MLN – February 2020 monthly update
1
A word from the Manager
Marlin’s gross performance return was +3.4% for the
month, and the adjusted NAV return was also +3.4%
2
. This
compared with our global benchmark which gained 0.4%.
The new year started as the prior year finished, with
markets continuing their upwards march for the first half
of the month, despite the escalating US-Iran conflict (hard
to believe that was only a few weeks ago). However, the
coronavirus outbreak knocked global markets in the second
half with the MSCI China Index dropping 9% to end the
month down 5%. This negatively affected the performance of
our two Chinese holdings Alibaba and Tencent.
The S&P Index was flat for the month after being up 3% at
one point. European markets were down 1.0% with UK down
3.2%. The USD rallied 4% versus the NZD, which provided an
offsetting tailwind to our portfolio.
On the economic front, the Fed came out and held rates
during the month. Economic data was broadly positive and
supportive of an improvement in economic activity, although
the coronavirus will obviously create a headwind here.
Earnings season is now in full swing with eight of our
companies reporting in January. Results have generally been
positive, although names such as Facebook or Edwards
Lifesciences sold off post earnings despite good results, as
market expectations had gotten ahead of themselves.
Portfolio Company Developments
Amazon (+9%) finished the month well. The company
rallied 8% after reporting earnings on the 31st January with
revenue growth strong across the cloud computing business,
e-commerce and advertising. Profitability exceeded market
expectations. Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s
cloud business grew 34% in the most recent quarter. It is
now a US$35 billion revenue business in its own right. The
company’s recent shift to one day shipping continues to
pay dividends with healthy growth in e-commerce and the
company adding more Prime subscribers than any previous
quarter, taking total members past 150 million.
Signature Bank (+4%) is a small cap US bank we have
invested in for a number of years. The bank reported its full
year 2019 results in January, which showed strong deposit
and loan growth as a result of significant new team hiring
last year. Signature Bank’s growth model is based on its
ability to hire experienced banking teams from larger banks
(like Wells Fargo who are currently struggling to retain
staff), who then bring their clients’ deposit and loan books
with them. By targeting experienced bankers with large
commercial customers, they are able to bring across large
client books with a small number of staff, leading to an
industry leading efficiency ratio. This model has allowed it
to grow rapidly, with Signature Bank recently hitting $50bn
in assets - having grown organically from just $50m in
assets 19 years ago. We are optimistic about the near-term
outlook for Signature Bank, with recent Fed interest rate
cuts helping reduce its funding costs, which should drive
an acceleration in the bank’s earnings growth over the next
two years.
Dollar Tree (-7%) share price drifted lower throughout
the month following its earnings release in December. The
company is attempting to turnaround the performance of
their Family Dollar banner. Management has made good
progress growing sales by revamping stores, but profit
margins have been under pressure as the company shifts
away from discretionary items to selling more everyday
items such as food. Despite the disappointing share price
performance, we remain positive on the steps Dollar Tree
management are taking to realign the Family Dollar banner
for sustained growth.
Hexel, a leading manufacturer of carbon-fibre components
for aircraft, announced a merger with another aerospace
supplier, Woodward Inc – creating one of the worlds’
biggest aerospace and defence suppliers. The transaction
was billed as a merger of equals, with Hexcel shareholders
owning 45% of the new entity. The deal is awaiting
regulatory and shareholder approvals. We are currently
updating our investment thesis to reflect the combined
business.
1
Share Price (Premium) / Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
2
During the month of January a tax benefit was booked which offset the operating expenses for the month.
Monthly Update
February 2020
MLN NAV
$
1.04
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.12
(PREMIUM)/
DISCOUNT
1
(6.0
%
)
as at 31 January 2020
SHARE PRICE
$
1.07
2
Sector Split
as at 31 January 2020
Key Details
as at 31 January 2020
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
25-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management
Limited
MANAGEMENT
FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE
FEE HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.92
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
149m
MARKET
CAPITALISATION
$160m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20%
of gross asset value)
24
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
10
%
FINANCIALS
21
%
HEALTH CARE
22
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Geographical Split
as at 31 January 2020
16
%
WEST EUROPE
72
%
NORTH AMERICA
4
%
INDUSTRIALS
12
%
ASIA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
15
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
Portfolio changes
We exited logistics company UPS during the month.
We have owned UPS since 2014 as we saw a wide moat
business (only 1-2 major US competitors and significant
scale benefits), with some pricing power and above GDP
growth. At the time we invested, we presumed package
growth from e-commerce to be a tailwind for UPS. By 2017
e-commerce had actually turned into an earnings headwind
as the company had to ramp investment to keep pace with
the package growth, pressuring profitability. US domestic
margins have recently picked up and the share price has
followed over the last six months. No doubt operational
improvements have contributed, but more importantly,
we think UPS is benefitting from Amazon’s shift to one day
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
shipping, causing a short-term increase in higher margin next
day air revenue. UPS faces a number of structural headwinds
and we believe its growth outlook is challenged; we have
therefore taken this opportunity to exit the stock.
3
January’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.
AMAZON
+9
%
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES
+8
%
ALPHABET
+7
%
DOLLAR TREE
+7
%
5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 31 January 2020
ALPHABET
9
%
ALIBABA GROUP
6
%
FACEBOOK
6
%
PAYPAL HOLDINGS
6
%
MASTERCARD
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.50
$
0.00
$
1.50
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
$
2.50
Nov
2019
Total Shareholder Return to 31 January 2020
Performance to 31 January 2020
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+5.5%+18.0%+42.5%+22.6%+16.3%
Adjusted NAV Return+3.4%+5.4%+25.8%+18.7%+11.6%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +3.4%+6.6%+29.2%+22.6%+15.5%
Benchmark Index^+0.4%+3.8%+17.4%+11.8%+11.4%
^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
DESCARTES SYSTEMS
-7
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy
or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an
authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio
companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
About
Marlin Global
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 25 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia)
through a single, professionally
managed investment. The aim
of Marlin is to offer investors
competitive returns through capital
growth and dividends.
Capital Management Strategies
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in
August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted
to be paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends
received, interest income, investment gains
and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased
capital rather than a regular income stream have
the opportunity to participate in the company’s
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%
discount to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on
1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to
New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not
been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if
it elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as
treasury stock
» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be
re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)
was announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted down
for dividends declared during the period up to the
Exercise Date
»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in
September 2020
Management
Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters and Harry Smith (Senior
Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together
they have significant combined
experience and are very capable
of researching and investing in
the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is
based in Takapuna, Auckland.
Board
The Manager has authority
delegated to it from the
Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement
and other written policies.
The Board of Marlin
comprises independent
directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),
Carol Campbell, and Andy
Coupe; and non-independent
director Carmel Fisher.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.