three fronts: development, operating assets, and
services
•Key staff in place
•Market continues to grow but not without some hurdles
•Well positioned for continued growth through development pipeline, PTC
component, and solar panel purchases
THANK YOU
---
InfratilInvestor Day
2018
›CDC Overview
›What is the CDC Ecosystem?
›Key Achievements in FY2018
›Market Observations
›What is Cloud Computing?
Agenda
›What are the main elements of the Microsoft
partnership?
›Forecast Growth
›How is CDC going to continue growing?
›Conclusion
Overview
Market Leader
›CDC operates 2 accredited and connected
Data Centre campuses in Canberra
providing highly secure outsourced co-
location Data Centre services to Australian
Government entities and third party
service providers
›39MW of installed capacity with a further
21MW due for completion this year
›CDC is the largest ownerand operatorof
premium data centresand critical
infrastructure in Australia and
New Zealand
›Proven provider, offering world class
security, deep resilience whilst promising
data sovereignty along with industry
leading operating metrics
CDC delivers National
Critical Infrastructure
‘NCI’ to the whole of
Australia
1
Fyshwick
Hume
Brisbane
Sydney
Canberra
Melbourne
Capital city ofAustralia
Overview
CDC has an advantaged marketposition
›CDC is well positioned to capitaliseon theexpected strong market growth
›CDC established its reputation by developinga world class adaptable datacentre design that fits
unique Government requirements
›Today CDC operates a powerful ecosystem with dozens of Government agencies and third parties
servicing Government
›The CDC ecosystemdelivers incrementalcustomer value with each additional client
›Security cleared personnel
CDC provides highlysecure
outsourced data centre
services to the Australian
Federal,
State and LocalGovernment
along
withtheir keymanaged
serviceproviders
2
Overview
Operating in a sector withstrong demandtailwinds
CDC is benefiting from massive data processing and storagegrowth driven by 4 significant trends:
1.Rapid cloud adoption
2.Government new services and digitisation
3.Cyber risk and importance of data sovereignty
4.Data expansion and the outsourcing of ICTservices
CDC’s investment value is
propelled by supplying
industry leading products in
to a high growth market that
rewards CDC’s flexibility
3
Overview
Tangible growth pipeline
Numerous growth opportunities are available to CDC:
›Continued focus on major clients with mission-critical applications
›Utilisation of existing capacity at Fyshwick and Hume requiring limited incremental capital
›Fyshwick 2 (21 MW data centre) due to be completed Oct/Nov 2018
›30,000m
2
+ site secured in Hume for further developments –capable of supporting a 50MW+ facility
›Expansion of service offerings to support customer ICT objectives
CDC has a strategy to
continue delivering
innovative new products to a
market that values security,
resilience and data
sovereignty
4
What is the CDC ecosystem?
The CDC ecosystem enables
customers to connect with
one another and trusted
suppliers securely within the
data centre
The CDC ecosystem
continues getting stronger,
more resilient and more
secure as it grows
Data has its own gravity
Flexibility and connectivity is
key
5
Very strong year in
FY2018
The business is better
positioned for the future
than ever before
Fyshwick 2
Progress
6
Growing —Year on year EBITDA run rate growth up ~35%, delivering a contracted run rate at 31
March 2018 of $69mand expect to secure growth of a further ~2.0MWto be delivered in the next
quarter
Strengthening —Expanded the ecosystem to include Microsoft and 4 of the 5 certified protected
cloud providers. Whole of portfolio WALE (Weighted Average Lease Expiry) of 4.2 years, and 10.9
years with options
Financing—Refinanced debt facilities —expanded limits from $435m with expiries in 2019 & 2021 to
$610m limit expiring in 2023 (A$460m) and 2025 (A$150m). No dividends were paid
Positioning—CDC has a strong pipeline of opportunities from new and existing clients
Building—Construction is under way at Fyshwick 2 and on track to welcome its first customer by the
end of 2018
Preparing—CDC has secured more land at Hume for a future development beyond Fyshwick 2
Key Achievements in FY2018
CDC’s addressable
market is growing rapidly
and opportunities to invest
in the data centresector
are highly sought after
7
Hyperscale —Unprecedented demand, providers are growing revenues at 50%+ annually and moving
to a partnership model to secure capacity in Australia, pricing is competitive but sustainable
Metronode—Purchase by Equinix recorded in December 2017 with very strong valuation metrics of
>21 x run rate EBITDA, a number of bidders had to restructure bids to meet FIRB requirements
Listed entities—Recording significant revenue and EBITDA growth, most companies are trading at
an Enterprise Value of 19-23x forecast EBITDA
Legal Environment—New National Critical Infrastructure legislation introduced in Australia
Federal Government—Agenda is still driven by technical capability whilst cyber security and data
sovereignty issues follow closely behind
Market Observations
What are the main elements of the
Microsoft partnership?
CDC have embarked on a
multilayer, strategic relationship with
Microsoft
There are 44 Microsoft Azure
regions in 140 data centres
Information security –Unclassified
and Protected
Physical security –
SCEC Zone 4
Resilience
Strategic for CDC
›Increases the CDC ecosystem
›Leading global hyper scale operator
›Significant growth opportunity beyond the initial
deployment
›Local momentum, brings the cloud to Canberra
›Opening up CDC’s addressable market to
include National Critical Infrastructure sectors
Strategic for Microsoft
›Designed for Government mission-critical
applications but equally attractive to other
organisations operating Critical
Infrastructure
›ICON connectivity
›Assured ownership/security/resilience
›2 regions in close proximity –high
availability
›First mover advantage
Source: Microsoft
8
Microsoft define cloud
computing as “the delivery of
computing services –
servers, storage, databases,
networking, software,
analytics and more –over
the internet (“the cloud”)”
What is Cloud Computing?
