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Fonterra revises forecast Farmgate Milk Price and Q1 update

Quarterly Update6 December 2018FSFConsumer Staples

6 December 2018
FONTERRA REVISES FORECAST FARMGATE MILK PRICE AND PROVIDES Q1 UPDATE

• Forecast Farmgate Milk Price range: $6.00 - $6.30 per kgMS

• Forecast earnings per share range: 25-35 cents

• Forecast New Zealand milk collections: 1,550 million kgMS, up 3%

• Sales volumes: 3.6 billion LME, down 6%

• Revenue: $3.8 billion, down 4%

• Gross margin: $646 million, down $14 million

• Gross margin percentage: 17%, up from 16.6%

• Operating expenses: $656 million, up 3%

• Capital expenditure: $188 million, up $46 million


Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today revised its 2018/19 forecast Farmgate Milk Price range

from $6.25-$6.50 per kgMS to $6.00-$6.30 per kgMS and shared an update on its first quarter

business performance.

Fonterra Chairman John Monaghan says the revision in the forecast Farmgate Milk Price range is

due to the global milk supply remaining stronger relative to demand, which has driven a downward

trend on the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) index since May.

“Since our October milk price update, production from Europe has flattened off the back of dry

weather and rising feed costs. US milk volumes are still forecast to be up one per cent for the year,”

says Mr Monaghan.

“Here in New Zealand, we are maintaining our forecast collections at 1,550 million kgMS. NIWA is

saying its likely we will see an abnormal El Nino weather pattern over summer and this could

impact our farmers’ milk production.

“Demand from China and Asia remains strong. However, we are seeing geopolitical disruption

impacting demand from countries that traditionally buy a lot of fat products from us.

“Today’s forecast range assumes dairy prices will firm across the balance of the season. This is

consistent with the views of other market commentators.

“There are still a number of unknowns in the global demand and supply picture and we recommend

farmers budget with ongoing caution. Fonterra’s Advance Rate has been set off a milk price of

$6.15 per kgMS.”

First quarter business update

Fonterra’s first quarter gross margin of $646 million is down $14 million compared to the same

period last year and up slightly on a percentage basis from 16.6 per cent to 17 per cent. Revenue of

$3.8 billion, is down four per cent and sales volumes were down six per cent to 3.6 billion liquid milk

equivalent (LME).

Fonterra Co-operative Group
Confidential to Fonterra Co-operative Group Page 2


The Co-op’s Ingredients business, despite lower sales volumes, performed solidly during Q1 with a

gross margin of $273 million, up $28 million on last year. The Consumer business also performed

well with a gross margin of $310 million, up $10 million on last year, and volumes were up five per

cent.

Chief Executive Miles Hurrell says the Co-op generally makes a smaller proportion of its total

annual sales in the first quarter due to the seasonal nature of our milk supply.

“This means the results from Q1 do not give much insight into the Co-op’s expected earnings

performance for the full year. It does, however, put the spotlight on where we have challenges that

we need to address,” says Mr Hurrell.

“In particular, we are seeing challenges in our Australian Ingredients, Greater China Foodservice

and Asia Foodservice businesses. I want to be clear with our farmers and unit holders about how

we are tackling these issues.

“In our Australian Ingredients business, we have lower milk collections as a result of drought

conditions and increased competition for milk supply. We are responding by focusing on the

performance levers in our control – the main one being reducing our operating expenses to reflect

lower milk collections.

“The lower gross margins and sales volumes in Greater China Foodservice and Asia Foodservice

in Q1 are mainly due to the high sales volumes of butter and cream cheese at the end of Q4 2018,

a slightly slower start to sales of UHT culinary cream and more sales of UHT milk which has a lower

margin relative to our other products. We are expecting our sales to lift as we are seeing strong

sales from our distributors off the back of demand in China for New Zealand made products,

particularly our UHT culinary creams. We are also prioritising value and moving away from lower

margin contracts.”

Portfolio review

Commenting on the Board led portfolio review Mr Monaghan says there is a lot of action and

progress but it will take time to flow through into financial results.

“We have reached an agreement in principle with Beingmate that will see us return to full ownership

of the Darnum plant by 31 December 2018 and enter into a multi-year agreement for Beingmate to

purchase ingredients from us.

“We are also looking at our ongoing ownership of Tip Top and have appointed FNZC as our

external advisor to work with us as we consider a range of options. We want to see Tip Top remain

a New Zealand based business and this is being factored into our options.

“While performing well, Tip Top is our only ice cream business and has reached maturity as an

investment for us. To take it to its next phase successfully will require a level of investment beyond

what we are willing to make.

“We are still some months off from completing the full portfolio review of assets, investments and

partnerships. We are moving quickly to meet our commitment to reducing our debt levels by $800

million by the end of the financial year. This requires both improved performance from last year and

the divestment of assets.”

