Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update September 2019

Operational Update29 September 2019FSFConsumer Staples

•On 26 September Fonterra announced its Annual Results.
For further details view

our website –

1

GLOBAL DAIRY

UPDATE

SEPTEMBER 2019

•Still early in New Zealand season. EU and US

production flat. Australia continues to decline.

•Monthly exports from New Zealand, Australia

and the US decline. EU exports continue

to grow.


Monthly imports into China show strong

growth. Latin America, Asia and Middle East &

Africa down.

• Fonterra’s mil

k collection up 2% on last

season but it is still early in the season

with only 9% of forecast total season

production collected.

•Regenerating New Zealand’s waterways.


New targets to reduce water use.

KEY DATES

7 November 2019

Fonterra Annual Meeting

Invercargill

11 November 2019

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

December 2019

FY20 Q1 Business Update

20 April 2020

Share Standard Compliance

2019/20 Season

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

0.28.40.8

8.40.10.3

0.5

2.0

2

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

STILL EARLY IN

NEW  ZEALAND SEASON.

EU AND US PRODUCTION

FLAT. AUSTRALIA CONTINUES

TO  DECLINE

New Zealand mi

lk

production was up 0.8%

in August compared to

the same period last

year although it

is still

early in the season.

Season-to-date production

represents less

than 9% of

seasonal production.

New Zealand mi

lk

production for the 12 months

to August was 2% higher

than the same period last

year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for Au

gust, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 8.4% in July

compared to the same

period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to July was down 8.4% on

the previous 12 months.

Dairy Australia is forecasting

2019/20 season production

to decline by 3% to 5%.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for August, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

increased 0.5% in July

compared to the same

period last year.

Growth continues in Ireland,

up 10.4% in July 2019, driven

by a return to more normal

weather conditions following

challenging conditions

in 2018.

Key exporting countries

where production declined

were Germany (1.2%), France

(1 %) and The Netherlands

(1.5%) as very dry conditions

were reported for the month

of July.

EU milk production for

the 12 months to July was

stable with a movement of

0.1% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

increased slightly by 0.2%

in August, compared to the

same period last year.

Growth continues to be

limited by record low cow

numbers as poor on

-f

arm

profitability is leading to an

increase in culling.

Milk production for the

12 months to August was

0.3% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL EXPORTS

MONTHLY EXPORTS FROM

NEW  ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA

AND THE US DECLINE.

EU  EXPORTS CONTINUE

TO  GROW

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by

11.7%, or 36,417 MT, in July

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by WMP

and butter down a combined

43,137 MT. This was partially

offset by an increase in SMP

exports, up 8,985  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 6.8%, or

219,726 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP

and fluid milk products, up a

combined 198,077  MT.

EU dairy exports increased

by 6.7%, or 29,128 MT, in

June compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by SMP

and fluid milk products, up

28,180  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were up, 5.4%, or

285,597 MT, on the previous

comparable period. SMP

fluid milk products and

lactose were the main

drivers of this growth, up

a combined 325,347  MT.

This was partially offset by

a decline in WMP, down

69,048  MT.

US dairy exports decreased

4.0%, or 7,539 MT, in July

compared to the same

period last year. SMP and

whey were the main drivers

of this decline, down a

combined 8, 550 MT. African

Swine Fever continues to

have a negative impact on

whey exports to China.

Exports for the 12 months to

July 2019 were down 7.4%, or

179,086 MT on the previous

comparable period.

The decrease was driven

by whey, SMP, WPC and

lactose, down a combined

197,780  MT.

Australia dairy

exports

decreased by 1.9%, or

1, 140 MT, in July compared

to the same period last

year. This was primarily

d

riven by SMP, whey, WMP

and cheese, down 5,776 MT

and largely offset by an

increase in fluid milk

products.

E

xports for the 12 months to

July were up 4.6%, or

34,798 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid milk products, infant

formula and butter were the

main drivers of this 12-

month growth, up a

combined 59,325 MT, while

WMP and cheese declined

by 22,849 MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

4.01.911.7

4.65.47.4

6.7

6.8

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

GLOBAL IMPORTS

MONTHLY IMPORTS INTO

CHINA SHOW STRONG

GROWTH. LATIN AMERICA,

ASIA AND MIDDLE EAST &

AFRICA DOWN

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

7.5%, or 12,132 MT, in June

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by declines in cheese,

WMP and whey, down

a combined 14,164  MT.

