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Global Dairy Update October 2019

Operational Update30 October 2019FSFConsumer Staples

• India’s foodservice sector has a new partner in Anchor™
Food Professionals.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

OCTOBER 2019

• Early season production in New Zealand in line

with last season. US and EU production flat

12 months.

• Exports from New Zealand and the EU show

strong growth. US and Australia monthly

exports continue to decline.

• China, Asia and Latin America imports

increase. Middle East & Africa monthly

imports down.

• Fonterra’s milk collection across New Zealand

reached 309 million kgMS, up 0.8% on last

season and accounts for 20% of forecast total

season production.

• Fonterra appoints Chief Operating Officer.

• Fonterra GoodSorts taking GoodYarn to the next level.

Key Dates

7 November 2019

Fonterra Annual Meeting

Invercargill

11 November 2019

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting Auckland

November/December 2019

FY20 Q1 Business Update

20 April 2020

Share Standard Compliance

2019/20 Season

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for the 12 months

to September 2019

Change for the 12 months

to September 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

1.35.90.7

6.20.00.3

1.0

1.2

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Early season production in

New Zealand in line with

last season. US and EU

production flat 12 months

New Zealand milk

production¹ was down

0.7% on a litre basis but was

up 0.7% on a milk solids basis

in September compared to

the same period last year. The

variance between milk solids

and liquid milk indicates

improved pasture quality

from last September.

Despite several cold snaps

in parts of the South Island,

average temperatures were

recorded across much of the

country and on-farm pasture

conditions remain good.

New Zealand milk production

for the 12 months to

September was 1.2% higher

than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for September, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production decreased 5.9%

in August compared to the

same period last year.

Production for the 12 months

to August was down 6.2% on

the previous 12 months.

The Bureau of Meteorology

spring/summer forecasts

are for well-below-average

rainfall and well-above-

average temperatures

across the majority of

Australia which will

continue to pressure on milk

production if the seasonal

forecast materialises.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

September, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production

increased by 1.0% in August

compared to the same

period last year.

Production growth was

seen from key exporting

countries such as Poland

(2.2%), Spain (3.5%), Ireland

(2.2%), Germany (0.6%), and

France (0.8%).

EU milk production for the

12 months to August was

flat compared to the same

period last year. Significant

increases in Ireland, United

Kingdom and Poland’s yearly

production were offset by

large declines in production

in the Netherlands, France

and in Italy.

US milk production

increased by 1.3% in

September compared to the

same period last year.

Despite a continued decline

in cow numbers, an increase

in milk per cow in September

drove production higher

and may indicate a return

to production growth in the

coming months.

Milk production for the 12

months to September was

0.3% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

Exports from New Zealand

and the EU show strong

growth. US and Australia

monthly exports continue

to decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 11.9%,

or 14,088 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by fluid milk

products, SMP and infant

formula, up a combined

18,500 MT. This was partially

offset by a decrease in butter

and AMF exports, down a

combined 4,515  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 7.0%, or

228,808 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by WMP

and fluid milk products, up a

combined 206,348  MT.

EU dairy exports

increased by 9.3%, or

44,264 MT, in July compared

to the same period last year.

This was driven by increases

across all products but

primarily by SMP, butter,

cheese and casein, up

30,990  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up, 5.9%, or

314,183 MT, on the previous

comparable period. SMP

fluid milk products, lactose

and cheese were the main

drivers of this growth, up

a combined 345,172  MT.

This was partially offset by

a decline in WMP, down

62,720  MT.

US dairy exports

decreased 11. 3%, or

23,723 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year. SMP, whey,

lactose and WPC were the

main drivers of this decline,

down a combined 24,910  MT.

The downturn in whey for

feed as a result of African

swine fever continues to

have a negative impact on

whey exports to China.

Exports for the 12 months

to August 2019 were down

9.2%, or 223,761 MT on the

previous comparable period.

The decrease was driven

by whey, SMP, WPC and

lactose, down a combined

241,593  MT.