9
Cloud Growth
›Cloud is a buzzword indicative of an evolving approach to how the internet is used rather than a
technology in itself
›Three broad categories of cloud services; Software as a Service (SaaS) –‘consume it’, Platform as a
Service (PaaS) –‘build on it’ and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) –‘migrate to it’
›Top benefits of cloud; cost, speed, scalability, productivity, performance and reliability
›Microsoft Azure is a comprehensive set of cloud services that developers and IT professionals use to
build, deploy and manage applications through a network of data centres
›Cloud computing enables growth in differing ways; private, public and hybrid clouds
›Research firm Canalyspredicts the cloud computing market is forecast to grow to US$74.7 billion in
2018, up nearly 36 percent from 2017
In January 2018 Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella was quoted as “The
56 percent year-over-year growth in commercial
cloud revenue —with broad-based growth across geographic
markets and industry segments —is fuelled by customer and
partner success.”
3 April 2018 –Microsoft Partnership Launch
Media Headlines
“Microsoft launches its Canberra salvo in cloud wars with
AWS”
AFR, 3 April 2018
10
“Microsoft launches Azure cloud regions in Canberra”
CRN, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft switches on Azure in Canberra –
targets government, critical infrastructure”
ITNews, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft cloud targets critical government
business in Canberra”
Sydney Morning Herald, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft’s Australian cloud gets approved to host protected
government data”
CRN, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft steps up Govt play with Canberra Azure regions
launch . The new regions are limited to Australian and New
Zealand Government customers”
AFNnet, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft announces the mission-critical cloud
for Australia”
ITWire, 3 April 2018
“ASD certifies first ‘hyperscale’ data service for Protected
classification”
The Mandarin, 3 April 2018
“Microsoft offers pathway to cloud for govt’s
mission-critical apps. Targets government with new ultra-
secure cloud regions”
ComputerWorld, 3 April 2018
Focusing on Mission-Critical Applications
A mission critical application is essential to the survival of a business or organisation.
Failure or interruption would significantly disrupt their business operations.
11
Characteristics of Mission-
Critical Applications
Sectors of National
Critical
Infrastructure
Disaster resilience
Reliable high performance
Resilient, low-latency networking
Cybersecurity
Managed change
Compliance
Supply chain integrity
Complex system integration
Realtime data ingestion
High availability
Defence& National Security
Government
Energy
Health
Banking
Transport
Food
Communications
Space
Public Safety
12
How Mission-Critical Cloud brings value to the CDC ecosystem
Compliance
Manage Unclassified and
Protected data operating within
Australian-owned, Secret-
accredited facilities that are
operated by security cleared
personnel
Hybrid Flexibility
Co-locate customer legacy
or specialized systems
beside Azure with direct high
performance connectivity for
most mission-critical
workloads
Connectivity
Connect via ExpressRoute
and the Australian
Government’s ICON network
to Azure or deploy client
specific specialized network
connectivity
Resilience
The 2 Azure regions in
Canberra deliver unmatched
high availability and disaster
resilience with facilities
designed for National Critical
Infrastructure
Restricted Community
Access by invite or application
only for Australia & New
Zealand Government and
critical infrastructure sectors
along with their suppliers
Forecast Growth
CDC has an exciting
pipeline of diverse
opportunities with new and
existing clients
Off of an excellent FY2018
result, CDC’s growth rate is
expected to accelerate
during FY2019
Forecasting 20% YoY EBITDA run rate growth in
FY2019 from:
›Cloud
›Non-organic expansion from new agencies
›Organic growth from existing customers
›Expansion of managed services and by providing
connectivity options
Before factoring in:
›Acquisitions
›Geographical expansion
›Large Government tenders anticipated
›Co-location by National Critical Infrastructure
sectors
In the next 12 months:
›CAPEX investment of $100m
›Deliver Fyshwick 2 (+21MW)
›Hume 4 under construction
13
How is CDC going to
continue growing?
Fyshwick 2
›On track and on budget 21MW facility
›1,500m
2
of Zone 4 office space
›Stage 1 to be completed in Oct/Nov 2018
›Final stage to be completed by May 2019
›Discussing or negotiating up to 10MW
capacity today, well ahead of opening
Hume 4
›CDC has exchanged on a parcel of land
›30,000m
2
+ site secured
›50MW+ facility is possible
›Potential to start development mid 2018 with
a 12 month construction schedule
›Discussing commitments of up to 5MW
The CDC data centre design is
always evolving and becoming
more flexible in order to meet
customers changing requirements
and help futureproof the business
in a dynamic market
Fyshwick2
Design
14
Conclusion
CDC is well positioned to
continue growing and
provide the essential
services to meet customer
requirements
Ecosystem continues to get stronger with each client
Financing and land has been secured for medium term business growth
CDC is a valued advisor and solution partner with deep customer relationships
Hume 4 Concept
Design
Exciting future in a fast growth market
15
Questions?
---
Infratil Investor Day
April 2018
Overview
Investment
thesis
Core business
execution and
performance
Growing business
and pipeline of
opportunities
2
Retirement accommodation demand and dynamics
Millions
–
population over 65
2016 2025 2035 2045 2055
Australians over 65 years ^~ (LHS)
RV residents at 5.7% penetration * (RHS)
RV residents at 7.5% penetration * (RHS)
Ageing population
supports greater
demand
•Over the next 30 years,
Australians aged over 65
years is projected to double
•The Property Council of
Australia estimates older
Australians seeking specialist
retirement accommodation
will increase from 5.7% to
7.5% by 2025.
The rapidly ageing population, combined with new
Federal Government policy direction around the delivery
of care creates a significant market opportunity for high
quality retirement living, with a built in continuum of care
Care policy changes
supports higher
demand
•Moving towards consumer
directed care
•Disconnecting care
funding from
accommodation type
•Moving away from
government funded care,
and encouraging co-
funding of care
^ ABS July Census
~ Treasury 2015 intergenerational report
# Property Council of Australia – National Overview of the
Retirement Sector
3
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0
2
4
6
8
10
Millions
–
RV residents
Aus
•Purpose-built communities with
Independent Living Units (ILU) and
Care Apartments (CA). Integrated
continuum of care offering
•Meet changing and escalating needs
of older customers, as and when
required
•Meet customer preferences for
location, amenity and built form
•Care services that meet the needs of
older Australians
•Wellness activities and services to
encourage broader wellbeing
•Develop pathways to assist our
residents in funding their care
•Improve valuations and lower
vacancy rates
•Refurbish and reinstate to facilitate
faster stock turnover
•Reinvest in facilities to invest in
Deferred Management Fee (DMF)
•Standardise how we do business
•New contract terms in place
Our strategic vision set post acquisition remains unchanged
STRATEGIC
VISION
Core Focus – Existing portfolio
Improve existing returns
Drive growth
Drive growth & invest in DMF
Our vision is to be the recognised leader in customer-centric retirement communities and
care services to make us the first choice of older Australians and their families.
