Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
Mercury NZ Limited logo

Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update17 April 2019MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 March 2019

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

FY2019 HYDRO GENERATION

FORECAST DOWN 150GWh

TO LONG-RUN AVERAGE

NATIONAL DEMAND UP 3% FROM

INCREASES IN IRRIGATION AND

INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

RECORD SPOT PRICES DUE TO

LOW HYDRO STORAGE AND

THERMAL GENERATION CONSTRAINTS

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

RECORD

SPOT

PRICES

DEMAND

UP 3%

4,000 GWh

HYDRO

>> COMMENTARY

SUSTAINED DRY HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND THERMAL GENERATION CONSTRAINTS LED TO RECORD SPOT PRICES

Record spot prices were observed over the quarter as the market responded to limited thermal fuel and plant availability and national hydro

storage tracking below-average until the last week of March. Average spot prices for the quarter increased versus the prior comparable

period by $77/MWh to $162/MWh at Otahuhu and by $67/MWh to $145/MWh at Benmore.

HYDRO GENERATION DECREASE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY IMPROVED GEOTHERMAL AVAILABILITY

Waikato catchment inflows were 9

th

percentile

1

(or 270GWh below average) in the most recent quarter leading to hydro generation

decreasing by 273GWh from 1,035GWh in Q3-FY2018 to 762GWh in Q3-FY2019.Mercury's fullyear hydro generation forecast has been

reduced by 150GWh to 4,000GWh, the long-run annual average.

Mercury made the most of limited hydro generation as the hydro GWAP/TWAP ratio increased to 1.10 in Q3-FY2019 from 1.08 in the prior

comparable period.This, combined with steady geothermal generation, led to the LWAP/GWAP ratio decreasing from 1.06 in Q3-FY2018 to

1.05 in Q3-FY2019.

Mercury's geothermal generation for the quarter was 710GWh, an increase of 74GWh compared to the same period in FY2018 due toplanned

maintenance outages conductedin that period. These outagesenabled Mercury's geothermal fleet to provide reliable baseload generation at

98% availability versus 91% in the same period last year.

FUTURES PRICES INCREASE ON THERMAL FUELUNCERTAINTY; LONGER-TERM PRICES MODERATED BY NEW DEVELOPMENT

Ongoing uncertaintyregarding thermal fuel and plant availability flowed through to the futures market with the Otahuhu futures price for

FY2019 increasing by $15/MWh during the quarter to $150/MWh and for FY2020 by $17/MWh to $112/MWh. New generation development,

heralded by Mercury's Turitea wind farm announcement, moderated the lift in longer-term futures prices with the Otahuhu FY2021 price

rising by $8/MWh to $93/MWh over the quarter.

MERCURY CONTINUES TO PURSUE VALUE IN RETAIL MARKET

The volume-weighted average price received for Mass Market sales was flat year-on-year at $125/MWh as VWAP in Q3-FY2018 was elevated

due to a one-off wash-up of lines charges. Mercury's continued focus on customer value has seen the Mass Market VWAP for the nine

months to 31 March 2019 increase by $3.2/MWh or 2.6% compared to the same period in FY2018.

Market churn fell for the first time in four quarters, decreasing from 21.3%

2

at the end of Q2-FY2019 to 20.7%

2

as at 31 March 2019. Mercury

group churn also fell from 20.3%

2

to 19.7%

2

over the same period.

DRY CONDITIONSINCREASE IRRIGATION AND RURAL DEMAND; TIWAI POTLINE DRIVES INDUSTRIAL DEMAND HIGHER

Temperature-adjustednational demand increased by 3.0% (3.1% on an unadjusted basis) versus the prior comparable period, mainly due to

significant increases in irrigation load (+1.4%) and in the rural (+0.9%) and dairy (+0.2%) sectors which also include some irrigation demand.

Industrial sector demand (+0.8%) also increased following the first full quarter of operations for NZAS 4th potlinewhichincreased average

Tiwai demand from 572MW in the quarter ended 31 March 2018 to 610MW in the latest quarter; excluding Tiwai, industrial sectordemand

decreased by 1.0%. These increases were slightly offset by a decrease (-0.3%) in urban sector demand.

1

For quarters ended 31 March since 1927

2

12-monthly rolling average

VWAP
1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)

2

6796892,3822,423

3

350310966911

307296894938

1,0811,0553,5193,522

188211600681

1,2691,2664,1194,203

379391

335348

4443

4848

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

4

2284011,3251,593

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

Volume

(GWh)

7621,0353,2103,729

5

6605912,0171,908

6

5045147141

1,4721,6715,3745,778

1.051.061.061.07

7

7068247256

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

5

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

6

Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share

7

Includes carbon emissions from Mercury gas sales, wholly owned geothermals and proportionate emissions from the Mokai and Nga Awa Purua stations

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

147.4091.07

140.5983.01

153.5494.36

79.5779.02

Nine months ended

31 March 2019

Nine months ended

31 March 2018

($/MWh)($/MWh)

126.31123.08

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 March 2019

Three months ended

31 March 2018

FPVV

($/MWh)($/MWh)

ELECTRICITY SALES

Mass Market125.44125.02

Commercial & Industrial81.6880.27

153.0178.21

75.39151.69

Total NZEM Purchases87.92169.00

FPVV purchases from market

Spot customer purchases

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000)

168.8287.34

CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

North Island Customers

South Island Customers

Net Sell CfD

Dual Fuel Customers

End User CfD

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2019 and 148 GWh for

the 3 months ended 31 March 2018 and of 450 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2019 and 500 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March

2018. Includes End User CfD volumes

160.6182.87

LWAP/GWAP

Geothermal (equity accounted)

Total

127.4086.83

144.3188.31

Hydro

Geothermal (consolidated)

VWAP

($/MWh)

VWAP

($/MWh)

CARBON EMISSIONS

('000 TONNES CO2)

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

15%

34%

20%

18%

4%

9%

Financial Year Q3 2019

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

18%

32%

21%

17%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q3 2018

13%

87%

Financial Year Q3 2019

MERCURY

OTHER

14%

86%

Financial Year Q3 2018

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2018 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2019 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2018FY2019

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$73.68

$78.79

$78.83

$88.17

$79.89

$77.26

$134.59

$94.50

$84.25

$150.30

$111.81

$92.54

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018AS AT 31 MARCH 2019

$67.53

$71.00

$70.94

$82.93

$73.90

$73.33

$122.45

$87.44

$80.36

$130.11

$98.30

$83.13

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

FY19FY20FY21

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2018AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2018AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018AS AT 31 MARCH 2019

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEAR

Q1Q2Q3Q4

201912.116.320.2-

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

201611.416.020.615.3

201511.915.919.914.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.219.314.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

8,021

8,233

8,240

8,185

8,045

8,244

1,234

1,240

1,256

1,237

1,235

1,320

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 2018Q3 2019

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.