Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update16 October 2018MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 30 September 2018

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

HYDRO GENERATION 1,446GWh

AT 84TH PERCENTILE;

255GWh ABOVE AVERAGE

MARKET CHURN AT 21.1%

MERCURY BRAND CHURN AT 16.8%

NO CHANGE TO HYDRO

GENERATION FORECAST

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

STRONG

HYDR0

GENERATION

COMPETITIVE

RETAIL

MARKET

4,200 GWh

>> COMMENTARY

GENERATION ABOVE-AVERAGE; HYDRO GWAP IMPROVES WITH INCREASED HYDRO FLEXIBILITY

Mercury's strong starting storage position enabled hydro generation of 1,446GWh during the quarter. This fell from record quarterly

generation in the prior comparable period but remained at the 84

th

percentile

1

, contributing to total generation of 2,179GWh including

stable geothermal output.

Mercury's LWAP/GWAP ratio moved favourably to 1.07 versus 1.09 in the same quarter last year as the timing of inflows enabled

Mercury to utilise its hydro asset flexibility, shown through the increase in the relative value of our hydro generation with hydro

GWAP/TWAP being 1.09 versus 1.07.

Average wholesale prices for the quarter were $87/MWh at Otahuhu and $77/MWh at Benmore, decreasing by $6/MWh and

$19/MWh respectively from Q1-FY2018 (which was affected by dry hydrological conditions). Prices increased over the quarter as

national hydro storage declined from 103% to 85% of average. Wholesale market conditions were further impacted by an ongoing

Pohokura gas outage commencing in September which is expected to last till late November.

Short-term futures prices responded strongly to the changes in wholesale market conditions with the FY2019 Otahuhu price lifting

more than $14/MWh from $73.91/MWh at the start of the quarter to $88.17/MWh by the end of the quarter (with a further increase

to $141.38/MWh as at 15 October 2018). Longer-term futures prices remained largely unchanged despite the tightening supply and

demand dynamic and the increased volatility observed in wholesale prices.

SUSTAINED HIGH COMPETITION INCREASES CHURN

Strong competition, especially in the North Island, resulted in Mercury's customer numbers across all brands decreasing by 2,000 to

386,000 at the end of the quarter. As at 30 September 2018, Mercury group churn increased to 20.0%

2

which remains below

market churn at 21.1%

2

; churn for the Mercury brand also increased to 16.8%

2

(from 14.7%

2

as at 30 September 2017). Mercury churn

levels for the quarter were impacted by the transfer of customers from Tiny Mighty Power to the main Mercury brand (which will also

impact churn in the following quarter).

Mass Market electricity sales VWAP was higher at $127.04/MWh. IFRS changes relating to the treatment of customer credit

acquisition costs have reduced this yield by $1.41/MWh compared to the previous standard with the Commercial & Industrial segment

VWAP being unaffected.

URBAN AND RURAL SECTORS LEAD UNDERLYING DEMAND GROWTH

National demand continues to grow despite warmer than average temperatures, increasing by 1.4% on a temperature-adjusted basis

(+1.1% on an unadjusted basis) versus the prior comparable period. This increase was primarily driven by the urban (+0.5%) and rural

(+0.5%) sectors with the dairy sector (+0.2%) also contributing.

1

For quarters ended 30 September since 1999

2

12-monthly rolling average

VWAP
1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)

2

955975

3

297302

291316

1,3161,349

225244

1,5411,593

386393

343349

4344

4846

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

4

664697

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

1,4461,522

5

678689

6

5547

2,1792,258

1.071.09

7

93102

415406

1

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

5

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

6

Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share

7

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

METRIX AMI METERS ('000)

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 September 2018 and 176 GWh

for the 3 months ended 30 September 2017. Includes End User CfD volumes.

85.9091.07

LWAP/GWAP

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees. Mass Market VWAP is higher than C&I

due to the additional cost to serve, losses, location and usage profile associated with the Mass Market segment

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

CARBON EMISSIONS

('000 TONNES CO2)

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000)

89.0793.40

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

North Island Customers

Net Sell CfD

Dual Fuel Customers

Total NZEM Purchases99.0191.53

FPVV purchases from market

Spot customer purchases

South Island Customers

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

30 September 2018

Three months ended

30 September 2017

End User CfD

FPVV

($/MWh)($/MWh)

