Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price Increase and Earnings Revision

Guidance23 May 2018FCGConsumer Staples

23 May 2018

FONTERRA INCREASES FARMGATE MILK PRICE AND REVISES FORECAST EARNINGS


Fonterra Co-operative Group today increased its 2017/18 forecast Farmgate Milk Price by 20 cents

to $6.75 per kgMS.

Chairman John Wilson says the Co-operative’s strong milk price reflects a global supply and

demand picture that continues to be positive for farmers.

“Global dairy prices have risen since the start of the season. The price of Whole Milk Powder is

particularly strong due to continued growth in demand from China and across Asia,” says Mr

Wilson.

“Our Co-operative’s forecast milk collections here in New Zealand have increased to 1,500 million

kgMS, up from the 1,480 million kgMS we reported at half year, thanks to improved farming

conditions in March and April after a challenging spring and summer.

Commenting on what the higher forecast Farmgate Milk Price means for the business, Mr Wilson

says the higher milk price is good news for farmers who are still recovering after the two years of

lower milk prices in 2015 and 2016. However, the higher milk price puts pressure on Fonterra’s

earnings in a year which is already proving challenging due to the payment to Danone and the

impairment of the Co-operative’s Beingmate investment.

“As a result, we are revising our forecast normalised earnings per share guidance range down to

25-30 cents per share and our forecast dividend range for the full year down to 15-20 cents per

share.”

“The business’ revised earnings forecast is disappointing for our shareholders and unitholders.

However, the total forecast cash payout for farmers increases to $6.90-$6.95 per kgMS which is the

third highest payout this decade.”

Chief Executive Theo Spierings says the earnings challenge that comes with the higher milk price is

compounded by the timing and significance of this particular increase.

“There is always a natural lag in being able to pass through an increase in our input costs. But this

increase has been both rapid and late in the year, making it difficult for these higher costs to flow

through into our sales for this financial year.

Fonterra Co-operative Group
Confidential to Fonterra Co-operative Group Page 2


“Against this backdrop, we can see our sales margins are not where they need to be at this point in

the year to achieve our original earnings forecast”.

Third Quarter Business Update

Fonterra’s revenue of $14.8 billion for the first nine months of 2017/18 is up seven per cent on the

same period last year, as a result of higher prices.

“In the first half of the year we felt the impact of the record low inventory followed by the low spring

milk collections in New Zealand due to difficult weather conditions. This meant our sales teams had

less product to sell. We were expecting our earnings to be weighted in the second half of the year

and this has not transpired due to the rapid rise in our input costs late in the season into our value-

add business.”

With total volumes down five per cent to 16 billion LMEs and gross margin down to 16 per cent from

18 per cent for the first nine months of the year, compared to the same period last year, Mr

Spierings says the business has not delivered the third quarter results it had planned.

“With the increase in the price of milk fats we have also seen continued demand towards products

with a lower fat composition, sustained competition in Greater China’s foodservice market and

further constraints in some Asian markets limiting our ability to pass through costs,” says Mr

Spierings.

These challenges, along with the Danone payment and the impairment of our Beingmate

investment mean our gearing ratio is expected to be above our target 40-45 per cent range. We

expect to be back within the target range next year,” continues Mr Spierings.

“While the strong milk price is good for our farmers, it does make the remainder of the year

challenging for the business. We remain committed to maximising the total payout for our farmers

and value for our unitholders by delivering the best possible earnings.”

ENDS


For further information contact:

Dan Wrigley

Fonterra Communications

Phone: +64 21 820 679


24-hour media line

Phone: +64 21 507 072



About Fonterra

We’re a global dairy nutrition company owned by more than 10,000 farmers and their families. We’ve built our

expertise on the legacy of the thousands of farmers who’ve made New Zealand a world leader in dairy. With a

can-do attitude and a collaborative spirit, we’re a world leading dairy exporter. Our 22,000 people share the

goodness of dairy nutrition with the world through our innovative consumer, foodservice and ingredient solutions

brands, and our farming and processing operations across four continents.