Growing focus – Development Growing focus – Care
4
RetireAustralia – Future (2021) consistent focus since 2016
5
RetireAustralia – End FY18 achievements
6
Core business execution
Financial drivers of existing resales Outcomes FY16-FY18
Drive entry
price growth
16.3%
Increase average
age
1% to 80.6 years
Speed to market
reinstate and refurb
20%
Financial innovation *
Introduced NZ based
contract model
Retirement Living
the experience *
Customer centric
vision and approach
Closely monitoring three measurable indicators
of RetireAustralia’s core business success
7
* More to come in FY19 and beyond
Industry in the spotlight
•In June 2017, Fairfax and ABC published an investigation into Aveo
•Several months of negative media coverage about the retirement village industry in Australia
“It’s like a financial sinkhole. Once you’re
in, it’s very hard to get out.”
“Bleed them dry until they die”
“A ‘get poor quick’ scheme”
8
Operator impact – resales downturn, recovery underway
Publicly owned operators have reported a downturn in enquiry and sales and
an increase in deposit fallovers, resulting in higher vacancy rates.
Key industry player sales results to prior comparable period (PCP)
*2017 PwC/ Property Council Retirement Census
#
Aveo, Stockland and Lendlease Half year result FY18
^ AMR Reputation study: Proportion of over 55s rating retirement industry reputation as neutral or positive
Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17
(post sector coverage)
Perception of retirement living improving^
9
73%
44%
54%
Retirement industry rallies – opportunity to reset for the future
Retirement Living Council developed an Eight
Point Plan
•Consistent national
legislation
•Better contracts
•Legal advice
•Improved training for VMs
•Village accreditation
•Code of conduct
•Dispute resolution
•Consult with resident
associations
42 operators, including RA, committed to plan
1. Support nationally consistent retirement village legislation and contracts.
2. Ensure there are transparent and easy-to-understand descriptions in
contracts of entry pricing, ongoing service fees, reinstatement costs, and
departure fees and payments, so residents have certainty about the costs
associated with living in a retirement village.
3. Encourage all potential residents to seek independent legal advice before
signing a contract, and work together with government and the legal
profession to make this happen. We will also encourage potential residents
to share this information with family members and trusted advisers.
4. Improve training and professional support for village managers, sales people
and other staff who engage directly with current and potential residents.
5. Commit to improve industry village accreditation standards and coverage,
and support government initiatives to make accreditation a mandatory
requirement for operating a village.
6. Work with the Australian Retirement Village Residents Association to
implement an Industry Code of Conduct to set and maintain high standards
about the marketing and operation of villages, including dispute
management procedures for operators and residents.
7. Commit to the establishment of an efficient and cost-effective government-
backed independent dispute resolution process, such as an Ombudsman or
Advocate, for disputes that are unable to be solved at a village level.
8. Maintain and strengthen the relationship between industry and the
Australian Retirement Village Residents Associations, to make sure resident
issues are clearly identified and addressed.
10
Review of capital structure to support growth
Since acquisition there had been
no review of the capital structure
•Brownfield development and
site acquisitions have been
equity funded
•Home care business will be
100% equity funded
•Capital structure review was
completed to ensure we have
the right capital structure to
support our growth strategies.
RA strategies
Robust profitability
Development pipeline
Integration of care
People and performance
Delivering on our promises
Initial capital structure
December 2014
Final capital structure
March 2018
$250m core business
$100m development
$350m total
$120m core business
$230m development
$350m total
11
Development pipeline being secured and delivered in FY18
•3 Brownfield projects were completed
•2 Brownfield projects under construction
•All brownfield village expansions designs refined
•2 Greenfield development projects achieved
development approval with 1 more imminent
•3 Greenfield developments in development
planning and approval processes
12
Brownfield villages
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Beyond
Village Product Type
Delivery stages
Wood Glen Independent
Living Units
Independent
Living Apartments
11
-
-
24
-
34
-
-
-
-
Glengara Care Apartments
- 70 - - -
Forresters
Beach
Care Apartments
- - - 75 -
Tarragal Glen Care Apartments
- - - - 50
Total units delivered 11 94 34 75 50
Medium term development pipeline – delivering 200 per annum*
Green field villages
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Beyond
Village Product Type
Delivery stages
Burleigh Golf
Club
Independent
Living Apartments
Care Apartments
-
-
44
-
62
-
39
32
-
-
Lutwyche
(Fancutts)
Independent
Living Apartments
Care Apartments
-
-
72
26
-
-
63
-
48
9
Tarragindi
Bowls Club
Independent
Living Apartments
- - 94 - -
Ashgrove Golf
Club
Independent
Living Apartments
Care Apartments
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
118
31
Lane Cove Independent
Living Apartments
Care Apartments
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
34
Total units delivered 142 156 134 290
Total development pipeline FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Beyond
Total units
delivered
Mix of ILU and CA
11 236 190 209 340
13
* With long term target of 300 per annum
#Note: the development pipeline target of 1,100 by FY18 was achieved and includes 986
future delivery together with the previously delivered 152 units delivered in FY17 / FY18
Regulated by the Retirement Village
Act
–DMF model for accommodation provision (but no
double DMF for transferring residents)
–Village levies meet base maintenance and
services on a cost-recovery basis
–Care needs met in the same way they would be in
the home - mix of user pays and Home Care
Government funding.
–No pooling of care revenues or psuedo insurance
scheme
What are Care Apartments?
