Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update22 January 2020MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 December 2019

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

PRUDENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

IN LEAD-UP TO Q3

FOCUS ON CUSTOMER VALUE

AND LOYALTY LIFTS YIELDS

GEOTHERMAL GENERATION DOWN DUE TO

TWO-YEARLY MAINTENANCE OUTAGES

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

PORTFOLIO

MANAGEMENT

COMMERCIAL

YIELDS

INCREASE

GEOTHERMAL

OUTAGES

COMPLETED

>> COMMENTARY

PORTFOLIO POSITION STRONG AS APPROACHING LOW INFLOW QUARTER COINCIDES WITH TRANSMISSION, THERMAL FUEL OUTAGES

Mercury maintained a prudentapproach to risk management in Q2-FY2020, decreasing hydro generation by 74GWhcompared to the same

quarter last year resulting in a strong hydro storage position in the approach to the third quarter; historically the lowest inflow quarter for the

Waikato catchment. Forecast low inflows in Q3-FY2020 were also expected to coincide with an increased likelihood of high spot prices, indicated

by a $158/MWh Otahuhu futures price for Q3-FY2020 as at 1 October 2019, impacted by planned transmission and thermal fuel supplyoutages.

Lower hydro generation during the quarter lifted hydro storage in Lake Taupo to 85GWh above average

1

by the end of the quarter. Low spill and

high efficiency offset below-average inflows leading to Mercury's full-year hydro generation forecast being materially unchangedat 4,070GWh.

Mercury's geothermal generation also decreased by 84GWh compared to Q2-FY2019 due to two-yearly maintenance outages at Nga Awa Purua,

Kawerau and Ngatamariki stations.

WHOLESALE MARKET PRICES DAMPENED BY HIGH SOUTH ISLAND HYDRO INFLOWS BUT REMAIN HISTORICALLY HIGH

Spot prices in the most recent quarter started strongly but declined following very high South Island hydro inflows (at the 99

th

percentile

2

or

3,308GWh above average

2

). The average spot price for the quarter decreased from $206/MWh at Otahuhu and $175/MWh at Benmore in the

prior comparable period, when dry hydrological conditions and thermal fuel supply outages led to record prices, to $102/MWh and $87/MWh

respectively but remained elevated at the 95

th

percentile

1

.

High South Island inflows also coincided with the low demand holiday period leading to national hydro storage increasing across the quarter from

354GWh below average to 1,060GWh above average

2

. This surfeit of hydro storage has lowered spot price expectations for FY2020 with futures

prices easing from $139/MWh to $123/MWh at Otahuhu and from $121/MWh to $96/MWh at Benmore across the quarter.

COMMERCIAL YIELDS LIFT THROUGH FOCUS ON CUSTOMER VALUE ANDRE-ALIGNMENT WITH WHOLESALE MARKET PRICES

The Commercial & Industrial average sales yield (from bothphysical and financial sales) increased by 6.7% from $74/MWh to $79/MWh due to the

impact of contract renewals at current wholesale market levels. Mercury's focuson loyalty and higher-value customers resulted in the average yield

received for Mass Market sales increasing by 2.3% from $127/MWh in Q2-FY2019 to $129/MWh in the current quarter.

Customer numbers were 356,000 at the end of Q2-FY2020, a net decrease of 5,000 over the quarter and of 25,000 from the end of Q2-FY2019.

This includes a reduction of around 8,000 connections from Mercury's exit of lower-yielding Farm Source contracts as part of itsportfolio

management strategy.

IRRIGATION LOAD UP AS AGRICULTURAL REGIONS REMAIN DRY; INDUSTRIAL LOAD DECLINE CONTINUES

Temperature adjusted demand increased by 1.7% (2.1% on an unadjusted basis) primarily due to increased irrigation demand (+1.2%)as heavy

South Island rainfall was limited to hydro catchment regions. The urban (+0.5%), rural (+0.1%) and dairy (+0.2%) sectors also made positive

contributions to total demand. Industrial demand remains subdued, contributing -0.3% of the change in total demand as large consumers

responded to high spot prices; demonstrated by Tiwai holding their consumption below peak load at an average 593MW across thequarter.

