GMT Investor Briefing
Level 2, 18 Viaduct Harbour Avenue, Auckland | PO Box 90940, Victoria Street West, Auckland 1142
Tel +64 9 375 6060 | www.goodman.com/nz
nzx release+
GMT Investor Briefing
Date 4 October 2018
Release Immediate
A briefing for institutional investors and analysts is being held at Highbrook Business
Park today.
A copy of the presentation has been provided to the NZX.
For f
urther information, please contact:
John Dakin Andy Eakin
Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer
Goodman (NZ) Limited Goodman (NZ) Limited
(09) 375 6063(09) 375 6077
(021) 321 541(021) 305 316
James Spence
Dir
ector Investment Management
Goodman
(NZ) Limited
(09) 903 3269
(021) 538 934
About Goodman Property Trust:
GMT is an externally managed unit trust, listed on the NZX. It has a market capitalisation of around $2.0 billion, ranking it
in the top 20 of all l isted investment vehicles. The Manager of the Trust is a subsidiary of the ASX list ed Goodman
Group, Goodman Group is also the Trust’s largest investor with a cornerstone unitholding of 21%.
GMT is New Zealand’s leading industrial and business space provider. It has a substantial property portfolio, with a
value of $2.3 billion, after recently contracted sales. The Trust holds an investment grade credit rating of BBB from
Standard & Poor’s.
---
Investor
Briefing
Goodman Property Trust
4 October 2018
Contents
Unless otherwise indicated, all numerical data provided in this presentation is stated as at 31 March 2018.
All dollar values are NZD unless otherwise stated. All figures are rounded.
Presented by:
John Dakin
Chief Executive Officer
James Spence
Director –Investment Management
Michael Gimblett
General Manager -Development
Andy Eakin
Chief Financial Officer
Auckland Focus3
GMT Portfolio12
Development Programme24
Financial29
Summary32
2
Auckland
focus
Auckland
context
4
Auckland
Population1.7m
% of NZ popn35%
Urban area
1
607km
2
GDP growth
2
2.7%
Unemployment4.3%
Melbourne
Population4.9m
% of Auspopn20%
Urban area
1
2,543km
2
GDP growth
2
2.9%
Unemployment6.8%
Sydney
Population5.1m
% of Auspopn21%
Urban area
1
2,037km
2
GDP growth
2
2.9%
Unemployment6.0%
Brisbane
Population2.4m
% of Auspopn10%
Urban area
1
1,972km
2
GDP growth
2
2.9%
Unemployment7.4%
New Zealand
Australia
All statistics refer to greater city region unless stated.
1
Refers to urban area only, as defined by nation’s statistical areas
2
National statistic, average annual change to June 2018
Australian
industrial
market
comparison
+Auckland more land constrained than Australian markets
+Tight rental range across the Auckland market indicates no differential being paid for location in
contrast to Sydney and Melbourne
+Opportunity to drive market rentals in key locations with superior logistics qualities
AucklandSydneyMelbourneBrisbane
Prime Industrial stock (million m
2
)
4.811.510.35.4
Industrial land supply (ha)
1,1112,8156,6693,173
Prime warehouse rental ($/m
2
)
120-135119-19678-125108-117
Prime capitalisation rate
5.0%-5.5%4.5%-5.25%5.75%6%
Prime vacancy
2%1%4%4%
5
Statistics for greater city regions above reflect Goodman’s estimates and various agency reports.