Lifting performance

In respect to the three-point plan to lift the Co-op’s performance, Mr Hurrell says progress is being

made on fixing the businesses that are not performing.

“Fonterra Brands New Zealand is one of the businesses that is starting to turn around. It’s early

days but overall our Consumer and Foodservice business in Oceania delivered higher sales

Fonterra Co-operative Group
Confidential to Fonterra Co-operative Group Page 3


volumes and margins for Q1 compared the same period last year. A significant contributor of this is

the improved operational performance in New Zealand.

“We have set our capital expenditure (CAPEX) limit at $650 million. While we are ahead on the

same time last year, this was planned as we completed the final stages of projects from last year.

Once these assets are delivered, our focus will turn to ensuring they hit their Return on Capital

targets.

“We remain committed to returning our operating expenses (OPEX) to FY17 levels – however, they

were up three per cent for the first quarter compared to the same period last year. The majority of

these costs were committed to before we agreed our new OPEX target. They relate to higher

advertising and promotion and storage costs in our Consumer and Foodservice business, additional

costs since taking the management of Anmum back from Beingmate and higher storage and

distribution costs for Ingredients as we collected and moved more milk than we budgeted for.”

Outlook for 2019

Mr Hurrell says the Co-op is maintaining its forecast earnings per share range of 25-35 cents.

“Q1 gross margin percentage was up on last year and we have identified the challenges that need

addressing. Our earnings forecast for the remainder of the year is based on a milk price within the

$6.00-$6.30 per kgMS range and, on this basis, we are confident in our earnings guidance.”

ENDS


For further information contact:


Fonterra Communications

24-hour media line

Phone: +64 21 507 072


About Fonterra

We’re a global dairy nutrition company owned by 10,000 farmers and their families. We’ve built our expertise

on the legacy of the thousands of farmers who’ve made New Zealand a world leader in dairy. With a can-do

attitude and a collaborative spirit, we’re a world leading dairy exporter. Our 22,000 people share the

goodness of dairy nutrition with the world through our innovative consumer, foodservice and ingredient

solutions brands, and our farming and processing operations across four continents.

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Business
Update

DECEMBER 2018

2
Disclaimer

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. There can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which

the forward-looking statements and projections relate. These forward-looking statements and projections involve known and unknown risks,

uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results

expressed or implied by such statements and projections. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors arenot all within the

control of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited (Fonterra) and its subsidiaries (the Fonterra Group) and cannot be predicted by the Fonterra

Group.

While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this presentation none of Fonterra or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and

associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or

guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of any information in this presentation or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward-looking statement or

projection or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement or projection. The forward-looking statements and projections in

this report reflect views held only at the date of this presentation.

Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Except as required by applicable law or any applicable Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update any

information in this presentation.

This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement, recommendation or offer to buy or sell any securitiesin Fonterra or the

Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund.

3
Business update summary

•Forecast Farmgate milk price range is $6.00 -$6.30 per kgMSand is based on firming global dairy prices over the

balance ofthe season

•Maintaining earnings guidance

–Q1 margins in-line with last year

–Solid New Zealand Ingredients performance and growth in Consumer

–Challenges in Australia Ingredients, Asia Foodservice and China Foodservice

•Making good progress on plan to lift performance

•Committed to financial discipline (opex, capex and debt reduction targets)

•Released our second Sustainability Report in November

4
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price of $6.00 -$6.30

Forecast based on global dairy prices firming over the balance of the season

•Forecast Farmgate Milk Price has declined this season reflecting lower global dairy prices. Since June

–GDT index has declined 20%

–Butter prices have declined 33%

–AMF is down 24%

–WMP is down 17%

•Forecast Farmgate Milk Price range of $6.00 -$6.30 per kgMSassumes some firming in global dairy prices over the balance

of theseason

─This is consistent with the direction of the dairy future prices according to NZX Futures and other market commentators

•The Farmgate Milk Price profile throughout the year is a key determinant of earnings

–This global dairy price outlook supports our 25 –35 cents earnings guidance for FY19

5
Note: All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18. Gross margin from Q1 FY18 shown with direction of change denoted by arrow. 1) Includes inter-segment sales.

