ArborGen Holdings Limited logo

Presentation

Investor Presentation19 June 2018ARBIndustrials

The ArborGen Opportunity
Presentation Materials –June 20, 2018

FORWARD-LOOKINGSTATEMENTS
TherearestatementsinthisPresentationthatare‘forwardlookingstatements.’Astheseforward-lookingstatementsarepredictiveinnature,they

aresubjecttoanumberofrisksanduncertaintiesrelatingtoRubiconandArborGen,manyofwhicharebeyondourcontrol.Asaresultofthe

foregoing,actualresultsandconditionsmaydiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedbysuchstatements.

Inparticular,ArborGen’soperationsandresultsaresignificantlyinfluencedbythegenerallevelofeconomicactivityinthevarioussectorsofthe

economiesinwhichitcompetes,particularlyintheUnitedStates,Brazil,NewZealandandAustralia.Fluctuationsinindustrialoutputandthe

impactthathasonglobaldemandforwoodfibreandhenceharvestingandreforestationlevels,governmentenvironmentalandregional

developmentpolicies,capitalavailability,relativeexchangerates,interestrates,theprofitabilityofourcustomers,caneachhaveasubstantialand

materialimpactonouroperationsandfinancialcondition.ArborGen-specificrisksanduncertaintiesalsoinclude(inadditiontothosebroad

economicfactorsnotedabove)theglobalmarketsandgeographiesinwhichitoperates,intellectualpropertyprotection,regulatoryapprovals,

publicandcustomeracceptanceofgeneticallyengineeredproducts,therateofcustomeradoptionofadvancedseedlingproducts,thesuccessof

itsresearchanddevelopmentactivities,weatherconditions,coneandseedinventories,biologicalmatters,andthefactthatArborGen’sannual

cropsandseedorchardsarenotthesubjectofinsurancecover.

Asaresultoftheforegoing,actualresultsandconclusionsmaydiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedbysuchstatements.

What is ArborGen’s mission in life?
To revolutionize productivity in global plantation forestry

... By applying advanced technology

... To critical tree traits

... To create new products that deliver ‘step-changes’ in tree-performance

3

The productivity revolution in agriculture will be repeated in forestry
... the agriculture ‘winner’ was the First-Mover

Global, Widespread Need for Food

Increasing Global Demand for

Sustainably Grown Wood

First Mover

First Mover

4

Global Area of Biotech Crops

1996 -2016

Source : ISAAA, 2016

“Corn parallel” -gives insight into the opportunity for ArborGen’s advanced genetics to lift yield in forestry
The forestry opportunity is significant if it follows the agriculture model

5

Double-Cross

Hybrids

Single-Cross

Hybrids

Open-Pollinated

Varieties

Yield

(bushels / acre)

Biotech

Current

stage

of US

forestry

seedlings

Forestry Terminology

Transgenic (or GE)

Varietal

MCP

(mass control

pollinated)

OP

(open pollinated)

ArborGen’s

Advanced

Genetics

Product

Platform

6
Normal distribution of

seedling outcomes –natural

pollination

Variety = identical replication of very best MCP

seedling outcome –no variation and hence no

normal distribution as the mean is the

identical replication of the best MCP seedling

GE = Best Variety / Clone

with biotech trait added

MCP = normal distribution of seedling

outcomes, but with superior mothers

and fathers matched under controlled

conditions moving the mean of the

distribution to the right

Technology employed determines extent of genetic ‘step-up’ –its about re-shaping / breaking the normal distribution curve

•Bio-informatics

•Cryopreservation

•Cell replication

•Somatic embryogenesis

•Genomic selection

ArborGen is the

only global

integrated

commercial player

operating across

the entire

technology

spectrum

ArborGen’s current

focus is on MCP

and varietals, which

do not require any

regulatory approval

process to be met

•There is only one

other commercial

US MCP player –

ArborGen is the

leading player

•There are no

other US Varietal

participants, as

the technology is

proprietary to

ArborGen

•Value to the

forest owner

increases with

each step in the

technology

continuum

The table below shows the value levers available to forest owners –advanced genetics is the one that ‘moves the dial’
the story –as highlights