Key logistics
infrastructure
6
Key
State Highway 1
Other State Highway
Rail
Auckland
Airport
Port of
Auckland
Wiri Inland
Port
Metroport
+Land constrained city driven
by geographic challenges
(harbours, topography)
+Experiencing increased
pressure on existing
infrastructure given
significant net migration
(circa 110,000 people last 4
years)
+Major infrastructure projects
underway
7
Auckland
industrial
market
+Economic growth fuelling occupier
demand
+Historically low vacancy and rising
market rents a feature of most
suburbs
+Industrial land values now being
driven by offshore demand and
residential conversion factors
Auckland industrial rentals
$/m
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018F
PrimeSecondary
Auckland industrial yields
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018F
PrimeSecondary
Auckland industrial vacancy
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018F
PrimeSecondary
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
South Auckland Industrial land values
$/m
2
Source: CBRE
8
Industrial
supply
+186,000sqm pa of new industrial space developed over the past ten years, utilising approximately
37ha of land pa
+Currently around 490ha of industrial land supply in core Auckland locations
+Total land supply expected to support 13 years of new development
East Tamaki
69ha
Wiri
251ha
Airport
Corridor
141ha
Mangere
17ha
Mt Wellington
8ha
Rosebank
2ha
Penrose
5ha
New South Auckland Industrial Stock
NLA million m
2
Auckland Industrial Land Supply
Source: CBRE & Goodman
7.0
7.2
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Total stock million sqm (LHS)New stock '000sqm (RHS)
Average new stock pa '000sqm (RHS)
Industrial land identified area includes south of Auckland harbour bridge, as far west as Rosebank Rd and as far south as Wiri.
Source: JLL & Goodman
Zoning
$290m
$160m
9
1
Key
Unitary plan zoning
Business –Heavy industry zone
Business –Light industry zone
Future urban zone
West Auckland
Glen Innes
East Tamaki
Penrose / Mt
Wellington
Auckland
Airport
Mount
Roskill
Wiri
Otahuhu
+Large quantity of industrial
stock re-zoned to other uses
within Auckland unitary plan
process
Industrial
re-zoning
influence
+Example –13,000m
2
GMT
development at Savill link for
NCI who relocated from Mt
Wellington industrial building
re-zoned to mixed use
10
Goodman NCI development
Existing NCI warehouse
11
e-Commerce
in NZ
GMT top ten customers split by subsidiary companies
1
% of portfolio income
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
New Zealand Post
DHL
Fletcher Building
Coda
Fliway Transport
Toll
Spicers
CSR Building Products
Officemax
Big Chill
+e-Commerce is a significant and growing part of global trade and has an estimated value of $3.8
trillion –twice the size of what it was five years ago
+New Zealanders spent a total of $3.6 billion online in 2017 ($746 per capita)
+Online shopping now delivers 8.1% of all retail spend in New Zealand
+The greater Auckland region accounted for 37% of online spend in 2017
+NZ Post delivered 38.9 million parcels in the month of December 2017 (9% increase on
December 2016)
e-Commerce sales by country
%of total retail sales in 2017
23.1%
19.1%
16.0%
12.6%
10.0%
9.0%
8.1%
7.9%7.9%
6.6%
3.2%
2.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Source: New Zealand Post
1
As at 31 March 2018
GMT
portfolio
Strategic
overview
13
Strategy
+High quality portfolio situated in key industrial locations close to
consumers
▪positioned to capitalise on growth in e-commerce and technological
change
+Strategic holdings provide development pipeline and urban regeneration
opportunities
▪number of estates held significantly below replacement cost
+Development programme improving asset quality and growth profile of
GMT
+Balance sheet capacity expected to support build out of remaining land
holdings
Targeting
+Increased growth in rental cashflows and cash earnings
+Creation of a lower capex portfolio
+Resilient portfolio with the balance sheet capacity to be opportunistic
should markets turn
GMT
