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Global Dairy Update July 2018

Operational Update31 July 2018FCGConsumer Staples

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

JULY 2018

KEY DATES

Mid September 2018

FY18 Annual Results

Announcement

12 November 2018

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

1 December 2018

Compliance Date for Share

Standard 2018/19 Season

December 2018

FY19 Q1 Business Update

• New Zealand production increased in June

over previous period but accounts for only a

small portion of total milk production for the

full season.

• US and European exports up. New Zealand

exports slightly down and Australian exports

flat in May.

• In March import demand grew in all regions

except Latin America and Middle East

and Africa.

• Fonterra’s early season milk collection in the

first month of the 2018/19 season, stood at

13 million kgMS. This represents less than 1%

of the full season forecast.

• Muddy Buns, Dirty Dirty Bread, or Zang Zang Bao as they’re

known in China, are creating a social media frenzy and

driving a further craving for butter around the world.

• Creative tea and coffee trends good news for

New Zealand dairy.

• Half a million litres of Pahiatua groundwater to be saved

every day.

%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

NEW  ZEALAND

PRODUCTION INCREASED

IN JUNE OVER PREVIOUS

PERIOD BUT ACCOUNTS

FOR ONLY A SMALL

PORTION OF TOTAL MILK

PRODUCTION FOR THE

FULL SEASON

Total New Zealand milk

production increased 11% in

June, compared to the same

period last year. This early in

the season, June accounts for

only a small portion of total

milk production for the full

season. The increase over

last season partly represents

improved conditions at the

start of the season. In the

early part of the season,

supply is also supported by

winter milking.

For the 12 months to June,

milk production was flat

compared to the same

period last year.

Fonterra collections have

been reported for June, see

page 5 for details.

Australian milk

production increased

3% in May, compared to

the same period last year,

despite variable winter

conditions across key

production regions.

Production for the 12 months

to May was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

This growth continues to

be driven by south east

Australian production.

Fonterra collections

in Australia have been

reported for June, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

increased 2% in May,

compared to the same

period last year, driven

by better than expected

weather conditions.

European growth continues

to be driven by Germany,

up 3%. Italy, France and the

United Kingdom were up 8%,

2% and 4% respectively.

Production for the 12 months

to May was up 3% compared

to the same period the

previous year.

US milk production

increased 1% in May,

compared to the same

period last year.

The US continues to

increase production per

cow, averaging 931kg, up

7kg relative to the prior

comparable period.

Milk production for the 12

months to May increased by

1% compared to the same

period the previous year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

May 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

June 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

May 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

May 2018

0313

%

%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

US AND EUROPEAN

EXPORTS UP. NEW  ZEALAND

EXPORTS SLIGHTLY DOWN

AND AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

FLAT IN MAY

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased 3%, or

8,000 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

AMF and infant formula grew

7,000 MT and 6,000  MT,

respectively. This was offset

by a decline in WMP of

23,000 MT, or 20%.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 1%, or

26,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Growth

continued to be driven by

fluid and fresh dairy up 19%,

or 50,000 MT. WMP and

infant formula were up a

combined 62,000 MT for

the period. These gains were

partially offset by a combined

decline of 54,000 MT in

cheese and AMF.

EU dairy exports increased

by 4%, or 14,000 MT, in

February compared to the

same period last year.

Growth was across the

majority of export categories,

in particular infant formula

and SMP, up a combined

19%, or 19,000 MT. A decline

of 11%, or 12,000 MT, was

seen in the largest category,

fluid and fresh dairy.

Exports for the 12 months

to February were up 7%,

or 341,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

SMP continued to be the

primary driver, up 40%, or

225,000 MT. In addition,

growth continued across

most export categories

except for caseinate and

butter, down a combined

53,000 MT, or 23%.

US dairy exports increased

by 15%, or 30,000 MT, in

May as US milk production

growth continued. SMP,

lactose and WPC and WPI

remain the primary growth

categories adding 27,000 MT

over the same period

last year.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 8%, or

177,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Growth was seen across

all categories apart from

fluid and fresh dairy and

casein, down a combined

10,000 MT. Cheese,

SMP and lactose saw the

highest growth, adding

37,000 MT, 34,000 MT and

33,000 MT respectively.

