Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update22 January 2019MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 December 2018

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

RECORD QUARTERLY AVERAGE

SPOT PRICE DUE TO

HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND

THERMAL FUEL CONSTRAINTS

LOWER SALES VOLUMES;

COMMERCIAL DISCIPLINE LIFTS YIELD

FY2019 HYDRO GENERATION

FORECAST DOWN 50GWh

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

>$200/MWh

OTAHUHU

PRICE

VALUE

FOCUS

4,150 GWh

>> COMMENTARY

SPOT PRICES RISE DUE TO NATIONAL HYDRO CONDITIONS AND THERMAL FUEL CONSTRAINTS

Dry conditions, with national hydro inflows at 86% of average

1

, combined with limited thermal fuel availability resulted in record spot prices for

the quarter. Average spot prices reached $206/MWh at Otahuhu and $175/MWh at Benmore; an increase of $113/MWh and $85/MWh

respectively from Q2-FY2018.

GENERATION DOWN FROM RECORD LEVELS; GWAP LIFT

Mercury's hydro generation during the quarter was 1,002GWh, a 170GWh decrease from record levels in the prior comparable period,with

Waikato catchment inflows at 84% of average

1

. Mercury's full year hydro generation forecast has been reduced by50GWh to 4,150GWh.

The value of Mercury's generation improved as the LWAP/GWAP ratio moved favourably from 1.06 in Q2-FY2018 to 1.04 in this quarter due

to the timely dispatch of available generation. This was largelydriven by higher hydro generation in October, the highest-priced month in the

quarter,and illustrated through the positive movement in the hydro GWAP/TWAP ratio from 1.04 in the same quarter last year to 1.11.

Geothermal generation increasedyear-on-year as outputin the previous year was reduced bytwo-yearly maintenance outages.

WHOLESALE MARKET CONDITIONS LEAD FUTURES HIGHER; LONG-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS LIFTED

The elevated spot price environment led to a significant increase in short-term futures prices with the FY2019 Otahuhu futures price

increasingfrom $88/MWh to $135/MWh.Longer-term futures prices also lifted with the Otahuhu FY2020 and FY2021 prices increasingto

$95/MWh and $84/MWh respectively as market perspectives of the supply/demand balance were adjusted.

MERCURY MAINTAINSCOMMERCIAL DISCIPLINE IN COMPETITIVE RETAIL MARKET

Despite high levels of retail market activity, Mercury has maintained a disciplined approach in pursuing value over volume. Mercury's focus on

the customer rather than simply customer numbers contributed to the volume-weighted average price received for Mass Market sales

increasing from $120/MWh in the same period last year to $127/MWh. During the quarter higher levels of Commercial & Industrial sales

activity occurred on elevated futures prices, however any increase in volumes will be reflected only in future quarters.

Market churn remains high, rising from 21.1%

2

at the end of Q1-FY2019 to 21.3%

2

as at 31 December 2018. Mercury group churn increased to

20.4%

2

at the end of the quarter with churn for the Mercury brand also increasing to 17.6%

2

(from 16.8%

2

as at 30 September 2018). Group

churn was impacted by the transfer of Tiny Mighty Power customers to the main Mercury brand which was completed during the quarter.

IRRIGATION DEMAND DOWN;INDUSTRIAL DEMAND RISES ON TIWAI POTLINE STARTUP

National demand decreased by 2.9% on a temperature-adjusted basis versus the prior comparable period, primarily due to a significant

decrease in irrigation load (-1.6%) as high precipitationin irrigation areas increased soil moisture levels. Industrial demand made a positive

contribution (+0.4%) due to NZAS 4

th

potline being brought online,increasing average Tiwai load from 581MW in October to 611MW in

December. Excluding Tiwai, industrial sector demand decreased by 1.6% partly in response to high wholesale prices,and decreases were also

seen across the urban (-0.5%), rural (-0.3%) and dairy (-0.6%) sectors.

1

For quarters ended 31 December since 1927

2

12-monthly rolling average

VWAP
1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)

2

7487591,7031,734

3

319299616601

295325586642

1,1221,1182,4382,468

187227412471

1,3091,3452,8502,939

381393

338350

4343

4847

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

4

4334961,0971,193

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

1,0021,1722,4482,694

5

6806271,3571,317

6

41499696

1,7231,8483,9014,107

1.041.061.061.07

7

8486177188

416408

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

5

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

6

Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share

7

Includes carbon emissions from Mercury gas sales, wholly owned geothermals and proportionate emissions from the Mokai and Nga Awa Purua stations

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December 2018 and 176 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December

2017 and of 302 GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2018 and 352 GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2017

204.2189.84

LWAP/GWAP

METRIX AMI METERS ('000)

Geothermal (equity accounted)

Total

Hydro

Geothermal (consolidated)

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

CARBON EMISSIONS

('000 TONNES CO2)

North Island Customers

South Island Customers

Net Sell CfD

Dual Fuel Customers

157.9689.30

87.09190.67

Total NZEM Purchases94.93211.49

FPVV purchases from market

Spot customer purchases

End User CfD

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000)

215.2791.34

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

FPVV

($/MWh)($/MWh)

ELECTRICITY SALES

Mass Market120.35126.54

Commercial & Industrial74.2572.79

Six months ended

31 December 2018

Six months ended

31 December 2017

($/MWh)($/MWh)

126.82122.14

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 December 2018

Three months ended

31 December 2017

146.6597.14

78.4178.43

114.0590.89

138.1590.52

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

140.7392.50

135.2086.43

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

17%

31%

22%

17%

5%

8%

Financial Year Q2 2019

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

19%

31%

20%

18%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q2 2018

14%

86%

Financial Year Q2 2019

MERCURY

OTHER

14%

86%

Financial Year Q2 2018

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2018 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2019 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2018FY2019

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$80.50

$79.81

$80.21

$73.91

$77.23

$75.54

$88.17

$79.89

$77.26

$134.59

$94.50

$84.25

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2017AS AT 30 JUNE 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018

$77.59

$73.65

$75.81

$66.45

$70.04$69.94

$82.93

$73.90

$73.33

$122.45

$87.44

$80.36

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2017AS AT 30 JUNE 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEAR

Q1Q2Q3Q4

201912.116.3--

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

201611.416.020.615.3

201511.915.919.914.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.219.314.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

8,299

8,550

8,609

8,257

8,541

8,270

1,269

1,252

1,265

1,264

1,263

1,316

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2 2018Q2 2019

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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