Macquarie Conference Investor Presentation
Macquarie
Australia
Conference
May 2018
1
Care
Beds
Care
SuitesUnitsTotal
North Island
1,9762008032,979
South Island
5931183051,016
Total Existing
2,5693181,1083,995
DevelopmentPipeline
08271,2962,123
Less Decommissions
(544)0(132)(676)
Net DevelopmentPipeline
(544)8271,1641,447
Total Post Development
2,0251,1452,2725,442
Current and future portfolio composition–Remaining “needs” focused
Current and future portfolio composition
We are a large national operator of aged care and retirement villages with a portfolio of 51 sites and
significant development pipeline
Oceania is a care focused business
Hawke’s Bay
Auckland
Hamilton
Tauranga
Wellington
Nelson
Christchurch
Locations with
Development Land Bank
Locations with No
Development Land Bank
Oceania’s site locations
64%
37%
8%
21%
28%
42%
Current CompositionPost Development Composition
Care BedsCare SuitesUnits
2
We exceeded the IPO Forecasts for FY2017 and are on track to meet our IPO Forecast for FY2018 with y.o.y growth of
~35% in Underlying EBITDA.
Financial overview
Reported NPAT (NZD m’s)
Total Assets (NZD bn’s)
Underlying EBITDA (NZD m’s)
1. References to FY2018(F) in this document refer to the IPO Forecasts as presented in the Product Disclosure Statement (“PDS”) dated 31 March 2017. The Underlying EBITDA is a pro forma figure with the
adjustments as outlined in the PDS.
1
$19.4
$48.7
$44.9
$53.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
$29.5
$47.0
$45.0
$62.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$1.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018(F)
Our balance sheet is robust with low gearing
of 18.7% (as at 1HY2018) with all debt backed
by development land and WIP.
Our strong operating cashflow funds our
dividend payments (target payout of 50-60%
of Underlying NPAT).
Forecast dividend for FY2018 implies a gross
yield of 4.6%
3
Our key business strengths
1
Recognised leader in clinical care
Attractive demographic trends and industry structure –especially in the
care segment
Highly cashflow and value accretive brownfield development projects in
key urban locations
Established corporate platform with strong governance
Other key
business
strengths
Key
differentiating
factors
Clear growth strategy in aged care
2
3
4
5
6
Our strength is our care focus and this will continue to differentiate Oceania moving forward
Growing development track record and capability
4
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
Our Care Strategy
S E C T I O N 2
32
5
Our aged care strategy
1
2
Optimising our existing portfolio of facilities and redeveloping brownfields sites through premium care suites
Development of premium care suites in
key urban locations on brownfields land
Strong existing core aged care business with good returns
enhanced by
and
Upgrade and conversion of existing aged care
stock to premium care suites and beds
6
Our aged care strategy –key benefits
Aged care is a form of social infrastructure with demand underpinned by well understood demographic trends
Aged care is a difficult business to replicate –there are significant barriers to entry
Residential aged care facilities require MoH certification in order to receive government
funding (and are regularly audited by MoH)
Processes, systems and well-trained staff are required to achieve scale, maintain high
standards of service delivery and comply with regulatory requirements
Funding contracts and relationships with DHBs
Barriers to
entry
A high proportion of care revenue is government funded (c.80%) which provides stable
cashflows. This stable cashflow underpins our dividends
Because aged care is a quasi social infrastructure asset, governments have funded increases
to the sector at greater than CPI over the last decade
Aged care services are “needs based” -demand is less affected by residential house prices
and economic cycles
Providing a “continuum of care” on siteallows residents to age in place, which is a key
attraction to residents and their families when choosing a retirement village
Key
benefits
7
Continuing industry recognition, building on previous year’s successes:
➢Winner of the New Zealand Aged Care Association overall excellence in care award (third year in a row)
➢Winner of the Senior Lifestyle Cuisine Award (third year in a row)
Continued outstanding MoH audit results -25% of facilities at maximum of 4 years, all others at 3 years (up from 20% at 4
years as at May-17)
Implementation of our new clinical information system (e-case) in progress
Aged Care innovation -“I Love Music” programme rolled out across all sites
We are an industry leader in the delivery of care to our residents –this focus differentiates us from our competitors
Recognised leader in clinical care
2015, 2016 & 2017
8
New Zealand’s aged care industry
1
Context for our
Care Strategy
2
New Zealand has a shortage of quality aged care beds and a stable regulatory framework in which to deliver these
