Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update July 2019

Operational Update1 August 2019FSFConsumer Staples

• More farmers giving Fixed Milk Price a go.
1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

JULY 2019

• Australia monthly production continues

decline, growth softening in the EU and small

decline in the US. New season starting in

New Zealand.

• Exports from New Zealand, the EU and

Australia continue to grow. Strong decline in

monthly US exports.

• Monthly imports into Asia show strong

growth. Latin America, China and Middle East

& Africa down.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for

the first month of the 2019/20 season was

14.4 million kgMS, representing less than 1%

of the full season forecast.

• Stepping up our efforts to help tackle waste.

• No new coal boilers for Fonterra.

KEY DATES

September 2019

FY19 Annual Results

Announcement.

7 November 2019

Fonterra Annual Meeting

11 November 2019

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

20 April 2020

Share Standard Compliance

2019/20 Season

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

0.313.613.9

7.60.30.4

0.1

2.3

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

AUSTRALIA MONTHLY

PRODUCTION CONTINUES

DECLINE, GROWTH

SOFTENING IN THE EU AND

SMALL DECLINE IN THE US.

NEW SEASON STARTING IN

NEW  ZEALAND

New Zealand milk

production was up 13.9% in

June compared to the same

period last year, on relatively

small winter volumes and

as a result of better weather

conditions this season than

last season.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to June was 2.3% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for June, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 13.6% in May

compared to the same

period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to May was down 7.6% on

the previous 12 months.

Dairy Australia forecasts

annual milk production to

decline by 7% to 9% for the

2018/19 season.

Dairy Australia are

forecasting a further decline

in the 2019/20 season

of 3% to 5% in total milk

production on the back

of reduced herd sizes and

strained farmer finances.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

June, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production

increased 0.1% in May

compared to the same

period last year.

Growth continues in Ireland,

though at a slightly slower

pace, up 10.8% in May.

The recent heatwave has

slowed down production

in Germany (1.5%), France

(1.6%) and The Netherlands

(2.5%) and led to abnormally

dry conditions that could

have a lasting effect on milk

production for the quarter.

EU milk production for the

12 months to May was up

0.3% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

decreased 0.3% in June,

compared to the same

period last year.

Poor on-farm profitability

is leading to an increase

in culling which is likely to

continue to impact growth

over the next few months.

Milk production for the

12 months to June was 0.4%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM

NEW  ZEALAND, THE EU AND

AUSTRALIA CONTINUE TO

GROW. LARGE DECLINE IN

MONTHLY US  EXPORTS

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by

17.1%, or 42,203 MT, in May

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by WMP

and fluid milk products,

up 34,200 MT. Butter

had the largest decline in

volume, down 3,400 MT for

the month.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 7.0%, or

229,800 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP,

fluid milk products, AMF,

and infant formula, up a

combined 270,500 MT. SMP

was down 36,000  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 11. 5%, or 52,200 MT, in

April compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by fluid milk

products, SMP, butter, cheese

and lactose, up a combined

57,300 MT. This was partially

offset by declines in WMP

and whey powder, of a

combined 8,900  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 2.7%,

or 144,200 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

SMP, lactose, WPC, fluid

milk products, MPC and

cheese were up a combined

240,100 MT. This was offset

by a 100,000 MT decline

in WMP, butter, AMF, and

cultured products.

US dairy exports declined

10.3%, or 23,300 MT, in

May compared to the same

period last year, driven by

declining imports of whey

powder by China due to

African Swine Fever, and

by declines in SMP, lactose,

WPC, butter and WMP, down

a combined 29,800 MT. This

was slightly offset by an

increase in cheese and fluid

milk products of 6,300  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May 2019 were down

4.1%, or 98,000 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by a decline in whey, WPC

and lactose, down more

than 137,000 MT. This was

partially offset by increases

in fluid milk products

and cheese.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 1.7%, or

1,150 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

This was primarily driven

by fluid milk products and

infant formula, up 7,400  MT.

This was offset by declines in

SMP, whey and cheese, down

a combined 6,800  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 3.8%, or

29,000 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Infant formula, fluid

milk products, and whey

powder made up most of

the growth in Australian

exports, up a combined

50,500 MT but partly offset

by a decline in WMP and

SMP, down 14,500 MT and

8,900 MT respectively.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

10.31.717.1

3.82.74.1

11.5

7.0

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

MONTHLY IMPORTS INTO

ASIA SHOW STRONG

GROWTH. LATIN AMERICA,

CHINA AND MIDDLE EAST &

AFRICA  DOWN

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

13.6%, or 23,700 MT, in

April compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by declines in SMP,

WMP, fluid milk products,

infant formula and whey

powder, down a combined

21,300  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to April 2019 were up 2.5%,

or 48,300 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. Increases were

recorded across a broad

range of products with fluid

milk products, SMP, WMP

and MPC up a combined

60,600 MT. This was partially

offset by whey powder, down

by 12,200  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 11. 2% or

44,700 MT, in April

compared to the same

period last year. Increases

were recorded across a

broad range of products with

cheese, WMP, SMP and fluid

milk products making up

the bulk of the increase, up

41,800  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to April were up 6.7%, or

309,000 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. Growth

continues across a broad

range of products, with fluid

milk products, SMP, WMP

and lactose up a combined

254,900  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.8%, or

17,900 MT, in April 2019

compared to the same

period last year. Declines

were recorded principally in

WMP, cheese, other powders,

AMF and ice cream down a

combined 35,200  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

April 2019 were down 8.9%,

or 373,200 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. The reduction has been

driven by cheese, fluid milk

products, WMP, SMP, butter

and other powders, down a

combined 362,200  MT.