The ArborGen Opportunity -advanced genetics is ‘the’ value lever

7

Forest value sensitivity analysis

Potential per acre value increment over base US OP loblolly pine

1.01.21.41.61.82.0

BLV increment (x)

2

1

The precise pine value increment is dependant upon the MCP/Varietal genetics adopted, silviculture regime, and site index, amongst other factors

2

BLV refers to ‘bare land value’, which can be thought of as the NPV of a single rotation

Gain to be

achieved

from a 10%

reduction in

silviculture

costs

MCP/Varietal

1

Site prep

Competition control

Fertilisation

Planting

Base OP BLV

2

2.53.0

Advantages of AG’s US MCP and Varietal loblolly pine ‘genetic chips’ over industry standard OP
the story –as highlights

The ArborGen Opportunity –how do advanced genetics add value?

8

*Vsualrepresentation of smaller core in radiata pine,

leaving greater 4x2 structural component –

representation only

1.Superior log out-turns

More volume

... on less land

Higher saw-log out-turn

Note: Saw-logs sell for 2.5-3x pulp logs

2. Improved uniformity

3. Shorter rotation length

4. Survival / disease resistance

the story –as highlights
Pre-requisite #1 –the germplasm advantage

9

Federal Paper Board Co.

Germplasm repository (i.e. base

genetics and superior crosses) from

hundreds of years in aggregate of tree

improvement by leading international

forestry players

Germplasm is critical –technology alone is an insufficient pre-condition for success

the story –as highlights
Pre-requisite #2 –the ‘tree machine’ has been built

10

There are no global integrated commercial competitors to ArborGen in this arena

~US$300 million invested over 15+ years to complete the model

No-one else has been able to build / put in place ArborGen’s ‘end-to-end’ integrated Tree Machine platform

Intellectual property portfolio is secure, with ‘freedom to operate’

Prerequisite #3–global commercialisation channels have been built
Campinas, SP, BR

(South America HQ)

Summerville, SC (Global HQ)

Whakatane, NZ

(Australasia HQ)

Brazil

Foothold established

Large eucalyptus market

opportunity

Producing ~55m pa

eucalyptus & pine

~10% of market

New Zealand and Australia

~40% share of total NZ

addressable market

Customers include majority of

the largest landowners in NZ

Producing ~20 million pa

Upside from NZ Government’s

1billion 10-year tree planting

program

United States

United States

~30% share of total SE loblolly

pine market

Customers include some of

the largest landowners

Producing 300+ million pa

(incl~30m non-loblolly)

ArborGen operates ~14 nurseries, 15 seed orchards, 30 distribution centers, and 2 R&D facilities around the world

11

US market advanced genetics conversion –the ‘big picture’
12

Value of

Advanced

genetics

time

* Directional representation only as to timing and volumes

Selling

Price of

seedling

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Seedling sales

M per annum

OP

MCP & VARIETAL

US Stage 1–moving customers from commodity OP to ArborGen’s MCP products
USc

Genetics are proven

Compelling value-proposition for ArborGen to up-sell existing customers to MCP

ArborGen customers want the product today

ArborGen’s existing manufacturing process is in place and proven

ArborGen has an established pricing ladder already in place for MCP (refer slide 20)

MCP production has zero technology risk

MCP products do not need regulatory approval

Competition is limited –a new entrant would take time (amongst other things!)

•Would require scale manufacturing capability

•Would need customer channels and customer relationships

•Would require MCP product to sell!

−Take 8+ years just to develop a commercial MCP orchard from ‘standing start’

−... assuming you possessed the genetics to do so

For ArborGen, MCP-conversion is a lower-riskdeliverable strategy

13

Improvement in ArborGen’s financials is consistent with ‘big picture’ progress
14

(AG Consolidated

under US GAAP)

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

20152016201720182019F

EBITDA

1

US$ millions

1

Pre transaction-related costs, impairments, and one-off non-operating costs

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

20152016201720182019F

Gross Margin

1

US$ millions

1

Pre depreciation

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

20152016201720182019F

Operating Cashflow

(post interest, pre capex & nwc)

US$ millions

-$20

-$15

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

20152016201720182019F

Free Cashflow

US$ millions

Note: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019F (forecast) refer to fiscal years ending 31 March.

the story –as highlights
How does this all relate to the Rubicon share price?

