Market update – Framework for FY21
F Y 1 9
F U L L Y E A R R E S U L T S
P R E S E N T A T I O N
Our Framework for FY21
31 July 2020
Disclaimer
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and projections. These reflect thl’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are
reasonable assumptions. The statements are based on information available to thlat the date of this presentation and are not guarantees or
predictions of future performance. For any number of reasons, the future could be different and the assumptions on which the forward-looking
statements and projections are based could be wrong. thlgives no warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or any future
matter. Except as required by law or NZX listing rules, thlis not obliged to update this presentation after its release, even if things change
materially.
This presentation has been prepared for publication in New Zealand and may not be released or distributed in the United States.
This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not an offer of securities, or a proposal or
invitation to make any such offer, in the United States or any other jurisdiction, and may not be relied upon in connection withany purchase of thl
securities. thlsecurities have not been, and will not be, registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold in the
United States, except in transactions exempt from, or not subject to, the registration of the US Securities Act and applicable US State securities
laws. Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indication
of future performance.
This presentation may contain a number of non-GAAP financial measures. Because they are not defined by NZ GAAP or IFRS, thl’s calculation of
these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or
construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with NZ GAAP.
This presentation does not take into account any specific investors objectives and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors are
encouraged to make an independent assessment of thl. The information contained in this presentation should be read in conjunction with thl’s
latest financial statements, which are available at: www.thlonline.com.
Summary
•Our framework for FY21 is tocreate flexibility through fleet management, cost reduction
and debt reduction
•Our current assumption is that thlwill operate in a domestic-only environment for the
majority, if not all, of FY21, but we will retain key capabilities and the ability to efficiently
meet demand once international travel flows resume
•Our response to COVID-19 in FY20 has put thlin a positive starting position to meet the
domestic-only market conditions we expect for FY21
•thlis focused on reducing debt. We have strengthened our balance sheet by achieving debt
reduction of approximately 40% since March 2020, and we expect to continue to reduce
debt in FY21
•thl’s current operating assumption is for vehicle sales volumes in FY21 that are at least
similar to normal pre-COVID levels. We will target higher sales volumes where possible.
Management’s expectations are for an up to 30% reduction in fleet size in FY21
•We expect to grow the domestic market in New Zealand, Australia and the United States,
however replacing international bookings with domestic bookings will not provide the same
level of returns due to the nature of the domestic market
•In the absence of a major deterioration in operating conditions, we expect to remain cash
flow positive throughout FY21, mainly underpinned by vehicle sales
3
thl ’s response to COVID-19 in FY20
4
A range of cost reduction initiatives
Cost reduction
•Significant cost reduction programme involving:
•Variable costs moving down effectively with volume reductions
•Lowering of labour expense to match staff numbers with activity
levels and utilisation of Government support packages
•Temporary rent reductions on certain properties
•Temporary director and executive compensation reductions (until
August 2020) and executive salary freeze in FY21
•Flexibility to return to sustainable operations as market conditions
change
•Notwithstanding, there are a number of fixed costs which will continue
to accrue despite lower volumes
•Whilst the costs indicated for April and May include the benefit of
Government subsidies, they are broadly indicative of the cash burn in
our business in a worst case scenario
1 April –31 MayFY20FY19VAR%
Labour costs
$6.1M $14.5M -58%
Property costs
$1.9M$2.7M-29%
Other overhead and
operating costs
$6.5M$17.4M-63%
Total costs
$14.5M$34.7M-58%
Costs were cut significantly during the respective
lockdown periods in April and May 2020
thl ’s response to COVID-19 in FY20
5
Fleet management and cash preservation initiatives
Cash preservation and capital management
•Cancellation of non-committed fleet capital expenditure
•Kiwi Experience business (largely reliant on European backpacker market)
in hibernation until market conditions improve
•Cancellation of FY20 interim and full year dividend
•Received support from banking partners by concluding new funding
arrangements and determined that thldid not need to raise additional
equity at that time
Fleet management
•Managed reduction in fleet levels to meet dual objectives of:
•Right sizing fleet for anticipated near-term post-COVID activity levels;
and
•Monetising inherent value of fleet asset base to drive debt repayment
•Significant reduction in debt driven by strong vehicle sales in Q4 FY20
1 April –30 JuneFY20FY19VAR%
Vehicle sales revenue
$53.4M$39.6M35%
Rental andservices
revenue
$43.2M$99.0M-56%
Total revenue
$96.6M$138.5M-30%
Net debt of $197 million as at 24 March 2020 was
reduced by $64 million to approximately $133 million
1
at 30 June 2020
1
Preliminary result subject to audit and finalisation of FY21 financial statements.