Demand for aged care is set to more than double in the next 20
years
There’s been a low level of care bed additions in the last
decade
Forecast supply by large operators is insufficient to meet the
required future bed additions
NZ’s regulators have recognised this and permitted the industry
to innovate and introduce private charging for aged care
services
3
4
9
1. Statistics New Zealand population forecasts as at March 2017.
Demand for aged care is set to more than double in the next 20 years
Estimated population growth
1
489,800
227,800
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1995200020052010201520192024202920342039
Population
Aged 75 to 84
Population
Aged 85+
1. Aged care –attractive demographics
10
1. Ministry of Health & Statistics New Zealand Data
In the last 12 years the number of facilities has reducedby 103 and only 3,155 beds have been added
New Zealand aged care places vs 80+ population growth
1
Population
Aged 75 to 84
Population
Aged 85+
Low net build rate of care beds
●Recent growth in the 80+ age group has
seen an increase in demand for both
residential aged care and home care
●The past 12 years has only seen net new
build of 3,155 beds as new builds are
offset by obsolete beds leaving the
market
●This low growth in supply of beds has been
supplemented by 2,700 serviced
apartments which generally do not
provide hospital or dementia level care
and/or are being occupied by
independent living residents
●Over 30% of NZ’s aged care stock is
estimated to be over 35 years old and not
suitable for hospital and dementia care
2. Aged care supply –not keeping up with
population growth
128
171
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Population 80+ (000s)
Total Care Places (000s)
Beds (LHS)Serviced Apartments (LHS)Population 80+(RHS)
32.8
38.7
11
Listed operators are only building approximately 800-900 beds per annum c.f the 1,500 beds required per annum
Annual build rates of aged care vs forecast demand
1
Population
Aged 75 to 84
Population
Aged 85+
Shortage looming in quality premium care beds and
hospital and dementia level care
●The number of aged care residents is expected to
double in the next 15 years –translating to 1,500 new
beds per annum required to meet this demand
2
●Listed operators are only expected to deliver 780 -925
beds p.a (including serviced apartments) meaning that
~40% –50% of the required demand is not satisfied
●Without additional capacity we expect increased
occupancy in the medium term for hospital and
dementia beds catering for subsidised residents
3. Aged care demand –outstripping supply
1. Estimates taken from company reports. 2. DHB shared services 2017 ARC demand planner. The 1,500 is net of any obsolete beds exiting the market
Beds
Serviced
AptsTotal
Oceania75 -100-75 -100
Ryman225 –250160 -180385 -430
Summerset70 -80100 -120170 -200
Metlifecare50 -75-50 -75
Arvida40 -5060 -70100 -120
Total Listed780 -925
Gap to required supply720 -575
Total1,500
12
While returns from traditionally-funded aged care beds are insufficient to incentivise new builds, the MoH has supported
innovation in the sector -specifically the introduction of private charging
Population
Aged 75 to 84
●NZ funding model has historically not reflected the capital costs
of proving accommodation
●Aged-care rooms were as small as 14m
2
with no ensuites
●Average industry earnings per bed of $10,000 per bed only
provides returns of ~5% on the cost of rebuilding facilities
●The industry has innovated to meet the required capacity and
provide a suitable premium product
●These innovations are well-accepted by regulators and
embedded in industry contracts
●Private charges enable beds to generate the returns required to
justify the investment in new build
●Strong similarities to Australian funding model with comparably
less regulatory uncertainty
4. Stable regulatory framework in NZ
13
After executing our pipeline at least 50% of our beds will be Care Suites or Premium (“PAC”) beds
Executing our growth strategy in care
Standard Beds
Care Suites/Studios
PAC beds
Current projects under
construction/recently completed
Our core portfolio of metropolitan and regional locations will meet the needs of both MoH subsidised residents requiring
hospital care (akin to concessional beds in Australia) as well as those residents wanting a premium aged care product
New builds currently underway at The Sands and Meadowbank (Auckland) , Melrose (Tauranga) and Trevellyn (Hamilton) –