15

Value Upside

1

Bank debt + capitalised finance leases, less cash at bank

2

After final US$10m deferred payment to be made (on the AG acquisition) on 1 July 2018, and receipt of US$2.5 million from the Tenon Liquidation in calendar Q3, 2018

Note: Ex-Cellforshareholders have 5% warrants outstanding over ArborGen

RBC

Current

Book value

Mid-Case

Enterprise value

-

US$ m

106

170

363

less

RBC debt

1,2

- US$m

-18

-18

-18

RBC market capitalisation

- US$ m

88

152

345

NZ$:US$ cross rate

0.6900

0.7205

0.7205

RBC market capitalisation

- NZ$ m

127

211

479

RBC share price implied

- NZ$ cps

0.26

$


0.43

$


0.98

$


% increase over the current RBC share price

66%

277%

Annual Report Note 15

the story –as highlights
How can we think about book value? –i.e. + 66%

16

Value Upside

CYforecast

numbers

CY+2numbers required to support

book value, using mid-point of the

above multiple metrics

=> We believe the Book Value of NZ 43 cps is supportable and achievable

Note: CY means current fiscal year ending Mar 31 2019, and CY+2 means two fiscal years beyond the current fiscal year (undiscounted)

CYCY+2

Curr priceBook Value

106Implied AG value in RBCUS$m170

0.26RBC share price impliedNZ$ cps0.43

2xRevenue multipleCY+22-3x

15.1EBITDA multiple CY+210-15x

50-55RevenueUS$m68

~ 7EBITDAUS$m14

=> We believe these driver assumptions are supportable and achievable
the story –as highlights

... And how can we think about the mid-case value?

17

Value Upside

Note 15 to RBC Annual Report

1

3

4

2

1

Estimate only, as market was materially impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey , which distorted the last season

2

10-year terminal point, per Note 15 to the 2018 Rubicon Annual Report

3

Excludes ~ 30 million of non-loblolly pine seedlings

Mid-case

Mar'18AScenario

2

Market seedling size - m/pa800

1

1,000

AG market share - %30%40%

OP69%16335%140

MCP & Varietal31%7365%260

AG loblolly seedling volume - m/pa236

3

400

Average US$ margin p/seedlng ~6c

3

~4x

US market - loblolly pine

the story –as highlights
... And how can we think about the mid-case value?

Market Size

18

Value Upside

1

Unsurprisingly, the seedling market size is correlated to wood use (with a harvesting -> replant ‘lag’)

Previous ‘mid-cycle’ market size ~1 billion per annum in loblolly pine seedlings

The current cycle should repeat that seedling volume pa

One of the key leading indicators (of wood use) is US housing starts (see chart below)

... and also renovation and remodelling growth with expanding US economy and retail spending

... and restricted (tariff-based) imports of lumber into the US

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

197519801985199019952000200520102015

Total New Privately Owned US Housing Units Started

Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Rate 1960 -2018

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Housing Starts

Current

Mid-cycle

1

1

Tenon estimate

the story –as highlights
... And how can we think about the mid-case value?

Margin p/seedling

19

Value Upside

US advanced genetics pricing ladder is already in place ...

The industry is prepared to pay for superior genetics

Forest owners are already paying 7x base OP prices

The immediate focus is on MCP

MCP pricing is 3.0 –4.5x base OP pricing

AG’s US margin per seedling will grow with -

Mix change

Value share increase (as log prices recover)

Inflation

Incremental annual improvement in genetic-value of AG’s MCP and Varietal products

Varietals transition

Comparisons with the more ‘advanced’ NZ market today are interesting ...

Current AG bareroot MCP price in NZ is ~US$26 cents per seedling

Current AG bareroot MCP price in US is US$19.5

1

cents per seedling

2

1

ArborGen’s MCP-select list price

-US$

the story –as highlights
... And how can we think about the mid-case value?