Australian dairy exports

were flat in May compared

to the same period last

year. Combined growth in

fluid and fresh dairy and

infant formula of 3,000  MT,

was offset by a combined

decline in SMP and WMP of

3,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 6%, or

41,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid and fresh dairy, SMP

and infant formula make

up the majority of the 6%

growth, adding a combined

60,000 MT. However, these

gains remain dampened

by declines in butter, WMP

and whey powder, down a

combined 16,000  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

86

1

7

Export change for the 12

months to May 2018

Export change for the 12

months to May 2018

Export change for the 12

months to May 2018

Export change for the 12

months to February 2018

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IN MARCH IMPORT

DEMAND GREW  IN ALL

REGIONS EXCEPT LATIN

AMERICA AND MIDDLE

EAST AND  AFRICA

Latin American dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

6%, or 10,000 MT, in

March, compared to the

same period last year. This

was driven by three out of

the four largest categories:

cheese, fluid and fresh dairy

and WMP down a combined

10,000 MT, or 13%.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were down 2%,

or 39,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Large declines in WMP and

AMF of 95,000 MT and

18,000 MT respectively were

the primary cause of this

downside. This was partially

offset by continued strong

demand for SMP, which was

up 53,000  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 6%, or 23,000  MT,

in March, compared to

the same period last year.

Increased demand for WMP,

fluid and fresh dairy and

SMP drove the upside for

the period, up a combined

24,000 MT. These gains were

partially offset by declines in

whey powder of 3,000MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 1%, or

48,000MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Continued growth in WMP

and cheese, up a combined

102,000 MT, partially offset

continued decline in SMP,

which was down 35,000  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 2%, or 9,000  MT,

in March, compared to the

same period last year. This

was driven by fluid and fresh

dairy and cheese down

a combined 32,000  MT.

However growth in WMP

and SMP of a combined

19,000 MT, slightly offset

this downside.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 1%, or

30,000 MT, compared to the

same period last year. This

was driven by strong growth

in SMP and cheese, up a

combined 91,000 MT. These

gains were partially offset

by the continuing decline in

WMP of 50,000  MT.

China dairy import

volumes² increased 3%,

or 7,000 MT, in March

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

a combined 14,000 MT, or

22%, growth in fluid and

fresh dairy, butter and lactose

categories. Declines in WMP

of 6,000 MT partially offset

this growth.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 17%, or

394,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports across

all key categories up for the

period. Infant formula, WMP

and SMP imports added a

combined 220,000 MT of

additional volumes.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

117

1

2

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.2 China has suspended trade data, citing system technical issues. Based on exports to

China, we estimate April volumes grew 18% compared to the previous comparable period.

%%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Increase for the season from

1 June to 30 June

Increase for the season from

1 June to 30 June

Increase for the season from

1 June to 30 June

Increase for the 2017/18

season compared to the

previous season

14139

24

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk

collection across

Australia for the

2017/18 season reached

153 million kgMS,

30 million kgMS higher

than the 2016/17 season.

In June milk collection reached

10 million kgMS, 14% ahead of

the same period last season.

This was in part due to gains in

market share.

Winter conditions have been

variable across key production

regions with rainfall surpluses

(Tasmania and south-west

Victoria) and rainfall deficits

(northern Victoria and

Gippsland) typifying winter

to date. This has led to an

increasing number of suppliers

drying off herds earlier than

usual in preparation for the

2018/2019 season.

North Island milk collection

in June reached 10 million

kgMS, 14% above June

last season.

This was driven by volume

growth in Northland, Waikato,

Bay of Plenty and Taranaki.

South Island milk collection

in June reached 3 million kgMS,

9% above June last season.

Good pasture conditions in

Otago and Southland due

to favourable weather drove

the increase.

Fonterra’s early season

milk collection in the

first month of the

2018/19 season stood

at 13 million kgMS.

This represents less

than 1% of the full

season forecast.

These volumes are small in the

context of the full season, as is

usual for this time of the year.

The increases over last June are

also small and are due partly

to slightly more favourable

weather and pasture conditions

at the start of this season, in

both the North and South

Islands. A further increase

in winter milk contracts this

season has also contributed

to supply.