Australia dairy exports

decreased by 6.0%, or

3,449 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year. This was

primarily driven by SMP,

cheese, infant formula and

whey, down a combined

8,591 MT but largely offset

by an increase in fluid milk

products of 6,896  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 3.5%, or

26,613 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Fluid milk products, infant

formula and butter were the

main drivers of this 12-month

growth, up a combined

63,131 MT while WMP,

cheese and SMP declined by

33,349  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

11.36.011.9

3.55.99.2

9.3

7.0

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China, Asia and

Latin America imports

increase. Middle East

& Africa monthly

imports down

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

9.8%, or 15,703 MT, in July

compared to the same

period last year. This was

driven by increases in WMP,

SMP, fluid milk products

and WPC, up a combined

15,878  MT.

Mexico and Peru are the

main drivers behind the

year-on-year fluctuation.

Imports for the 12 months to

July 2019 were up 3.6%, or

67,985 MT, compared to the

same period the previous

year. Increases were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, WMP,

and fluid milk products up by

a combined 76,440  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 1.1% or 4,676  MT,

in July compared to the same

period last year. Decreases

were recorded across a broad

range of products with SMP,

infant formula, ice cream

and fluid products down

10,634 MT but partially offset

by increases in whey, MPC

and cheese, up 6,876  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to July were up 5.1%, or

240,404 MT, compared to

the same period the previous

year. Growth continues

across a broad range of

products with SMP, fluid milk

products, WMP and lactose

up a combined 223,312  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.5% or 15,725 MT

in July 2019 compared to the

same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

principally in fluid milk

products, butter and WMP,

down a combined 28,993 MT

but partially offset by an

increase of 12,067 MT in

infant formula. Libya is the

main driver of the decline in

fluid milk products imports.

Imports for the 12 months

to July 2019 were down

5.7% compared to the same

period last year, driven

largely by cheese and

WMP, down a combined

186,525  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased 4.7%, or

11, 912 MT, in August compared

to the same period last year.

This was driven by increases in

fluid milk products, SMP and

infant formula, up 25,668  MT,

but partially offset by

decreases in WMP and butter,

down by 13,969  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 9.5%, or

264,857 MT compared to

the same period last year.

Strong demand continued

across all key categories.

Fluid milk products, WMP,

SMP and infant formula were

up a combined 382,293  MT,

partially offset by a continuing

decline in whey, down

90,936 MT, due to ongoing

African swine fever.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%%

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for August 2019

compared to August 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for July 2019

compared to July 2018

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2019

4.71.19.8

5.15.79.5

4.5

3.6

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%%

Season to date

1 July to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

Change for September 2019

compared to September 2018

15.22.11.10.1

22.11.11.70.8

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY

















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection 2019/20 Season

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collections in September

were 10.7 million kgMS,

down 15.2% on September

last season.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the three

months to 30 September

reached 23.2 million kgMS,

down 22.1% on the same

period last season.

The combination of high

on-farm input costs, poor

seasonal conditions across

Australia, reduced herd

numbers and intense

competition for milk is

impacting Fonterra’s

milk supply.

Dairy Australia is forecasting

2019/20 production to

decline by 3% to 5% on

prior season.

North Island milk

collection in September was

112.1 million kgMS, up 1.1% on

last September.

Season to date collection

was 210.9 million kgMS, up

1.7% on last season.

Favourable conditions are

expected to continue for

the North Island. These

conditions have contributed

to the slight increase in

collections for September.

South Island milk

collection in September was

66.9 million kgMS, down

2.1% on last September.

Season to date collection

was 98.5 million kgMS, down

1.1% on last season.

Cooler weather has seen

South Island collections

marginally down relative to

the same period last year.

Pasture cover remains strong.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for September,

was 179.1 million kgMS, down

0.1% on the same month

last season.

Season to date collection

was 309.4 million kgMS, up

0.8% on last season.

Calving is finishing up in

most regions with cow

condition remaining positive

leading into mating.

