MLN – December 2019 monthly update
1
A word from the Manager
Marlin’s gross return for the month was +3.5%, compared
with our global benchmark which gained 2.8%.
November was another good month for global equity
markets. The US-China trade negotiations continue to drag
on. Despite little progress during the month, the absence
of a further deterioration in negotiations seems to have
given markets hope that a deal can be reached. This trade
optimism, coupled with a slight pickup in business sentiment
saw the S&P index up 3.6%, reaching all-time highs. Europe
also saw signs of improved manufacturing and consumer
activity with markets rise 2.5%. The UK saw 3rd quarter
GDP and wage growth below expectations; however focus
remains on the upcoming elections in December. Despite
the weaker data, the UK market rose 2.2%.
Portfolio Company Developments
Alibaba (+13%) was the top performer in the portfolio. Early
in the month, Alibaba reported strong results with continued
strength in top-line growth on the back of a resilient Chinese
consumer, and flat margins despite ongoing investment into
growth segments such as cloud and video. Despite these
strong results, the share price reaction was muted. Most
of the outperformance in November followed the IPO and
secondary listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange towards
the end of the month, with shares up 10% post listing. Not
only does the new listing increase demand for Alibaba stock,
but also helps de-risk concerns that Chinese ADRs
2
could be
blacklisted by US pension funds or even delisted from US
exchanges in the event of an escalating trade war.
TJX (+6%) is benefitting as full-price retail struggles.
The company looks to buy closeout inventory from other
retailers and manufacturers and sell the heavily discounted
items to consumers through a ‘treasure-hunt’ experience.
Management are seeing a buyer’s market for off-price
inventory with a plethora of good inventory available –
including from some e-commerce retailers that have over-
ordered stock. This favourable environment is transitioning
into strong TJX same store sales growth in both the US and
Europe.
Tencent (+3%) also reported in November with mixed
results. Mobile gaming grew 25% as it moves past
the regulatory freeze on new game approvals. Social
advertising growth accelerated to 32% as it continues
to increase ad load on the WeChat app and fend off
increased competition for advertising dollars from short-
video players such as ByteDance. Cloud grew at an above-
market rate of 80%. However, this was offset by 7% decline
in PC gaming and a 28% decline in media advertising. In
addition to ongoing macro concerns, delays in approvals
for new video content, particularly costume drama, saw
sponsorship advertising revenue fall. Despite these
challenges total revenue grew 21% with operating profit
up 27% - highlighting the strength of Tencent’s diversified
business model and exposure to key secular trends such a
mobile gaming, digital payments and cloud.
Paypal (+4%) announced the US$4 billion acquisition
of Honey Science Corporation, the maker of a deal-
finding browser add-on and mobile application. Honey’s
tools help consumers find discounts during the online
checkout process and help merchants reduce shopping
cart abandonment and increase sales. When integrated
with PayPal and Venmo’s existing payment products it has
the potential to save PayPal users money by checking for
discount codes seamlessly while users are going through
the online checkout. We see the deal as a sensible step to
increase PayPal’s value proposition to both shoppers and
merchants. While we see the strategic merits of the deal,
the $4 billion price tag was steep and we will be watching
closely to see how management integrate and extract
value from the acquisition.
Dollar Tree (-17%) shares fell following their quarterly
earnings report. The company is attempting to turn around
performance at discount retailer Family Dollar. There
were positive signs with same store sales growing more
than 2% on the back of more customers visiting the store.
Unfortunately, this progress was outweighed by higher
than expected costs at both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar
stores. This is being driven by higher wage and freight
costs and caused the company to lower its earnings
outlook for the year. Despite the disappointing result, we
believe the company is on track to deliver sustained growth
in both its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar operations.
1
Share Price Discount to NAV (using NAV to four decimal places and including warrant price on a pro-rated basis).
2
There are approximately 300 Chinese companies that are traded in the US, either on exchanges or over the counter, either as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) or as shares.
Monthly Update
December 2019
MLN NAV
$
1.03
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.07
DISCOUNT
1
1.6
%
as at 30 November 2019
SHARE PRICE
$
1.00
2
Sector Split
as at 30 November 2019
Key Details
as at 30 November 2019
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
25-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management
Limited
MANAGEMENT
FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE
FEE HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.94
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
148m
MARKET
CAPITALISATION
$148m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20%
of gross asset value)
26
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
9
%
FINANCIALS
17
%
HEALTH CARE
20
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Geographical Split
as at 30 November 2019
16
%
WEST EUROPE
72
%
NORTH AMERICA
8
%
INDUSTRIALS
11
%
ASIA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
19
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
Portfolio changes
We exited autoparts distributor, LKQ, during the quarter.
LKQ has been in our portfolio since 2014. Given high
‘alternative part’ penetration in the US and LKQ’s high
market share, organic growth was getting harder to come
by. The growth outlook was also impacted by a mix shift
towards the lower growth European market. We were less
comfortable with the European business model and the
company’s ability to improve margins in that market. Given
the recent spike in LKQ’s share price we saw the company as
fully valued and took the opportunity to exit the stock.
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
3
November’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.
ALIBABA GROUP
+13
%
DESCARTES SYSTEMS
+11
%
ICON PLC
+11
%
DOLLAR TREE
+8
%
5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 30 November 2019
ALPHABET
8
%
ALIBABA GROUP
6
%
FACEBOOK
6
%
PAYPAL
6
%
TJX COMPANIES
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.50
$
0.00
$
1.50
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
$
2.50
Nov
2019
Total Shareholder Return to 30 November 2019
Performance to 30 November 2019
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+7.1%+10.5%+26.5%+19.6%+14.9%
Adjusted NAV Return+3.0%+3.5%+24.2%+18.4%+11.9%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +3.5%+4.7%+27.5%+22.4%+15.7%
Benchmark Index^+2.8%+6.3%+15.3%+12.5%+12.6%
^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
TYLER
TECHNOLOGIES
-17
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy
or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an
authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio
companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
About
Marlin Global
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 25 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia)
through a single, professionally
managed investment. The aim
of Marlin is to offer investors
competitive returns through capital
growth and dividends.
Capital Management Strategies
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in
August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted
to be paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends
received, interest income, investment gains
and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased
capital rather than a regular income stream have
the opportunity to participate in the company’s
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%
discount to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on
1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to
New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not
been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if
it elects to do so) to acquire up to 7.3m of its shares on
market in the year to 31 October 2020
»Shares bought back by the company are held as
treasury stock
» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be
re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)
was announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held, (at record date 6 November 2019)
»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted down
for dividends declared during the period up to the
Exercise Date
»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in
September 2020
Management
Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters and Harry Smith (Senior
Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together
they have significant combined
experience and are very capable
of researching and investing in
the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is
based in Takapuna, Auckland.
Board
The Manager has authority
delegated to it from the
Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement
and other written policies.
The Board of Marlin
comprises independent
directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),
Carol Campbell, and Andy
Coupe; and non-independent
director Carmel Fisher.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.