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MLN – August 2018 monthly update

Operational Update13 August 2018MLNFinancials

1
Monthly Update

August 2018

MLN NAV

$

1.03

SHARE PRICE

$

0.89

DISCOUNT

1

11.3

%

as at 31 July 2018

A word from the Manager

Market Overview

Global markets continued their strong run in July despite

some jitters in the technology sector towards the end of the

month. The MSCI World Index climbed 3.1%, supported by

the US S&P 500 Index (+3.6%) which was lifted by a solid

start to US earnings season. European markets also gained

significant ground (Stoxx 600 Index +3.1%) and emerging

markets posted modest gains (MSCI Emerging Markets

Index +1.2%).

The change in fortunes of the US technology sector during

the month was a focal point. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100

Index (home to Apple, Amazon and Microsoft) started the

month strongly, gaining almost 6% and hitting a new all-

time high at one point during July. However, disappointing

earnings results late in the month from a handful of large-

cap tech companies like Netflix and Facebook caused

the market to sell off and the Nasdaq to close the month

up just 2.2%. This late weakness in tech stocks, combined

with strong US economic growth data (4.1% GDP growth

reported), what appeared to be a temporary truce in the

ongoing trade war, and increasing interest rates created a

favourable environment for cyclical stocks. This caused US

industrial companies (+7%) and banks (+5%) to outperform

tech stocks (+2%) by the widest margin since President

Trump was elected in 2016.

Portfolio Developments

Reporting season was a mixed bag for the Marlin portfolio in

July, with solid results from Alphabet, Expedia and United

Parcel Service unable to offset disappointing results from

eBay, Facebook and Signature Bank.

On the positive side of the ledger, Alphabet (+9%) reported

23% revenue growth in the second quarter, calling out

strong mobile search growth, YouTube and an inflection as

its cloud computing business. It was also pleasing to see

limited impact on advertising so far from new European data

protection regulations (GDPR).

Expedia (+11%) posted a quarterly earnings result that

surpassed market expectations as the company was able to

leverage very healthy revenue growth of 11% into underlying

earnings growth of 18%. The market had been concerned

recently about Expedia’s dependence on expensive digital

advertising channels for customer acquisition, but this result

helped allay these fears by showing strong bookings growth

despite pulling back on marketing spend.

United Parcel Service (+13%) grew earnings 23% versus

the prior year, aided by 10% revenue growth and the

recently enacted US tax cuts. The strong economy is clearly

benefiting United Parcel Service’s delivery volumes and the

company is actively exploring ways to increase automation

and add capacity so it can continue to capitalise on growing

e-commerce parcel volumes.

On the negative side of the ledger, eBay’s (-8%) quarterly

result was slightly disappointing, with revenue growth of

9% coming in lower than expectations. In our opinion the

big picture has not changed. We believe eBay should still

grow earnings by over 10% per annum, with potential upside

by better monetising advertising space on its website and

capturing a greater share of customer wallets by in-sourcing

payment services from PayPal.

Signature Bank’s (-14%) share price fell in July as its results

showed that recent rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve are

compressing its net interest margin (the spread between

what is receives on loans and pays on deposits). While a

strong economic environment has allowed it to grow its loan

book by 12% over the last year, increasing funding costs

restricted growth in its net interest income to 4.5%. While the

result is disappointing, we are pleased with both the growth

and credit quality of Signature Bank’s loan book, which we

believe will ultimately allow for stronger earnings growth as

the Federal Reserve tightening cycle slows.

Facebook (-11%) received a lot of publicity late in July.

The significant fall in the company’s share price came

after announcing it would need to hire more staff and

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis)

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.08

2
Sector Split

as at 31 July 2018

Key Details

as at 31 July 2018

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 November 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every 1% of

underperformance relative to the

change in the NZ 90 Day Bank Bill

Index with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

15% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.02

SHARES ON ISSUE

119m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$106m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

33

%


TECHNOLOGY

10

%

INDUSTRIALS

22

%


CONSUMER

22

%


HEALTHCARE

Geographical Split

as at 31 July 2018

18

%

WEST EUROPE

73

%

NORTH AMERICA

8

%

FINANCIALS

5

%


ASIA

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

increase spending on security, data protection and content

moderation. These investments are aimed at reducing the

spread of fake news, eliminating election interference, and

also providing users with tools to control how personal

data is used for advertising. The scale of these investments

caught the market by surprise and management’s margin

targets are lower than we would have liked. That said, if these

investments ultimately increase trust and engagement by

Facebook’s community of 2.5 billion users, then this spending

will help the company maximise the long-term value of its

various platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and

WhatsApp). It is important to put the disappointing guidance

in context: Facebook announced advertising revenues that

grew over 40%, global user growth of 11%, and a 31% growth

in earnings. Facebook owns two of the largest media assets in

the world (Facebook and Instagram), to which advertisers are

allocating an increasing share of their advertising budgets.

Despite the slowdown in growth, Facebook is still expected

to generate more than 20% per annum growth in revenue

and earnings over the next few years.

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

2

%


ENERGY

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

July’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

UNITED PARCEL

SERVICE

+13

%

EXPEDIA

+11

%

CORE LABORATORIES

-11

%

FACEBOOK

-11

%

SIGNATURE BANK

-14

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 31 July 2018

ALPHABET

8

%

TJX COMPANIES

6

%

PAYPAL

5

%

ESSILOR

5

%

ALIBABA

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

1.20

$

0.8 0

$

0.60

$

0.40

$

1.80

$

0.20

$

0.00

$

1.40

Nov

2016

$

1.60

Nov

2017

$

2.00

Total Shareholder Return to 31 July 2018

Performance to 31 July 2018

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

Since Inception

(annualised)

Corporate Performance

Total Shareholder Return+4.0%+10.8%+24.8%+9.6%+6.6%

Adjusted NAV Return+0.8%+5.7%+22.7%+8.8%+7.0%

Manager Performance

Gross Performance Return +1.1%+6.9%+25.9%+12.7%+10.7%

Benchmark Index^+1.8%+4.9%+18.2%+10.1%+8.0%

3

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 October 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and hedging of currency movements, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing

it (if it elects to do so) to acquire up to 5.9m of its

shares on market in the year to 31 October 2018

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 16 April 2018, a new issue of warrants (MLNWC)

was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for

every four Marlin shares held

»Exercise Price = $0.83 per warrant, to be adjusted

down for dividends declared during the period up

to the Exercise Date

»Exercise Date = 12 April 2019

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form will be posted to warrant holders in

March 2019


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.