MLN – March 2020 monthly update
1
A word from the Manager
Marlin Global’s gross performance for the month was down
-3.4%, while the adjusted NAV was down -2.8%. This compared
with our global benchmark, which was down -6.4%.
After reaching record highs on February 19th, US equity
markets led global stock exchanges sharply lower during the
last seven days of the month. In the last week of February, the
S&P 500 fell 11%, Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 11% and the
German DAX declined 12%. Asia performed better with MSCI
China index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 4%.
Global markets had been looking through the short-term
impact of a China slowdown and disruption to supply chains
from Coronavirus at the start of the month. This shifted with
growing concern about a potential global slowdown as the
spread of Coronavirus widened to other countries, most
notably Italy and South Korea.
The portfolio outperformed our benchmark thanks to strong
performance by some of the defensive stocks like Fresenius
Medical Care, Dollar General, TJX Companies Inc and
outperformance by Alibaba and Tencent as investors see their
online business models as more immune to fallout.
Portfolio Company Developments
One of our more defensive holdings, off-price retailer, TJX
Companies (+2%) updated the market with a healthy earnings
report. The company purchases branded inventory at a
discount from full-price retailers and manufacturers who have
excess product and difficulty selling it. The company passes
savings through to the customer. Combined with a quick
stock turnover, this creates a treasure hunt experience. In the
earnings update, TJX noted particularly strong performance
in Europe, thanks in part to economic weakness in the region.
This environment suits TJX unique merchandising model as
there is more inventory available to buy. Secondly, it provides
the opportunity for TJX to relocate stores or open new ones
in vacated premises. Lastly, the company is able to capture
market share as their value proposition becomes more
appealing to consumers.
Alibaba (+1%) reported a good set of results during the
month with revenue and profits both growing over 30%.
However, the focus of investors was largely on the impact
of Coronavirus, which is temporarily impacting the core
ecommerce business as the shutdown causes issues with the
supply and delivery of goods. On the other hand, Alibaba
believes the impact of the virus could drive incremental
demand longer term. As people in China are eating and
working more from home, the online-grocery delivery
and remote working services have actually seen growth
accelerate, and the company expects many of these
customers will continue to use these services even once
things return to normal. Our other Chinese holding, Tencent
(+3.5%), was a strong performer in February. The company
derives the majority of its revenue from video games and
therefore should benefit with people spending more time at
home.
Our two payments companies, Mastercard (-8%) and PayPal
(-5%), updated the market on the impact Coronavirus is
having on their operations. While Mastercard’s domestic
payment volumes are proving resilient to Coronavirus (they
don’t currently operate in China), it is impacting cross-border
travel payment volumes and as a result the company reduced
its revenue growth guidance for the current quarter to 9-10%
(a 2-3% reduction). PayPal also reduced its revenue guidance
due to Coronavirus, however only by 1% due to stronger than
expected performance in its domestic ecommerce business.
The uncertainty around the future progression of Coronavirus
makes it difficult to assess how long payment volumes will
remain depressed, but despite the challenging backdrop
both businesses continue to grow strongly and we remain
just as positive about their long-term growth potential.
In mid-February Adidas (-12%) announced, along with peers
Nike and Puma, store closures in China due to Coronavirus.
Also noting a significant reduction in customer traffic to
remaining stores. Even though China is a strategic growth
priority for the company, the share price held up well with
the market focusing on the long-term opportunity. However,
as news broke of the Coronavirus spread into Europe, the
Adidas share price came under pressure. At 30%, Western
Europe represents Adidas’s largest region by sales. It was
widely expected the company would benefit from the
upcoming football tournament, Euro 2020, scheduled
for June with games in Italy as well as other countries.
1
Share Price (Premium) / Discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
Monthly Update
March 2020
MLN NAV
$
1.01
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.09
DISCOUNT
1
0.5
%
as at 29 February 2020
SHARE PRICE
$
0.98
2
Sector Split
as at 29 February 2020
Key Details
as at 29 February 2020
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
25-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management
Limited
MANAGEMENT
FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE
FEE HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.92
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
149m
MARKET
CAPITALISATION
$146m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20%
of gross asset value)
25
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
11
%
FINANCIALS
22
%
HEALTH CARE
23
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Geographical Split
as at 29 February 2020
16
%
WEST EUROPE
72
%
NORTH AMERICA
4
%
INDUSTRIALS
12
%
ASIA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
15
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
However, as sporting events are cancelled or played behind
closed doors, expectations for Adidas have changed from
sales benefit to potentially having excess inventory. This may
pressure profit margins over the next couple of quarters.
Long-term we remain positive on the outlook for Adidas. The
company (along with Nike) have a significant scale advantage
over competitors and should benefit from the ongoing trend
of casualisation in attire.
After a year of strong market performance and relative calm,
the Coronavirus outbreak has driven a significant spike in
market volatility. This is no doubt unsettling for investors
and we are monitoring the situation and the impact on our
portfolio companies closely. High quality businesses like those
in the Marlin portfolio are more resilient than most in difficult
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
economic times and we believe our portfolio companies
remain well positioned to grow strongly over the long-term.
While the ongoing impact of Coronavirus remains to be seen,
we continue to hunt for new investments should market panic
present attractive opportunities.
3
February’s Biggest Movers in local currency terms
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.
HEXCEL CORP
-13
%
ADIDAS AG
-12
%
SIGNATURE BANK
-12
%
ESSILOR LUXOTTICA
-12
%
5 Largest Portfolio Positions as at 29 February 2020
ALPHABET
9
%
FACEBOOK
7
%
ALIBABA GROUP
6
%
PAYPAL HOLDINGS
6
%
TJX COMPANIES
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.50
$
0.00
$
1.50
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
$
2.50
Nov
2019
Total Shareholder Return to 29 February 2020
Performance to 29 February 2020
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(8.8%)+0.5%+27.9%+19.4%+13.6%
Adjusted NAV Return(2.8%)(0.6%)+16.6%+16.4%+10.8%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (3.4%)(0.5%)+18.9%+19.9%+14.3%
Benchmark Index^(6.4%)(5.4%)+5.4%+8.2%+9.5%
^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-
GAAP measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
ABBOTT LABRATORIES
-8
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by
necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy
or completeness. The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an
authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio
companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
About
Marlin Global
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 25 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia)
through a single, professionally
managed investment. The aim
of Marlin is to offer investors
competitive returns through capital
growth and dividends.
Capital Management Strategies
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in
August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted
to be paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends
received, interest income, investment gains
and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased
capital rather than a regular income stream have
the opportunity to participate in the company’s
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%
discount to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on
1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to
New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not
been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if
it elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as
treasury stock
» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be
re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)
was announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every
four Marlin shares held
»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted down
for dividends declared during the period up to the
Exercise Date
»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in
September 2020
Management
Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters and Harry Smith (Senior
Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together
they have significant combined
experience and are very capable
of researching and investing in
the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is
based in Takapuna, Auckland.
Board
The Manager has authority
delegated to it from the
Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement
and other written policies.
The Board of Marlin
comprises independent
directors Alistair Ryan (Chair),
Carol Campbell, and Andy
Coupe; and non-independent
director Carmel Fisher.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.