Pasture conditions have been

reported to be generally

good with minimal impact

from recent cold weather.

%

%
%

%

%

%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

SEP  JUL 

DEC 

MAR MAY JUL OCT DEC  FEB 

MAY 

OCT 




,

,

,

.

.

. 

.

. 
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

A decline in New Zealand’s

economic outlook helped

fuel expectations for

additional interest rate cuts

by the RBNZ, this, together

with rising geopolitical

tensions, resulted in the NZD

weakening across September.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

15 October 2019:

The next trading event will be held on 5 November 2019. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,353

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

38.0

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,636/MT

2.2

CHEDDAR

USD 2,753/MT

2.5

SMP

USD 3,133/MT

0.3

WMP

USD 5,065/MT

1.3

AMF

USD 4,105/MT

0.5

BUTTER

USD 6,916/MT

3.5

RENNET CASEIN

38,030

MT

LATEST AUCTION

217,415

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

India’s foodservice

sector has a new

partner in Anchor™

Food Professionals

Chefs in India’s

rapidly-growing foodservice

sector are the latest to

benefit from Fonterra’s

foodservice offering,

following the launch of

Anchor™ Food Professionals

at the SIAL food innovation

exhibition held in New Delhi.

The launch demonstrates

the Co-op's new strategy

in action as it develops

partnerships and new

foodservice markets.

Fonterra Chief Executive

Officer for Asia Pacific

Judith Swales explains that as

the world’s largest producer

and consumer of dairy,

India’s appetite for dairy is

significant and shows no

signs of slowing.

Over the next seven years,

demand for dairy from Indian

consumers is set to increase

by 82 billion litres – seven

times the forecast growth for

China. The country’s young

population is looking to level

up its dairy consumption

with new products that meet

their expectations of higher

quality and better nutrition.

The Co-op’s dairy

heritage coupled with

uncompromising food safety

and quality standards are a

strong draw for consumers in

the Indian market.

However, Judith explains that

understanding the nuances

of this dynamic market will

be key to making an impact

in India.

“We recognise that our

expertise in dairy is just one

part of the equation in the

Indian market. If we want to

make a difference, we can’t

go it alone. In this diverse

market, it’s essential to find

the right partners with the

market knowledge, industry

expertise and infrastructure

to reach our consumers.

“That’s why we’ve chosen

to partner with Future

Consumer. Through our joint

venture, Fonterra Future

Dairy, launched in August

2018, we are taking a truly

collaborative approach to

bring new generation of

dairy products to this rapidly

expanding market.”

With the launch of Anchor™

Food Professionals in

India, the Co-op aims to

enable chefs in the Indian

foodservice sector to create

food that not only tastes

and looks better but helps

them to run a more efficient

kitchen with better yield

and less wastage, giving

them the edge in the

foodservice industry.

The Indian foodservice

sector is set to grow at 9%

each year until 2023, when it

is predicted to reach a total

value of over NZ$130 billion.

Dairy is estimated to feature

in 10% of food served in

restaurants, making it an

essential component in the

food landscape.

The first products in the

range – Extra Whip Whipping

Cream, Laminated Butter

Sheets, Extra Stretch

Mozzarella Cheese and

Traditional Style Cream

Cheese, are made in

New Zealand and are

available now.

The launch of the

foodservice product range

follows the launch of four

consumer products from

Fonterra Future Dairy’s

consumer brand Dreamery in

June this year.

The Dreamery Dahi (curd),

UHT Toned Milk, Chocolate

and Strawberry Milkshakes

are currently available at over

1,100 Future Group Modern

Trade stores across India, as

well as 500 general trade

stores in key cities including

Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore,

Ahmedabad and Hyderabad.

The response so far has been

positive, with Dreamery’s

Milk Shakes and UHT

Toned Milk achieving more

than 10% of sales in their

respective categories in

Future Retail Stores.

Future Consumer’s

parent company Future

Group is present in 26 of

31 Indian states with over

2,000 modern trade

outlets and 5,000 public

distribution outlets, as

well as a nationwide

cold-chain and ambient

distribution network.