249 Care Suites.
30 Care Suites recently completed at Meadowbank
Optimising existing portfolio through Care Suite conversions; extensive refurbishment with capital recovered
11%
31 May 18
(F)
New care suites under construction
Near
term
Fully
built-out
pipeline
Decommissioned care beds
New care suites in pipeline
20%
30%
21%
22%
16%
Decommissioned care beds
19%
36%
14
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
Our Development Strategy
S E C T I O N 3
3
15
We will maintain our overall portfolio focus on aged care
Current pipeline is 2,123 (after delivering 127 units and bed during FY2018). This is an
increase of 34% over the IPO pipeline of 1,674 when we listed in May 2017 (and an
increase of 26% compared to the pipeline of 1,782 as at November 2017).
Our development strategy comprises:
Execution of existing Tier 1 consented sites in Key Locations (1,246 care suites and
units) :
Development of integrated Aged Care and Retirement Village facilities on existing
land.
Consenting and development of other Tier 1 sites in Key Locations (520 care suites
and units):
We have recently acquired land in premium locations in Auckland (St Heliers and
Mt Eden) and are advancing plans at other premium locations.
Development of remaining Tier 2 brownfield landbank (357 suites and units):
Our Tier 2 developments comprise smaller villa and care bed development
projects in regional locations. We are consenting these to “bolt on” around our Tier
1 projects and diversify our timing and location of delivery of units.
Acquisition of suitable brownfield and greenfield sites
We will continue to supplement our pipeline with opportunistic acquisitions (e.g St
Heliers) and also add neighbouring properties (e.g Mt Eden) to leverage the scale
of our existing villages.
Strategy
We have increased our development pipeline by 34%
1
since our IPO in May 2017 and consented key development sites
Development strategy
1
2
3
4
Status of Development Pipeline
1. Adjusting for the 127 units and care suites delivered out of the 1,674 in the IPO Product Disclosure Statement
17%
42%
41%
Under constructionConsentedPlanned
16
We have delivered, and are currently constructing, a combined total of 810 care suites and units.
Track record of developments executed
CY2011 -CY2014CY2015CY2016
CY2018
Track Record of Construction
10.3%
15.9%
18.3%
22.1%
24.7%
25.4%
28.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1HY20121HY20131HY20141HY20151HY20161HY20171HY2018
Improving Development Margins
We have a highly experienced development team
with a track record of delivering projects on time
and budget
Our philosophy is based on “ownership” of what we
do all the way from design, master planning,
consenting, design management, procurement,
construction management, quality control and after
care.
Our development margins have increased over
time. We are targeting an average range of 15-25%
over the entire pipeline.
17
We have a pipeline of 2,123 units and care suites. Of this, 1,246 units and care suites are either under construction or
consented. Key current and near term developments are outlined below.
Clear development pipeline
Stage 2-3Christchurch Consented 46
Stage 1 Tauranga Under Construction 81
Windermere Christchurch Consented
Stage 1Christchurch Consented 82
Stage 2-3Hamilton Consented 127
Stage 1Hamilton Under Construction 90
Trevellyn
Stage 2 -5Tauranga Consented 235
Green Gables Nelson Consented 88
Melrose
Construction period
Stage 4Auckland Under Construction 83
Meadowbank
Stage 3Auckland Complete 92
Stage 5Auckland Consented 26
The Sands Auckland Under Construction 108
Stoke Nelson Complete 10
Gross
Residences
LocationStatus
Nov 17 May 18Nov 18May 19Future
Facility
18
The 62 apartments and 30 Care Suites were delivered on time and on budget
Meadowbank stage 3 delivered
●30 care suites and studios and 62 apartments
●35 Apartments are settled or under application
This is ahead of our IPO Forecast of 28
apartments
●9Care Suites are settled or under pre sales
application in line with the IPO Forecast
Stage 3 complete
Stage 4 under construction
●34 care suites and studios, and
●49 apartments
●Due for completion in mid CY2019
19
Construction of The Sands is advancing on schedule with strong levels of presales interest
The Sands progressing on programme
The Sands in Browns Bay, Auckland will provide
64 apartments and 44 care suites
●Due for completion mid CY2019
●Strong in-bound inquiry from potential purchasers
20
We have acquired a greenfield site in the desirable suburb of St. Heliers in Auckland.