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

%

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL MAY SEP DEC FEB MAY JUL SEP DEC FEB JUL 







,

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar fell

sharply late in the month

on the back of the stronger

US dollar.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

17 July 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 7 August 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.8

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,255

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

24.7

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD2,973/MT

2.4

WMP

USD1,974/MT

1.5

SMP

USD 3,596/MT

3.2

CHEDDAR

USD5,629/MT

5.2

AMF

USD4,953/MT

8.1

BUTTER

USD 4,602/MT

9.6

RENNET CASEIN

24,717

MT

LATEST AUCTION

610,185

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
OUR PERFORMANCE

'Muddy Buns' cleaning

up the butter market

Muddy Buns, Dirty Dirty

Bread, or Zang Zang Bao

as they’re known in China,

are creating a social media

frenzy and driving a further

craving for butter around

the world.

Fonterra Edgecumbe is

all geared up to handle

this global trend and is

commissioning a new

butter line which will nearly

double the factory’s butter

sheet production from

4,500 metric tonnes to

7,000 metric tonnes.

Fonterra General Manager

Marketing, Global

Foodservice, Susan Cassidy

says “The Dirty Dirty Bread

can best be described as a

chocolate croissant. People

love the flaky chocolate

pastry that’s coated in rich

chocolate ganache and

sprinkled with cocoa powder.

“It makes it impossible to

keep your face clean while

eating. They are popular with

celebrities who have taken

to social media to share

images of their ‘muddy bun

face’ experience.”

Ms Cassidy says demand

for butter is as strong as

ever. People want natural

products and they are

prepared to pay for them.

And that’s why global butter

prices, including here in

New Zealand, continue to be

strong.

“Even in temperatures of

minus ten degrees, crowds of

people are queuing for hours

to get their hands on their

Muddy Bun.”

Edgecumbe’s Operations

Manager, Allan Muggeridge,

says the first butter sheet will

roll off the new butter line on

1 September.

“We’ve been watching

demand for butter build for

a number of years now. The

building part of the project

started in May so it’s been

a quick turnaround to get

it up and running,” says

Mr Muggeridge.

Fifteen local contractors

have been employed to

complete the expansion at

the site, which employees

380 people.

“It’s been a real boost

to the local business

community, especially after

the rough past 12 months

Edgecumbe has had,” says

Mr Muggeridge.

Creative tea and coffee

trends good news for

New Zealand dairy

It’s tea, but not as you know

it. Right now people are

adding more than just milk

and sugar to their cuppa’s

and Fonterra is set to meet

the demand for adventurous

tea and coffee drinks around

the world.

Beverages made with

yoghurt, topped with

cream cheese and mixed

with cream are growing in

popularity, leading Fonterra

to establish a new channel

within its Global Foodservice

business, Beverage House.

Almost 600 million cups of

tea and coffee are consumed

out-of-home daily in the

Asia Pacific region, a 22%

increase on five years ago.

General Manager Marketing,

Global Foodservice,

Susan Cassidy says Beverage

House will provide premium

Anchor Food Professionals

products to the growing

number of modern coffee

and tea houses, beverage

kiosks and dessert bars.

“In Asia, consumers are

moving from traditional

‘straight’ brews to drinks with

dairy, as they look for a more

indulgent way to enjoy their

daily fix of coffee or tea,” says

Ms Cassidy.

The trend of adding dairy to

more traditional beverages

started in China with the tea

macchiato, which is green

tea topped with a mix of

cream and cream cheese.

“This trend was really driven

by youth and took off, with

people queuing for hours to

get the latest creation from

their favourite tea house.”

“We moved quickly and as

a result the tea macchiato

alone grew the volume of

our cream and cream cheese

sales by 47% in the first half

of the 2017/18 financial year.”

Since the start of 2018

Beverage House has sold

more than 30,000 metric

tonnes of product, enough

to create the equivalent

of more than 400 million

tea macchiatos.

“Beverage House has mainly

been focussed on China

so far, but the potential for

growth in other markets is

huge. We are now using what

we’ve learnt to look at other

markets where beverages

with dairy are growing

in popularity.”

Beverage House sits

alongside Fonterra’s existing

Foodservice channels: Quick

Serve Restaurants, Italian

Kitchen and Asian Bakery.

“Having a standalone

channel within our

Foodservice business means

we can be more targeted

with the service we offer our

beverage customers and gain

a better understanding of

changing consumer tastes

and trends,” says Ms Cassidy.

Shifting more milk, quicker,

into value-added products

through our Consumer

and Foodservice business

is a key part of Fonterra’s

strategy to add more value

to our farmers’ milk.

