Fonterra Shareholders' Fund logo

Global Dairy Update July 2020

Operational Update30 July 2020FSFConsumer Staples

• The Co-operative Difference payment.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• Beginning of 2020/21 season in New Zealand.

Australia nears end of season on improved

monthly production. EU monthly production

slows, US improves.

• New Zealand and Australia monthly exports

decline and monthly increase from US and EU.

• Latin America, Asia and Middle East and Africa

imports show strong decline. China monthly

imports improve.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for

the first month of the 2020/21 season was

14.7 million kgMS, less than 1% of the full

season  forecast.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection reached

107.8 million kgMS for the full 2019/20 season

to 30 June 2020.

• Doing our bit to support New Zealand’s small and

medium-sized businesses.

Key Dates

31 July 2020

End of Financial Year 2020

21 September 2020

FY20 Annual Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

JULY 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

0.56.02.0

1.10.91.3

0.3

0.5

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

Beginning of 2020/21

season in New Zealand.

Australia nears end of

season on improved

monthly production. EU

monthly production slows,

US

improves

New Zealand milk

p

roduction¹ increased

2.0% on a litres basis in June

compared to June last year.

June typically repre

sents

around 1% of the season's

p

roduction.

A warm start to winter

and significant rainfall for

many parts of the country

have seen favourable

conditions for the start of the

new season.

New Zealand milk

p

roduction for the 12 months

to June was 0.5% lower than

last year.

Fonterra collecti

ons are

reported for June, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 6.0%

in May compared to May

last year.

Improving seasonal

conditions stabilised

production in the second

half of the 2019/20 season

and improved the outlook for

the 2020/21 season.

Production for the 12 months

to May was down 1.1% on the

previous 12 months.

Dairy Australia has

moderated its milk

production outlook for

2019/20 upwards to a drop

of just 1-3% on last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for June,

see page 5 for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production decreased by

0.3% in May compared to

the same period last year.

The main regions showing

a decline in production

were Italy (down 7.5%),

France (2.0%) and the UK

(1.0%). Partially offsetting

this decline were increased

volumes in Ireland (up 3.5%)

and Poland (1.8%).

The decline is likely related

to the slow-down in

foodservice and tourism-

related consumption.

EU milk production for the

12 months to May was up by

0.9% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

increased by 0.5% in June,

compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production improved

year-on-year in June

following May’s slow-down

due to production restriction

programmes put in place.

Milk production for the 12

months to June was 1.3%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and Australia

monthly exports decline and

monthly increase from US

and EU

Total New Zealand

dairy exports decreased

by 7.6%, or 21,733 MT, in

May compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven by

lower volumes of WMP to

China and Bangladesh, down

6,944 MT, butter to China,

down 6,293 MT, MPC to the

US, down 3,600 MT, but

partially offset by an increase

in SMP, up 6,279  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

May were down by 2.7%, or

34,427 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by butter,

WMP and AMF.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports increased by

7.0%, or 35,526 MT, in April

compared to the same

period last year.

This was mainly driven by

increases in whey to China

and SE Asia, butter to US

and MENA, lactose to China

and WMP to Oman, up a

combined 33,835 MT. SMP

and fluid milk products

partially offset this increase,

down 9,963  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to April were up 5.4%, or

301,234 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Butter,

cheese and fluid milk

products were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 223,238  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 14.7%, or 29,809  MT,

in May compared to the same

period last year.

May export volumes were

driven by record volumes of

SMP to SE Asia, MENA and

China (up 15,596 MT), higher

exports of lactose to SE Asia

and China (up 5,682 MT) and

higher volume of whey to

China (up 4,815 MT).

Exports for the 12 months to

May 2020 were up 4.4%, or

100,698 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven by

SMP and WPC and lactose, up

a combined 131,966 MT, and

partially offset by decreases in

whey, down 23,078  MT.

Australia dairy exports

decreased by 18.4%, or

12,455 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

This was primarily driven by

fluid milk products, infant

formula and WMP, down a

combined 10,792  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were down 8.9%, or

70,244 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, infant

formula, whey, cheese, butter

and WMP down 82,244 MT

and partially offset by fluid

milk products, up 17,868  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

14.718.47.6

8.95.44.4

7.0

2.7

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America, Asia and

Middle East and Africa

imports show strong

decline. China monthly

imports improve

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

12.0%, or 18,444MT, in April

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

continued lower volumes of

SMP and cheese to Mexico,

and butter to Chile, down a

combined 18,583  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

April 2020 were down 2.7%,

or 52,602 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year.