–Transitioning from the traditional Serviced
Apartment offering (which is primarily domiciliary
services) to a “private aged care” offering which
expands the service offering to include assistance
with daily activities of life through to end of life care,
but importantly NOT within a RAC/Nursing Home
“institution”
Developing the care continuum the RetireAustralia way
Built form
–40 – 45 m2 apartments
–Communal facilities,
dining
–Wellness activities
–Built to Class 9C Code in
preparation for inevitable
RAC deregulation
–Liveable housing guideline
standards
–Sterling University
accreditation for cognitive
impairment
14
RetireAustralia Care
Australia’s care funding
model is changing
•Australia is moving to consumer
directed care
•Home care has already
transitioned
•Quality and reporting framework
across home care and
residential aged care is being
standardised from July 2018
•Government signaling
deregulation of residential aged
care as the government moves
toward a single funding
framework
•Decoupling funding of care from
accommodation
RA’s enhanced care services have been rolled out to Central Coast villages.
Planned roll out to Sydney and Adelaide FY19
15
RetireAustralia Care – positioned well for changing funding model
•Merge home support and home care package
funding programs
•Higher level packages to meet higher care in
the home
•Level 5+ home care package introduced
providing an alternative to residential care
(indicative estimate ~$63,000 per person pa)
Short term
Medium
term
Longer term
beyond
FY22
Expand number of home care packages; 90,000
at present to around 140,000 by 2021–22
A single aged care system that removes
distinction between care at home and residential
care – decoupling the consumers
accommodation setting from any available
funding of their care needs.
RetireAustralia’s progress
•Transitioning existing portfolio of more
than 400 serviced apartments to care
apartments
•Approved home care provider status
achieved and commenced delivery FY18
•Staged rollout of home care business
model commenced with Home care
accessible to more than 1,500 residents at
EOFY18
•Rolling out home care to a further 1,800
residents during FY19
•Planning for care roll out to all existing
broad acre villages by FY20
•Development pipeline integrating
continuum of care.
16
Anticipated Australian Government Policy reforms
Robust
operations
and resales
2 urban villages under construction
and continue to build
development pipeline 200-300 pa
Existing portfolio of broad acre
villages aligned to our long term
strategy
---
Infratil
Governance
11 April 2018
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil’sGovernance
•Infratil’s 6 directors. Between 2 and 12 years experience in the role
2
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil’sGovernance: Where it’s the same and where it differs
•Infratil management contract with H.R.L. Morrison & Co frames Board-Management interactions
–Investments and divestments approved by the Board
–Capital management, capital structure, risk appetite/management are approved by the Board
–Portfolio strategy is approved by the Board
–Governance appointments are approved by the Board
3
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil’sGovernance
•The Board recognisesthat the interests of the Manager and the interests of Infratil shareholders
have the potential to conflict
–Board must be aware of and assess potential conflicts in relation to strategies and Manager
revenues
–Monitoring the performance of the Manager and the Manager’s compliance with the management
agreement
–Board review includes focus on independence, and management of conflicts within the context of
the management agreement and evolution of the MCO business
•2018 review raised no material concerns. Encouraged by establishment of a formal Board
sub-committee to focus on management agreement and conflict issues
–Occasional reviews are undertaken of the management agreement (including costs)
•2017 review found that the terms and conditions of the fees are fair to the shareholders of Infratil
–Board has the “nuclear option” of calling quits on the management agreement
4
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Infratil’sGovernance
•Conflicts with MCO clients –deal allocation
–Infratil has used investment joint ventures for many years and expects to continue to do so
•The Board encourages MCO to find aligned parties with which to co-invest
–Success of the MCO business should be a win win for both Manager and Infratil
–The Board is working on a transparent deal allocation process with Manager so that the Board
sees all origination opportunites that fit with the invesment strategy and has a clear right to invest
in them
5
---
1. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Infratil Investor Day | 11 April 2018
2. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Trustpower re-positioning post demerger complete
•A New Zealand focused multi-product platform with scale and growth potential
•Divestment of GSP Energy Australian Hydro assets adds value and tightens focus
•Completion of King Country Energy take over with King Country Electric Power Trust allows consolidation and synergy realisation
•Tauranga Energy Consumer Trust debate resolved
•We are well positioned in an uncertain world
3. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Trustpower’s strategy –to create executable options driving
shareholder returns
Bundling Energy and
Telco
Generation Portfolio
Performance
Maximising
Electricity Value
Identifying New
Markets
Driving action based
on data, analytics and
insight.
Meeting our
customers’ needs.
Strong, positive
relationships
Lean, agile, scalable
technology platforms
and processes.
Open culture
with a collective
learning focus.
Strategic
Pillars
Strategic Capabilities
Values
PASSIONRESPECTINTEGRITY
INNOVATION
DELIVERYEMPOWER
To deliver
a total
shareholder
return (TSR) in
the top
quartile of the
NZX.