Fonterra GoodSorts
taking GoodYarn to the

next level

“GoodYarn is a story of

helping everyday people talk

about mental health,” says

Terry Buckingham, Fonterra

Health and Wellbeing

Manager, New Zealand.

“Recently, our team of tanker

operators asked if we had

any tools to help them talk

about mental health and

help others.”

“Kiwi men are often the first

to help someone, however

they’re often the last to ask

for help for themselves.

When I went looking for

some tools it started a

special relationship with the

GoodYarn team, which lead

to GoodYarn workshops

being delivered across

our operations.

GoodYarn is a peer delivery

programme, which was

initially formed as a

programme that could be

delivered by farmers for

farmers. It's the peer delivery

model that has been the key

to the success of GoodYarn.

There is a growing realisation

amongst experts that peer

delivery is as effective, if not

more effective, than expert

led mental health promotion.

Following on from the first

successful year of GoodYarn

workshops, the Farm Source

team delivered it to their

technical sales reps.

Distribution centre teams

also rolled it out last year and

now at our Fanshawe Street

office the Health, Safety and

Wellbeing Committee have

taken GoodYarn to the next

level by adding GoodSorts.

GoodSorts is a group

of volunteers who are

recognized as a champion of

mental health awareness and

have the same or similar skill

set to Mental Health First

Aiders – with the addition

of delivering GoodYarn

workshops.

Our Co-op

7

Fonterra is pleased

to announce the

appointment of

Fraser Whineray to its

management team in

the newly created role

of Chief Operating

Officer, starting in

early 2020

Mr Whineray is currently the

Chief Executive of Mercury

NZ and has held several

senior leadership roles since

joining the company in 2008.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says Mr Whineray is

a results-orientated

New Zealand business leader.

“Fraser has demonstrated he

can transform organisations

to achieve growth in

complex environments

through a focus on

innovation, customers and

his team. He is motivated to

contribute to New Zealand’s

export success and to drive

sustainability, innovation and

efficiency in business – three

strengths that we believe can

create real value.

Fraser is also no stranger to

the dairy industry, having

started his career as a

graduate of the New Zealand

Dairy Board’s technical

training programme and

spending time at some of

our manufacturing sites and

in our export markets. He is

going to be a great addition

to our management team”.

Mr Whineray says he is

looking forward to returning

to the dairy sector and

working alongside the many

dedicated people at Fonterra.

“I am pleased to be able to

continue in a role which

contributes to New Zealand,

and has strong, genuine

relationships with many

regional communities, Maori

land trusts and local iwi

across the country”.

Mr Whineray has held

roles at Credit Suisse,

Puhoi Valley Cheese and

Carter Holt Harvey.

He is the Chair of the

Prime Minister’s Business

Advisory Council and

holds an MBA from the

University of Cambridge, a

Post Graduate Diploma in

Dairy Science & Technology

from Massey University and

a Bachelor of Chemical &

Process Engineering from the

University of Canterbury.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

JUL JUN APR MAR DEC JAN FEB SEP NOV OCT MAY AUG 

MT s













AVERAGE

8


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Australia and EU to August; New Zealand and US to September.

NOTE: Data for EU to July; New Zealand, Australia and US to August.

NOTE: Data for Latin America, Asia, Middle East & Africa to July; China to August.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

DEC OCT

JAN

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

FEB

NOV JUN

,
,

,

 ,

,

,

,

,

, 

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

9


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

SEPTEMBER

2019

SEPTEMBER


2018

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

179.1179.3(0.1%)309.4307.00.8%

North Island112.1110.91.1%210.9207.41.7%

South Island66.968.4(2.1%)98.599.6(1.1%)

Fonterra Australia10.712.7(15.5%)23.229.8(22.1%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(15 OCTOBER 2019)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

38,030217,415

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(7.8%)(2.7%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,3533,310

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

15.3%10.4%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.5%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

10
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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