Decreases were driven

primarily by infant formula,

WMP, SMP and whey, down

a combined 74,096 MT but

largely offset by increases in

WPC, up 18,916  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 14.7%, or

65,235 MT, in April compared

to the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

primarily in WMP to SE Asia,

SMP and fluid milk products

to the Philippines, and cheese

to Japan, down a combined

57,385  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to April were down 5.0%, or

247,484 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across SMP, WMP, fluid

products, and infant formula,

down a combined 249,582  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 7.1%, or 28,223  MT,

in April 2020 compared to

the same period last year.

Decreases were recorded

principally in butter to Iran

and Turkey and fluid milk

product to Libya, down

a combined 42,881  MT,

and partially offset by

increased volumes of SMP of

19,064  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

April 2020 were down 4.3%,

or 177,507 MT, compared

to the same period last

year. This was driven by

large decreases in fluid

milk products, cheese and

butter, down a combined

186,532  MT.

China dairy import

volumes increased by

3.2%, or 7,818 MT, in May

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was the result

of higher volumes of whey,

WMP, and lactose, up a

combined 31,351 MT, and

partially offset by a decrease

in fluid milk products of

14,084  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

May were up 6.2%, driven by

fluid milk products and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%%

%%

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for April 2020

compared to April 2019

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

Change for the 12 months

to April 2020

3.2

14.712.0

5.04.3

%

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

6.2

7.1

2.7

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%

For the 2019/20 season

compared to the previous season

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Season to date

1 June to 30 June

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

2.016.01.22.7

11.816.01.22.7

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in June was

6.8 million kgMS, a 2.0%

decrease on June last year.

Full season collections reached

107.8 million kgMS, down 11.8%

on the same period last season.

Volumes have been impacted by

a combination of drought, high

on-farm input costs in the first

half and the highly competitive

milk supply market, with losses

primarily to milk brokers.

Fonterra also made a conscious

decision to purchase less

third-party milk to focus on a

value-add product mix.

Good autumn conditions for

much of Australia and across

key dairy regions in Victoria and

Tasmania have improved milk

production for the 2019/20

season and the outlook for

2020/21.

North Island milk collection

in June was 11 million kgMS,

down 1.2% on June last season.

Effects of the drought have

begun to ease with some

meaningful rainfall during May

and June.

South Island milk collection

in June was 3.8 million kgMS,

up 16.0% on June last season.

The South Island saw a strong

start to the season, with milk

production well up on the

same month last year, even

allowing for the small volumes

expected at this time of

the season.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for the first month

of the 2020/21 season was

14.7 million kgMS, ahead

2.7% on the same month

last season. This represents

less than 1% of the full

season forecast.

A relatively mild June

across much of the country

allowed some pastures to

partially recover.

%

%

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JUL FEB JUL OCT DEC FEB MAY JUL SEP DEC MAY 







,

, 

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

D

airy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar t

rend

Financial markets are steady

as they weigh the dichotomy

between improving economic

performances post-lockdowns,

and an increasingly worrying

picture of global health

outcomes as COVID-19

spreads further. The NZD

continues to find relative

stability around 66 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

21 July 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 4 August 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.2

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price

(USD/MT)

3,233

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

23.3

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,218/MT

0.3

WMP

USD 3,870/MT

2.8

AMF

USD 2,697/MT

0.6

SMP

USD 3,533/MT

5.0

BUTTER

USD 3,803/MT

1.1

CHEDDAR

23,295

MT

LATEST AUCTION

688,164

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

The Co-operative Difference Payment

Fonterra farmers producing

sustainable, high quality

milk will be eligible for a

new payment, as Fonterra

announces important

changes to the way it pays

farmers for their milk.

From 1 June 2021, Fonterra is

introducing a Co-operative

Difference payment of up

to 10 cents per kilogram

of milk solids (kgMS) if the

farm meets the Co-op’s

on-farm sustainability and

value targets. It’s part of

the Co-op’s strategy to add

value to New Zealand milk

and responds to increasing

demand from customers

here and around the world

for sustainably-produced

dairy. The payment will be

funded out of the Farmgate

Milk Price.

“The total Farmgate Milk

Price will remain the same

across the Co-operative,

but the amount that each

individual farm is paid will

vary depending on their

contribution under The

Co-operative Difference,

in addition to the other

variables, like fat and protein,

which affect the amount

that’s paid,” says Fonterra

CEO Miles Hurrell.

“We’ve always paid our

farmers based on the value

that milk provides to the

Co-operative. The reality is

that the drivers of value are

changing, and we need to

reflect that. Our customers

want to know that the

products they are buying

are not only safe, but also

produced sustainably.

“This payment helps us meet

the changing needs of our

customers, so they continue

to choose our milk and enjoy

dairy as a sustainable and

nutritious choice.

“We want to deliver the

innovation, sustainability and

efficiency needed to make

the most difference to our

strategy and our bottom line.