FY19 Q1 performance summary

$28m

6%

Volume LME

3.6billion

4%

Revenue

$3.8billion

$14m

Gross Margin

$646m

$46 million

Capex

$188million

3%

Opex

$656million

from 16.6%

17.0%

from 8.0%

4%

Ingredients

Volume LME

1

3.5b

Gross Margin

1

$273m

9.1%

4%

Consumer &

Foodservice

Volume LME

1

1.2b

Gross Margin

1

$390m

22.9%

20%

China

Farms

Volume LME

1

56m

Gross Margin

1

-$2m

-4.2%

$17m

from 24.0%

$7m

from 7.3%

6
Outlook for 2019

•Forecast Farmgate Milk Price has been lowered to $6.00

-$6.30 from $6.25 -$6.50 per kgMS, based on:

–Stronger global milk supply

–Lower global dairy prices to date but forecast to firm

over the balance of the season

–Stable global demand

•Earnings per share range of 25-35 cents maintained

•Key drivers of earnings include:

–New Zealand Ingredients timing of sales

–Relative returns between Ingredient products (which

are currently positive but can be volatile)

–Milk price for the balance of the year

$6.00

-

$6.30

per kgMS

Forecast Farmgate

Milk Price

25-35

cents

per share

Forecast Earnings

7
Plan to lift performance

Take stock, get back to basics, ensure more accurate forecasting

CommitmentsQ1 FY19 Update

•Reduce debt by $800 million by year-end•Processes underway for three assets:

–Beingmate

•Anmumdistribution returned toFonterra

•Full ownership of Darnumplant to return to

Fonterra, agreed in principle

–Tip Top: appointed adviser to review range ofoptions

–Third asset: progressing

•Bring gearing back within 40-45% range by year-end•On track for the full-year

•Reduce capex to $650 million inFY19•On track for the full-year

•Reduce opexback to FY17 levels over the next

twoyears

•Comprehensive review underway

APPENDIX

9
Milk collections forecast maintained for the season

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay

Volume (m litres/day)

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

•New Zealand milk collections forecast maintained at

1,550million kgMS, up 3% compared to last season

•A strong start to the season in New Zealand due to

favourable weather conditions

•NIWA forecasting an abnormal El Niño weather pattern

over summer

Strong start to the season but risk of a hot, dry summer

New Zealand Milk Collection

SeasonTotal Milk Solids (kgMS)Peak Day Milk

2016/171,526m (down 3%)80m litres

2017/181,505m (down 1%)82m litres

2018/19F1,550m (up 3%)85m litres

10
China

+17%

12 months

Higher supply expected to moderate

1.Global Supply is represented by global milk production data

2.Global Demand is represented by global dairy import data

Note: All 12-month figures are rolling 12 months compared to previous comparable period: Australia (Sep), EU (Sep), United States (Oct), China (Mar), Asia (July), Middle East & Africa (July), Latin America (July).

Source: Government milk production statistics; GTIS trade data; Fonterra analysis.

Global Dairy Market

Rest of

Asia

+4%

12 months

Middle

East/Africa

-1%

12 months

Latin

America

-2%

12 months

Europe

+2%

12 months

+0.3%

July to

September

United

States

+1%

12 months

New Zealand

+2%

12 months

+6%

August to October

Australia

+2%

12 months

-4%

July to

September

Global

Supply

1

Global

Demand

2

Russia

EU’s largest

dairy export

market

Trade

embargo

remains

11
1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms

Note: Volume is in million LME. Gross margin is in NZD millions unless otherwise stated. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Improved margins even with challenges in Australia

Performance

•Q1 volumes are down 4% on last year due to:

–A slower start but has now picked up

–Lower government tender volumes

•Q1 margins are up on last year:

–Lower input costs

–Improved mix

–Positive stream returns

•Australia is a challenging market due to lower

collections because of drought and increased

competition for milk

Ingredients

FY18FY19

Volume¹

Gross

Margin

-4%

Growth

3,6083,469

FY18FY19

$273

9.1%

$245

8.0%

$28

12
Volumes and margins softening due to Foodservice

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

Note: Volume is in million LME. Gross margin is in NZD millions unless otherwise stated. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Consumer and Foodservice

FY18FY19

Volume¹

Gross

Margin

Performance

•Q1 volumes are down 4% on last year:

–Consumer volumes are up 5%

–Foodservice volumes are down 15%

•Q1 margins are down on last year with Consumer

margins flat and Foodservice down

•Foodservice Asia and Greater China

belowexpectations

•Oceania delivered higher margins across both

consumer and foodservice portfolios:

–Improved operational performance in

NewZealand

–Price increases in Australia

1,2311,184

-4%

Growth

$407$390

24.0%

22.9%

$17

13
Greater

China

Asia and Greater China Foodservice offset stronger Consumer performance

364349

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

Note: Volume is in million LME. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Consumer and Foodservice by region

273222

FY18FY19

181191

FY18FY19

412422

FY18FY19

AsiaOceania

Latin

America

Volume¹

Gross

Margin

22.6%

from

23.2%

Growth

-4%

-19%

+2%

+5%

$103m

$4m

23.6%

from

28.6%

$75m

$25m

19.1%

$105m

$12m

28.4%

from

29.3%

$107m

$7m

from

17.7%

14
Higher growth and stable margins underpin a strong Q1

712744

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

Note: Volume is in million LME. Gross margin is in NZD millions unless otherwise stated. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18