Market Share %

20

Value Upside

Market Share growth from 30% to 40% is a function of -

The value delivered to the forest grower by AG’s genetics

A portfolio of improved products in the pipeline

The absence of any serious market competition

AG’s leadership position in production and quality

Targeted capacity expansion in higher-growth provenances

Key short-term constraint is MCP seed supply–

Currently selling all MCP that AG can produce in key provenances

Supply is a constraint for the next twoyears

Annual MCP supply should then move to a surplus situation

AG’s annual US growing capacity is nota constraining factor

Current capacity is ~330m+ loblolly seedlings pa

Plans are in place to increase capacity over time to ~400m units ... @ cost ~US$5 million

3

the story –as highlights
... And how can we think about the mid-case value?

Product Mix

21

Value Upside

US product-mix assumptions are not aggressive compared with NZ -

NZ was an ‘early adopter’ of advanced genetics

On the basis of the NZ adoption curve, AG’s US market assumption is conservative

To date, MCP adoption has been constrained by MCP supply

This constraint is being removed (refer previous slide)

Recent history of growth in MCP + Varietal (combined) unit sales ...

... supports a continued advanced genetics adoption thesis

4

2017A 2018A 2019F

50m

100m

Units m

Note: 2017A, 2018A, 2019F (forecast) refer to fiscal years ending 31 March.

CurrentTerminal

ArborGen - NZ80%

ArborGen - US31%65%

MCP & Varietal

22
?????

Another slice: Brazil ‘foothold’ established -significant growth potential

#1 Eucalyptus Varietals

Conditions are favorable for ArborGen to become aleading supplier of Eucalyptus varieties

Non-integrated growers do not have access to advanced genetics

Growers are facing continued pressure to improve productivity

Market is under-served

ArborGen is well positioned

Has 20-year license to sell IP Brazil’s high-performance varieties in this market

Has production / sales rights to other clones under confidential agreements

Is currently developing its own superior varieties for later commercialisation

Sold ~50 million eucalyptus varieties in 2018 fiscal year

... representing <10% of total market and <20% of the addressable market

... and AG’s addressable market will expand as its genetics portfolio and provenance-reach grows

Short-term weakness / uncertainty is expected ...

Disruption with industry activity (e.g. Eldorado takeover)

Political and economic uncertainty

AG’s Brazil operation will remain at the current ~EBITDA breakeven (pre R&D) in the immediate term

Brazil market size will recover with wider country economic recovery

AG forecasts the Brazil eucalyptus seedling market to grow from ~ 600m seedlings pa to ~ 900m pa

23
?????

Another slice:Brazil ‘foothold’ established -significant growth potential

#2 Loblolly Pine MCP & Varietals

Conditions are favourablefor ArborGen to enter the loblolly market in Brazil

The market lags the US in terms of maturity and availability of genetics

...and is under-served

... with non-integrated growers planting mostly low genetic OP seedlings

ArborGen’s strategy for loblolly market share growth ...

Leverage its own superior loblolly genetics from the US (OP elite and MCP)

Leverage varieties unique to Brazil (ex the CellForacquisition)

Establish field trials across multiple regions to enable it to expand its provenance reach

Sold ~8 million seedlings in 2018 fiscal year

... representing just 11% of the Brazil market currently

This should growas AG expands it provenance reach and increases its ‘advanced’ sales

AG projects loblolly market to grow over next 5-10 years to ~130 million seedlings

ArborGen sits at the intersection of a growing global wood demand-supply imbalance
Enhancing the productivity of forestry is the answer to this emerging imbalance ...

The advanced-genetics transformation that occurred in agriculture will repeat itself in forestry

ArborGen’s goal is to revolutionize productivity standards in the global forestry industry

The technology revolution that has occurred in agriculture will also occur in forestry

ArborGen is a ‘first mover’ in commercializing advanced forestry-genetics technologies

ArborGen’s technology is advanced, proprietary, and can create significant value

The market opportunity is large

ArborGen has a pipeline of commercial products that do not require regulatory approvals

ArborGen has no commercial global integrated competitor

ArborGen is the largest global provider of commercial tree seedlings

ArborGen’s model is lower risk through the breadth of its product pipeline, multiple end-market uses and geographies, the full

spectrum of technologies it applies, and the existing market channels already in place

the story –as highlights

ArborGen’s Story –a one page concluding “snapshot”

24

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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