It makes sense to financially

reward those farmers who

go the extra mile to help our

Co-op differentiate its milk.”

Last year Fonterra launched

The Co-operative Difference

– a straight-forward

framework to help farmers

produce high-quality,

sustainable milk and prepare

for any changes needed in

the future.

The payment will replace the

Farm Source Reward Dollars

farmers currently earn

through The Co-operative

Difference and will work on

a tiered system. The more

a farmer achieves in The

Co-operative Difference

programme, the higher

the payment will be. The

precise payment structure

will be confirmed over the

next few months following

discussions with farmers

but will be no more than

10 cents per kgMS.

Nestlé’s Robert Erhard

says, “At Nestlé, how milk

is produced matters. Now

more than ever, people

expect farmers to act as

good stewards of the land

– safeguarding the climate,

enhancing animal welfare

and carefully managing

water and the health of soils.”

“Farmers put in a lot of

effort to produce the best

quality milk possible. Over

recent years, large numbers

of farmers have spent a

significant amount of time

and money to improve

their local environment and

waterways to make their

farms sustainable for the

future. It’s great to see these

farmers distinguished and

rewarded for their efforts

to produce and deliver

a product that Fonterra

can capture the highest

value from. Through The

Co-operative Difference,

we can get better, together,”

says Northland dairy farmer

Terence Brocx.

“We’ve created this with

our Co-operative principles

in mind. All farmers

can participate in The

Co-operative Difference and

we’ll keep supporting them

through Farm Source,” says

Mr Hurrell.

“We want farmers looking

to the future, and The

Co-operative Difference

encourages them to

continue to focus on the

things that will create the

highest value milk. This

helps us create higher value

products that stand out

in the global market for

their New Zealand-ness

and the sustainable way

they’re produced.”

Our Co-op
8

Doing our bit to support

New Zealand’s small

and medium-sized

businesses

As a Co-operative owned

by 10,000 farming families,

Fonterra recognises the

enormous contribution

small and medium-sized

businesses make to

New Zealand’s economy

and it’s important the

Co-op plays its part in

supporting the country’s

economic recovery.

Since March, when

New Zealand first started

dealing with COVID-19,

Fonterra has been looking at

ways to support employees,

farmers and communities

through the pandemic and

its after-effects.

One of the ways Fonterra

could help was by paying

its 3,000 small and

medium-sized vendors

more quickly and, as of

1 July 2020, the Co-op

accelerated payments to

eligible businesses so they’re

paid within 10 days from the

receipt of invoice. Previously,

small to medium-sized

enterprises (SMEs) were paid

on the 20th of the month

following the invoice date.

Fonterra knows that getting

paid quickly helps cashflow

and keeps businesses

running smoothly and this

is a small but important way

the Co-op can support the

country’s economic recovery.

It also demonstrates

Fonterra’s commitment to

supporting New Zealand’s

regional communities.

New Zealand vendors who

Fonterra spends up to

$300,000 per annum with,

and who have fewer than

50 employees, are eligible.

That represents 86% of all

the Co-op’s New Zealand

suppliers and the goal is

to pay 95% of eligible SME

invoices within ten days of

receiving them.

Fonterra’s able to do this

because of a significant

overhaul of its vendor

payment system in the last

few years, which has seen

all vendors moved onto

electronic invoicing and

encouraging them to use

a NZ Business Number.

This has improved invoice

accuracy in the Co-op’s

system which enables

those businesses to be paid

on time.

There are quite a few things

that have to be in place to

ensure invoices are paid

quickly. For example, vendors

need to submit correct

invoices, and invoices need

to be checked in a timely

manner to ensure they

match the services delivered.

The Co-op has already been

working with vendors to

ensure their invoices are

right first time by providing

practical tips on what is

required. It has also been

impressing on its team

the importance of prompt

processing of invoices and

the flow-on effect this has

for vendors.

The Co-op moved fast

to accelerate payments

to better serve business-

owners and New Zealand’s

economy. It demonstrates

Fonterra’s commitment

to working with and

supporting New Zealand’s

local communities, not

only during COVID-19,

but beyond.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.

NOTE: Data for EU to April; New Zealand, Australia and US to May.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to April; China to May.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL AUG MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN


,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2020

JUNE


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

14.814.42.7%14.814.42.7%

North Island11. 011. 1(1.2%)11. 011. 1(1.2%)

South Island3.83.316.0%3.83.316.0%

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

JUNE

2020

JUNE


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2018/19

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Fonterra Australia6.87.0(2.0%)107.8122.2(11. 8%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(21 JULY 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2019)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

23,295688,164

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(2.9%)1.8%

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,2333,269

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(6.3%)5.1%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(0.2%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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