Our framework for FY21
6
•Globally,theRVrentalmarkethasbeenmateriallyaffectedbytheimplementationoftravelrestrictionsduetoCOVID-19withthefocusnowturningtoemphasisingand
encouragingdomestictourisminthenear-termasinternationaltravelremainssubdued
•thlfacesdifferentcircumstancesandoperatingenvironmentsandhasthereforetailoreditsstrategyineachcountrytobestrespondtotheexpectedenvironmentinFY21
inthatregion
•Weareoperatingunderthecurrentassumptionthatthlwilloperateinadomestic-onlyenvironmentinalloperatingjurisdictionsforthemajority,ifnotall,ofFY21
•Howeverwearemindfulofretainingkeycapabilitiesandresourceswithinthebusinessandtheabilitytoefficientlymeetdemandwheninternationaltravelflowsresume
•Withouttheinternationalmarket,thlexpectsthatithasapproximately35–45%excessfleetcapacityonaglobalbasis
•Givenrecentstrongsalesactivity,thl’scurrentoperatingassumptionisforvehiclesalesvolumesinFY21thatareatleastsimilartonormalpre-COVIDlevels.Wewill
continuetotargetmaximumachievablevehiclesalesandremainopentoopportunitiesforlarge-scalewholesaletransactions:
•NewZealandsalesassumptionforFY21:Approx.500–800vehicles
•AustraliansalesassumptionforFY21:Approx.200–350vehicles
•USAsalesassumptionforFY21:Approx.800–1,200vehicles
•Additionalcapacityatrentalsbrancheswillbeutilisedbyre-purposingthesitesforvehiclesalesandservicing,bothofwhichareaimedatthedomesticmarket
•thl’ssignificantcostreductionprogrammehasreduceditscostbasetoamoresustainablelevelforthemarketconditionsinFY21
•ThiscombinationofdebtandcostreductionistheprudentapproachinthecontextofuncertaintyinFY21,andprovidesthlwiththeflexibilitytoefficientlyrespondto
therecoveryoftheTrans-Tasmanorglobalmarkets
The framework: Create flexibility through fleet management, cost reduction and debt reduction
New Zealand rentals and sales
New Zealand
•Historically, approximately 10% of rentals customers are domestic
•We are targeting an increase in the number of domestic bookings in FY21 in excess
of 5 x normal levels
•The ‘get moving to get New Zealand moving’ campaign has achieved unprecedented
brand exposure and ensured greater than normal utilisation for Q1 FY21, where
utilisation would otherwise have likely been very low
•The vehicle sales market has generally held up, with potential new customers given
the reduction in substitute travel products
•Pivoted the business towards the domestic-focused vehicle sales and servicing
markets, while reducing fleet size
•Use of partnerships to increase vehicle exposure, driving sales and rentals –our
partnership with the Top 10 holiday parks network has created 10 new pop-up
branches as associated parks
•Following the initial government assistance provided by thl for quarantine
accommodation, efficient minimisation of the pandemic has meant limited
opportunities for further COVID-19 revenue
7
Australia rentals and sales
Australia
•Historically, approximately 40% of rentals customers are domestic
•We are targeting an increase in the number of domestic bookings in FY21 of
between2 –3 x normal levels
•The large domestic population presents a good domestic rentals opportunity –as
the Australian outbound tourism market is usually larger than inbound tourism
1
•Greater volatility in rentals with second COVID-19 wave underway and uncertainty
regarding timing for ease of intrastate and interstate travel restrictions
•As such demand is recovering at different rates by state, reflective of the COVID-19
situation within each state
•The vehicle sales market has generally held up, with potential new customers given
the reduction in substitute travel products
•Labour expense is currently in the process of being reviewed given the latest
changes to the JobKeeperscheme announced on 21 July
1
‘Restarting tourism... a look at a Trans-Tasman bubble’, Deloitte, 4 June 2020.
