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MLN – December 2019 monthly update

Operational Update15 December 2019MLNFinancials

1
A word from the Manager

Marlin’s gross return for the month was +3.5%, compared

with our global benchmark which gained 2.8%.

November was another good month for global equity

markets. The US-China trade negotiations continue to drag

on. Despite little progress during the month, the absence

of a further deterioration in negotiations seems to have

given markets hope that a deal can be reached. This trade

optimism, coupled with a slight pickup in business sentiment

saw the S&P index up 3.6%, reaching all-time highs. Europe

also saw signs of improved manufacturing and consumer

activity with markets rise 2.5%. The UK saw 3rd quarter

GDP and wage growth below expectations; however focus

remains on the upcoming elections in December. Despite

the weaker data, the UK market rose 2.2%.

Portfolio Company Developments

Alibaba (+13%) was the top performer in the portfolio. Early

in the month, Alibaba reported strong results with continued

strength in top-line growth on the back of a resilient Chinese

consumer, and flat margins despite ongoing investment into

growth segments such as cloud and video. Despite these

strong results, the share price reaction was muted. Most

of the outperformance in November followed the IPO and

secondary listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange towards

the end of the month, with shares up 10% post listing. Not

only does the new listing increase demand for Alibaba stock,

but also helps de-risk concerns that Chinese ADRs

2

could be

blacklisted by US pension funds or even delisted from US

exchanges in the event of an escalating trade war.

TJX (+6%) is benefitting as full-price retail struggles.

The company looks to buy closeout inventory from other

retailers and manufacturers and sell the heavily discounted

items to consumers through a ‘treasure-hunt’ experience.

Management are seeing a buyer’s market for off-price

inventory with a plethora of good inventory available –

including from some e-commerce retailers that have over-

ordered stock. This favourable environment is transitioning

into strong TJX same store sales growth in both the US and

Europe.

Tencent (+3%) also reported in November with mixed

results. Mobile gaming grew 25% as it moves past

the regulatory freeze on new game approvals. Social

advertising growth accelerated to 32% as it continues

to increase ad load on the WeChat app and fend off

increased competition for advertising dollars from short-

video players such as ByteDance. Cloud grew at an above-

market rate of 80%. However, this was offset by 7% decline

in PC gaming and a 28% decline in media advertising. In

addition to ongoing macro concerns, delays in approvals

for new video content, particularly costume drama, saw

sponsorship advertising revenue fall. Despite these

challenges total revenue grew 21% with operating profit

up 27% - highlighting the strength of Tencent’s diversified

business model and exposure to key secular trends such a

mobile gaming, digital payments and cloud.

Paypal (+4%) announced the US$4 billion acquisition

of Honey Science Corporation, the maker of a deal-

finding browser add-on and mobile application. Honey’s

tools help consumers find discounts during the online

checkout process and help merchants reduce shopping

cart abandonment and increase sales. When integrated

with PayPal and Venmo’s existing payment products it has

the potential to save PayPal users money by checking for

discount codes seamlessly while users are going through

the online checkout. We see the deal as a sensible step to

increase PayPal’s value proposition to both shoppers and

merchants. While we see the strategic merits of the deal,

the $4 billion price tag was steep and we will be watching

closely to see how management integrate and extract

value from the acquisition.

Dollar Tree (-17%) shares fell following their quarterly

earnings report. The company is attempting to turn around

performance at discount retailer Family Dollar. There

were positive signs with same store sales growing more

than 2% on the back of more customers visiting the store.

Unfortunately, this progress was outweighed by higher

than expected costs at both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar

stores. This is being driven by higher wage and freight

costs and caused the company to lower its earnings

outlook for the year. Despite the disappointing result, we

believe the company is on track to deliver sustained growth

in both its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar operations.

1

Share Price Discount to NAV (using NAV to four decimal places and including warrant price on a pro-rated basis).

2

There are approximately 300 Chinese companies that are traded in the US, either on exchanges or over the counter, either as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) or as shares.

Monthly Update

December 2019

MLN NAV

$

1.03

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.07

DISCOUNT

1

1.6

%

as at 30 November 2019

SHARE PRICE

$

1.00

2
Sector Split

as at 30 November 2019

Key Details

as at 30 November 2019

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.94

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

148m

MARKET

CAPITALISATION

$148m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

26

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

9

%

FINANCIALS

17

%


HEALTH CARE

20

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

Geographical Split

as at 30 November 2019

16

%

WEST EUROPE

72

%

NORTH AMERICA

8

%

INDUSTRIALS

11

%


ASIA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

19

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

Portfolio changes

We exited autoparts distributor, LKQ, during the quarter.

LKQ has been in our portfolio since 2014. Given high

‘alternative part’ penetration in the US and LKQ’s high

market share, organic growth was getting harder to come

by. The growth outlook was also impacted by a mix shift

towards the lower growth European market. We were less

comfortable with the European business model and the

company’s ability to improve margins in that market. Given

the recent spike in LKQ’s share price we saw the company as

fully valued and took the opportunity to exit the stock.

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

3
November’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms

Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

ALIBABA GROUP

+13

%

DESCARTES SYSTEMS

+11

%

ICON PLC

+11

%

DOLLAR TREE

+8

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 30 November 2019

ALPHABET

8

%

ALIBABA GROUP

6

%

FACEBOOK

6

%

PAYPAL

6

%

TJX COMPANIES

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.50

$

0.00

$

1.50

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

$

2.50

Nov

2019

Total Shareholder Return to 30 November 2019

Performance to 30 November 2019

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+7.1%+10.5%+26.5%+19.6%+14.9%

Adjusted NAV Return+3.0%+3.5%+24.2%+18.4%+11.9%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +3.5%+4.7%+27.5%+22.4%+15.7%

Benchmark Index^+2.8%+6.3%+15.3%+12.5%+12.6%

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

TYLER

TECHNOLOGIES

-17

%

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if

it elects to do so) to acquire up to 7.3m of its shares on

market in the year to 31 October 2020

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)

was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every four

Marlin shares held, (at record date 6 November 2019)

»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted down

for dividends declared during the period up to the

Exercise Date

»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in

September 2020


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell, and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.