---

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OUR

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OPERATIVE

OUR

PERFORMANCE

Business Update

MAY 2018

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 2

Disclaimer

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. There can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the

matters to which the forward-looking statements and projections relate. These forward-looking statements and projections involve

known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be

materiallydifferentfromtheeventsorresultsexpressedorimpliedbysuchstatementsandprojections.Thoserisks,uncertainties,

assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited (Fonterra) and its

subsidiaries (the Fonterra Group) and cannot be predicted by the FonterraGroup.

While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this presentation none of Fonterra or any of its respective

subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (Relevant Persons)

makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this presentation or

likelihoodoffulfilmentofanyforward-lookingstatementorprojectionoranyoutcomesexpressedorimpliedinanyforward-looking

statement or projection. The forward-looking statements and projections in this report reflect views held only at the date of

thispresentation.

Statementsaboutpastperformancearenotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureperformance.

ExceptasrequiredbyapplicablelaworanyapplicableListingRules,theRelevantPersonsdisclaimanyobligationorundertakingto

update any information in thispresentation.

Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteinvestmentadvice,oraninducement,recommendationoroffertobuy orsellany securitiesin

Fonterra or the Fonterra Shareholders’Fund.

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 3

Higher forecast pay-out for farmers

4.726.107.606.085.848.404.403.906.126.757.00

0.48

0.27

0.30

0.32

0.32

0.10

0.25

0.40

Range

0.15

to

0.20

5.20

6.37

7.90

6.40

6.16

8.50

4.65

4.30

6.52

2009201020112012201320142015201620172018

forecast

2019

forecast

Farmgate Milk PriceDividend

Improved Farmgate Milk Price, lower forecast dividend range

1.For farm budgeting purposes a target full year dividend range of 15-20 cents per share is assumed. The dividend will be calculated in accordance with Fonterra

policy of paying out 65-75 per cent of adjusted net profit after tax over time. 2. The forecast earnings range for FY2019 will be provided at a later date.

Note: Farmgate Milk Price: $ per kgMS; Dividend: $ per share

Indicative

payoutfor

budgeting¹

6.90-6.95

0.40

2

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 4

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay

Volume (m litres/day)

Strong late season collections

But lower overall volumes this season

SeasonTotal Milk Solids (kgMS)Peak Day Milk

—2015/161,566m (down 3%)87m litres

—2016/171,526m (down 3%)80m litres

—2017/18F1,500m (down 2%)82mlitres

•Season forecast increased

to 1,500 million kgMS,

from 1,480 million kgMS

•Driven by favourable late

season conditions

•Full season forecast down

2% on last year due to

difficult weather conditions

impacting pasturegrowth

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 5

Strong dairy demand continues

Note: All 12 month figures are rolling 12-months compared to previous comparable period: Australia (Mar), EU (Mar), United States (Feb), China (Mar), Asia

(Jan), Middle East & Africa (Jan), Latin America (Jan)

Source: Government milk production statistics; GTIS trade data; Fonterra analysis

Demand

Supply

Russia

EU’s largest dairy

export market –trade

embargo remains

US

12 months

production

+2

%

Australia

12 months

production

Fonterra in NZ

12 months

production

Last 3 months

(Feb, Mar, Apr)

-2

%

-2

%

Asia (excl China)

12 months

imports

0

%

Middle East & Africa

12 months

imports

-2

%

EU

12 months

production

Last 3 months

(Jan, Feb, March)

+3

%

Latin America

12 months

imports

-1

%

China

12 months

imports

Last 3 months

(Jan, Feb, March)

+17

%

+15

%

+3

%

+2

%

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 6

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Note: All prices in US dollars per MT. 9M refers to the nine-month period ended 30 April.