China dairy import

volumes decreased 4.5%, or

11, 400 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year

driven by decreases in whey

powder, down 27,900  MT.

African Swine Fever has

impacted hog numbers in

China reducing demand

for whey as a feed. Lactose,

butter and infant formula also

contributed to the decline by

13,800 MT. This was partly

offset by fluid milk products,

up 28,900  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 7.2%, or

202,500 MT, compared to the

same period last year. Strong

demand continued across

WMP, fluid products SMP,

infant formula, and lactose,

up a combined 270,100  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%%

Change for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Change for April 2019

compared to April 2018

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2019

4.511.213.6

6.78.97.2

4.8

2.5

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%%

%%%

For the 2018/19 Season compared

to Previous Season

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

30.012.56.78.0

20.312.56.78.0

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collection

across Australia for the

2018/19 season was

122 million kgMS, down 20%

on last season. Fonterra

collections in June were

7 million kgMS, down 30%

on June last season.

Fonterra’s milk collection

has reduced due to poor

seasonal conditions, high

input costs, increased cow

cull rates, farm retirements

and milk collection

movement in a highly

competitive market.

Dairy Australia forecasts

annual milk production to

decline by 7% to 9% for

the 2018/19 season, with

production for the 12 months

to May down 7.7% on the

previous 12 months.

North Island milk collection

in June was 11.1 million kgMS,

up 6.7% on June last season.

The increase was primarily

driven by favourable

conditions across most

North Island regions.

South Island milk collection

in June was 3.2 million kgMS,

up 12.5% on June last season.

Southland and Otago

saw increased volumes

in June relative to last

season, from slightly better

pasture conditions.

Fonterra's collection for the

first month of the 2019/20

season, was 14.4 million

kgMS, up 8% on the

same month last season.

These volumes represent

less than 1% of the full

season forecast.

The start to the season

across both islands has been

led by a relatively mild winter

so far and good pasture

cover for this time of year.

Cow condition is also good

across the country.

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL MAY SEP DEC FEB MAY JUL SEP DEC FEB JUL 





,

, 

,

.

.

. 

. 

. 

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

strengthened in June

driven by general US dollar

weakness – a result of

increasing expectations

that US interest rates will

be lowered.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 July 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 6 August 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.0

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,450

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

23.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 7,044/MT

2.5

RENNET CASEIN

USD 3,074/MT

3.5

WMP

USD 5,523/MT

1.7

AMF

USD 3,869/MT

3.0

CHEDDAR

USD 4,406/MT

1.5

BUTTER

USD 2,536/MT

4.0

SMP

23,989

MT

LATEST AUCTION

676,309

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

MORE
FARMERS

GIVING FIXED

MILK PRICE

A GO

More farmers are giving

Fonterra’s Fixed Milk

Price option a go with

more than 70% of

applicants in the second

application window held

this month trying it for

the first time. Nearly 30%

were applying for the

second time.

The applications from

over 290 farms saw a

participation increase of

35 per cent on the June

event. Farms applied for

more than 1  million kgMS

at a fixed price of $6.81

(less the service fee

of 10c).

15 million kgMS were

made available in July,

meaning that all farmers

received the volume

they requested.

Richard Allen, Group

Director Farm Source

said that the increase

in interest in the Fixed

Milk Price tool was great

to see.

“We added this tool to

the financial toolbox to

help give farmers more

certainty over volatile

milk prices, so to see an

increase in new farms

giving the Fixed Milk

Price a go is great.

“It’s also good to see

that farmers are fixing

in small increments

- reducing their risk

further by spreading

their participation out

across several application

opportunities,”

said Richard.

Larry Whetting, who

farms in Galatea applied

for his first Fixed Milk

Price allocation after

being told about it by

a friend.

“To be honest, it wasn’t

on my radar. But after

hearing about it, I spoke

to my local bank advisor

who pointed out the

benefits. The amount we

applied for covers our

fixed costs,” Larry said.

For farmers who are

thinking about using

the Fixed Milk Price

tool in the future, Larry

encourages them to

get in touch with their

bank and talk through

their options.

In July, most farms

applied for less than

30 per cent of their

estimated production,

suggesting that farmers

are using the tool to fix

small portions of their

milk supply monthly,

rather than fixing 50 per

cent all at once.

