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MLN – December 2018 monthly update

Operational Update17 December 2018MLNFinancials

1
Monthly Update

December 2018

MLN NAV

$

0.94

SHARE PRICE

$

0.89

DISCOUNT

1

4.4

%

as at 30 November 2018

A word from the Manager

Market Environment and Portfolio

Performance - November

While market volatility remained elevated in November,

markets stemmed October’s steep declines and ended

the month broadly flat. In the US, the S&P 500 Index

gained 1.4%, while European stocks (Stoxx 600 Index) and

emerging markets (MSCI EM Index) fell 1.8% and 0.2%

respectively. The strong New Zealand dollar (+5% against

the USD) weighed on portfolio returns during the month.

Portfolio gross performance was -0.6% in November,

marginally ahead of our global benchmark which fell

by 1.2%.

2018 Market Review

2018 has been a significantly more volatile year in markets

than 2017. While the US market has posted gains (partly

driven by President Trump’s tax cuts), share markets in most

other geographies are down year-to-date. While the year

started strongly and saw the S&P 500 gain 7% in January

alone, significant market declines in both February and

October have pared gains for the S&P 500 to 3% for the

year. European markets are down 8%, emerging markets

have fallen 14%, and the Japanese and UK markets are

down 7% and 9% respectively.

The drivers of this elevated volatility include rising inflation

and interest rates, the escalating US-China trade war, and a

slowdown in economic growth in parts of the world. These

factors have caused investors to question if economic

growth and corporate profit growth may have peaked

for the cycle. Despite heightened economic uncertainty,

corporate earnings growth has been solid – particularly in

the US market.

While growth sensitive sectors like Technology and

Consumer Discretionary performed strongly in the first

nine months of the year, recent market declines have

driven outperformance by defensive sectors like Utilities,

Healthcare and Consumer Staples. Year-to-date the Utilities

and Healthcare sectors have now outperformed the

broader US market.

For the calendar year to date, Marlin has delivered gross

performance of 7.0%, compared with our global benchmark

which is down 1.6% for the same 11 month period.

Portfolio Company Developments -

November

Our two Chinese technology companies, Tencent Holdings

and Alibaba, reported results during the month and were

the two top contributors to portfolio performance.

Alibaba’s results showed continued growth in the number

of users on its core Taobao and TMall ecommerce

platforms. Core commerce revenues grew 55% compared

to last year and earnings on its marketplaces increased

27%. While Alibaba’s continued investments in its cloud

computing business (the largest in China), video streaming,

logistics and off-line retail are likely to see earnings growth

slow over the next few years, we still see a long runway for

growth from these nascent markets.

Tencent, the Chinese video game and social media giant,

reported third quarter revenues that grew 24% on the

prior year. While Tencent’s business has been impacted

by a temporary halt on new video game approvals, its

mobile gaming revenues held up well as existing game

titles continued to monetise well. More importantly,

strong growth in Tencent’s newer business lines including

advertising and digital payments contributed to solid

operating results, and now account for the majority of

Tencent’s revenues.

Adidas grew revenues 8% and earnings 19% in the third-

quarter. Strong revenue growth and share gains in the

US and Chinese markets helped offset weaker growth

in its European home market. Improved merchandise

pricing, a higher proportion of online sales, and strong

cost control by CEO Kasper Rorsted saw continued margin

improvement. We believe the company’s solid execution

puts it on track to meet its long term financial aspirations

– which are to grow earnings at over 20% per annum from

2015 to 2020.

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis)

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.05

2
Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

TJX Companies, the US-based off-price retailer, reported

a solid set of results during the month. Revenue growth of

12% was ahead of market expectations, driven by a better

than expected 7% increase in same-store sales growth and

highlights strength in US consumer spending. That said, a

tick down in TJX’s profit margins highlight that increasing

freight costs and wages are also impacting profitability

in the retail sector. These cost pressures caused TJX

management to provide slightly cautious guidance for

earnings growth next year.

Sector Split

as at 30 November 2018

Key Details

as at 30 November 2018

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 November 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every 1% of

underperformance relative to the

change in the NZ 90 Day Bank Bill

Index with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

15% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.00

SHARES ON ISSUE

120m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$107m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

22

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

10

%

INDUSTRIALS

16

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

19

%


HEALTHCARE

Geographical Split

as at 30 November 2018

13

%

WEST EUROPE

73

%

NORTH AMERICA

9

%

FINANCIALS

9

%


ASIA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

2

%


ENERGY

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

18

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

November’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

TENCENT HOLDINGS

+17

%

ALIBABA GROUP

+13

%

SIGNATURE BANK

+12

%

EDWARDS

LIFESCIENCES

+10

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 30 November 2018

ALPHABET

7

%

ALIBABA

6

%

PAYPAL

6

%

MASTERCARD

5

%

SIGNATURE BANK

4

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 21 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.50

$

0.00

$

1.50

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

2.50

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Total Shareholder Return to 30 November 2018

Performance to 30 November 2018

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

Since Inception

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(4.0%)(5.9%)+16.3%+10.0%+6.5%

Adjusted NAV Return(1.4%)(10.2%)+3.5%+7.2%+6.2%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (0.6%)(9.3%)+6.2%+11.1%+9.8%

Benchmark Index^(1.2%)(9.3%)(1.8%)+8.1%+7.1%

3

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

TJX COMPANIES INC

-11

%

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing

it (if it elects to do so) to acquire up to 5.9m of its

shares on market in the year to 31 October 2019

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 16 April 2018, a new issue of warrants (MLNWC)

was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for

every four Marlin shares held

»Exercise Price = $0.83 per warrant, to be adjusted

down for dividends declared during the period up

to the Exercise Date

»Exercise Date = 12 April 2019

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form will be posted to warrant holders in

March 2019


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.