overview
14
6.1years
WALT
1
$2.7bn
Property portfolio
1
6.2
%
Weighted average
capitalisation rate
1
1m sqm
Net lettable area
1
25.0
%
Look-through loan
to value ratio
2
98.2
%
Portfolio occupancy
1
260+
Customers
1
$2.0bn
Market capitalisation
3
1
Including contracted sales, as at 31 March 2018
2
Adjusted for all sales contracted as at 31 March 2018
3
As at 27 September 2018
Auckland
locations
+GMT assets situated in key
logistics locations, well suited to
assist in the creation of fast and
efficient supply chains
15
Portfolio statistics
1
Value ($m)2,746.7
Land area (ha)242.3
NLA (m2)1,111,244
$psmland1,133
1
Including contracted sales, as at 31 March 2018 (excludes Roma Rd)
2
Under contract
VXV Precinct (conditionally sold)
Central Park (sold)
2
Asset
recycling
16
DISPOSALS
$1.2 billion
ACQUISITIONS
$267 million
1
DEVELOPMENTS
$672 million
2
5 year programme
Gateway Warehouses development (artists impression), HighbrookBusiness Park
Roma Road Estate, Mt Roskill, Auckland
Developed
Bought
Sold
1
Includes Roma Rd acquisition
2
Development starts (TPC including land)
VXV Precinct, Auckland CBD
+Portfolio now predominately Auckland
industrial
+Improving quality reflected in the
portfolio metrics
+Like-for-like NPI growth of 3.9% in
2018 and 2.8% in 2017
+98% occupancy
+Large number of pending expiries
secured in 2018 YTD with only 10% of
portfolio income due to expire over the
FY19 and FY20 years
Portfolio
transformed
17
Key metricsMarch 2018March 2013
Auckland weighting99%92%
Portfolio occupancy
98%96%
Weighted average cap rate
6.2%8.1%
Weighted average lease term (years)
6.15.3
Development commitments ($m)
164.8117.8
Relative property return
1
2.9%-0.2%
Industrial
60.0%
Development
Land12.0%
Office Park
28.0%
MH/DJ –to be 31 March
post contracted sales
1
MSCI New Zealand Universe index
2
Post contracted sales, as at 31 March 2018
Industrial
94.8%
Development
Land
4.5%
Office Park
0.7%
Asset diversity 2018
2
Asset diversity 2013
Portfolio
matrix
+Strategic decision to focus investment
in key locations within the Auckland
industrial market
+93% of core assets have been
developed by Goodman
+84% of assets sold have been office
+Value add estates offer future
opportunity
Preferred location
Higher quality
Core assets Value-add Sold properties Future disposals
18
19
Highbrook
Business
Park
Metrics
1
NLA434,107m
2
Land area107.0ha
Site coverage41%
Value$1,192m
Value (psmland area)$1,114/m
2
WALE6.0 years
Average age6.4 years
% complete82%
Cap rate5.8%
1
As at 31 March 2018
20
Other core
estates
SavillLink
The Gate Industry Park
M20 Business Park
WestneyIndustry Park
Metrics
1
NLA
426,015m
2
Land area
96.7ha
Site coverage
44%
Value
$800m
Value (psmland
area)
$834/m
2
WALE
6.2 years
Average age
12.4 years
% complete
96%
Cap rate
6.5%
1
As at 31 March 2018
Value-add
estates
Penrose Industrial Estate
Tamaki Estate
Connect Industrial Estate
Metrics
1
NLA
92,426m
2
Land area
23.1ha
Site coverage
40%
Value
$148.6m
Value (psmland
area)
$642.4/m
2
WALE
2.8 years
Average age
37.9 years
% complete
100%
Cap rate
6.2%
1
As at 31 March 2018
21
Concourse Industry Park
22
Acquisition:
Roma Road
+Site located in centre of Auckland
Urban area and surrounded by low-
medium intensity residential
+Area earmarked for intensification
+Access and direct frontage to SH20
+Expected to benefit from light rail
network running between Auckland
CBD and the airport in the
medium/long term
Waterview
tunnel
SH20
CBD
Proposed
light rail
Roma
Road
23
Acquisition:
Roma Road
Metrics
NLA36,977m
2
Land area13.1 ha
Site coverage27%
Value$93m
Value (land)$710/m
2
WALE 2.5 years
Agec. 40 years
24
Development
programme
Capital
deployment
+$672 million of development starts over the last five years, providing average yield on additional spend of
9.4% and development gains of $81million
1
+$165 million of new developments announced in FY18, with a further $54 million YTD
+80% of remaining portfolio has been developed by Goodman, providing for high quality, well-designed
long-term investments
25
98.2
108.8
148.7