8
USA rentals and sales
United States
•Historically, approximately 45% of rentals customers are domestic
•The USA’s large domestic population combined with a strong RV culture presents the
greatest domestic rentals opportunity of all our markets –but there is risk given the
ongoing and severe COVID-19 presence and travel quarantine measures
•Based on recent performance, we consider that there is potential for a greater number
of bookings in FY21 (domestic only) compared to a normal year (international and
domestic). However total revenue and hire days, and therefore returns, would still likely
be lower than normal due to the nature of the domestic market –see next slide
•Maximising the opportunity in the vehicle sales market resulting from increased demand
due to travel category shift to RV and a shortage of supply from manufacturers
•Some competitors are undertaking significant re-structuring to manage costs, lower
capital expenditure, and preserving cash and hibernating in certain locations, presenting
potential opportunities for thl
•FY21 fleet capital expenditure has not been finalised and will be based on vehicle sales
performance. We will seek to retain maximum optionality, whilst remaining mindful of
the normal lead time for new fleet purchases
1
9
1
Capital expenditure subject to bank approval under thl’s banking facilities.
Limitations of the domestic market
10
Historical domestic customer split, fleet utilization and seasonality
Q1
(July -September)
Q2
(October -December)
Q3
(January -March)
Q4
(April -June)
Rentals -New
Zealand
Domestic
customers: ~15%
Utilisation: ~40%
Low season
Domestic
customers: ~5%
Utilisation: ~70%
High season
Domestic
customers: ~5%
Utilisation: ~80%
High season
Domestic
customers: ~20%
Utilisation: ~40%
Low season
Rentals -
Australia
Domestic
customers: ~50%
Utilisation: ~70%
Low season
Domestic
customers: ~30%
Utilisation: ~70%
High season
Domestic
customers: ~30%
Utilisation: ~80%
High season
Domestic
customers: ~55%
Utilisation: ~70%
Low season
Rentals -USA
Domestic
customers: ~40%
Utilisation: ~70%
High season
Domestic
customers: ~75%
Utilisation: ~33%
Low season
Domestic
customers: ~60%
Utilisation: ~30%
Low season
Domestic
customers: ~50%
Utilisation: ~60%
High season
•Replacing international bookings with domestic bookings will not
provide the same level of returns given a number of factors:
•Domestic bookings are often clustered around the same periods –
long weekends and school holidays
•Domestic bookings are usually at a lower yield (most notably in
New Zealand) as the customer is generally unwilling to pay the
same premium during peak periods –they have the option of
using their personal vehicle at no cost and staying at
hotels/motels
•Domestic bookings are on average 60% shorter in duration than
international bookings
•It is more challenging to maintain a steady, high utilisation
1
in the
domestic market
•Domestic utilisation comes at a greater operational cost as it involves
more pick ups, returns and vehicle preparations being required to
service the same number of booked days compared to the
international market
1
Utilisation is an internal measure reflecting the amount of hire days booked relative to the total number available.
2
Booking pattern for a single vehicle for one month, with green representing booked days. Diagram is for illustrative purposes
only and is not reflective of expected utilisation or booking durations.
MTWTF
S
S
MTWTF
S
S
MTWTF
S
S
MTWTF
S
S
MTWTF
S
S
MTWTF
S
S
Typical international
utilisation pattern
2
Typical domestic
utilisation pattern
2
MTWTF
S
S
MTWT
MTWTF
S
S
MTWT
Phases in thl’srecovery roadmap
11
Cash burn
Sales proceeds facilitate
positive cash flow
Rental revenue facilitates
positive cash flow
Group profitability
and growth
•Minimal revenue through the
April 2020 lockdown period
•Key objective was to reduce cash
outflow through cost reduction
initiatives undertaken in Q4 FY20
and use of government support
initiatives
1
•Sought to reduce semi-fixed costs
by reducing group support
capacity, seeking temporary rent
relief and re-negotiating lease
terms
•Use of sales proceeds to fund
operating losses and reduce debt
in May and June 2020
•Vehicle sales to right-size fleet as
appropriate within each country,
reflective of the domestic rental
opportunity and COVID travel risk
•Continued reduction of semi-
fixed costs
•Limited fleet replenishment, in
line with the domestic rental
opportunity and quantum of
vehicles sold
•Profitability within certain
business units during high season
months
•Vehicle sales to align with fleet
replenishment or to allow for
limited fleet growth if the rental
market experiences a steep
recovery
•Fleet right-sized globally
•Re-commence normal fleet
replenishment in all countries
•While timing of this is highly
uncertain, the opening of
international borders on a large
scale should accelerate
permanent return to this
recovery phase
•Seek to improve market share
relative to pre-COVID position as
some participants exit and thl’s
balance sheet strength compared
to key competitors provides an
ability to grow fleet earlier
•Return on funds employed
remains a key focus
1
See market announcements on 20 March 2020 and 3 April 2020 for further information.
