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MLN – June 2018 monthly update

Operational Update15 June 2018MLNFinancials

1
Monthly Update

June 2018

MLN NAV

$

1.01

SHARE PRICE

$

0.87

DISCOUNT

1

13.0

%

as at 31 May 2018

A word from the Manager

Global equity markets were mixed in May. The US S&P500

Index was up 2.2% boosted by the tech sector, while the

European Stoxx 600 Index fell due to political turbulence,

and emerging markets continued to retreat as the US dollar

strengthened. The Marlin portfolio lifted 2.9% on a gross

performance basis.

Marlin’s performance was driven by a number of Marlin’s

large technology holdings, but also from solid first

quarter financial results from Icon Plc, MasterCard and

TJX Companies – which helped offset a poor result from

Pandora.

Payments technology company PayPal was up 10% during

May, with its investor day shedding more light on its long

term strategy (which we discuss in more detail below).

Alibaba was up 11%, driven by financial results that showed

core commerce revenue growth of 62% on the prior year.

Recent portfolio addition Facebook was up 12% during the

month as it continued to rebound from recent privacy and

regulatory concerns.

PayPal’s widening moat

PayPal is worth discussing in more detail this month given

they recently held their annual investor day, which shed

further light on its evolving business model and future

growth aspirations.

We have always believed that PayPal has a strong

competitive advantage, which has helped it fend off new

entrants to the payment space like ApplePay. PayPal has a 15

year lead over many potential competitors, over 18 million

loyal online merchants that accept PayPal, and over 200

million users that rely on PayPal for online payment. This hard

to replicate network, user trust and first mover advantage

helps provide PayPal with a protective moat.

Our interest in PayPal’s investor day was to look for clues on

how PayPal is trying to protect this moat. Our takeaway was

that PayPal’s recent partnerships with a number of banks and

large technology companies like Google and Facebook are

strengthening its competitive advantage.

Large US banks like the Bank of America, Wells Fargo

and Chase are seeing an increasing volume of customer

transaction volume move online. To ensure they are still

participating and earning fees on these online transactions,

they are partnering with PayPal to ensure it is their credit

cards linked into the PayPal wallet. The rush by banks to

get their cards at the top of users’ PayPal wallets has led

to banks providing incentives (like a $150 credit by Wells

Fargo or 5% cash back on Chase cards) to customers that

set up a PayPal account and link it to their credit card. This

has resulted in a significant jump in user growth for PayPal.

The partnerships with Facebook and other technology

companies are also important as they signal that these

companies do not want the complexity of building their

own payments business. They would rather leverage

PayPal’s infrastructure to move more quickly and allow for

digital payments in products like Facebook Messenger and

Instagram. These partners are increasingly seeing PayPal as

platform to leverage, rather than a competitor.

Networks like PayPal often get stronger with scale. The

more users PayPal has, the more that online merchants

will want to adopt it as a payment option for customers

to use. And the more merchants that accept PayPal, the

more users will see benefit in having a PayPal wallet.

Overall we see these recent partnerships as extending

PayPal’s competitive advantage, and supporting

strong growth as they gain new users and benefit from

ecommerce growth. PayPal is targeting revenue growth of

17-18% and earnings per share growth in excess of 20%

per annum over the medium term, which we believe may

prove to be conservative.

Pandora’s mystery box

The biggest detractor from performance this month

was branded jewellery retailer, Pandora, with its share

price falling 27% in May. Pandora’s results were dragged

down by a slow-down in some of its mature markets

and increasing ‘grey channel’ activity into China - where

a number of Pandora’s wholesale clients began selling

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis)

2

S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.05

2
Sector Split

as at 31 May 2018

Key Details

as at 31 May 2018

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 November 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every 1% of

underperformance relative to the

change in the NZ 90 Day Bank Bill

Index with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

15% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.85

SHARES ON ISSUE

118m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$103m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

33

%


TECHNOLOGY

10

%

INDUSTRIALS

22

%


HEALTHCARE

22

%


CONSUMER

Geographical Split

as at 31 May 2018

18

%

WEST EUROPE

75

%

NORTH AMERICA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

9

%

FINANCIALS

5

%


ASIA

2

%


ENERGY

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

product directly into China, undercutting Pandora’s own

stores. The China news spooked the market, given China

has been one of Pandora’s highest growth regions in recent

years. The company has a number of tools at its disposal

to clamp down on the grey channel and minimise this

headwind, however these initiatives may take a number of

quarters to take effect.

When we added Pandora to the portfolio, we saw a strong

brand with a renewed focus on innovative product launches

and a direct to consumer strategy to accelerate growth.

Our recent discussions with Pandora franchisees in the US

indicate that the new product launches are gaining traction,

and they are looking forward to further product launches in

the coming months to drive a pickup in sales.

While Pandora’s recent results are disappointing, we

anticipate that these new product launches and a clamp

down on the China grey channel will drive an acceleration

in growth as the year progresses.

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

May’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

FACEBOOK

+12

%

ALIBABA

+11

%

PAYPAL

+10

%

ICON

+10

%

PANDORA

-27

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 31 May 2018

ALPHABET

7

%

PAYPAL

6

%

MASTERCARD

5

%

TJX COMPANIES

5

%

ALIBABA

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

1.20

$

0.8 0

$

0.60

$

0.40

$

1.80

$

0.20

$

0.00

$

1.40

Nov

2016

$

1.60

Nov

2017

$

2.00

Total Shareholder Return to 31 May 2018

Performance to 31 May 2018

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

Since Inception

(annualised)

Corporate Performance

Total Shareholder Return+3.6% +3.5% +19.3% +8.7% +6.0%

Adjusted NAV Return+2.4% +4.7% +18.6% +10.4% +6.8%

Manager Performance

Gross Performance Return +2.9%+4.4%+21.7%+14.3%+10.5%

Benchmark Index^+1.7%+3.0%+14.9%+11.3%+7.8%

3

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 October2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and hedging of currency movements, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing

it (if it elects to do so) to acquire up to 5.9m of its

shares on market in the year to 31 October 2018

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 16 May 2018, a new issue of warrants (MLNWC)

was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for

every four Marlin shares held

»Exercise Price = $0.83 per warrant, to be adjusted

down for dividends declared during the period up

to the Exercise Date

»Exercise Date = 12 May 2019

» The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form will be posted to warrant holders in

March 2019


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.