97.0
164.8
54.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19 Q1
$ m
OtherHighbrook
100%
100%
72%
100%
65%
52%
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
HighbrookSavillM20WestneyThe GateOther
Developed by GoodmanOther
$ m
Development commencements
2
(total project cost including land)
Assets developed by Goodman
2
(total value of stabilised assets by estate)
1
Revaluation gains recorded on developments completed during the period
2
As as 31 March 2018, including FY19 Q1 announcements
Development
programme
2626
Gateway
Warehouses
HighbrookBusiness Park
COMPLETION
November 2018
NLA
22,195m
2
Parade
Units
HighbrookBusiness Park
COMPLETION
November 2018
NLA
5,972m
2
COMPLETION
November 2018
NLA
8,494m
2
SavillDrive
Warehouse
SavillLink
+66,000 sqm of space currently under
construction within GMT portfolio
+Includes 27,000 sqm of space which is
yet to have terms agreed (equivalent to
circa 2.5% of GMT portfolio)
Construction
costs
+Costs escalating but offset by yield compression and rising rents
+Quality of base build specification also rising
+Developments typically recording gains of 15-20% when valued on completion
27
$250
$400
$550
$700
$850
$1,000
201320142015201620172018
Warehouse construction cost
$/m
2
Development
pipeline
+Remaining land supply 22 ha
1
+Supports a further 116,000 sqm of industrial and commercial development
+Yield on additional spend expected to range between 8-9%
+Estimated additional spend of approximately $290 million
+Highbrook represents 82% of remaining land supply
+New land opportunities tightly held and difficult to secure
1
As at 31 March 2018, including FY19 Q1 announcements
28
Gateway Warehouses development (artists impression), HighbrookBusiness Park
Financial
29
Contracted sales
WPH disposal
Committed
developments
Roma Road
Development
pipeline
25.0%
14.1%
19.9%
22.9%
<35%
$160m
$93m
$290m
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Balance
Sheet
Reported
LVR
Pro Forma
LVR
Committed
LVR March
2018
Post
acquisitions
Approximate
built out LVR
GMT
capacity
+GMT to have strong liquidity post settlement of WPH disposal
+Increased ability to further invest in Auckland industrial through development pipeline and
acquisitions
+Build out of full development pipeline including projects underway (circa $450 million
1
) would result
in gearing of less than 35%
Pro-forma gearing bridge
2
1
Atcurrent construction costs
2
As at 31 March 2018, including Roma Rd acquisition
30
1
NTA + distribution
Total
returns
+NTA growing strongly with CAGR of 8.9% over last five years
+Improving quality and focus on industrial reflected in returns with five year total return of 13.7%
Totalreturns
2
2
Total return is a combination of NTA growth + distribution paid
11.6%
14.4%
17.2%
13.8%
11.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18
Income returnCapital return
5 year total
return: 13.7%
5 year income
return: 5.9%
100.4
108.4
120.4
130.4
138.9
141.4
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18Post WPH
sale
1
Postcontracted sales, asat 31 March 2018
1
NTA per unit
cents
31
Summary
32
Focus
33
Own
+Modern high quality assets with strong customer covenants in the best
locations
+Industrial property is the preferred sector, unique characteristics make it a
superior long-term investment
+Auckland is the favoured location, demographic and consumer trends
support this decision
Develop
+Development programme has created portfolio of unrivalled quality
+Essential business activity to service customers, while continually
improving the portfolio
+New land opportunities difficult to secure, value add opportunities
increasingly important
Manage
+Assets and customer relationships to maximise rental cashflows and
long-term value
+Balance sheet capacity funding development programme
+Treasury initiatives to manage interest costs improving diversity and tenor
+Transition to cash earnings based distribution policy, headwinds while
completing asset disposals
Thank you
34
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.