Consumer

FY18FY19

Volume¹

Gross

Margin

Performance

•Q1 volumes are up 5% on last year with growth in

allregions

•Q1 Consumer margins are largely flat on last year,

with higher margins in Asia and Oceania offset by

softer margins in Greater China

•Higher Q1 margins in Asia and Oceania are due to:

–Benefits from improved product mix as we

launched new products in Asia

–Better operational performance in New Zealand

–Strong performance in Australia

•Lower Q1 margins in Greater China are due to:

–Delay in product launch

–Increase in cross-border restrictions in Hong Kong

$300

$310

+5%

Growth

26.4%

26.1%

$10

15
Greater

China

Growth registered in every region, softer margins in Greater China

211222

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

2.FY18 LME volume has been adjusted for the inclusion of eliminating entries to improve comparability.

Note: Volume is in million LME. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Consumer by region

39

41

FY18FY19

157163

FY18FY19

306318

FY18FY19

Asia²Oceania

Latin

America

Volume¹

Growth

+5%

+6%

+4%

+4%

Gross

Margin

28.5%

from

27.6%

$91m

$14m

36.3%

from

41.4%

$38m

$1m

19.4%

from

18.7%

$82m

$7m

29.0%

from

30.0%

$99m

$9m

16
Asia and Greater China cause lower volumes and profits

519440

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

Note: Volume is in million LME. Gross margin is in NZD millions unless otherwise stated. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Foodservice

FY18FY19

Volume¹

Gross

MarginPerformance

•Q1 volumes are down 15% on last year due to Asia

and Greater China performance

–Follows strong Q4 volumes

•Q1 Foodservice margins are down on last year, with

higher margins in Oceania and Latin America offset

by lower margins in Asia and Greater China

•Lower Q1 margins in Asia and Greater China are

dueto:

–Slower start to sales of butter, cream cheese and

UHT cream

–Narrowing of margins for butter and UHT cream

–Solid growth of UHT milk sales (lower margin

relative to other products)

–A reduction of volume sold through the

QSRchannel

$107$79

-15%

Growth

19.2%

15.4%

$28

17
Greater

China

Value over volume drive Asia and Greater China volumes down

154127

FY18FY19

1.Includes sales to other strategic platforms.

Note: Volume is in million LME. All changes are expressed relative to the first quarter of FY18.

Foodservice by region

235181

FY18FY19

24

28

FY18FY19

106104

FY18FY19

AsiaOceania

Latin

America

Volume¹

Growth

-18%-23%-2%+17%

Gross

Margin

8.8%

from

14.9%

$12m

$10m

17.4%

from

23.9%

$37m

$24m

17.8%

from

14.4%

$23m

$5m

22.2%

from

20.7%

$8m

$2m

18
Living within our means

Committed to strong financial discipline

FY17

levels

over next

two years

Opexreducing to

$650

million

Capex set at

•Higher opexin Q1 versus last year was largely due to

higher spend in Consumer and Foodservice. The increase

was due to:

–Higher pre-planned A&P

–Storage expenses

–Costs related to bringing Anmumback in-house

•In Ingredients, storage and distribution spend was up in Q1

versus last year

•Savings made in Group Functions

•Target to return to FY17 levels within two years

•We are on track to reduce capex from $861 million to

$650 million this year

•Higher capex in Q1 versus last year due to the timing of

completion of projects carried over from last year

•Capex is not evenly spread out through the year

19
1) Includes bulk liquid milk. 2) Q1FY19 revenue and sales volume includes Foodservice volumes to China, Latin America and Quick Service Restaurant channels but these are not included in FY18. This volume in Q1FY19 is 34,000 metric tonnes. Prior

years have not been restated.

New Zealand Ingredients product mix

3,6083,469$245

Q1 FY18Q2 FY18Q3 FY18Q4 FY18Q1 FY19

2

Change

Q1 FY18

to Q1 FY19

Production Volume (000 MT)

Reference583 683 481 103 6339%

Non-Reference237 246 208 70 227(4)%

SalesVolume(000 MT)

Reference287 614 455 439 247(14)%

Non-Reference

1

130 180 168 210 15922%

Revenue ($ per MT)

Reference4,928 4,715 4,636 5,214 5,2577%

Non-Reference

1

5,777 5,958 5,555 5,764 5,405(6)%

20
Acronyms and Definitions

Glossary

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat

BMP

Butter Milk Powder

Base Price

Prices used by Fonterra’s sales team as referenced

against GDT prices and other relevant benchmarks

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring Act 2001 (New Zealand)