Mexico and Peru are the

main countries behind

these declines.

Imports for the 12 months

to June 2019 were up 2.8%,

or 52,824 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. Increases were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, fluid milk

products, and WMP up by a

combined 63,439  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.4% or 16,969  MT,

in June compared to the

same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

across a broad range of

products with WMP, infant

formula, cultured products,

SMP and whey down

15,566  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 5.6%, or

261,529 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. Growth continues

across a broad range of

products with fluid milk

products, SMP, WMP and

lactose up a combined

238,526  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 9.4% or 28,764 MT

in June 2019 compared to

the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

principally in cheese, fluid

products, butter and SMP,

down a combined 19,858  MT.

Algeria imports remain low

as the country experiences

economic uncertainty, driving

weaker demand for powders.

Imports for the 12 months to

June 2019 were down 10.7%,

or 446,460 MT, compared

to the same period last year.

The decrease has been driven

largely by cheese, WMP, SMP

fluid milk products and other

powders, down a combined

393,905  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased 14%, or

32,847 MT, in July compared

to the same period last

year. This was driven mainly

by increases in fluid milk

products, up 32,749 MT, and

smaller increases in SMP,

infant formula but partially

offset by decreases in butter

and whey, which were down

by 12,574  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 9.3%, or

258,982 MT compared to the

same period last year.

Strong demand out of China

continued with imports across

all key categories; WMP, fluid

milk products and SMP were

up a combined 328,473  MT.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%%

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for June 2019

compared to June 2018

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2019

14.04.47.5

5.610.79.3

9.4

2.8

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 31 August

Season to date

1 June to 31 August

Season to date

1 June to 31 August

Season to date

1 June to 31 August

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

25.50.41.71.1

27.51.02.32.0

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION

Fonterra’s milk collections in

August were 7 million kgMS,

down 25.5% on August

last season.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the two months

to 31 August reached

12.4 million kgMS, down

27.5% on the same period

last season.

The combination of high

on-farm input costs,

challenging seasonal

conditions and heightened

competition for milk

continues to impact

Fonterra’s milk supply.

Dairy Australia is forecasting

2019/20 production to

decline by 3% to 5% on

prior season.

North Island milk collection

in August was 71.2 million

kgMS, up 1.7% on August

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 98.7 million kgMS, up

2.3% on last season.

Central North Island was

the main contributor to

the increase this month.

Pasture conditions continue

to be above average for

the majority of farmers in

the region.

South Island milk collection

in August was 26.3 million

kgMS, down 0.4% on August

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 31.6 million kgMS, up 1%

on last season.

Pasture conditions

remain strong across

the South Island, and

good animal health has

been reported.

Fonterra's total New Zealand

collection for August, was

97.6 million kgMS, up 1.1% on

the same month last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 130.3 million kgMS, up

2% on last season. These

volumes are still small in the

context of the full season

as is usual for this time of

the year.

Overall, most regions

have come through winter

reasonably well. August saw

a lot of days with rainfall

recorded, although total

rainfall was only marginally

above August last season.

Cow condition is good, and

pasture cover also generally

positive, resulting in milk

volumes slightly above

production for the same

month last season.

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

SEP  JUN  NOV  FEB APR JUL SEP NOV  JAN  APR  SEP 





,

,

,

.

.

. 

.

. 

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

FONTERRA GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE RESULTS

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity prices

and New Zealand

dollar trend

A reduction in the

New Zealand Official Cash

Rate coupled with global

trade tensions stemming

from ongoing concerns for

US-China trade relations

resulted in the New Zealand

dollar weakening over the

month of August.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

17 September 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 1 October 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

2.6

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,327

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

36.7

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,636/MT

0.1

RENNET CASEIN

USD 4,129/MT

2.5

BUTTER

USD 5,030/MT

0.8

AMF

USD 3,133/MT

1.8

WMP

USD 3,846/MT

0.5

CHEDDAR

USD 2,607/MT

3.5

SMP

36,666

MT

LATEST AUCTION

141,645

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

New targets to reduce water use
More than 3.4 billion litres

of water (or ab

out the same

as 1,350 Olympic swimming

pools) will be saved every

year under new water

ta rgets launched by Fonterra

this month.

The Co-operative has

announced that six

manufacturing sites in

water-constrained regions

will reduce their water use

by 3 0% by 2030 as part

of its move to accelerate

sustainability to the heart of

its strategy.

