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MLN – September 2019 monthly update

Operational Update15 September 2019MLNFinancials

1
A word from the Manager

Market Overview

The tone for markets in August was set on its first day, when

President Trump announced a 10% tariff on all remaining

Chinese imports. The decision came as a surprise given the

ceasefire agreed at the G20 in May, driving global equities

lower. The US S&P 500 Index fell 1.8%, the European Stoxx

600 Index dropped 1.6% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng

Index fell 7.4% for the month.

Global interest rates also headed lower in August. By the

end of the month the US 10-year bond rate had fallen to

1.5% and almost half of all European investment grade

bonds now have negative yields. The recent drop in interest

rates reflects investor concern about the global economic

outlook, with a weak global manufacturing sector and a

handful of European countries close to recession. This

includes Germany, which had been a bright spot in Europe

until recently. However, while global growth is weaker than

last year, unemployment is still low and consumer spending

is robust in many countries. Corporate earnings also

continue to grow, with the recent US earnings season better

than many feared.

When global investor fears spike the New Zealand Dollar

often falls and acts as a shock absorber for the Marlin

portfolio. This helped in August, with our weak currency

boosting Marlin’s New Zealand Dollar returns for the month.

A strong reporting season for our portfolio companies also

contributed to Marlin’s outperformance over the month.

Marlin’s gross performance return was +2.2% in August,

while our global benchmark fell 0.5%.

Portfolio Company Developments

Two of our more defensive portfolio holdings, Dollar

General and Zoetis, contributed strongly to returns in a

difficult market.

Dollar General (+16%) rallied sharply following second

quarter earnings. The company continues to capture

a greater share of low and middle-income consumers’

budgets, while internal initiatives including DG Fresh and

Fast Track are showing promise. DG Fresh is accretive to

gross margin. It brings the distribution of fresh and frozen

products in-house, lowering procurement costs and fees

paid to distributors. Fast Track involves using shelf-ready

containers to reduce the time required to stock shelves

and reduce out-of-stock occurrences. Early results have

shown a 20% increase in item availability.

Zoetis (+10%) continues to deliver for the portfolio,

buoyed by strong trends in animal health spending.

Revenue was up across all segments, with companion

animal again the standout. Zoetis’s novel dermatology

products grew around 30%, and with a strong pipeline

of new products over the next few years we expect this

growth to be sustained. Fears of a negative impact

from the African Swine flu did not eventuate, reflecting

the benefit of Zoetis’ diversified drug portfolio. With

exposure to all regions and animal species – weakness in

one area is typically offset by strength in another.

While investors have been nervous about the Chinese

economy, Alibaba (+1%) shrugged off these concerns

and delivered another strong quarter of growth. The

Chinese consumer continues to spend and this spending

continues to shift online. Alibaba’s core commerce

business grew 44% over last year, driven by advertising

and commission revenue in its ecommerce marketplaces

and 137% growth in its food delivery business. User

numbers grew 17% as Alibaba continues to penetrate

lower-tier cities and less developed regions. Retail

consumption from these regions is expected to triple

over the next ten years, which should sustain growth in

Alibaba’s business for years to come.

Tencent (-12%) was the only company to drag

materially on performance in the month. While the

overall result was solid, weakness in its advertising

business disappointed some investors. The company

delivered 21% revenue growth, supported by its

mobile gaming business. While gaming is the largest

segment, Tencent continues to diversify into the fast

growing cloud computing and financial technology

businesses, which together grew 37% over last year.

While advertising revenue growth has slowed due to

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (using NAV to four decimal places)

Monthly Update

September 2019

MLN NAV

$

1.02

SHARE PRICE

$

0.94

DISCOUNT

1

7.7

%

as at 31 August 2019

2
Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

the uncertain macro environment, we still see good growth

ahead for Tencent’s advertising business as it increases the

ad-load on the WeChat app and gives advertisers greater

access to its one billion users.

With the bulk of the Marlin portfolio having now reported

second quarter earnings we are pleased with how the

companies are tracking. With reporting season in the rear-view

mirror we have returned to our favourite pastime of looking for

new investment ideas. While markets are certainly not cheap,

we are still finding a small number of prospective investments

that we believe will make attractive investments. Our Senior

Sector Split

as at 31 August 2019

Key Details

as at 31 August 2019

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.96

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

147m

MARKET

CAPITALISATION

$138m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

27

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

9

%

FINANCIALS

18

%


HEALTH CARE

18

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

Geographical Split

as at 31 August 2019

16

%

WEST EUROPE

74

%

NORTH AMERICA

8

%

INDUSTRIALS

10

%


ASIA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

18

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

Investment Analyst, Harry Smith, is heading to Germany and

the UK shortly to meet with some of these businesses, and I

am planning a trip to the US later in the year.

August’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

DOLLAR GENERAL

+16

%

ZOETIS INC

+10

%

ESSILORLUXOTTICA

SA

+9

%

TENCENT

HOLDINGS

-8

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 31 August 2019

ALPHABET

9

%

ALIBABA GROUP

6

%

FACEBOOK

6

%

MASTERCARD

5

%

PAYPAL

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.50

$

0.00

$

1.50

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

2.50

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Total Shareholder Return to 31 August 2019

Performance to 31 August 2019

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(1.1%)+10.6%+7.6%+15.6%+13.1%

Adjusted NAV Return+2.5%+10.3%+7.7%+15.8%+11.9%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +2.2%+10.8%+10.5%+19.5%+15.7%

Benchmark Index^(0.5%)+5.1%(1.7%)+11.2%+11.9%

3

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

SIGNATURE BANK

-12

%

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing

it (if it elects to do so) to acquire up to 5.9m of its

shares on market in the year to 31 October 2019

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»Warrants put Marlin in a better position to grow

further, operate efficiently and pursue other capital

structure initiatives as appropriate

»A warrant is the right, not the obligation, to

purchase an ordinary share in Marlin at a fixed price

on a fixed date

»There are currently no warrants on issue


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell, and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.