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of dairy ingredients

Gearing Ratio

Economic net interest-bearing debt divided by

economic net interest-bearing debt plus equity

excluding cash-flow hedge reserves

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in New Zealand to

Fonterraby farmer shareholders

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping of skim milk, whole milk and

cream –pasteurised or UHT processed, concentrated

milk products andyoghurt

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk supplied to Fonterra

LME (Liquid Milk Equivalent)

A standard measure of the amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product based on the amount of fat

and protein in the product relative to the amount of fat

and protein in standardised raw milk

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except for Reference, produced by

the NZ Ingredients business

Price Achievement

Revenue achieved over the base price less incremental

supply chain costs above those set out in the Milk

Pricemodel

Reference Products

The dairy products used in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF

Regulated Return

The earnings component of Milk Price generated from

a WACC return on an assumed asset base

Season

New Zealand: A period of 12 months to 31 May in

eachyear

Australia: A period of 12 months to 30 June in

eachyear

SMP

Skim Milk Powder

Stream Returns

The gross margin differential between Non-Reference

Product streams and the WMP stream (based on

baseprices)

WACC

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

WMP

Whole Milk Powder

21
Glossary

Fonterra Strategic Platforms

Ingredients

The Ingredients platform comprises bulk and specialty dairy products such as milk powders, dairy fats, cheese and proteins manufactured in New Zealand, Australia,

Europe and Latin America, or sourced through our global network, and sold to food producers and distributors in over 140 countries. It also includes Fonterra

FarmSource™ retail stores.

Consumer

The Consumer platform comprises branded consumer products, such as powders, yoghurts, milk, butter, and cheese. Base productsare sourced from the ingredients

business and manufactured into higher-value consumer dairy products.

Foodservice

The Foodservice platform comprises a range of branded products and solutions for commercial kitchens, including bakery butter, culinary creams, and cheeses.

China Farms

The China Farms platform comprises the farming operations in China, which produce high-quality fresh milk for the Chinese market.

---

1
GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2018

KEY DATES

End February 2019

Deadline for Applications to

Supply Fonterra

Late March 2019

FY19 Interim Results

Announcement

May 2019

Q3 Business Update

Announcement

1 June 2019

Measurement Date for Share

Standard 2019/20 Season

• US production g

rowth remains steady, EU

growth easing and Australia declining.

Production in New Zealand up on last

y

ear.

•Exports from Australia and the US continue

to grow. European and New Zealand

exports down.

•Impor

ts into Asia and China show

continued growth. Middle East, Africa and

Latin America are flat.


In October Fonterra New Zealand milk

collection increased 5% to 220 million

kgMS and Fonterra Australia milk collection

decreased 14% to 16 million kgMS. There

is a growing risk of a hot dry summer in

both countries.

•2019 first quarter business update.

•Forecast Farmgate Milk Price range for the 2018/19 season

is $6.00-$6.30 per kgMS .

•Forecast earnings per share unchanged.

•Anchor™ Light Proof™ milk bottle will soon be appearing

on farms across New Zealand, but you won’t find them in

the fridge. Fonterra has teamed up with Kiwi-owned start

up, Future Post™, to turn milk bottles into fence posts for

kiwi farms.


The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published

on 31 January 2019.

COMING UP...

%%%
To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

%

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

US PRODUCTION

GROWTH REMAINS

STEADY, EU GROWTH

EASING AND AUSTRALIA

DECLINING. PRODUCTION

IN NEW  ZEALAND UP ON

LAST  YEAR

Total New Zealand milk

production increased 6%

in October compared to

the same month last year.

This has been driven by

favourable weather early in

the season.

Production for the 12 months

to October was 2% higher

than last year driven by

a record peak October

2018 production.

However there is a risk

of a hot, dry summer.

The expectation is for

non-traditional El Niño

conditions to develop over

the next three months.

Fonterra collections are

reported for October, see

page 5 for details.

Australian milk

production decreased 3%

in September compared to

the same period last year.

Drought across Eastern

Australia and input prices are

impacting Victoria, NSW and

Queensland. The downturn

in these states was partly

off-set by strong growth in

South Australia and stable

production in Tasmania.

Production for the 12 months

to September was up 2%

compared to the same

period the previous year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for October, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production saw

no growth in September

compared to the same

period last year.

The Netherlands experienced

the largest monthly decline.

The Netherlands' milk

production, on an annualised

basis, has remained flat since

mid-2016. In the month,

Ireland and Poland had

higher production.

Production for the 12 months

to September was up 2%

compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production was

up 1% in October compared

to the same period last year.

The US continues to see

relatively steady production

growth driven by yield

per cow.