ELECTRICITY SALES

Mass Market123.53127.04

Commercial & Industrial82.7684.14

Includes carbon emissions from Mercury gas sales, wholly owned geothermals and proportionate emissions from the Mokai and Nga Awa

Purua stations

80.5192.57

85.8379.59

Geothermal (equity accounted)

Total

Hydro

Geothermal (consolidated)

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

Statistics have been modified to separately disclose Mass Market and C&I sales segments with restatement of prior years on page 7

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

20%

32%

22%

16%

4%

6%

Financial Year Q1 2019

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

21%

25%

21%

19%

6%

8%

Financial Year Q1 2018

14%

86%

Financial Year Q1 2019

MERCURY

OTHER

15%

85%

Financial Year Q1 2018

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2018 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2019 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2018FY2019

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$74.70

$76.60

$74.43

$73.68

$78.79

$78.83

$73.91

$77.23

$75.54

$88.17

$79.89

$77.26

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017AS AT 31 MARCH 2018AS AT 30 JUNE 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018

$71.26

$71.38

$68.70

$67.53

$71.00

$70.94

$66.45

$70.04

$69.94

$82.93

$73.90

$73.33

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2017AS AT 31 MARCH 2018AS AT 30 JUNE 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY (⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEARQ1Q2Q3Q4

201912.1---

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

201611.416.020.615.3

201511.915.919.914.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.219.314.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

9,132

9,386

9,573

9,430

9,451

9,554

1,238

1,250

1,268

1,267

1,251

1,263

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

VWAP
Volume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Vo

lume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Volume

VWAP

Volume

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

955

855

689

759

975

851

711

773

973

297

289

310

299

302

325

325

316

333

291

288

296

325

316

331

324

346

326

1,316

1,207

1,055

1,118

1,349

1,241

1,094

1,150

1,380

225

209

211

227

244

226

218

231

224

1,541

1,416

1,266

1,345

1,593

1,467

1,312

1,381

1,604

386

388

391

393

393

392

390

387

381

343

345

348

350

349

349

348

346

341

43

43

43

43

44

43

42

41

40

48

48

48

47

46

45

44

43

42

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

664

516

401

496

697

639

423

510

387

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

1,446

1,218

1,035

1,172

1,522

1,402

954

1,112

1,256

678

656

591

627

689

668

628

657

634

55

52

45

49

47

55

54

58

55

2,179

1,926

1,671

1,848

2,258

2,125

1,636

1,827

1,945

1.07

1.05

1.08

1.06

1.09

1.13

1.02

1.03

1.04

93

85

68

86

102

93

80

90

96

415

413

410

408

406

403

401

399

398

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE

07

Mass Market

127.04

127.61

125.44

Commercial & Industrial

82.76

84.67

80.27

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

30 September 2018

Three months ended

30 June 2018

Three months ended

31 March 2018

ELECTRICITY SALES

($/MWh)

($/MWh)

($/MWh)

FPVV purchases from marketSpot customer purchases FPVV End User CfDNorth Island CustomersSouth Island CustomersTotal NZEM Purchases

91.53

83.48

87.92

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS('000)

Net Sell CfD

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

Dual Fuel Customers

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE

85.90

79.84

82.87

Hydro

89.07

84.42

87.34

Geothermal (consolidated)

79.59

71.76

75.39

120.35

72.79

94.93

METRIX AMI METERS ('000)LWAP/GWAPCARBON EMISSIONS('000 TONNES CO2)

Geothermal (equity accounted)

80.51

74.40

78.21

Total

Three months ended

30 September 2017

($/MWh)

123.53

84.14

VWAP

($/MWh)

91.34

87.09

89.3089.84

Three months ended

31 December 2017

($/MWh)

Three months ended

30 June 2017

($/MWh)

124.49

86.25

VWAP

($/MWh)

93.40

85.83

92.57

91.07

99.01

68.02

71.00

Three months ended

31 March 2017

($/MWh)

121.34

78.94

VWAP

($/MWh)

72.50

53.70

49.41

50.30

52.82

($/MWh)

117.18

74.54

VWAP

($/MWh)

48.38

68.98

80.23

44.97

46.87

VWAP

($/MWh)

55.21

49.28

42.94

Three months ended

31 December 2016

VWAP

($/MWh)

60.32

54.69

54.79

58.32

Three months ended

30 September 2016

($/MWh)

122.04

87.82

60.38

>> TWO YEAR HISTORY OF

OPERATING STATISTICS

Statistics are presented in the

same form as those on page 2

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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