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Global Dairy Update August 2019

Operational Update27 August 2019FSFConsumer Staples

• Annual Results FY19 to be announced on 12 September 2019.
1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

AUGUST 2019

• Australia production continues to decline. EU

and US production flat. Small volumes of early

season New Zealand production.

• Exports from Australia and the EU continue to

grow. Large decline in monthly US exports.

• Monthly imports into Middle East & Africa

show large decline. China, Latin America and

Asia imports continue to grow.

• Fonterra’s early season milk collection across

New Zealand for the two months to 31 July

reached 32.7 million kgMS, representing only

around 2% of the full season forecast.

• Every farm to get a unique biological emissions profile.

KEY DATES

12 September 2019

FY19 Annual Results

Announcement.

7 November 2019

Fonterra Annual Meeting

Invercargill

11 November 2019

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

20 April 2020

Share Standard Compliance

2019/20 Season

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

0.09.94.8

8.20.10.3

0.3

2.2

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

AUSTRALIA PRODUCTION

CONTINUES TO DECLINE,

EU AND US PRODUCTION

FLAT. SMALL VOLUMES OF

EARLY SEASON NEW  ZEALAND

PRODUCTION

New Zealand milk

production in July was

23.5 million kgMS, up 4.8%

compared to the same

period last year. June and

July account for only a

small proportion of total

milk production for the full

season. The increase over

last season partly represents

good conditions at the

start of the season and

supply is also supported by

winter milk.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to July was 2.2% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for June, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk production¹

decreased 9.9% in June

compared to the same

period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to June was down 8.2% on

the previous 12 months.

Dairy Australia are

forecasting a decline in the

2019/20 season of 3% to

5% in total milk production

on the back of reduced

herd sizes and strained

farmer finances.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

June, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production

decreased 0.3% in June

compared to the same

period last year.

A slowdown in production

due to the recent heatwave,

impacted Germany

(2.3%), The Netherlands

(2.7%), Spain (2.1%) and

Finland (5%).

Production in Ireland

continues to grow, up 7.5% in

June versus the same period

last year.

EU milk production for the

12 months to June was up

0.1% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

remained stable at

8 billion MT in July, compared

to the same period last year.

The lack of production

growth continues as poor

on-farm profitability is

leading to an increase

in culling.

Milk production for the

12 months to July was up

0.3% compared to the same

period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

1 Australian production for June 2019 is an estimate based on IFCN milk production figures.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA

AND THE EU CONTINUE TO

GROW. LARGE DECLINE IN

MONTHLY US  EXPORTS

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by 0.2%,

or 410 MT, in June compared

to the same period last

year. This was primarily

driven by butter and AMF,

down 9, 700 MT but mostly

offset by a WMP increase of

7, 326  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 8.4%, or

272,002 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This

was primarily driven by a

significant increase in WMP

and fluid milk products, up a

combined 250,000  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 5.9%, or 28,049 MT, in

May compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by SMP, fluid

milk products and butter, up

a combined 32,477 MT. This

was partially offset by WMP,

down 5, 993  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 3.7%, or

199,704 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

SMP, lactose and fluid

milk products were up a

combined 255,738 MT. This

was offset by a 75,231 MT

decrease in WMP.

US dairy exports decreased

12%, or 24,978 MT, in June

compared to the same

period last year. Whey

exports to China continue to

decline (7,778 MT) as a result

of the African Swine Fever.

Declines were also reported

in SMP and cheese, down a

combined 18,669  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

June 2019 were down 6.3%,

or 151,577 MT on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was largely

driven by whey powder,

WPC, lactose and SMP, down

a combined 177,916  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 10.3%, or

6, 545 MT, in June compared

to the same period last year.

This was driven by fluid milk

products, up 9,643 MT, and

partially offset by cheese

and whey powder, down a

combined 2, 847  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up 5.1%, or

38,835 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid milk product and

infant formula are the main

drivers of this increase, up a

combined 56,059 MT. WMP

and SMP declined 19,002  MT,

partially offsetting the

12 months’ growth.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

12.010.30.2

5.13.76.3

5.9

8.4

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

MONTHLY IMPORTS INTO

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

SHOW LARGE DECLINE.