Source: GDT data

Strength in commodity prices supports a higher milk price

Continued margin pressure from higher prices, particularly for fat products

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

FebMar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

FebMar

Apr

May

Anhydrous Milk Fat

Whole Milk Powder

9M 2017

Avg price $3,026

9M 2018

Avg price $3,067

9M 2017

Avg price $5,261

9M 2018

Avg price $6,468

Skim Milk Powder

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

9M 2017

Avg price $2,322

9M 2018

Avg price $1,885

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

AugSep

Oct

NovDec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Butter

9M 2017

Avg price $4,203

9M 2018

Avg price $5,359

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 7

Continued focus on Volume to higher Value

Growth in Q3 but revised full year target for additional LME

Deliver

onFoodservicepotential

Selectivelyinvest

in milkpools

Grow

ourAnlene™business

Develop

leadingpositionsin

paed& maternalnutrition

Optimise

NZmilk

1

Align

our business andorganisation

Build andgrow

beyond our current

consumerpositions

3

2

4

5

6

7

•Volumes down 5% to 16.0b

LME comparable year-to-date

•Ingredients

–Lower collections and

opening inventory resulted

in 5% lower sales volumes

comparable year-to-date

•Consumer & Foodservice

–Volume growth in three

regions, but overall below

expectations

–Full year target of

additional LME revised to

130M LME

DIRA

Consumer

Foodservice

YTD

16.0b

LME

GDT

Advanced

Ingredients

Base

Ingredients

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 8

$584M16.0B$14.8B

FY18 nine-month performance summary

CAPEX

Consumer & Foodservice

Volume4.0B

Gross Margin24%

China Farms

Volume0.2B

Gross Margin -5%

Ingredients

Volume14.8B

Gross Margin10%

VOLUME (LME)REVENUE

5% 7% 35%

16%

GROSS MARGIN

$1.9B

OPEX

2% FROM18%

1. Full year capex forecast range of $800 -850M 2. This is the volume of milk collections.

Note: Volume is in billion LME; All changes are expressed relative to first nine-months of FY17

FROM28%FROM1%

DOWN 5%

UP4%

Strong commodity prices continue to put pressure on margins

1

2

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 9

Ingredients

•Q3 volumes up 9% on last year

•Year-to-date volumes down 5% compared to last year due to:

–Lower opening inventory and collections

–Product mix

Value

•Year-to-date margins in-line with last year

•Strengthening commodity prices tightened margins in Q3 due

to:

–The natural pricing lag inherent in our sales contracts in a

rising milk price environment

–Lower price achievement, in particular, increased

competition from US and Europe in cheese and proteins

Volume

1. Includes sales to other strategic platforms

Note: Volume is in billion LME. All changes are expressed relative to the first nine-months of FY17

Volume (B LME)¹

Gross Margin (%)

10%

10%

9M FY179M FY18

15.9

15.0

9M FY179M FY18

(5%)

Strengthening commodity prices tightened margins in Q3

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 10

Consumer & Foodservice

High input costs for fats continue to put pressure on volumes and margins

•Volume growth in three regions (up 3%) but down in Oceania

(8%). Oceania impacted by NZ performance challenges

•Continued growth in Greater China, Q3 volumes up 12% but

lower than anticipated

•Lower volumes from butter products than expected

Value

•Sales growth of 6% year-to-date but continued pressure on

margins from:

–High input prices, especially fat products

–Increased competition in Greater China Foodservice,

including from European imports

•Further constraints on our ability to pass on higher input costs

in some Asian markets

Volume

Volume (B LME)

Gross Margin (%)

28.0%

24.0%

9M FY179M FY18

4.0

4.0

9M FY179M FY18

0%

Note: Volume is in billion LME. All changes are expressed relative to the nine-months of FY17

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 11

884

936

9M FY179M FY18

Asia

Greater China

Consumer and Foodservice

Continued growth in Greater China, Asia and LATAM

546

555

9M FY179M FY18

1,318

9M FY179M FY18

1,284

9M FY179M FY18

Oceania

Volume

Latin America

Volume

(8%)

2%

VolumeVolume

2%

6%

24%

Gross Margin

FROM29%

20%

Gross Margin

FROM24%

22%

Gross Margin

FROM32%

29%

Gross Margin

FROM31%

1,306

1,219

Note: Volume is in million LME. All changes are expressed relative to the nine-months of FY17

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 12

Progress but challenges continue

•CEO appointment progressing

•Q1 result announced:

