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MLN – February 2020 monthly update

Operational Update16 February 2020MLNFinancials

1
A word from the Manager

Marlin’s gross performance return was +3.4% for the

month, and the adjusted NAV return was also +3.4%

2

. This

compared with our global benchmark which gained 0.4%.

The new year started as the prior year finished, with

markets continuing their upwards march for the first half

of the month, despite the escalating US-Iran conflict (hard

to believe that was only a few weeks ago). However, the

coronavirus outbreak knocked global markets in the second

half with the MSCI China Index dropping 9% to end the

month down 5%. This negatively affected the performance of

our two Chinese holdings Alibaba and Tencent.

The S&P Index was flat for the month after being up 3% at

one point. European markets were down 1.0% with UK down

3.2%. The USD rallied 4% versus the NZD, which provided an

offsetting tailwind to our portfolio.

On the economic front, the Fed came out and held rates

during the month. Economic data was broadly positive and

supportive of an improvement in economic activity, although

the coronavirus will obviously create a headwind here.

Earnings season is now in full swing with eight of our

companies reporting in January. Results have generally been

positive, although names such as Facebook or Edwards

Lifesciences sold off post earnings despite good results, as

market expectations had gotten ahead of themselves.

Portfolio Company Developments

Amazon (+9%) finished the month well. The company

rallied 8% after reporting earnings on the 31st January with

revenue growth strong across the cloud computing business,

e-commerce and advertising. Profitability exceeded market

expectations. Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s

cloud business grew 34% in the most recent quarter. It is

now a US$35 billion revenue business in its own right. The

company’s recent shift to one day shipping continues to

pay dividends with healthy growth in e-commerce and the

company adding more Prime subscribers than any previous

quarter, taking total members past 150 million.

Signature Bank (+4%) is a small cap US bank we have

invested in for a number of years. The bank reported its full

year 2019 results in January, which showed strong deposit

and loan growth as a result of significant new team hiring

last year. Signature Bank’s growth model is based on its

ability to hire experienced banking teams from larger banks

(like Wells Fargo who are currently struggling to retain

staff), who then bring their clients’ deposit and loan books

with them. By targeting experienced bankers with large

commercial customers, they are able to bring across large

client books with a small number of staff, leading to an

industry leading efficiency ratio. This model has allowed it

to grow rapidly, with Signature Bank recently hitting $50bn

in assets - having grown organically from just $50m in

assets 19 years ago. We are optimistic about the near-term

outlook for Signature Bank, with recent Fed interest rate

cuts helping reduce its funding costs, which should drive

an acceleration in the bank’s earnings growth over the next

two years.

Dollar Tree (-7%) share price drifted lower throughout

the month following its earnings release in December. The

company is attempting to turnaround the performance of

their Family Dollar banner. Management has made good

progress growing sales by revamping stores, but profit

margins have been under pressure as the company shifts

away from discretionary items to selling more everyday

items such as food. Despite the disappointing share price

performance, we remain positive on the steps Dollar Tree

management are taking to realign the Family Dollar banner

for sustained growth.

Hexel, a leading manufacturer of carbon-fibre components

for aircraft, announced a merger with another aerospace

supplier, Woodward Inc – creating one of the worlds’

biggest aerospace and defence suppliers. The transaction

was billed as a merger of equals, with Hexcel shareholders

owning 45% of the new entity. The deal is awaiting

regulatory and shareholder approvals. We are currently

updating our investment thesis to reflect the combined

business.

1

Share Price (Premium) / Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).

2

During the month of January a tax benefit was booked which offset the operating expenses for the month.

Monthly Update

February 2020

MLN NAV

$

1.04

WARRANT PRICE

$

0.12

(PREMIUM)/

DISCOUNT

1

(6.0

%

)

as at 31 January 2020

SHARE PRICE

$

1.07

2
Sector Split

as at 31 January 2020

Key Details

as at 31 January 2020

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

25-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management

Limited

MANAGEMENT

FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE

FEE HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$0.92

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

149m

MARKET

CAPITALISATION

$160m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20%

of gross asset value)

24

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

10

%

FINANCIALS

21

%


HEALTH CARE

22

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

Geographical Split

as at 31 January 2020

16

%

WEST EUROPE

72

%

NORTH AMERICA

4

%

INDUSTRIALS

12

%


ASIA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

15

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

Portfolio changes

We exited logistics company UPS during the month.

We have owned UPS since 2014 as we saw a wide moat

business (only 1-2 major US competitors and significant

scale benefits), with some pricing power and above GDP

growth. At the time we invested, we presumed package

growth from e-commerce to be a tailwind for UPS. By 2017

e-commerce had actually turned into an earnings headwind

as the company had to ramp investment to keep pace with

the package growth, pressuring profitability. US domestic

margins have recently picked up and the share price has

followed over the last six months. No doubt operational

improvements have contributed, but more importantly,

we think UPS is benefitting from Amazon’s shift to one day

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

shipping, causing a short-term increase in higher margin next

day air revenue. UPS faces a number of structural headwinds

and we believe its growth outlook is challenged; we have

therefore taken this opportunity to exit the stock.

3
January’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms

Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.

AMAZON

+9

%

TYLER TECHNOLOGIES

+8

%

ALPHABET

+7

%

DOLLAR TREE

+7

%

5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 31 January 2020

ALPHABET

9

%

ALIBABA GROUP

6

%

FACEBOOK

6

%

PAYPAL HOLDINGS

6

%

MASTERCARD

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

Nov

2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.50

$

0.00

$

1.50

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

$

2.50

Nov

2019

Total Shareholder Return to 31 January 2020

Performance to 31 January 2020

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+5.5%+18.0%+42.5%+22.6%+16.3%

Adjusted NAV Return+3.4%+5.4%+25.8%+18.7%+11.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +3.4%+6.6%+29.2%+22.6%+15.5%

Benchmark Index^+0.4%+3.8%+17.4%+11.8%+11.4%

^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

DESCARTES SYSTEMS

-7

%

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy

or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an

authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio

companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

About

Marlin Global

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 25 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia)

through a single, professionally

managed investment. The aim

of Marlin is to offer investors

competitive returns through capital

growth and dividends.

Capital Management Strategies

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in

August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted

to be paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends

received, interest income, investment gains

and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased

capital rather than a regular income stream have

the opportunity to participate in the company’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on

1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to

New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not

been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if

it elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as

treasury stock

» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be

re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)

was announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every four

Marlin shares held

»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted down

for dividends declared during the period up to the

Exercise Date

»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in

September 2020


Management

Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris

Waters and Harry Smith (Senior

Investment Analysts) have prime

responsibility for managing

the Marlin portfolio. Together

they have significant combined

experience and are very capable

of researching and investing in

the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is

based in Takapuna, Auckland.


Board

The Manager has authority

delegated to it from the

Board to invest according to

the Management Agreement

and other written policies.

The Board of Marlin

comprises independent

directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),

Carol Campbell, and Andy

Coupe; and non-independent

director Carmel Fisher.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.