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KFL – June 2020 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update19 July 2020KFLFinancials

1
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING THE

PORTFOLIO DURING THE QUARTER

Solid returns through a crisis thanks to

active management

Kingfish gained +23.4% (gross performance) for the quarter, and the

Adjusted NAV was up +21.2% for the quarter. The S&P/NZX50G

benchmark index gained +16.9% for the same period.

Our tried and tested investment process,

coupled with some enhancements, stood

up well during COVID-19

At face value the local stock market appears to be defying the effects

of COVID-19. But on closer inspection the solid performance of the

benchmark S&P/NZX50G index has been driven by only a handful of

large companies, especially Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and a2 Milk.

Over the twelve months to 30 June 2020 they have delivered all of the

benchmark’s returns and then some. This is extraordinary and masks the

inferior performance of a lot of other companies. What this tells us is how

important active management is. It is always critical to handpick a small

number of high-quality companies... but especially so now.

Sticking to and enhancing a successful process proved vital

during the crisis

We continue to think about the same four broad “buckets” within our

portfolio:

»Bucket 1. companies that should trade well through the COVID-19

crisis (“beneficiaries”)

»Bucket 2. companies that have more defensive earnings streams

(“defensives”)

»Bucket 3. companies that have more economically sensitive

earnings streams (“economically sensitive”)

»Bucket 4. companies that are in the eye of the storm (“eye of the

storm”)

We owned less of buckets 3 and 4 and more of buckets1and 2 into

the teeth of the crisis. For instance, we maintained a small position in

Auckland Airport right until the share price fully captured all the obvious

risks. We had cut our weighting in Summerset in late January and we ran

our very large positions in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and a2 Milk right

into the trough of the crisis on 23 March. We then pivoted by trimming

some of our positions in buckets 1 and 2 and buying positions in buckets

3 and 4. We trimmed Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Meridian and some

a2 Milk near the apex of the crisis and switched that into Auckland

Airport and Vista, especially via their equity issuance. We were also

adding to our heavily oversold positions in Summerset and Mainfreight.

Starting March 23rd, global stock markets staged their fastest 30%

bounce... ever. And in that environment we saw almost the mirror image

of the March carnage.

In the last three weeks to 30 June, we have seen markets pause for breath

as COVID-19 and the economic fall-out remains a key risk. And we

have seen another almost mirror image. We have reduced our holdings

in some “eye of the storm” companies and increased our weightings in

some of the “beneficiaries”.

PUSHPAY

HOLDINGS LTD

+15 9

%

DELEGAT GROUP

LTD

+58

%

AUCKLAND INTL

AIRPORT LTD

+32

%

VISTA GROUP

INTERNATIONAL

+ 31

%

FREIGHTWAYS

LTD

+ 31

%

The combination of our existing tried and true process, plus the

enhancements during the crisis allowed us to outperform the S&P/

NZX50G in the bull market prior to COVID-19, during the worst of the

market fall in March, in the sharp rebound until June 8th and then again

in the current environment until June 30th.

1

Share price discount to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

1 April 2020 – 30 June 2020

KFL NAV

$

1.6 5

$

0.0 7

$

1.6 2

Share Price

Warrant PriceDISCOUNT

1

1. 0

%


as at 30 June 2020

Bucket 1 – Beneficiaries: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, a2

Milk, Pushpay, Delegat

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Pushpay have seen their customers

embrace their products like never before as a result of COVID-19. This is

very powerful and has structurally increased the value of the companies

as higher levels of sales are achieved earlier and their products may

ultimately be used by a larger number of people.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s nasal high flow therapy is proving a more

effective treatment for COVID-19 patients versus traditional invasive

alternatives such as intubation (an ‘endotracheal tube’ physically inserted

down the throat and into the airways). Longer-term, this experience could

prove a powerful proof point for practitioners that F&P’s products should

be used for treatment of far more respiratory patients than before.

Pushpay has experienced a strong acceleration in use of its products.

Our recent church calls confirmed that digital giving has remained at

elevated levels and is not expected to revert when congregants can

physically return to church.