“Water is a precious resource

and we can’t take it for

granted. For some parts of

New Zealand, water isn’t

always in the right place at

the right time, and our water

use in these regions can put

stress on local water sources

and the communities

that rely on them, ” says

Fonterra Director NZ

Manufacturing Alan van der

Nagel.

“Reducing our water use at

our manufacturing sites is

the right thing to do for the

environment and for the

communities we operate in.

That’s why we’ve set this

new target, which will save

billions of litres of water.”

The six sites are

Maungatoroto, Lichfield,

Brightwater, Darfield,

Edendale and Clandeboye.

M

r van der Nagel says taking

a targeted approach will

ultimately result in better

efficiency and outcomes.

“We’ve focused on the six

sites where major water

savings can have the

greatest impact. This means

we can target efforts and

investment into those

regions most

in need.”

All other sites across

Fonterra’s entire

manufacturing footprint will

take steps to keep water use

to FY18 baselines.

“Some initiatives are

underway with more in the

pipeline. This target will

require some clever ideas

and creative thinking. But

our site teams are already

rising to the challenge.”

This target is the latest in

a series of commitments

the Co-operative has set

as it embeds sustainability

at the heart of its strategy.

These include:

•No more coal boilers or

increasing capacity to

burn coal

•Reducing emissions by 30%

across all manufacturing

operations by 2030, on the

way to net zero by 2050

•Improving the energy

intensity of our sites by

20% by 2020

•No s

olid waste to landfills

by 2025


100% recyclable, reusable

and compostable packaging

by 2025

•A tailored farm

environment plan for every

Fonterra farmer by 2025

•F

arm-specific emissions

reports for every Fonterra

farmer by the end of

this season.

Fonterra cares about water,

whether it’s on-farm or at our

manufacturing sites. More

information about our efforts

to look after water can be

found on our website –

Here’s some of the

things we’re doing across

New Zealand to help

our waterways –

OUR CO-OP

7

Regenerating New Zealand’s waterways

Last month, countries around

the globe marked World

Water Week, an annual focal

point for global water issues.

It’s a time when thousands

of decision-makers, scientists

and experts from over

130 countries converge on

Sweden to swap ideas and

develop plans to preserve this

precious natural resource.

A little closer to home,

communities all over

New Zealand are helping to

restore waterways in their

local areas. We want to do

our bit too.

Our streams, lakes, wetlands

and rivers have suffered over

the last 150 years because

of the effects of agriculture.

Many of them aren’t in the

condition we all want them

to be. We acknowledge we’ve

been part of the problem

and want to help regenerate

our water waterways for all

New Zealanders to enjoy

and return them to places

where nature, birds and fish

can thrive.

Dairy farmers have spent

around $1 billion on

on

-farm initiatives to help

restore our waterways. This

includes upgrading effluent

management systems,

fencing streams and rivers,

putting in bridges to keep

stock out of waterways,

and reducing run

-off with

riparian planting.

That’s a big investment and

has helped us make some

progress. But there’s more to

be done, and it must be done

fast, and together.

We’ve committed to

building on this good

work and making a

meaningful difference.

There isn’t a silver bullet

or a quick fix to restore

our waterways.

We know our efforts are only

part of tackling the problem,

and it may take longer than

some of us would like, but

we’re committed to playing

our part to make things right

and are looking forward

to working with others on

the challenge.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s















AVERAGE

8


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Australia and EU to July; New Zealand and US to August.

NOTE: Data for EU to June; New Zealand, Australia and US to July.

NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to June; China to July.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

NOV DEC JAN

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB

OCT JUN

,
,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

9


SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

AUGUST

2019

AUGUST


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

97.696.51.1%130.3127.72.0%

North Island71.270.01.7%98.796.52.3%

South Island26.426.5(0.4%)31.631.21.0%

Fonterra Australia7.09.4(25.5%)12.417.1(27.5%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(17 SEPTEMBER 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

36,666141,645

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(4.6%)0.5%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3273,292

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

12.4%8.1%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

2.6%–

Fonterra GDT Results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

10
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

LME (Liquid Milk

Equivalent)

A standard measure of the

amount of milk (in litres)

allocated to each product

based on the amount of fat

and protein (“milk solids”) in

the product relative to the

amount of fat and protein in

a standardised raw milk.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.


GLOSSARY

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time

Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.