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Kingfish – December 2019 Quarter Update Newsletter

Investor Presentation21 January 2020KFLFinancials

1
Notable Returns in the Quarter

Kingfish had a very strong quarter, with a gross performance

return of +12.5% and an adjusted net asset value (Adjusted NAV)

return of +11.0%, compared to the benchmark, which was up

5.2% for the quarter. Kingfish was up a staggering 38.9% gross

performance return for the calendar year, (Adjusted NAV was up

33%) compared to the New Zealand market, which was up 30.4%.

The outperformance noted above is a meaningful difference and

reflects our active management style: handpicking a small number

of quality companies to invest in for the long-term.

One of the key attributes that we use to differentiate quality

companies from the rest of the pack is the idea of a moat.

The difference a moat makes

A moat is an attribute of a business that makes it very hard to

compete with. Not losing your customers to competition is a very

good attribute to have!

A genuine moat is near impenetrable and ideally gets wider over

time which drives long-term winners. No moat, a partial moat or

the perception of a moat can drive long-term losers

The winners in the New Zealand share market in 2019 had wide

moats. The losers did not.

The winners

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s moat is based on over 50+ years of

research and development it has tucked away. That is extremely

difficult to replicate and was reflected in the release of the Vitera

during the year - its new Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) mask.

Customers seem to love it. This helped the company upgrade

their own earnings guidance three times in three months and

reminded us that this company is a under-promiser and over-

deliverer.

Despite an enormous amount of (often misplaced) concerns

thrown at a2 Milk by the market such as regulatory risk, CEO

selling shares, CEO change, lack of cost control and revenue

scares, the company still managed to outperform a very strong

NZ stock market in 2019. a2 Milk’s moat is based upon the very

strong brand it has built especially in China for its a2 Platinum

infant milk formula. It is also based upon the extremely passionate

and dynamic team of people that run and operate the company.

Despite the disappointment of the short tenure of the last CEO,

it is pleasing to see Geoff Babidge return to the driver’s seat.

Geoff was responsible for assembling and mentoring much

of the relatively small and passionate team that continues to

outmaneuver significantly larger companies. The recent AGM

allayed a lot of the market’s fears. Profit margins were re-upgraded

(following a downgrade at the 2019 result in August) due to price

SUMMERSET

GROUP

+34

%

FISHER & PAYKEL

+29

%

RYMAN

HEALTHCARE

+24

%

PORT OF

TAURANGA

+23

%

PUSHPAY

HOLDINGS

+20

%

rises and stringent control of cost of goods sold. Secondly, sales

growth of circa 30% for the 6 months ended December 2019 was

better than analysts had feared.

When you have been developing high-quality retirement villages

successfully for as long as Ryman and Summerset have, you

are going to develop a huge amount of in-house expertise.

The expertise to secure a large parcel of bare land in a high-

quality location and shepherd it through the difficult process of

consenting and turn out consistently high-quality apartments

and integrated care facilities has created wide moats around

these companies. And then to have the ability to replicate that

process dozens of times in both NZ and Australia means the moats

continue to widen.

Last month Ryman hosted an investor day in Melbourne which we

attended. Awareness of Ryman in Melbourne is strengthening,

resulting in strong demand for its product. The company is well

positioned versus its Australian counterparts that don’t cater to the

increasing demand for a continuum of care model - independent

retirement living all the way through to acute aged care and

dementia care.

Mainfreight’s moat is more obscure than most but is one of the

most powerful of all. It is largely based on Mainfreight’s culture

and Mainfreight’s people. And it was great to see Don Braid who

lives, breathes and drives the highly successful culture awarded the

executive of the decade by Deloitte!

The rest of the pack

Sky TV used to have a (near) monopoly in satellite delivery of

Pay TV and had the most Pay TV subscribers in NZ. But we were

reminded in 2019 that high market share is not necessarily a moat.

Sky TV’s technology is outdated, it is losing subscribers, it lost the

cricket rights and couldn’t show the Rugby World Cup. All of these

contributed to another horror year.

Metro Performance Glass has no moat. Its earnings were

downgraded another 20-30% this year as it continues to face

competition from all angles and it lost key management.

Gentrack has elements of a moat via its high market share and

strong software. But we were reminded that you are only as strong

as your customers, especially when you have a fairly concentrated

Quarter Update Newsletter

30 September 2019 – 31 December 2019

NAV

$

1.65

SHARE PRICE

$

1.60

as at 31 December 2019

DISCOUNT

1

3.2

%

1

Share price discount/(premium) to NAV (using NAV to four decimal places)

The highest market share in corporatised dentists in Australasia
was not enough of a moat for Abano. Despite being taken over

during the year, the stock still underperformed the market by

almost 40% in 2019.

Our relentless focus on owning companies with enduring

competitive advantages or wide moats assisted us in generating

a little over 800 basis points

1

of additional gross return in the 2019

calendar year.

2

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from

an authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+13.4%+16.7%+13.2%

Adjusted NAV Return+11.0%+18.8%+14.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +12.5%+22.2%+17.6%

S&P/NZX50G Index+5.2%+18.7%+15.6%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross

performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is

as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for

capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the

money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to

non-GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of

the policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED COMPANIES

% Holding

Auckland Int Airport4.5%

Delegat Group3.4%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare13.5%

Freightways5.1%

Infratil9.3%

Mainfreight13.3%

Meridian Energy3.4%

Port of Tauranga4.3%

Pushpay Holdings1.7%

Ryman Healthcare7.0%

Summerset9.3%

The A2 Milk Company15.4%

Vista Group International5.2%

Equity Total95.4%

New Zealand dollar cash4.6%

TOTAL100.0%

Portfolio Holdings Summary

as at 31 December 2019

Company News

Dividend Paid 19 December 2019

A dividend of 3.09 cents per share was paid to Kingfish

shareholders on 19 December 2019 under the quarterly

distribution policy. Interest in Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment

plan (DRP) remains high with 44% of shareholders participating in

the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please

contact our share registrar, Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

Performance

as at 31 December 2019

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

20 January 2020

customer base. The company was beleaguered by Brexit and its

small, unprofitable UK electricity customers are under pressure.

This saw analysts downgrade earnings by more than 50% during

the year.

Comvita is the biggest honey producer in NZ and has a very

strong brand. But those “moatish” elements are eroded by the

reliance on horticulture which is the definition of relying on factors

outside your control! The third poor honey harvest in a row and

the departure of the CCO and CEO contributed to the company

reporting a large and unexpected loss for the fiscal year.

Fonterra is one of the largest exporters of milk products globally.

But scale alone is not a moat and the company reported a record

annual loss last year.

1

Calendar year gross performance return of +38.9% verses the Kingfish benchmark return of +30.4%

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.