Shareholder
Value
Generation portfolio performance
5. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Generation volume well above
long run average, however return
to average would out perform
FY14 –FY16
FY18 Generation volume –drives performance
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
GWh
Generation volume
Total NI (Excl KCE)Total SIKCE
6. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Wholesale price and volume risk management –delivers
sustainable earnings
Well positioned for the start of
winter 2017
•Geographically distributed
generation
•Strong generation throughoutthe
year in response to high spot
prices
•Use of hedging instruments to
balance portfolio for the 2018
winter limits downside
•Lakes have largely recovered,
retaining upside opportunity
Peter C-original graph from
James T I think
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Pri ce ($/MWh)Storage (GWh)
Trustpower Controlled Storage
Total StorageMean StorageBenmore Daily Average Price
Controlled storage = Cobb, Coleridge and Waipori
7. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
•Emphasis on health & safety, dam/civil safety and maintaining our licence to operate and compliance projects
•Sharper focus on enhancement and incremental growth to create earnings uplift
•Improving asset management maturity –more predictive and preventative focus for long term
Generation performance focus
Matahina Station (In top 5 highest value in portfolio):
•Identified system health & safety and reliability risks
•Fit for purpose solution –‘second hand’ 56MVA
transformer purchased and refurbished
•Improved system availability and reliability
•Reduced health & safety risk
Installed in final location in switchyard
Transformer lifted onto trailer for short journey to switchyard
Bundling energy and
telecommunications
9. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Focus on execution of proven products with increasing
customer acceptance
Current connections
Comment
•2/3rds of all new customers are taking 2 or more products
•We continue to see strong telecommunications growth
and we are creating a diverse and resilient customer base
•We created a new bundled category and now others are
attempting to follow
Over 100,000 customers
have more than one product
273,000 electricity
38,000 gas
88,000 telco
24%
32%
44%
TOTAL CUSTOMERS BY
REGION
Bay of PlentyMetroRegional
10. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Now the leading multiproduct business –differentiates
from competition
Focused cross sell and retention in FY18
•Over 3,000 existing energy customers added Telco
•1,200 electricity customers added gas
•5,600 customers upgraded from DSL to Fibre
Targeted acquisition
•Growth coming from the metros creating a more
diverse and resilient customer base
•Targeted outbound campaigns are seeing 80% of new
customers taking two or more products
22%
46%
32%
BUNDLED CUSTOMERS BY
REGION
Bay of PlentyMetroRegional
21%
40%
11%
28%
BUNDLE CUSTOMERS BY
TENURE
Less than 1 Year1-3 Years
3-5 Years> 5 Years
11. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Value based offers outperform discounting
Acquisition incentive costs aligned to cost of discounts or cash
incentives, however value based offers outperform:
•Better sales conversion and lower sales leakage
•Lower churn and lower credit risk
•Higher energy consumption and larger data plans driving higher
margin per customer
Maximising electricity value
13. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Electricity segment –Demonstrates diversity & tenure
Consumer Market
Electricity only
•Electricity segment remains highly competitive with
consolidation and failures likely
•Balanced portfolio across Commercial, Industrial,
Government and Consumer
•Opportunities in new energy and emerging technology
•Cross sell within the Consumer segment is moving
customers out of this category
Comment
•Electricity only customer base biased away from the
metros
•Around 60% of customers have 5+ years tenure
Commercial and Industrial market
Comment
•Diverse customer base, typical contract term 2-3 years
•Average tenure over 7 years, supply relationships with some
of New Zealand’s most recognised corporates for over 15
years
•Profitable and sustainable circa 1,700GWhrs/pa
25%
19%
56%
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMER BASE
BY REGION
Bay of PlentyMetroRegional
Meeting our customer needs
15. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Focus on efficiency, automation and digital solutions
•Increaseinthenumbersofproductssuppliedand
associatedcustomercontactsisoffsetbythemigration
ofcustomerstononstaffedchannels,leadingtolower
staffnumbers
•Productivityofourstaffedworkforcehasincreasedfrom
1contactcentreemployeeservicing2,163productsto
nowservicing2,515products
16. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
•45.7%ofallcustomercontactsarenow
servicedwithouthumanintervention
•Chatbotreceivingcustomersatisfactionratings
onparwithanagent
•TrustpowerAppreleasedwith29,000
interactionstodateandachievinghigh
satisfaction&engagementrates
•Staffedchannelsarefocussedonpositively
impactingchurnthroughdeliveringhighquality
serviceinthemomentsthatmatter
Automation providing customers with choice
Growth and industry overview
18. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
TECT Proposal withdrawn
•The trustees of the Tauranga Energy Consumer Trust ("TECT") announced, following consultation, they will not be proceeding further with their proposal
announced on 25 January 2018
•Under that proposal, the trustees proposed to move all the assets of TECT into a separate charitable trust (and wind up TECT), and to cease payments
of the annual TECT cheque to Trustpower's electricity customers in the Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty region from 2023 onwards
•The effect of this announcement is that the status quo, and the payment of TECT cheques, will continue
•We do not expect trustees to revisit this proposal
Evolution of TECT process
19. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Low emissions economy
•Trustpower supports and is well placed to contribute to the transition to 100% renewable electricityby 2035
Electricity price review
•The current market structure functions well. The focus should be on barriers for
▪transition to a low emission economy; and emergence and growth of new technologies
•The review is also a valuable opportunity to fine-tune industry governance:
▪In the generation and retail sector, we think the focus should be on promoting competition, and not on ex-post assessments of overall investment
efficiency
▪In the lines sector, the focus should be on delivering the lowest possible prices for consumers while delivering a reliable service, fit for the modern
economy
Regulatory frameworks for telecommunications and gas
•We would like to see similar issues regulated with consistent approvals across the electricity, gas and telecommunications sectors
•Areviewofindustryself-governanceintelecommunicationsandgas,toacceleratetheintroductionofpro-consumer(particularlymassmarket)andpro-
competitivemeasures.Weareparticularlyinterestedinaccesstomobilenetworks
Key regulatory issues
20. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Trustpower is well positioned to capitalise on emerging market opportunities
•The joint KCE takeover offer by Trustpower and the King Country Electric Power Trust (KCEPT) was successful. Trustpower and
KCEPT are now working together to achieve synergies, primarily through the sale of the KCE retail customers to Trustpower. This
sale has been completed and the transfer of customers is underway
•The GSP Energy sale is complete with a sale price of AUD168 million compared to AUD72 million purchase price (including two
small wind farms now owned by Tilt Renewables) in 2014
•Following the sale of GSP and the takeover of KCE, Trustpower will be well positioned to participate in further industry consolidation
•Trustpower currently has undrawn committed bank facilities of around $180 million and is towards the bottom of its leverage targets
giving options for capital deployment
Industry consolidation
21. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
•Trustpower repositioned as a New Zealand focused multi-product platform
•Multi-product platform delivering for customers and shareholders
•Well positioned in an uncertain and changing world for further convergence with proven integration capability
In summary
22. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
Disclaimer
Whileallreasonablecarehasbeentakeninthepreparationofthispresentation,TrustpowerLimitedanditsrelatedentities,directors,officersandemployees(collectively
"Trustpower")donotaccept,andexpresslydisclaim,anyliabilitywhatsoever(includingfornegligence)foranylosshowsoeverarisingfromanyuseofthispresentation
oritscontents.Norepresentationorwarranty,expressedorimplied,ismadeastotheaccuracy,completenessorthoroughnessofthecontentoftheinformation.All
informationincludedinthispresentationisprovidedasatthedateofthispresentation.ExceptasrequiredbylaworNZXlistingrules,Trustpowerisnotobligedtoupdate
thispresentationafteritsrelease,evenifthingschangematerially.