CHINA, LATIN AMERICA AND

ASIA IMPORTS CONTINUE

TO  GROW

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

1.5%, or 2,611 MT, in May

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by SMP, cheese

and WPC up a combined

7,674 MT and partially

offset by decreases in

infant formula and cultured

products, down a combined

3,957  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

May 2019 were up 3.1%, or

59,775 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. Increases were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, fluid

milk products and WMP up a

combined 56,389  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 0.2% or 742 MT, in

May compared to the same

period last year. Increases

were recorded across WMP,

WPC, infant formula and

butter, up a combined

10,647 MT and largely offset

by decreases in cultured

products, SMP, Whey powder

and AMF, down a combined

10,218  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were up 6.1%, or

283,317 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. Growth continues across

a broad range of products

with fluid milk products,

SMP, WMP and lactose up a

combined 241,818 MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 24.5% or 94,891 MT

in May 2019 compared to

May last year. Decreases

were recorded in fluid milk

products, cheese, WMP,

cultured products and SMP,

down a combined 82,431  MT.

The main driver is lower

imports by Algeria as political

instability creates economic

uncertainty and drives weaker

demand in powders.

Imports for the 12 months to

May 2019 were down 11.4%,

or 482,050 MT, compared to

the same period last year. The

reduction has been driven by

cheese, fluid milk products,

WMP, SMP and other

powders down a combined

424,344  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased 2.8%, or

6,163 MT, in June compared to

the same period last year. This

was driven by increases in

fluid, WMP, SMP and cheese,

up a combined 33,283 MT but

largely offset by whey, which

was down 21,900 MT. African

swine fever continues to have

a significant impact on whey

imports as hog numbers

decline along with demand

for feed.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 8.4%, or

232,321 MT, compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports across

all key categories; WMP, fluid

products and SMP were up a

combined 279,352  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%%

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for May 2019

compared to May 2018

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2019

2.80.21.5

6.111.48.4

24.5

3.1

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 30 July

Season to date

1 June to 30 July

Season to date

1 June to 30 July

Season to date

1 June to 30 July

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

28.92.72.12.2

28.98.64.04.7

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collections

across Australia for the

first month of the 2019/20

season were 5.4 million

kgMS, a decline of 28.9%

on July last season.

This represents a small

percentage of the full

year's collection.

Fonterra’s milk collection

share continues to decline,

impacted by intense

competition for milk supply

and the continued impact of

the poor conditions on-farm.

The drought in 2019 has led

to an increase in cow cull

rates, a significant number

of farm retirements and a

continuation of historically

high input costs resulting in

a material reduction to the

Australian milk pool in FY19

versus FY18.

North Island milk collections

in July were 16.4 million

kgMS, up 2.1% on July

last season.

Season to date collections

were 27.5 million kgMS, up

4% on last season.

The increase was primarily

driven by generally

favourable conditions across

much of the North Island,

particularly in Northland and

the lower North Island.

South Island milk collections

in July were 1.9 million kgMS,

up 2.7% on July last season.

Season to date collections

were 5.2 million kgMS, up

8.6% on last season.

Otago and Southland were

the main contributors to this

increase, although volumes

were still typically small in

relation to the full season.

Fonterra's July collections

were 18.3 million kgMS, up

2.2% on the same month

last season.

Season to date collections

were 32.7 million kgMS, up

4.7% on last season. This

represents only around 2%

of full season collections.

These volumes are small in

the context of the full season

which is usual at this time of

the year. The increase over

July last year is also small

and is due to a relatively

mild July across much of the

country supporting good

pasture cover.

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  JUN  OCT  JAN 

MAR 

JUN 

AUG 

OCT  JAN  MAR  AUG 




,

,

,

.

.

. 

.