FONTERRA EDGECUMBE CREAM

PLANT MANAGER DOUG GERRY WITH

ENGINEERING PROJECT MANAGER

WILL ROUSE SHARING THEIR ‘MUDDY

BUN FACE’ EXPERIENCE

For more details on the
commitments –

8

OUR CO-OP

Half a million litres of

Pahiatua groundwater

to be saved every day

Half a million litres of

Pahiatua groundwater (about

the same as 18 milk tanker

loads) will be saved every day

thanks to the development

and installation of a

ground-breaking reclaimed

water system at the local

Fonterra site.

The site team came up with

an innovative way to reuse

water from condensation

that’s produced during

the milk powder

manufacturing process.

Robert Spurway, Fonterra’s

COO Global Operations,

says the water-saving

initiative is a testament

to the Pahiatua team’s

innovative and can-do

approach to sustainability.

“Pahiatua is already Fonterra

New Zealand’s most water

efficient site, and some

clever thinking has taken it

to the next level.”

“As an organisation, we’ve

committed to a 20%

reduction in water use by

2020. Pahiatua is well ahead

of the game.”

Tracey Collis, Tararua District

Council Mayor, says she

is “extremely proud of the

team at Fonterra and their

ongoing commitment to

sustainability. On several

occasions they have hosted

councillors, staff and Iwi on

site to share information on

new technology and view the

systems in action.”

“We very much appreciate

the transparency and passion

shown by Fonterra to

continually use technological

efficiencies which also have

environmental benefits. This

creates a win-win outcome

for all.”

Horizons Regional Council’s

environment committee

chair Gordon McKellar also

commends the team and

says it’s great to see Fonterra

introducing innovative

systems that will directly

reduce water use in Pahiatua.

“Practices like reclaimed

water systems are a great

way to involve staff in

sustainability initiatives

that will improve their

local environment,” says

Cr McKellar.

The P3 milk powder plant at

Pahiatua (built in 2015) was

already 100% self-sufficient

for water, meaning it does

not use any groundwater in

the manufacturing process.

However, the evaporators

often produced more water

than was required and the

excess was typically irrigated

onto surrounding farmland.

Now, rather than irrigate

the excess water, the

new reclaimed water

system treats the excess

water via reverse osmosis

and chlorination before

combining it with the site’s

main water supply for

general use.

The successful water re-use

project is a hat tip to good

old kiwi ingenuity and the

benefit of a team-based

approach to problem solving.

Site Operations Manager

Glenn Broughton says he

is incredibly proud of the

project. “After seeing an

opportunity to innovate,

the team completed the

project in an extremely

cost-effective manner.”

In 2017 Fonterra made

six commitments to

New Zealand water ways,

including reducing water

use (20% by 2020) and

improving wastewater

quality at all our

manufacturing plants.

PAHIATUA OPS SITE MANAGER

GLENN BROUGHTON WITH

FONTERRA COO GLOBAL OPERATIONS

ROBERT SPURWAY

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES









,





EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to May; New Zealand to June.

NOTE: Data for EU to February; New Zealand, US and Australia to May.

NOTE: Data for Asia, China, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to March.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

DEC NOV JAN

JUL

AUG MAY

SEP FEB

OCT JUN

,
,

,

,

,

,



, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2018

JUNE


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

13.311. 813.0%13.311. 813.0%

North Island10.49.114.2%10.49.114.2%

South Island2.92.69.2%2.92.69.2%

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2018

JUNE


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2016/17

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Fonterra Australia9.98.713.9%153.4123.424.3%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 JULY 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2017)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

24,717610,185

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(3.4%)1.8%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,2553,363

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(6.1%)4.0%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.8%)–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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    2018-08-31

    1 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE AUGUST 2018 KEY DATES 13 September 2018 FY18 Annual Results Announcement 12 November 2018 Fonterra Shareholders' Fund Annual Meeting 1 December 2018 Compliance Date for Share Standard 2018/19 Season December 2018 FY19 Q1 Business Update • Early se…”

  • FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update June 2018
    2018-07-03

    1 GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE JUNE 2018 KEY DATES Late September 2018 FY18 Annual Results Announcement 12 November 2018 Fonterra Shareholders' Fund Annual Meeting 1 December 2018 Compliance Date for Share Standard 2018/19 Season December 2018 FY19 Q1 Business Update • New Zeal…”