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Global Dairy Update August 2020

Operational Update1 September 2020FSFConsumer Staples

• Teh-han Chow appointed as CEO, Greater China.
• Our Annual Results will be released on 18 September 2020.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• A good start to the 2020/21 season in

New Zealand. Australia nears end of season

on improved monthly production. EU and US

production improves.

• New Zealand and Australia monthly exports

bounce back while EU export growth softens.

Strong increase in US exports.

• China monthly imports show strong increase.

Latin America, Asia and Middle East and Africa

imports continue to decline.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection for

the second month of the 2020/21 season was

19.1 million kgMS, up 4.1% on prior season.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for July,

the first month of the 2020/21 season, was

5.1 million kgMS.

• Kowbucha™ and seaweed: Fonterra’s innovation to

tackle methane.

Key Dates

18 September 2020

FY20 Annual Results

Announcement

5 November 2020

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

AUGUST 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

1.56.04.6

1.10.91.4

0.9

0.5

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

A good start to the 2020/21

season in New Zealand.

Australia nears end of

season on improved

monthly production. EU and

US production improves

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased

4.6% on a litres basis in July

compared to July last year.

Mild conditions have been

favourable to the start of

the season’s production.

Winter milk is also

supporting production.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to July was 0.5% lower than

last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for July, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production increased 6.0%

in May compared to May

last year.

Improving seasonal

conditions stabilised

production in the second

half of the 2019/20 season

and improved the outlook for

the 2020/21 season.

Production for the 12 months

to May was down 1.1% on the

previous 12 months.

No data is available yet for

June production.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for July,

see page 5 for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

0.9% in June compared to

the same period last year.

The main regions showing an

increase in production were

Poland (up 4.6%), Ireland

(2.9%) and Belgium (3.9%).

These were partially offset

by continuing declines from

Italy, France and Spain.

EU milk production for the

12 months to June was up by

0.9% compared to the same

period last year.

US milk production

increased by 1.5% in July,

compared to the same

period last year.

Following the relaxing of

milk restrictions and cow

number increases, US milk

production improved year-

on-year in July, reversing a

three-month trend. Despite

the production growth in

July, uncertainty linked to the

Covid-19 pandemic remains

with the potential impact of

a second wave.

Milk production for the

12 months to July was 1.4%

higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and Australia

monthly exports bounce

back while EU export

growth softens. Strong

increase in US exports

Total New Zealand

dairy exports increased

by 9.0%, or 21,672 MT, in

June compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven

by higher volumes of

WMP to the Middle East

(up 19,442 MT) and partly

attributable to timing as

May exports were down

7,000 MT. SMP exports

to South East Asia also

increased in June (up

3,444 MT) and were partially

offset by a decrease in

cheese (down 3,120 MT).

Exports for the 12 months to

June were down by 2.0%, or

70,887 MT, on the previous

comparable period. This was

primarily driven by butter,

AMF, cheese and WMP.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports increased 3.2%, or

15, 985 MT, in May compared

to the same period last year.

This was mainly driven by

increases in whey to China,

butter to the US and China,

lactose to China and Japan

and WMP to Algeria, up a

combined 30,737 MT and

partially offset by a decrease

in SMP and infant formula

exports of 16,697  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to May were up 5.2%, or

289,693 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Butter,

cheese, fluid milk products

and whey were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 263,759 MT. It was

partially offset by a decline in

SMP of 42,141  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 26.5%, or 48,414  MT,

in June compared to the same

period last year.

Strong June export volumes

were driven by record

shipments of SMP to South

East Asia, Egypt and China

(up 33,018 MT), and cheese to

Mexico (up 8,493 MT).

Exports for the 12 months to

June 2020 were up 7.7%, or

173,986 MT on the previous

comparable period, driven by

SMP, lactose, and WPC up a

combined 174,731  MT.

Australia dairy exports

bounced back from the

decline in May, increasing

by 14.8%, or 10,099 MT, in

June compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven

by fluid milk products,

cheese, whey and SMP, up a

combined 10,099  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to June were down 8.4%, or

66,348 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with SMP, infant

formula, whey, WMP, cheese

and butter, down 77,362 MT

and partially offset by fluid

milk products, up 15,389  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

26.514.89.0

8.45.27.7

3.2

2.0

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China monthly imports

show strong increase.