Milk production for the

12 months to October

increased by 1% compared

to the same period last

year, continuing a steady

growth trend.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

Production change

for the 12 months to

September 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

October 2018

Production change

for the 12 months to

September 2018

Production change


for the 12 months to

October 2018

2212

%
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illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

%%

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM

AUSTRALIA  AND  THE

US  CONTINUE TO

GROW. EUROPEAN

AND NEW  ZEALAND

EXPORTS  DOWN

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by 10%,

or 18, 000 MT, in September

compared to the same period

last year. This was primarily

driven by declines in WMP,

SMP and cheese, down a

combined 15, 000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to September were down

1%, or 26,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This continues to be driven by

lower volumes across WMP,

AMF, cheese and SMP, down

a combined 78,000 MT. Fluid

and fresh dairy and infant

formula continued strong

growth, up 57,000  MT.

EU dairy exports decreased

by 7%, or 31,000 MT, in

August compared to the

same period last year. This

was primarily driven by

declines in fluid and fresh

dairy, WMP and SMP, down a

combined 35,000  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 1%,

or 26,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Continued upside in SMP

and infant formula remain

the primary drivers behind

European dairy export

growth, up a combined

95,000  MT.

US dairy exports increased

by 10%, or 16,000 MT, in

September compared to

the same period last year.

Growth in SMP and WMP of

a combined 16,000 MT, was

the primary driver behind

this increase.

Exports for the 12 months to

September were up 12%, or

264,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This increase was driven by

growth across SMP, lactose,

whey powder and WPC

and WPI, up a combined

202,000  MT.

Australian dairy exports

increased 3,700 MT in

August compared to the

same period last year. This

growth was due to upside

in most categories, offset by

declines in fluid products,

WMP, and other powders.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 4%, or

29,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid and fresh dairy, cheese,

and infant formula continued

to make up most of growth

in Australian exports, up a

combined 44,000  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

1241

1

Export change for the 12

months to September 2018

Export change for the 12

months to August 2018

Export change for the 12

months to September 2018

Export change for the 12

months to August 2018

%

%%%
%

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

IMPORTS INTO ASIA

AND CHINA SHOW

CONTINUED  GROWTH.

MIDDLE  EAST, AFRICA AND

LATIN AMERICA ARE FLAT

Latin American dairy

import volumes¹ increased

1%, or 1,000 MT, in July

compared to the same

period last year. This increase

was driven by fluid and

fresh dairy, SMP and AMF,

up a combined 7,000  MT.

This was partially offset by

reductions in WMP and whey

powder, down 5,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were down 2%, or

41,000 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. This decline was

primarily driven by WMP,

AMF, and cheese down a

combined 103,000 MT. An

increase in SMP and whey

powder of 49,000 MT offset

some of the decline.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 13%, or 47,000  MT,

in July compared to the same

period last year. Growth in

fluid and fresh dairy, WMP,

cheese and whey powder

of 38,000 MT drove the

increase. A decline in lactose

and SMP of 26,000 MT

offset gains.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 4%, or

160,000 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. Growth in WMP

and fluid and fresh dairy

of 134,000 MT were the

primary drivers.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 9% or 31,000 MT

in July compared to the same

period last year. Small growth

in SMP and MPC products

was offset by declines in

fluid and fresh dairy, cheese,

other powder and cultured

products of 33,000  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were down 1%, or

42,000 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. The reduction was

driven by fluid and fresh

dairy and cheese, down a

combined 125,000  MT.

China dairy import

volumes² increased 3%,

or 7,000 MT, in March

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

a combined 14,000 MT, or

22%, growth in fluid and

fresh dairy, butter and lactose

categories. Declines in WMP

of 6,000 MT partially offset

this growth.

Imports for the 12 months

to March were up 17%, or

394,000 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports across

all key categories up for the

period. Infant formula, WMP

and SMP imports added a

combined 220,000 MT of

additional volumes.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

Import change for the 12

months to March 2018

Import change for the 12

months to July 2018

Import change for the 12

months to July 2018

Import change for the 12

months to July 2018

417

1

2

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.2 China has suspended trade data, citing system technical issues. Based on exports to

China, we estimate June volumes grew 15% compared to the previous comparable period.

%%%%
To view a table that shows our

detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION 2018/19 SEASON

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 October

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 October

Increase for the season from

1 June to 31 October

Decrease for the season

from 1 July to 31 October

457

12

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collection

across Australia for the

four months to 31 October

reached 45 million kgMS,

down 12% on the same

period last season.

Australia collections in

October reached 16 million

kgMS, down 14% on the

same month last season.

Rising costs and availability

of key on-farm inputs

continue to trend

substantially above long-term

averages resulting in

increased cull cow rates. The

poor seasonal outlook and a

very competitive milk supply

market will more than likely

continue to impact F19 milk

supply. The likelihood of an

El Niño system developing is

at 70% (Australian Bureau of

Meteorology).

North Island milk

collection in October

reached 131 million kgMS,

6% higher than October

last season.

