Investor Presentation
UBS Australasia Conference
November 2019
Putting our energy where it matters
Disclaimer and important information
This presentation may contain projections or forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items.
Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ materially from those
stated in any forward-looking statement based
on a number of important factors and risks.
Although management may indicate and believe
that the assumptions underlying the forward-
looking statements are reasonable, any of the
assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect
and, therefore, there can be no assurance that
the results contemplated in the forward-looking
statements will be realised.
EBITDAF, underlying profit, free cash flow and
operating free cash flow are non-GAAP
(generally accepted accounting practice)
measures. Information regarding the
usefulness, calculation and reconciliation of
these measures is provided in the supporting
material.
Furthermore, while all reasonable care has been
taken in compiling this presentation, Contact
accepts no responsibility for any errors or
omissions.
This presentation does not constitute investment
advice.
Numbers in the presentation have not all been
rounded and might not appear to add.
All logos and brands are property of their
respective owners. All company, product and
service names used in this presentation are for
identification purposes only.
All references to $ are New Zealand dollars
2
This presentation has been abridged from the fulsome international investor
roadshow presentation delivered during October
Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
3
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ONLINE
https://contact.co.nz/aboutus/investor-centre/reports-and-presentations#Presentations
≠
TIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER
Production
+4kT¹
Staff
+18% over
3 years
Cash
tax paid
$21m in
FY18
3 year total
EBITDA
less capex²
+$71m
•Impact on the Southland and Taranaki
economy, loss of regional jobs.
•Carbon leakage from low carbon aluminum.
•Inefficient capital investment decisions.
•Risk to New Zealand's long-term
decarbonisation goals.
•Electricity would flow North, in a curtailment
scenario without grid upgrades.
•Reduced return on thermal assets and lower
natural gas demand.
•Transmission pricing delays –initial benefits to
NZAS have been eroded.
•Large closing costs (estimate >$300m on closure).
•Uncertainty from 12 month termination right.
•Infrastructure and supply chain to support NZAS.
•Retooling and reskilling –time and investment.
“Rio Tinto will work
with all stakeholders
including the government,
suppliers, communities
and employeesin order to
find a solution that will
ensure a profitable future
for this plant.”
Rio Tinto Aluminium
ChiefExecutive, Alf Barrios
22.10.19
Suppliers
Government
Communities
& employees
Target completion first quarter 2020
Independent analysis of smelter financial performance indicates positive cash flows.
4
> Demand growth
> Dairy electrification real
> Short gas book
> Close baseload thermal (TCC)
> Strong balance sheet
> Manage North Island reserves,
increase HVDC flow without
investment
Early Lower South Island transmission
upgrade
Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
> Thermal portfolio marginal at best
¹ Commissioned a 4th potline in late 2018, increasing production backed by a new electricity contract until
12/2022, ² Source Pacific Aluminium (New Zealand) Limited financial statements: EBITDAF is equal to Profit
before Income Tax; add back Depreciation, Finance costs and fair value movements in derivatives. Capex is
equal to cash payments for Plant, Property and Equipment
Sources: Productivity Commission's Low Emissions Economy Issues Paper, August 2017
and New Zealand's Action on Climate Change, September 2016
Meaningful reductions in carbon emissions
are possible with renewable electricity
displacing carbon intensive fuels.
CARBON REDUCTION OPPORTUNITY
With high
renewable
penetration,
electricity is the
solution to reducing
carbon emissions,
not the problem.
5
Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
=
Estimated total
capital cost
~11 to 12 cps
Operating free
cash flow yield
~$1bn
* Assumes debt
funded at current
rates with an
$75-85/MWh
wholesale price.
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL
Opportunity
Possible staging timing dependent on results of appraisal drilling,
demand growth and economic thermal substitution.
A world-class
geothermal
expertise with
consented
brownfield
development
potential.
in operating free cash flow from capital
deployment into an asset that we have
a 60 year track record of managing.
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Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
The focus on continuous improvement, in a period of flat
demand, has seen operational performance metrics improve.
Maintaining financial discipline
Controllable opexand capex costs ($m)
Rewarding shareholders
Ordinary dividends(cps)
391
357
301
272
260
FY17FY18FY16FY19FY20
target
1.9
3.3
3.2
5.2
1.3
FY19FY15FY17FY16FY18
Safe and engaged employees
Total recordable injury frequency rate
(Recordable injuries per million hours worked)
Employee engagement (%)
FY18
77%
68%
FY16FY17FY19FY20
target
56%
75%
>82%
FOCUS ON OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT
7
1111
13
1616
1515
19
2323
FY17FY16FY18FY19
32
FY20
target
2626
3939
Final dividend
Interim dividend
Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
* Operating Cash Flow less stay-in-business capex and net interest costs after adjusting for expected medium-term stay-in-business capital
expenditure, mean hydrology and appropriate Board consideration of a sustainable financial structure including targeting the long-term credit
rating of BBB from S&P.
Balance sheet capacity
Headroom to BBB ($m)
S&P net debt ($m)
Assuming medium-term
EBITDAF of $480m
2.8x
Net debt to
EBITDAF
With a new long-term user contracted to access AGS, S&P will no longer capitalise the storage service
payments from FY20.
DIVIDEND POLICY CERTAINTY
968
376
Ordinary
dividend of
of expected Operating
FreeCashFlow*
39 cps
At the closing share
price on 15 November
2019 of $6.90 per
share
Ordinary
dividend
Distribution
policy
8
Contact Energy / UBS conference presentation / November 2019
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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