. 
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

Expectations for a softening

in world growth, driven

largely by heightened risks

to global trade, resulted in a

mildly weaker New Zealand

dollar by the end of July.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

20 August 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 3 September 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.1

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,299

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

33.2

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,348/MT

7.8

RENNET CASEIN

USD 3,857/MT

0.5

CHEDDAR

USD 4,025/MT

3.4

BUTTER

USD 2,499/MT

0.4

SMP

USD 5,061/MT

3.5

AMF

USD 3,100/MT

2.0

WMP

33,213

MT

LATEST AUCTION

66,783

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

OUR CO-OP
7

Every farm to get a

unique biological

emissions profile

When it comes to making

change on farm, it takes

time, effort and money.

Our farmer owners are

committed to reducing

their on-farm emissions but

to do so in a meaningful,

significant and sustainable

way, their decisions must be

supported by clear data and

science-based evidence.

The fact is, our farmer

owners have a low

understanding of the sources

of greenhouse gas emissions

on their farms, and what

type of things they can do to

reduce their emissions. The

data speaks for itself.

In December 2018, the

Biological Emissions

Reference Group (BERG)

found that 98% of farmers

do not know their emissions

and more than 40% did

not know how to reduce

emissions on their farm.

Fonterra recently introduced

The Co‑operative

Difference to make it easier

for farmers to know what

is expected, and recognise

those who are taking steps

to produce high quality milk

in a more sustainable way.

The Co-operative Difference

outlines what great looks

like as a marker of where we

need to be and one of our

aspirational goals is to have

greenhouse gases emissions

quantified and reduced.

To learn how we could

quantify on-farm biological

emissions, Fonterra

undertook a recording pilot

involving 113 farms – of all

sizes and geographies. This

project has given confidence

that the accurate estimation

of biological greenhouse

gas emissions can be done

at scale.

We used the information

provided by farmers annually

in their Farm Dairy Records

to complete a robust

estimation of on-farm

biological greenhouse gas

emissions and produced

reports for the pilot farms

in the 2016/2017 and

2017/2018 seasons.

Feedback from the

farmers within the

pilot was exceedingly

positive, with over 90%

of participants saying that

the reports improved their

understanding of biological

greenhouse gases on farm.

Our Sustainable Dairying

and on-farm R&D team,

with technical support

from AgResearch, will use

the modelling methods

developed during this pilot

to estimate greenhouse gas

emissions for all farms. A

New Zealand first!

Charlotte Rutherford,

Director for On-Farm

Excellence, says a key part

of achieving emissions

reductions is having a clear

understanding of where we

stand today.

“New Zealand farmers are

already some of the most

carbon-efficient in the

world. This has come about

through significant research

and investment, and a

willingness and ability to

adapt over time.

“We still have work to do so

getting a clear baseline for

each farm will be central to

moving forward.”

Tracy Brown, Matamata

farmer and Chair of the

DairyNZ Dairy Environment

Leaders Forum, says that

when it comes to reducing

on-farm emissions, no one

farm is going to have the

same solutions as the other.

“A significant New Zealand

reduction will only come

once all farms have done

what they can, according to

their individual production

system, to reduce

their emissions.

“These emission profiles

are a necessary first step to

doing just that – giving each

farm a clear picture of where

they stand and how much

they might need to do.”

Our Co-op will start

providing these unique farm

reports in Spring 2020.

Similar to the nitrogen

reports that we have

been providing our farmer

owners for six seasons, the

emission profile will be

provided at no additional

cost, and won’t require our

farmer owners to provide

any more information than

they already do or have a

farm audit.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s















AVERAGE

8


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Australia and EU to June; New Zealand and US to July.

NOTE: Data for EU to May; New Zealand, Australia and US to June.

NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to May; China to June.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

NOV DEC JAN

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP FEB

OCT JUN

,
,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

J U LY

2019

J U LY


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

18.317.92.2%32.731.24.7%

North Island16.416.02.1%27.526.54.0%

South Island1.91.92.7%5.24.88.6%

Fonterra Australia5.47.6(28.9%)5.47.6(28.9%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(20 AUGUST 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

33,21366,783

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

5.8%3.4%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,2993,301

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

7.3%5.8%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.1%)–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

10
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.


GLOSSARY

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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