–A small profit, including a one-off government

grant

–Lower sales, partly due to market-wide

clearing of unregistered products as new

regulations apply

Beingmateupdate

1

Strategic rationale continues

•Infant formula market growth

•Regulatory opportunity

•Brand equity

2

Way forward

•Appointment of new CEO

•Implement business transformation

•Continue utilising existing governance

structure

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 13

•Strong cash flow and liquidity

•Full year capex forecast range of $800 -850M

•Year-end gearing likely to be above 40-45%

target range

–due to abnormal items announced at interim

and the lower earnings

–returning within range next year

•Working capital days are up 9 days on last year

due to higher commodity prices, reflected in

higher inventory and receivables

•Year-end inventory volume expected to be in-line

with last year

Solid credit rating reflects strong fundamentalsFinancial discipline continued

Financial strength and discipline

Credit Rating

Fitch

A

(stable outlook)

S&P

A-

(stable outlook)

Debt WeightedAverage

Term to Maturity

As at

30Apr 2018

3.8 years

Workingcapital days–9 month average

109

99

103

89

80

78

87

30 April

2012

30 April

2013

30 April

2014

30 April

2015

30 April

2016

30 April

2017

30 April

2018

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 14

Summary and outlook for balance of 2018

Farmgate Milk Price to rise to $6.75 per kgMS

•Strong dairy demand continues

Operating performance impacted by higher commodity prices

•Ingredients’ lower margins in the third quarter are expected to continue due to pricing lags

and lower price achievement

•Consumer and Foodservice’ additional LME target revised down and gross margin forecast to

remain at current levels

•Balance sheet and cash flows remain strong

Forecast cash payoutrange of $6.90-$6.95

•Forecast normalised earnings range of 25-30 cents per share

•Forecast full year dividend range of 15-20 cents per share

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 15

Glossary

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat

BMP

Butter Milk Powder

Base Price

Prices used by Fonterra’s sales team as

referenced against GDT prices and other relevant

benchmarks

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring Act 2001 (New

Zealand)

GDT

GlobalDairyTrade, the online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of dairy ingredients

Gearing Ratio

Economic net interest bearing debt divided by

economic net interest bearing debt plus equity

excluding cash-flow hedge reserves

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in New Zealand to

Fonterra by farmer shareholders

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping of skim milk, whole milk and

cream –pasteurised or UHT processed,

concentrated milk products andyoghurt

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the measure of the amount

of fat and protein in the milk supplied to Fonterra

LME (Liquid Milk Equivalent)

A standard measure of the amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product based on the amount of

fat and protein in the product relative to the amount

of fat and protein in standardised raw milk

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except for Reference, produced

by the NZ Ingredients business

Price Achievement

Revenue achieved over the base price less

incremental supply chain costs above those set out

in the Milk Price model

Reference Products

The dairy products used in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which are currently WMP,

SMP, BMP, butter and AMF

Regulated Return

The earnings component of Milk Price generated

from a WACC return on an assumed asset base

Season

New Zealand: A period of 12 months to 31 May in

eachyear

Australia: A period of 12 months to 30 June in

eachyear

SMP

Skim Milk Powder

Stream Returns

The gross margin differential between Non-

Reference Product streams and the WMP stream

(based on base prices)

WACC

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

WMP

Whole Milk Powder

Acronyms and Definitions

© Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
Page 16

Glossary

Fonterra Strategic Platforms

Ingredients

The Ingredients platform comprises bulk and specialty dairy products such as milk powders, dairy fats, cheese and proteins manufactured in New

Zealand, Australia, Europe and Latin America, or sourced through our global network, and sold to food producers and distributorsin over 140

countries. It also includes Fonterra Farm Source™ retail stores.

Consumer

The Consumer platform comprises branded consumer products, such as powders, yoghurts, milk, butter, and cheese. Base productsare sourced

from the ingredients business and manufactured into higher-value consumer dairy products.

Foodservice

The Foodservice platform comprises a range of branded products and solutions for commercial kitchens, including bakery butter, culinary creams,

and cheeses.

China Farms

The China Farms platform comprises the farming operations in China, which produce high quality fresh milk for the Chinese market.

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