Thereadershouldconsultwithitsownlegal,tax,investmentoraccountingadvisersastotheaccuracyandapplicationoftheinformationcontainedhereinandshould
conductitsownduediligenceandotherenquiriesinrelationtosuchinformation.TheinformationinthispresentationhasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedbyTrustpower.
Someoftheinformationsetoutinthepresentationrelatestofuturematters,thataresubjecttoanumberofrisksanduncertainties(manyofwhicharebeyondthecontrol
ofTrustpower),whichmaycausetheactualresults,performanceorachievementsofTrustpowerortheTrustpowerGrouptobemateriallydifferentfromthefuture
resultssetoutinthepresentation.Theinclusionofforward-lookinginformationshouldnotberegardedasarepresentationorwarrantybyTrustpoweroranyother
personthatthoseforward-lookingstatementswillbeachievedorthattheassumptionsunderlyinganyforward-lookingstatementswillinfactbecorrect.
Thispresentationmaycontainanumberofnon-GAAPfinancialmeasures.BecausetheyarenotdefinedbyGAAPorIFRS,theyshouldnotbeconsideredinisolation
from,orconstruedasanalternativeto,otherfinancialmeasuresdeterminedinaccordancewithGAAP.AlthoughTrustpowerbelievestheyprovideusefulinformationin
measuringthefinancialperformanceoftheTrustpowerGroup,readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonanynon-GAAPfinancialmeasures.
Thispresentationisforgeneralinformationpurposesonlyanddoesnotconstituteinvestmentadviceoranoffer,inducement,invitationorrecommendationinrespectof
Trustpowersecurities.Thereadershouldnotethat,inprovidingthispresentation,Trustpowerhasnotconsideredtheobjectives,financialpositionorneedsofthereader.
Thereadershouldobtainandrelyonitsownprofessionaladvicefromitslegal,tax,investment,accountingandotherprofessionaladvisersinrespectofthereader’s
objectives,financialpositionorneeds
Thank You
Appendix
25. Trustpower presentation to Infratil Investor Day 11 April 2018
FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18Long run
average
MWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWhMWh
Long Term NI
Generation690,401 780,391 546,024 749,931 614,570 779,535 921,240 724,997 566,207 516,092 626,126 758,366 987,184 712,389
Long Term SI
Generation832,536 886,856 925,803 818,512 820,116 956,633 1,012,092 947,841 948,379 1,012,905 930,464 988,994 998,371 929,193
Bream Bay------311 994 1,030 666 981 2,249 2,448 1,395
Deep Stream-------18,713 16,790 20,788 18,525 18,293 17,095 18,368
Esk--------5,118 15,710 11,630 12,674 14,481 13,624
KCE236,904 195,178 216,041
Total NI690,401 780,391 546,024 749,931 614,570 779,535 921,551 725,991 572,355 532,468 638,737 1,010,192
1,199,291
943,449
Total SI832,536 886,856 925,803 818,512 820,116 956,633 1,012,092 966,554 965,169 1,033,694 948,989 1,007,287
1,015,466
947,560
Generation volumes
---
››
$250M INVESTED OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS
Terminal Redevelopment
NZ$60m
Extension complete. 30%
increase in Income Per Pax
over last three years. Main
Terminal being redeveloped
with new retail and dining
choices throughout further lifting
passenger spend rate.
01
Multi Level Car Park
NZ$70m
50% increase in parking spaces.
New parking products including
Air NZ partnership and koru valet,
real-time display of available
spaces, improved public
transport access. Uber & shared
ride options also available. 20%
increase in Income Per Pax over
last three years.
02
Rydges Airport Hotel
NZ$36m
Strategic upside with regional
connectivity for passengers
travelling from central New
Zealand. More than $4m
EBITDA contribution in first full
year of operation. 134 rooms,
conference facilities, restaurant
and bar. Expected completion
in late 2018.
03
Taxiway Overlay
NZ$25m
Resurfacing and widening for
CAA compliance. Includes
new resilient inground lighting.
Commenced in September 2017.
04
Guidance FY2019 ~ $100M EBITDA
››
CUSTOMER SERVICE
• Ranked #3 in Australasia
• 4.3 out of 5.0
for Service Quality
Airport Service Quality Score vs Peer Group Benchmark 2017
3.40
3.00
3.80
4.20
4.60
5.00
(ASQ Score)
WIAL
Source: ACI ASQ Quarterly Ranking
Peer Group Benchmark Australasian Airports
Wayfinding
Flight
Connections
Info ScreensBaggage
Trolleys
Staff
Courtesy
Washrooms
Cleanliness
Terminal
Cleanliness
Ambience
Security
Check-in
Feeling
Safe
Waiting Areas
Walking
Distance
››
INNOVATION AND EFFICIENCY
• Airfield optimisation - two additional taxi lanes and
increased aircraft parking stands, nose-in guidance
systems, automated airbridges
• Accelerometers to enable accurate and efficient
earthquake decision making
• Online portal for real time information and airport wide
collaborative decision making
• Common user terminal equipment for check-in
and ticketing
• Self service boarding gates
• Enhanced WiFi providing real time passenger
flow information
• Enhanced CCTV
• Fully mobile responsive website
• Diverse internet links resiliency and efficiency
• Performance Based Navigation for aircraft
››
AERONAUTICAL RETURNS
• Regulatory profit of $36.8m FY17
• ROI of 8.58%, excl revaluations 6.7%
• Current airline prices expire 31 March 2019
• Preparing for next airline pricing consultation
“The review concluded that information disclosure has largely
worked well to date, and there is not currently a need to change
the type of regulation to which major airports are subject.”