The next application

period is 12-13 August.

7

OUR PERFORMANCE

OUR CO-OP
8

Stepping up our efforts

to help tackle waste

Across New Zealand and

the world, households and

businesses are grappling with

the challenge of how to deal

with waste.

At Fonterra, we’ve been taking a

hard look at our own waste and

how we can reduce our impact.

Last year, we sent over 5,600

tonnes of waste to landfill, and

that’s still too much. So, we’ve

announced a target to send zero

solid waste to landfill by 2025.

To achieve zero waste globally,

we will need to address our

packaging, product waste and

construction waste across our

manufacturing sites.

That’s why we’ve also

announced a new target of

100% recyclable, reusable

or compostable packaging

by 2025.

Carolyn Mortland, Director

of Sustainability, says around

90% of Fonterra’s products

sold in New Zealand are already

recyclable, which is great

progress. “This new target

stretches across our global

footprint, which means we will

need to take a good look and

have a hard think about some of

the solutions to recycling.”

“These new targets are

ambitious, and will require

innovative thinking and

collaboration to meet them.

That means building on the

work we’re already doing with

Future Posts to recycle Anchor

milk bottles into fence posts,

and SKYCITY to turn bottles

into bathroom amenities.”

“We’re not the first to come

up with these kinds of targets,

but we believe that we have an

important role to play in doing

our bit, and perhaps inspiring

other brands and companies to

take their own impact on board.”

“It’s part of our wider efforts

to improve and reduce our

environmental footprint across

all aspects of our business. We

believe in putting sustainability

at the heart of everything we do.

We care about New Zealand’s

natural environment and are

committed to protecting and

regenerating it for generations

to come.”

“Tackling the packaging

problem won’t be easy. But

we can get there with a

collective effort by everyone

– from government, local and

regional councils, businesses,

scientists, community groups

and consumers.”

No new coal boilers

for Fonterra

Fonterra is shaving eleven

years off its coal target, as it

announces a new commitment

to reduce its reliance on coal.

This commitment is the

latest in a series of targets the

Co-operative has set as it looks

to embed sustainability at the

heart of everything it does.

These targets include:

• Reducing emissions by 30%

across all its manufacturing

operations by 2030 and

achieving net zero by 2050;

• Reducing water use by 20%

across manufacturing sites

by 2020;

• A tailored Farm Environment

Plan for every Fonterra farmer

by 2025;

• 100% recyclable, reusable

and compostable packaging

by 2025;

• Powering its Stirling site in

Otago with electricity rather

than coal.

Robert Spurway, Chief

Operating Officer for Global

Operations, says Fonterra has

put a stop to installing any

new coal boilers or increasing

capacity to burn coal.

“One of the emerging themes

in our strategy review is that

sustainability will be at the

heart of everything we do. As

part of this, we want to step up

our efforts to help New Zealand

transition to a zero-carbon

economy,” says Mr Spurway.

“Our farmer owners are already

some of the most efficient

producers of milk in the world.

We need to match them in

making sure our manufacturing

operations and wider

supply chain are as efficient

as possible.”

Mr Spurway says getting out

of coal is not as easy as flicking

a switch.

“Transitioning Fonterra’s

sites away from coal requires

a staged approach. We’re

determined to go as fast as we

can but there are a number of

practical challenges we have

to overcome.

“For example, right now

New Zealand’s energy

infrastructure in some parts of

the country simply isn’t set up

to handle our requirements.

Either there aren’t alternatives

to coal available or, if there

are, they are not at the

scale needed.

“There are also cost challenges.

Transitioning to cleaner

fuels will require additional

investment and we need to

balance this with remaining

competitive. It’s right to take a

staged approach.

“We know we can’t do it alone,”

says Mr Spurway. “More

can be achieved through

partnerships and business

working together, like the

Climate Leaders Coalition and

Sustainable Business Council,

to find ways to achieve a

zero-carbon economy.”

Fonterra’s manufacturing

operations are on track to meet

its targets to reduce emissions

by 30% across all its operations

by 2030 and achieve net zero

by 2050.

Fonterra has 32 manufacturing

sites across the country, of

which about 40% of its current

processing energy is from coal.

The rest is from natural gas,

electricity and wood.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s















AVERAGE

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.

NOTE: Data for EU to April; New Zealand, Australia and US to May.

NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to April; China to May.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

NOV DEC JAN

JUL

AUG MAY

SEP FEB

OCT JUN

,
,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2019

JUNE


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

14.413.38.0%14.413.38.0%

North Island11. 110.46.7%11. 110.46.7%

South Island3.32.912.5%3.32.912.5%

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2019

JUNE


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2017/18

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Fonterra Australia7.010.0(30.0%)122.0153.0(20.3%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 JULY 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2018)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

23,989676,309

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(2.9%)10.8%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,4503,111

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

6.0%(7.5%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.0%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.


GLOSSARY

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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