Most North Island regions

have benefited from

favourable weather and

good animal health, resulting

in milk volumes ahead of

last season. Northland

has experienced slower

pasture growth than

other regions due to less

favourable weather.

North Island milk collection

for the 2018/19 season to

date reached 339 million

kgMS, up 4%.

South Island milk

collection in October

reached 89 million kgMS,

5% higher than October

last season.

Positive weather and on-farm

conditions have continued,

allowing for good grass

growth across most regions.

South Island milk collection

for the 2018/19 season to

date reached 189 million

kgMS, up 7%.

Fonterra’s milk collection

across New Zealand for the

five months to 31 October

reached 527 million kgMS.

New Zealand collections in

October reached 220 million

kgMS, 5% up on the same

month last season.

Favourable climatic

conditions continued into

October, leading to very

good milk production for

the month across most of

the country.

NIWA is saying its likely

we will see an abnormal

El Niño weather pattern

over summer and this

could impact our farmers’

milk production.

%%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

NOV SEP FEB APR JUL SEP DEC JAN APR JUN NOV





,

, 

,

. 

.

. 

. 

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

strengthened through

the month of November

driven by strong local

economic indicators.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

4 December 2018:

The next trading event will be held on 18 December 2018. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.9

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

2,851

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

35.4

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 4,755/MT

3.9

AMF

USD 3,745/MT

3.0

BUTTER

USD 2,667/MT

2.6

WMP

USD 5,167/MT

2.0

RENNET CASEIN

USD 1,971/MT

0.0

SMP

USD 3,184/MT

2.1

CHEDDAR

35,408

MT

LATEST AUCTION

342,432

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

2019 THREE-MONTH
BUSINESS  UPDATE

REVENUE

VOLUME

GROSS MARGIN

17.0

%

3.6

B LME

3.8

B$

DOWN 6%

UP 3%

DOWN $14 MILLION

UP $46 MILLION

DOWN 4%

UP FROM 16.6%

OPEX

$

656

M

$

646

M

Fonterra’s gross margin

for the three months to

31 October was in line with

last year. Overall volume was

down 6% to 3.6 billion LME,

reflecting lower volumes

in both Ingredients and

Consumer and Foodservice.

In Ingredients, this was

predominantly due to the

timing of sales. In Consumer

and Foodservice, higher

consumer volumes (up 5%

compared to the same period

last year) were offset by

lower foodservice volumes

(down 15% compared to

the same period last year).

Group revenues were down

4% compared to the same

period last year, as lower

volumes were only partially

offset by higher pricing.

The Ingredients business

delivered a good first quarter

despite lower volumes. First

quarter volumes were down

4% compared to

the same

period last year because of a

slower start to the year, which

has now picked up, and lower

government tender volumes.

First quarter margins were up

to 9.1% (from 8.0% last year).

This was a result of lower

input costs, positive stream

returns and an improved mix.

Australia is a challenging

market for Ingredients due

to lower collections because

of drought and increased

competition for milk.

Consumer and Foodservice

volumes were down 4%

compared to the same

period ast year and the

gross margin declined to

22.9%, from 24% last year.

Consumer margins were

largely flat on the same

period last year (26.1%),

Foodservice margins

declined to 15.4%, from

19.2%. The decline in

volumes and profitability

in Foodservice Asia and

Foodservice Greater China

was due to a slower start in

sales of butter, cream cheese

and UHT cream. In contrast,

Oceania performed better

across both consumer and

foodservice portfolios.

Our China Farms operations

experienced a volume

decline of 20% compared

to the same period last year.

This was due to unfavourable

weather which adversely

affected yield. We also

incurred higher effluent costs

this quarter which pushed

down gross margin to (4.2)%,

from 7.3% last year.

Group operating expenditure

(opex) was up 3% this

quarter mainly due to higher

expenditure in Consumer

and Foodservice. In part

this was due to pre-planned

A&P, higher storage and

costs related to bringing

Anmum back in-house. We

also had higher storage

and distribution costs in

Ingredients from collecting

and moving more milk this

quarter. Our target is to

reduce opex to FY17 levels

over the next two years.

Higher capital expenditure

(capex) in Q1 versus last

year was due to timing

of completion of projects

carried over from last year.

We are on track to reduce

capex from $861 million to

$650 million this year.

The inclusion of off-GDT

sales has contributed 3 cents

per kgMS for the season to

date to 31 October 2018.

THE OUTLOOK

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

range for the 2018/19 season

is $6.00-$6.30 per kgMS.

Our forecast milk collection

for the season is unchanged

at 1,550 million kgMS.

There is still a lot of

variability in our full year

collections forecast. NIWA

is saying its likely we will see

an abnormal El Niño weather

pattern over summer and

this could impact our

farmers’ milk production.