Bucket 2 – Defensives: Meridian, Infratil

Infratil updated the market on its portfolio businesses, categorising them

similarly to our “buckets”. Its data centre business CDC has continued

to see strong demand and announced it will be establishing sites in

New Zealand. In June, Infratil raised $300 million in new equity to

accelerate investment in several of its growth businesses that are seeing

opportunities for attractive returns, such as CDC, and we participated.

+60%

+40%

+20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

7

(21)

(50)

13

12

33

23

53

36

(18)

(8)

(2)(2)

(36)

(4)

(16)

Depths of the crisis:

1-31 March

Bucket 1: beneficiaries

Bucket 2: defensives

Bucket 3: economically

sensitive

Bucket 4: eye of the storm

Market recovery:

31 March to 8 June

Current environment:

8-30 June

Overall:

1 March to 30 June

Performance of “buckets” during COVID crisis

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front
page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and

it is by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed

to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its

accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment

advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial

advice from an authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the

extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or

its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results

may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+28.5%+19.3%+13.9%

Adjusted NAV Return+21.2%+16.8%+15.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +23.4%+19.9%+18.7%

S&P/NZX50G Index+16.9%+14.6%+14.9%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross

performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is

as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return to an investor who reinvests their dividends, and if in the

money, exercises their warrants at warrant maturity date for additional shares.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-

GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the

policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED COMPANIES

% Holding

Auckland Int Airport6.5%

Delegat Group3.8%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare18.0%

Freightways3.7%

Infratil11.3%

Mainfreight14.7%

Meridian Energy2.3%

Port of Tauranga3.7%

Pushpay Holdings2.4%

Ryman Healthcare5.9%

Summerset7.3%

The A2 Milk Company14.6%

Vista Group International3.5%

Equity Total97.7%

New Zealand dollar cash2.3%

TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY

as at 30 June 2020

COMPANY NEWS

Dividend Paid 26 June 2020

A dividend of 3.06 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders

on 26 June 2020 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest

in Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with

43% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to

DRP participants are at a 3% discount to market price. If you would

like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar,

Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

PERFORMANCE

as at 30 June 2020

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

20 July 2020

Bucket 3 – Economically sensitive: Port of Tauranga,

Mainfreight, Freightways, Ryman, Summerset

Mainfreight provided a granular assessment of the impacts on each

business early in the 2021 fiscal year. Its Australian business is

performing very strongly and growing at a double-digit rate year-on-year

despite COVID-19 as a result of market share gains from competitors.

The New Zealand domestic transport business fell 40-45% during Alert

Level 4 but bounced back to be growing year-on-year.

Ryman and Summerset moved early to implement strict measures to

protect their vulnerable elderly residents and prevent COVID-19 from

entering its villages. This and other initiatives like “happy hour in a bag”

have built on their strong brands. It will likely accelerate penetration of

retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia and share gains from

independent and lower quality operators as potential residents seek out

a provider “good enough for mum”.

Bucket 4 – Eye of the storm: Auckland Airport, Vista

Auckland Airport raised enough equity capital to take any balance

sheet funding stress off the table right through until December 2021. The

$1.2 billion equity raising was larger than expected and can sustain

the balance sheet even if the current extremely low level of passengers

moving through the airport continues through 2021. That is not their

base case expectation, but we applaud the prudent approach. Auckland

Airport is an attractive, long duration, critical infrastructure asset and was

priced near our long-term bear case valuation. We added to the position

including in the capital raising at a discounted price. People will travel

again.

Most cinemas globally are shut. Many cinemas paused paying their

fees to Vista. This put the company’s liquidity position under stress. We

participated in the company’s equity raising at $1.05, which ensures

Vista has sufficient liquidity for an extended period. COVID-19 aside,

Vista has continued to grow its market share to 50% for its core cinema

product globally outside of China. It is multiple times the size of its next

biggest global competitor. The company will return to growth when

cinemas inevitably re-open.

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

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us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.