Lock-down periodFY21, depending on demand outcomes and seasonality
Target once international
tourism resumes
12
Fleet size and capital management
Numberof fleetNew ZealandAustraliaUSAGroup
Estimated FY20 fleet size
2,5001,4001,9505,850
Committed FY21
purchases
140 -170160 –220*0300–390
Estimated additional FY21
purchases
00400
1
400
Target FY21 sales
500 –800200 –350800 –1,2001,500 –2,350
Estimated FY21 fleet size
1,840 –2,1701,210 –1,4201,150 –1,5504,200 –5,140
Management’s expectation of fleet size in FY21
•As at 30 June 2020, thlhad a fleet book value of ~$377m,
2
which underpinned its
gearing ratio of 43%.
2
•Management’s expectations are for an up to 30% reduction in fleet size in FY21
•Given thl’sfocus on renewing fleet over the last three years, the increase in average
fleet age resulting from limited to no new fleet expenditure is not anticipated to
impact thl’s product offering and customer value proposition
•thlhas experienced, and is expected to continue to experience, positive average gains
on vehicle sales, meaning:
•thl’s debt-to-equity ratio would reduce by selling fleet and applying
100% of the proceeds to debt reduction; and
•vehicle sales at an average positive gain on sale will contribute to
improving net tangible assets
•thl’s starting equity position, together with its fleet and debt reduction strategy,
places it in a strong position to undertake fleet capital expenditure as global tourism
recovers
3
•Using vehicle sales as a monetisation lever is a reflection of thl’s flexible business
model and benefit of thl’s reasonably liquid asset backing
•Committed fleet capital expenditure expected to be incurred in FY21 is approximately
$17 -$25 million
4
, plus a further $8 million of buyback expenditure
•We will continue to target maximum achievable vehicle sales and remain open to
large-scale wholesale transactions. Any such transactions would be in addition to the
indicated target sales numbers
Fleet book value
2
(as at 30 June 2020)
1
Indicative figure only and not currently committed capital expenditure. Subject to bank approval as required under thl’s facilities
2
Operational numbers without potential year end, non-cash, consolidation or abnormal adjustments (e.g. impact of TOGO transaction which would lower tangible assets, and potential impairments). Fleet book
value includes inventory and excludes WIP. Debt-to-equity ratio is debt/ debt + equity ratio (net of Intangibles)
3
Subject to bank approval as required under thl’s facilities, and dependent on market demand and vehicle sales performance
4
Quantum of commitment not finalised and may be subject to change
* Includes 90 buyback vehicles
Action Manufacturing
13
•People changes completed at the Albany manufacturing facility and site
has been partly repurposed in line with the thl focus on vehicle sales
and servicing in New Zealand
•Temporary rent relief secured at Albany and Hamilton sites
•Positive signs in the commercial and emergency services manufacturing
market, particularly in the Government sector:
•Successful tender with the New Zealand Defence Force
•Successful tender with the New Zealand Police
•Successful tender for large projects with various New Zealand District
Health Boards, with discussions underway for further projects
•Successful tender with Queensland Ambulance Service
•Extension of existing contract with St John New Zealand Ambulance
People and experience
14
•Chief Operating Office role currently under review
•Executive recruitment process underway for the Chief Financial
Officer role becoming vacant in October 2020
•The thlExecutive team has significant experience in the RV industry
with the combined skills and experience to lead thlthrough the
upcoming period and recovery
•Across the 12 people in thl’s broader Executive team, there is an
average length of service exceeding 10 years
•We would like to acknowledge all the dedicated thlcrew that are, or
have been part of thlthroughout these challenging times
End
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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