››
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER GROWTH 1998 - 2018
199820082017
over last 20 years
over last 10 years
over last 5 years
4.2
%
4.1
%
4.4
%
Wellington International Passengers
900k
605k
404k
››
NEW ARRIVALS
››
NEW ARRIVALS
–
FIJI AIRWAYS
47
%
242
%
67
%
Fiji traffic
Wellington – Fiji direct traffic
Air NZ capacity
Wellington
Auckland
52% now fly direct78% used to fly via Auckland
Fiji
“After 16 months of operation
it is quite clear that Wellington
has performed very well for us”
››
NEW ARRIVALS
–
SINGAPORE AIRLINES
20
%
83
%
86
%
56
%
Asia
India
Singapore
Indonesia
Increase in International arrivals into
Wellington Airport since Singapore
Airlines service commenced
››
CONNECTIVITY VS MARKET SHARE
2.5
%
Korea
% Visitor spend in Wellington
Year ended 2017
Bad connectivity
Good connectivity
3.1
%
China
Japan
4.1
%
8.2
%
Australia
››
$250M FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
• Airfield improvements - southern apron, runway overlay, taxiway
reconstruction
• Baggage handling system
• Fire Station
• Seawall reconstruction
• Navigation aids
• Hotel stage 2
• Second stage retail expansion
• Further commercial development on western land
• Miramar South School land
*Aeronautical major capex expenditure is subject to airline consultation
**Excludes Runway Extension and Miramar Golf Club
››
DRAFT 2037 MASTERPLAN
• Developing draft Masterplan for 2037
• Passengers forecast to exceed 10M
• Demand for aircraft parking sees the need for
some golf course land
• Possibility of International Terminal expansion to
the South
• Aircraft type, gates, stands, apron
• Baggage handling systems
• ECAC regulations by 2022
• Landside needs
• Consulting with major stakeholders in late 2018
››
DRAFT 2037 MASTERPLAN
Aviation
support /catering
Regional
apron
Apron
Apron/
aviation
support
Cargo
International
Terminal
Airport
•
April 2018
Update RESA information for CAA
reconsideration
Judicial hearing on request to hold
existing consent application
• September 2018
Possible CAA decision on RESA length
• March 2019
Proceed with existing consent hearing
depending on CAA decision
• July 2019
Possible consent decision
››
RUNWAY EXTENSION – REAPPLYING TO CAA ON SAFETY LENGTH
››
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN NZ TOURISM
• Tourism hotspots are filling up
• Focus on Auckland must change and growth is
reliant on regional dispersal
››
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN NZ TOURISM
››
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN NZ TOURISM
• New itineraries including Wellington
• Marlborough and Nelson increasingly linked to Wellington
Marahau
Nelson Central
Picton
Blenheim
St Arnaud
Wellington Central
It was difficult to link Wellington and Queenstown
That’s changed with a 600% increase in direct capacity
››
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN NZ TOURISM
2018
260k
2017
157k
2008
37k
››
QUESTIONS
• Well positioned for international traffic growth
• Investing $250M over the next five years
• Airfield improvements
• Hotel stage 2
• Second stage retail expansion
• Further commercial development on western land
• Masterplan 2037
---
InfratilPortfolio Strategy
Paul Newfield, CIO
InfratilInvestor Day
April 2018
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Bringing you inside the InfratilPortfolio Strategy Process
•IFT Investor Day is the culmination of our annual
investment strategy review process
•Presentations today aimed to provide greater insight
into the performance and prospects of individual
portfolio companies
•This final session summarisesIFT’s
–approach to portfolio strategy
–updated macro views
–top-down views on upcoming options
–anticipated capital allocation choices
Taking a portfolio-wide view to maximiserisk-adjusted returns
2
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
3
The InfratilPortfolio Strategy Process
Prioritisingcapital across an option-rich portfolio
IFT’s Strategic Purpose
Capacity and Cashflow
Existing Platforms,
Proprietary Options
External Origination
Options
Portfolio Review
&
Opportunity
Prioritisation
Overall Portfolio
Positioning
Capital Allocation Choices
Macro & Market
Conditions
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Macro & Market Environment
Developed economies recovering, but long term growth capacity remains constrained
4
OECD Real GDP Growth
% change from year earlier
Unemployment –Four largest advanced economies
% of labour force
Jan-00
10
8
9
12
6
5
Jan-20Jan-15Jan-10Jan-05
11
7
4
3
USA
Japan
Germany
UK
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.5
2.0
4.5
1.0
5.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-4.5
-1.0
-3.5
-4.0
-5.0
1.5
-0.5
-3.0
0.0
4.0
2000-
Q1
1990-
Q1
2005-
Q1
2010-
Q1
2017-
Q1
1995-
Q1
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
Ѳ= 2.6%
Trend Q1 90
–Q3 08
Ѳ= 2.1%
Trend Q2 09 –
Q3 17
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Macro & Market Environment
Interest rate outlook starting to turn
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan 2025Jan 2020Jan 2030Jan 2010Jan 2015
Actual fed rate
Forward curve at 1 Jan each year
Actual fed rate -LTM
Changing Interest Rate Expectations since the GFC
US Federal reserve rate and forward curves as at 1 Jan each year (2007-2018), %
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Macro & Market Environment
Last year we flagged our fear of a US “Pressure Cooker Economy”, all the ingredients are now in place
6
Defence
Spend
Protectionism
Immigration
Restrictions
Fiscal
Stimulus
Tax Cuts
Populist
Politics
Aging Population
Stagnant Productivity
Infrastructure
Spend
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
Macro & Market Environment
Rising trend of nationalism & interventionism
7
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
The flow of capital into infrastructure shows no sign of abating
Institutions increasing allocations, a mountain of dry powder is forming
8
Unlisted Infrastructure Fund Dry Powder (excludes Direct Investors)
Total World ($bn)
161
160
152
109
105
109
73
84
68
64
66
2008
+10.3%p.a.
