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KFL – September 2018 Quarterly Update Newsletter

Quarterly Update18 October 2018KFLFinancials

1
Notable Returns in the Quarter

»»The»September»quarter»was»another»positive»one»for»the»

Kingfish»portfolio»(seventh»in»a»row),»with»almost»all»of»the»

return»coming»in»August.

»»The»portfolio»delivered»+4.4%»gross»performance»return»

for»the»quarter»as»13»of»17»positions»delivered»positive»

contribution,»with»the»strongest»performers»being»Ryman,»

Mainfreight»and»Delegat.

»»We»initiated»a»small»position»in»Pushpay»during»the»quarter.

Market price performance during earnings season

more spectacular than the earnings themselves

On the whole, our portfolio scorecard for the results season was

solid. More of the portfolio companies beat consensus earnings

expectations than missed (5 beats, 2 inline and 4 misses so 64% of

results were inline or beats). This compares favourably to the market

that had 16 misses, 14 beats and 7 inline, so 56% of results were

inline or beats.

Despite that solid yet not spectacular earnings season from the

broad market, the stock market price performance was the best

during an earnings reporting season in 18 years.

The broad stock market price performance during the key August

reporting month was more heavily influenced by key twin drivers -

interest rates and currency.

In the key August month, US 10 year bonds rallied to see yields

close near 5 month lows. This more than translated to NZ bonds

which saw a sharp rally with yields breaking to fresh two year lows.

This saw the ratio of NZ 10 year bond yields vs US 10 year bond

yields breaking new multi decade lows – in short, interest rates fell

globally but they fell much more sharply in New Zealand.

On top of this, the NZD continued its fairly rapid depreciation,

falling two cents (0.68 to 0.66) during the month.

The combination of these two factors makes NZ a more

attractive destination to invest for offshore investors and we

saw heavy offshore inflows into the equity market during the

August month.

Mainfreight (+10%) also held its ASM during the quarter, with

generally positive outlook comments including “a growing

confidence due to improved trading results” and that “April to June

has seen strong revenue growth; profit has improved accordingly”.

Other comments indicate that this is likely to translate to a strong

first half result (on a weak prior period) with the company “quietly

positive” that results will sustain through FY19. This is relatively

positive language from a company that tends to set a high bar and

DELEGAT

GROUP

+20

%

RYMAN

HEALTHCARE

+17

%

MAINFREIGHT

+10

%

MERIDIAN

ENERGY

+9

%

AUCKLAND

AIRPORT

+8

%

under-promise. All geographies appear to be performing well,

with particular emphasis that Mainfreight “expects to see Asia

and the Americas improve markedly” after having been below

expectations recently. The ASM and associated annual report was

another reminder of the strong and extremely hard to replicate

culture MOAT Mainfreight has built around its business.

Pushpay added to the portfolio

We added Pushpay to the portfolio during the quarter.

Pushpay is a leading mobile payments and engagement provider

to the US faith sector. In the space of five years it has gone from

nowhere to become the fastest growing and preferred provider. It

delivers best in class product and service, and its domain expertise

combined with superior resources (both sales & research and

development) gives us comfort that Pushpay will retain this edge

over competitors.

We attended the investor day in the US during the September

month and were impressed by the depth of strength below senior

management levels and have been especially impressed by the

exceptionally strong customer feedback we have received from

our independent checks with various large churches in the US.

Pushpay is on track to reach breakeven on a monthly cash flow

basis prior to the end of calendar 2018, with FY2019 on the cusp

of EBITDA breakeven. It is not unreasonable to expect revenue

growth over the next three to five years to continue to compound

at ~30%+ p.a.

Pushpay remains a relatively early stage investment and we have

initiated a minimum position.

Quarter Update Newsletter

30 June 2018 – 30 September 2018

NAV

$

1.54

SHARE PRICE

$

1.39

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.07

Sam»Dickie»

Senior Portfolio Manager

11 October 2018

as»at»30»September»2018

DISCOUNT

1

9.0

%

¹ Share price discount/(premium) to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis)

2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from

an authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

Performance

as at 30 September 2018

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

Five Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+3.4%+14.9%+11.7%

Adjusted NAV Return+3.7%+17.5%+13.0%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +4.4%+20.3%+15.8%

S&P/NZX50G Index+4.6%+18.7%+14.6%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance

return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation

decisions after fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection, before fees

and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money,

exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder

return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP measures are

described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at

http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED»COMPANIES

%»Holding

Abano Healthcare1.7%

Auckland Int Airport5.3%

Delegat Group3.8%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare11.8%

Fletcher Building3.1%

Freightways9.2%

Infratil7.2%

Mainfreight11.4%

Meridian Energy3.0%

Michael Hill International3.4%

Port of Tauranga3.3%

Pushpay Holdings2.0%

Restaurant Brands NZ4.1%

Ryman Healthcare7.3%

Summerset6.3%

The A2 Milk Company10.0%

Vista Group International4.0%

Equity»Total96.9%

New Zealand dollar cash3.1%

TOTAL100.0%

Portfolio Holdings Summary

as at 30 September 2018

Company News

Dividend Paid 28 September 2018

A dividend of 3.00 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders

on 28 September 2018 under the quarterly distribution policy.

Interest in Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high

with 45% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to

DRP participants are at a 3% discount to market price. If you would

like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar,

Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.