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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update16 April 2018MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 March 2018

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

1,035 GWh HYDRO GENERATION;

114% OF AVERAGE

FULL YEAR HYDRO GENERATION

FORECAST UP 150GWh

ANNUAL CHURN FOR ALL MERCURY

BRANDS UP 0.9% VERSUS PCP;

MARKET CHURN UP 1.2%

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

SECOND

HIGHEST Q3

GENERATION

1

4,700 GWh

RETAIL

COMPETITION

INTENSE

>> COMMENTARY

LOW STORAGE LEADS TO RECORD HIGH JANUARY PRICES; CYCLONES ARRIVE FEBRUARY-MARCH

Average wholesale prices remained elevated for the quarter ended 31 March 2018 being $85/MWh at Otahuhu and $79/MWh at Benmore,

up over $30/MWh on the prior comparable period. However prices varied significantly in the quarter with the January average price hitting

a record high due to national storage beginning the quarter at 82% of average and January national inflows being significantly below

average. This was contrasted with February and March as large inflows associated with cyclones Fehi and Gita suppressed wholesale prices

and pushed national hydro storage to 114% of average by the end of the quarter.

ABOVE AVERAGE HYDRO GENERATION OFFSETS GEOTHERMAL OUTAGE

Mercury continued to benefit from high inflows into the Waikato catchment with hydro generation in the quarter reaching 114% of average

1

.

The increased hydro contribution offset a reduction in geothermal output at Kawerau due to a planned two-yearly maintenance outage.

Favourable hydrological conditions have also lead to our full year hydro generation forecast being lifted to 4,700GWh (up 150GWhon

guidance provided with the Q2 FY2018 Operational Update).

Mercury's LWAP/GWAP ratio of 1.08, relative to 1.02 in the prior comparable period, was negatively affected by the timing of inflows and

by high prices coinciding with scheduled geothermal outages.

HIGH LEVELS OF RETAIL COMPETITION; INCREASED MARKET CHURN

Customer numbers decreased by 2,000 over the quarter to 391,000 due to intense retail competition with 48 retail brands now competing

in the New Zealand market, up 12 from the previous year. The decrease was spread across all Mercury group brands with the Mercury

brand itself experiencing its first quarterly decline following six consecutive quarters of growth.

Intense retail competition has also impacted churn levels with Mercury's annualised churn for all brands being 19.2% for the year to 28

February 2018

2

and up 0.9% compared to the same period the year prior. This remains below market with market churn also increasing

by 1.2% to 21.1%.

Mercury continues to 'Make It Easy' for our customers with 10,000 customers choosing to take up our offer to fix their prices under our

'Beat The Price Rise' campaign. The total number of customers on fixed-term contracts was more than 127,000 at the end of the quarter,

however down on the number at the start of the financial year as some customers chose not to re-fix as their fixed terms expired.

The average energy VWAP was up 3% to $113.99/MWh as average prices for both residential and commercial customers rose relative to

the prior year.

URBAN DEMAND GROWTH NEGATED BY REDUCTION IN IRRIGATION AND DAIRY LOAD

National demand was down 0.8% versus the prior comparable period after normalising for temperature (down 1.5% on an unadjusted

basis). Lower irrigation demand (-1%) was the most negatively impacted sector with lower demand also seen in the dairy (-0.2%), rural

(-0.3%) and industrial (-0.2%) sectors. The contraction in these sectors was partially offset by urban demand growth (up 1% after

adjusting for temperature).

1

For quarters ended 31 March since 1999

2

March 2018 Electricity Authority switching data was not available at the time of release

VWAP
1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)

9991,0363,3343,431

4884961,7921,798

5115401,5421,633

1,0551,0943,5223,624

211218681672

1,2661,3124,2034,296

391390

348348

4342

4844

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

4383521,1571,256

8397752,7502,576

296324938996

2

4014231,5931,320

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

1,0359543,7293,321

Geothermal (consolidated)

3

5916281,9081,918

Geothermal (equity accounted)

4

4554141168

Total1,6711,6365,7785,407

LWAP/GWAP1.081.021.071.03

6880256266

410401

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy only price sold to FPVV customers after lines, metering and fees

2

3

Includes Mercury’s 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

4

Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

91.0755.16

83.0148.94

86.8349.94

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

94.3654.48

Nine months ended

31 March 2018

Nine months ended

31 March 2017

($/MWh)($/MWh)

113.70111.82

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 March 2018

Three months ended

31 March 2017

($/MWh)($/MWh)

ELECTRICITY SALES

FPVV sales to customers

FPVV sales to residential customers

110.70113.99

FPVV sales to business customers

Total NZEM Purchases53.7087.92

FPVV purchases from market

Spot customer purchases

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000)

87.3455.21

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Hydro

North Island Customers

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

78.2150.30

South Island Customers

Buy CfD

Net Sell CfD

49.41

Dual Fuel Customers

75.39

End User CfD

Sell CfD

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2018 and 172 GWh for the 3

months ended 31 March 2017 and of 500 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2018 and 525 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2017

82.8752.82

CARBON EMISSIONS

('000 TONNES CO2)

METRIX AMI METERS ('000)

88.3152.79

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

18%

32%

22%

17%

4%

7%

Financial Year Q3 2018

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

17%

35%

21%

15%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q3 2017

14%

86%

Financial Year Q3 2018

MERCURY

OTHER

14%

86%

Financial Year Q3 2017

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
> TAUPO STORAGE

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2017 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2018 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2017FY2018

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$70.18

$77.61

$78.08

$70.83

$74.70

$76.60

$96.29

$80.50

$79.81

$84.40

$73.68

$78.79

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

FY18FY19FY20

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2017AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2017AS AT 31 MARCH 2018

$64.25

$71.40

$71.93

$67.06

$71.26

$71.38

$96.04

$77.59

$73.65

$80.78

$67.53

$71.00

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

FY18FY19FY20

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2017AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2017AS AT 31 MARCH 2018

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEARQ1Q2Q3Q4

201812.317.220.7-

201712.116.119.314.3

201611.416.020.615.3

201511.915.919.914.3

201412.316.718.814.8

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.1

Source: Met Service

> TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

7,991

8,021

8,233

8,2408,185

8,045

1,230

1,234

1,240

1,256

1,237

1,235

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 2018

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

MONTHLY NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.