Today's forecast range

assumes dairy prices will

firm across the remainder of

the season.

Our forecast earnings per

share is unchanged at

25-35 cents. The timing of

delivery of earnings over

the year will be driven by

the timing of New Zealand

Ingredient sales, the milk

price for the balance of the

year and relative returns

between Ingredients

products (which are currently

positive but can be volatile).

$

M

188

CAPEX

7

OUR PERFORMANCE

8
OUR CO-OP

From Plastic to Posts

Anchor™ Light Proof™

milk bottles will soon be

appearing on farms across

New Zealand, but you won’t

find them in the fridge.

Fonterra has teamed up

with Kiwi-owned start

up, Future Post™, to turn

milk bottles and other soft

plastics into fence posts for

kiwi farms.

Fonterra Brands

New Zealand’s (FBNZ)

Sustainability and

Environment Manager,

Larisa Thathiah, says the

posts are an innovative new

way for farmers to improve

their on-farm sustainability.

“This partnership

provides farmers with an

environmentally-friendly

fencing option, made from

the packaging of our farmers’

milk, which is pretty special,”

says Larisa.

“It’s not enough to just

recycle anymore, it’s about

creating less waste full stop,

or at least turning it into

something useful. That’s

why these fence posts are

so exciting – they’re made

from 100% recycled material,

and have a life expectancy of

more than 50 years.”

The Future Post™

partnership is the latest

waste reduction initiative

from Fonterra. Last year,

the Co-op partnered with

SKYCITY to turn Anchor™

Light Proof™ milk bottles

into shampoo, conditioner

and body lotion bottles

for guests.

Managing Director

of Future Post™,

Jerome Wenzlick, says it’s

great to have support from

Fonterra and he’s looking

forward to developing

other sustainable products

for farmers.

“What we’re doing is

re-purposing waste that

could have gone to landfill

and turning it in to a valuable

product for consumers,”

says Jerome.

“Our partnership with

Fonterra gives us access

to a steady supply of raw

material from the Co-op’s

own recycling initiatives.

It also gives us access to

a network of nationwide

Farm Source stores that can

sell the fence posts, and

access to 10,000 farmers

who are actively engaged

in environmental initiatives,

like fencing to keep cows out

of waterways and planting

along river banks.”

“Future Post™ is a start-up,

but we have plans for

some new products in

2019, including those for

non-farming sectors.”

Anchor™ Light Proof™ milk

bottles are collected from

the Fonterra Takanini site

and transported to the

Future Post™ Waiuku plant,

where they are mixed with

soft plastics and turned into

fence posts.

The fence posts will be

available in selected Fonterra

Farm Source stores across

the North Island in the New

Year, with plans to launch in

South Island stores mid-2019.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

and Future Post Managing

Director Jerome Wenzlick

revealed a first peak at the

posts at Fonterra’s Open

Gates event in Karaka.

FBNZ SUSTAINABILITY AND ENVIRONMENT MANAGER LARISA THATHIAH,

FONTERRA CEO MILES HURRELL AND FUTURE POST MANAGING DIRECTOR

JEROME WENZLICK

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES









,





EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to September; New Zealand and US to October.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to August; US and New Zealand to September.

NOTE: Data for China to June; Asia, Middle East and Africa, Latin America to July.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

DEC NOV

DEC

JAN

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB

OCT

JUN

,
,

,

,

,



,

,

,



, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

OCTOBER

2018

OCTOBER


2017

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

220.2208.85.4%527.2502.44.9%

North Island131.3124.35.7%338.7326.93.6%

South Island88.984.65.1%188.6175.57.4%

Fonterra Australia15.518. 1(14.4%)45.351.5(12.0%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(4 DECEMBER 2018)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

35,408342,432

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

24.9%15. 1%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

2,8512,937

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(8.4%)(9.4%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.9%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

Fonterra Strategic Platforms
Ingredients

The Ingredients platform

comprises bulk and specialty

dairy products such as milk

powders, dairy fats, cheese

and proteins manufactured

in New Zealand, Australia,

Europe and Latin America, or

sourced through our global

network, and sold to food

producers and distributors in

over 140 countries.

It also includes Fonterra

Farm Source™ retail stores.

Consumer

The Consumer platform

comprises branded

consumer products, such

as powders, yoghurt, milk,

butter, and cheese. Base

products are sourced from

the ingredients business

and manufactured into

higher-value consumer

dairy products.

Foodservice

The Foodservice platform

comprises a range of

branded products and

solutions for commercial

kitchens, including bakery

butter, culinary creams,

and cheeses.

China Farms

The China Farms platform

comprises the farming

operations in China, which

produce high quality fresh

milk for the Chinese market.

11

AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid and Fresh Dairy

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.


GLOSSARY

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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