1

For quarters ended 31 December since 1999

2

For quarters ended 31 December since 1927

Statistics on page 2 have been modified to providemore information on financial derivatives. The 2-year operating statistics history in the new format

is available on the Mercury website. (www.mercury.co.nz/investors/results-reports/operating-information)

356381
314338

4243

4748

VWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)

1,0021,0672,2412,319

2

6637481,5551,703

3

339319686616

4955110119

4

1,0501,1222,3512,438

5

8337691,7031,716

313295636586

6

5204741,0671,130

181187379412

1,5241,6823,4283,805

9281,0022,1422,448

7

5966801,2861,357

5

391381690665

6

391381690665

8

1.031.031.031.03

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

Excludes spot customer purchases

5

Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)

6

7

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

8

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

ELECTRICITY SALES

North Island Customers

Commercial & Industrial

Network Losses

74.74

126.54

79.86

Physical112.65111.06

Mass Market129.41

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 December 2019

Three months ended

31 December 2018

($/MWh)

Dual Fuel Customers

($/MWh)

South Island Customers

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000s ICPs)

109.48213.04

79.2383.97

201.4197.96

78.55

Other Sell CfDs

99.30202.22

Physical Purchases

Financial

Spot Settlement of CfDs

End User CfDs73.71

79.64

Spot Customer Purchases

90.36

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Physical

101.9584.31 Buy CfDs

93.46190.67

84.31101.95Financial

109.96215.27

205.32103.50

Hydro

($/MWh)($/MWh)

116.64115.11

Six months ended

31 December 2019

Six months ended

31 December 2018

120.39148.14

80.7279.84

78.7173.86

129.08126.82

88.4882.75

114.41138.76

119.62140.73

81.9182.94

109.06136.77

110.53137.85

Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases. To illustrate, for the three months ended 31 December 2019 LWAP is

calculated as {($109.48 x 1,050GWh + $97.96 x 833GWh) / (1,050GWh + 833GWh)} and GWAP is calculated as {($103.50 x 1,524GWh + $93.97 x 391GWh) /

(1,524GWh + 391GWh)}

103.67142.50

105.74135.20

83.0690.55

83.0690.55

Spot Settlement of CfDs

PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP

189.4293.97

Geothermal (consolidated)

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December 2019 and 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 December 2018 and of 302

GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2019 and 302 GWh for the 6 months ended 31 December 2018

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

Statistics have beenmodified to separate physical and financial sales and generation and disclose Buy and Sell CfD prices and volumes.

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

16%

36%

20%

16%

4%

8%

Financial Year Q2 2020

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

18%

31%

22%

17%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q2 2019

13%

87%

Financial Year Q2 2020

MERCURY

OTHER

14%

86%

Financial Year Q2 2019

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2019 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2020 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2019FY2020

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$94.50

$84.25

$83.25

$113.71

$98.54

$94.79

$139.10

$111.93

$102.79

$122.57

$110.25

$95.68

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

FY20FY21FY22

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018AS AT 30 JUNE 2019AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2019AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2019

$87.44

$80.36

$79.05

$91.00

$86.19

$85.16

$121.22

$98.96

$91.80

$95.96

$97.29

$85.11

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

FY20FY21FY22

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2018AS AT 30 JUNE 2019AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2019AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2019

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEAR

Q1Q2Q3Q4

202012.316.7--

201912.116.320.214.1

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

201611.416.020.615.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

8,550

8,609

8,257

8,541

8,270

8,481

1,252

1,265

1,264

1,263

1,316

1,310

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2 2018Q2 2019Q2 2020

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)

ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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