201620142012Feb 18201120102013201520092017
Source: Preqin
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
However deal flow is declining as major privatizations dry up
Decline particularly notable in Australian core infrastructure
9
Aggregate infrastructure deal value
Total World ($bn)
61
337
470
390
334
248
259
267
201
187
278
-28.3%
2009201020082014201720162013201520122011Q1 2018
Source: Preqin
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
•Short term, stimulus-driven growth
•Increasing short term pressure on rates
•Longer term growth constrained by
demographic fundamentals
•Protectionism and interventionism make
matters worse
•Ever-rising infra allocations adding to a
mountain of dry powder
•Deal volumes dropping from peaks, few
major privatizations on the horizon
Macro and market conditions: Summary
10
ObservationsIFT Implications
•Manage IFT equity allocation aggressively
•Term out debt positions
•Prioritise embedded options within existing
platforms and leverage NZ home advantage
•Investin early stage research to stay ahead of
the pack
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
11
Infratil’sStrategic Purpose: Excess Returns from Growth Infrastructure
Recap: Our Definition of “Growth Infrastructure”
High barriers
to competition
Proprietary
reinvestment
options
Secular growth
drivers
Growth
Infra
•Barriers to entry
•Contracted revenues
•Inflation protection
•An “idea that matters”
•Solving long term needs
•Demographic, economic &
technological megatrends
•Expansion projects
•Development pipeline
•Bolt-on acquisitions
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
12
Capacity and Cashflow
IFT’s core assets providing balance sheet strength and cashflows to support reinvestment
CORE CASH GENERATIVE ASSETS
Renewables
Platform
Emerging
Platforms
•Student Accom
•Social Infrastructure
Eldercare
Platform
Data
Infrastructure
Platform
Core assets
generate >$150m
pa of free cash
Excess cash funds
development
platforms
Core assets
support dividends
and debt service
$350-500m of
available balance
sheet capacity
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
13
Note:
1
Infratil and wholly-owned subsidiaries exclude Trustpower, Tilt, WIAL, Perth Energy, CDC, Longroad Energy, RetireAustralia and ANU.
2
NZ Bus export credit guarantee fleet procurement facility
•Maintaining IFT balance sheet capacity
–$269 million (excluding ECGD) of undrawn bank
facilities and $250+ million in cash
–Next bond maturities are $111.4 million in Nov 2018
and $68.5 million in Nov 2019
•Wholly Owned Group gearing ~30% as at 31 Mar
2018
•Recent refinancing activity across portfolio
–RetireAustralia: New 5 year facility, reduced core
debt, expanded development facility
–CDC: Early refinancing, pushing maturities from
2019 & 2021 to 2023 & 2025
–Tilt: New corporate facilities secured to support
Dundonnelldevelopment
Current gearing headroom provides opportunity for further investment
Capacity & Cashflow: Prudent Management of IFT Balance Sheet
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
>4 yrs>10 yrs202020212019
Infratildebt maturity profile
NZ$m
Bonds100% Subs’ bank facilities
2
IFT bank facilities
1
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
14
Existing platforms presenting proprietary investment options
Multi-year programmeof option development is now bearing fruit
CORE CASH GENERATIVE ASSETS
Renewables
Platform
Emerging
Platforms
•Student Accom
•SocialInfrastructure
Eldercare
Platform
Data
Infrastructure
Platform
Current investment
options exceed
balance sheet
capacity so capital
prioritisation will
be key
Material pipeline of
investment options
across existing
platforms
(>$1b over next 3
years)
Continue R&D on
emerging platforms
-Essential to remain
ahead of market
-Willing to exit
when ideas don’t
grow to scale
Current areas of
research focus:
-Telco infra
-Healthcare
-Carbon markets
-Water
-Waste
-Infratech
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
15
Existing Platforms: Renewable Energy
IFT’s established positions place it ahead of the pack
Social
Infrastructure
Water
Utilities
Renewables39%
8%
Energy
22%
6%
6%
Waste
11%
Transport
31%
6%
Telecoms
...to the most sought after infrastructure asset class
% of investors specifically targeting each sub-sector
Source: Infrastructure Investor Berlin LP Insights
Tilt and Longroadoffer attractive access points...
•Renewable energy is the most active infrastructure
sector regionally and globally
–>US$250b of global renewables investment in 2017
–>50% of 2017 infra deal flow by volume in Australia
•However, long term PPA-backed assets are increasingly
hard to secure and sought-after in Australia
–Lack of PPA availability forcing core infrastructure investors
to look elsewhere for Renewable energy exposure
•Tilt and Longroadoffer a rare combination
–Stable long term contracted cashflows
–Potentially high returning development options
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
16
Existing Platforms: Data Infrastructure
Data Centresincreasingly in the cross-hairs of infrastructure investors
Source: Bloomberg; MCO analysis.
1. For comparability, NextDC’smultiples have been adjusted for data centre rental expenses (capitalised at a yield of 5.0%)
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1-Jul-161-Jul-171-Jan-171-Jan-18
NTM EV/EBITDA (x)
18.6x
NextDCMetronode sale to Equinix
...And valuation metrics are rising accordingly
Australian data centre operator NTM EV/EBITDA(R)
1
multiples (x)
Risk/Return attributes increasingly understood...
•“Data Centres: Essential infrastructure for digital lives”
–AXA, 2017
•“Data centresare the factories of 50 years ago”
–OP Trust, 2018
•“We believe secular growth in data consumption will
generate attractive returns in the data centresector”
–GIC, 2018
•“Communications infrastructure has become an essential
service in the modern world, including fibre, wireless and
data centres”
–AMP Capital, 2018
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
•IFT portfolio is well set to deliver excess returns
–Strong cashflow generation and capacity for new investment
–New platforms delivering high returning proprietary options
•Market not yet valuing IFT’s more recently established
platforms
–Consistent with previous cycles of IFT portfolio evolution
•Reinforces the need to manage capital allocation aggressively
–Only the best options will receive IFT equity funding
–Strongestoptions currently in our Renewables and Data Platforms
–Core assets such as WIAL also demonstrating growth capacity
17
IFT Portfolio Positioning & Capital Allocation
Attractive set of investment options will force tough capital allocation calls
INFRATILINVESTOR DAY 2018
•Small assets struggle for recognition within the IFT share
price
–Implies a tightening of the portfolio
–Growth platforms will always start small, but those that fail to scale
in a reasonable period will be candidates for divestment
•Translating underlying value creation into TSR remains the
focus
–Flow development gains through to special dividends where
appropriate
•We will maintain an active research and origination
programme and a dynamic capital allocation model
–IFT’s track record is built on being “ahead of the pack”
–Market uncertainty implies a need for flexibility
–Ongoing capital contestability drives optimal returns
18
IFT Portfolio Strategy: Ultimate Focus on Shareholder Returns
Recognisingthe need for portfolio simplification, while sowing seeds for future value
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.