Premium site acquired in St. Heliers, Auckland
Greenfield site in the suburb of St Heliers
●8,945m
2
with extensive harbour views acquired
●Premium boutique aged care facility and retirement
village planned
●Strong forecast demand in the catchment area
●Median house price of $1.7m in the area
St Heliers, Auckland
WAIMARIE STREET
21
Our business model supports a combination of dividend yield backed by strong operating cashflows and predictable
long term growth from our development pipeline
Summary of Oceania’s investment proposition
Aged care
Village
Development
Stable revenue from “needs-based”
care service which underpins our
dividend payments
Regular “annuity-like” DMF earnings
stream....
...with growth through premium
charging and care suite model
...and resale margins from existing
embedded value
Developments drive future DMF and
care earnings streams...
...as well as upfront development
cashflow
2222
Questions
23
Development pipeline
Our development pipeline as at May 2018.
LocationStatusTotal NetTotal Gross
Current Developments
Meadowbank Stage 4AucklandConstruction
8383
Melrose Stage 1TaurangaConstruction
8181
Trevellyn Stage 1HamiltonConstruction8790
The SandsAucklandConstruction
108108
Sub-Total
359362
Premier Developments
Meadowbank Stages 5&6Auckland
Consented/ In
Planning
6262
Melrose Stages 2-5TaurangaConsented
126235
Trevellyn Stages 2-3HamiltonConsented
21127
Green GablesNelsonConsented
8989
AucklandAucklandIn Planning
445763
WindermereChristchurchConsented
111128
Sub-Total
8541,404
Other Developments
Hawkes BayIn Planning
159165
South IslandIn Planning
22139
Central North IslandIn Planning
3131
North Island -otherIn Planning
2222
Sub-Total
234357
Total14472123
24
Care Suite: A room or studio certified for the provision of care by the Ministry of Health which has been licensed under an ORA
DMF: Deferred management fees, charged under an ORA, which accrue monthly to a specified maximum and are deducted from the refund
paid to the departing resident upon resale of the unit or care suite
IPO Forecasts: Prospective Financial Information contained in the Product Disclosure Statement and Supplementary Financial Information
dated 31 March 2017
MoH: Ministry of Health
ORA: An occupation right agreement that confers on a resident the right to occupancy a unit or care suite subject to certain terms and
conditions set out in the agreement
PAC: Premium accommodation charge on a care bed for accommodation provided above the mandated minimum
Unit: Includes independent villas and apartments
WIP: Work in progress
Glossary
25
This presentation has been prepared solely by Oceania Healthcare Limited ("Oceania"). You must read this disclaimer before making any use of
this presentation and the accompanying material or any information contained in it ("Document").
The presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures for development sales, resales and occupancy which assist the reader with
understanding the volumes of units settled during the period and the impact that development sales and resales during the periodhad on
occupancy as at the end of the period.
The addition of totals and subtotal within tables and percentage movements may differ due to rounding.
The information set out in this Document is an overview and does not contain all information necessary to make an investment decision.
The information in this presentation does not purport to be a complete description of Oceania. In making investment decisions, investors must rely
on their own examination of Oceania, including the merits and risks involved. Investors should consult their own legal, tax and/or financial advisors
in connection with any acquisition of financial products.
The information contained in this presentation has been prepared in good faith by Oceania. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied,
is made to the accuracy, adequacy or reliability of any statements, estimates or opinions or other information contained in thispresentation, any
of which may change without notice. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Oceania, its directors, officers, employees and agents disclaim all
liability and responsibility (including without limitation any liability arising from fault or negligence on the part of Oceania, its directors, officers,
employees and agents) for any direct or indirect loss or damage which may be suffered by any person through the use of or reliance on anything
contained in, or omitted from, this presentation.
This presentation is not a product disclosure statement, prospectus, investment statement or disclosure document, or an offerofshares for
subscription, or sale, in any jurisdiction.
Receipt of this Document and/or attendance at this presentation constitutes acceptance of the terms set out above in this disclaimer.
Important notice and disclaimer
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.