Latin America, Asia and

Middle East and Africa

imports continue to decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

19.9%, or 35,677 MT, in May

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven by

continued lower volumes of

SMP and cheese to Mexico

and Brazil, WMP to Brazil and

fluid milk products to Haiti,

down a combined 29,602  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

May 2020 were down 4.5%,

or 88,928 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year. Decreases

were driven primarily by

SMP, WMP, infant formula,

and whey, down a combined

93,511 MT, partially offset

by increases in WPC, up

15, 392  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 7.6%, or 33,514  MT,

in May compared to the same

period last year. Decreases

were recorded primarily

in fluid milk products to

Philippines, WMP and SMP

to South East Asia, and infant

formula to Malaysia, down a

combined 37,908  MT.

Imports for the 12 months

to May were down 4.9%, or

244,574 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

The main decreases were

recorded across SMP, WMP,

fluid products, down a

combined 246,577  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 6.6% or 24,630 MT

in May 2020 compared to

the same period last year.

The main decreases were in

fluid milk product to Kenya

and Libya, infant formula to

Nigeria and butter to Iran

and Turkey, down a combined

48,077 MT, and partially offset

by increased volumes of SMP

of 18,231  MT.

Imports for the 12 months to

May 2020 were down 4.0%,

or 164,103 MT, compared

to May last year driven by

decreased imports of fluid

milk products, infant formula

and butter, down a combined

236,435 MT, offset by increases

in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased 21.4%,

or 48,373 MT, in June

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was the result

of higher volumes in whey,

fluid milk products and

lactose, up a combined

48,452 MT. China’s imports

of whey last year were lower

due to the impact of African

Swine Flu.

Imports for the 12 months

to June were up 7.6%, driven

by fluid milk products, WMP

and whey.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

%

%

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for June 2020

compared to June 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for May 2020

compared to May 2019

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

Change for the 12 months

to May 2020

21.4

7.619.9

4.94.0

%

Change for the 12 months

to June 2020

7.6

6.6

4.5

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%

Season to date

1 July to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Season to date

1 June to 31 July

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

6.53.54.24.1

6.511.32.03.5

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection in July, the first

month of the 2020/21 season,

was 5.1 million kgMS, a 6.5%

decrease on July last year

largely due to a conscious

decision to reduce third-party

milk intake and focus on value.

July’s collection represents only

a small percentage of the new

season’s forecast collection.

The new mandatory Dairy Code

is active for the first time this

season and is to ensure security

over supply with all farmers

having to sign a contract for

the season.

North Island milk collection

in July was 17.1 million kgMS,

4.2% ahead of the same

month last season.

Season-to-date collection was

28 million kgMS, up 2.0% on

last season.

Pasture growth has been

reported as higher than

average, with the mild

conditions also limiting

pasture damage.

South Island milk collection

in July was 2.0 million kgMS,

3.5% ahead of the same

month last season.

Season-to-date collection was

5.8 million kgMS, up 11.3% on

last season.

Favourable weather has

resulted in good grass growth

contributing to animals'

good condition.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection in July was

19.1 million kgMS, 4.1%

ahead of the same month

last season.

Season-to-date collection was

33.8 million kgMS, up 3.5% on

last season.

This represents only around

2% of the full season

forecast collection.

Mild weather across most

regions led to soil conditions

conducive to very good

pasture cover. As a result,

production is tracking higher

than for the same time

last season.

%

%

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%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

AUG  MAR  AUG  OCT  JAN MAR JUN AUG NOV  JAN  JUN 







, 

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

General US dollar weakness

saw the New Zealand dollar

peak at above 67 US cents

by the end of July. However,

continued accommodative

monetary policies from the

RBNZ tempered support for

the NZD and by late August

the exchange rate had settled

nearer 65 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

18 August 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 1 September 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

1.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,020

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

30.8

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,370/MT

2.0

BUTTER

USD 3,873/MT

3.0

AMF

USD 2,936/MT

2.2

WMP

USD 3,442/MT

3.5

CHEDDAR

USD 2,614/MT

1.0

SMP

30,806

MT

LATEST AUCTION

62,664

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Teh-han Chow

appointed as CEO,

Greater China

Fonterra has confirmed

the appointment of

Teh-han Chow to the role

of Chief Executive Officer,

Greater China.

Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell

says since December

2019, Teh-han has been

at the helm in an acting

capacity, overseeing the

Co-op’s overall Greater

China business, including

Ingredients, Foodservice,

Consumer Brands and

China Farms.

“He’s made an impressive

contribution. It’s certainly not

been a steady-state. Teh-han

has been responsible for

implementation of our new

strategy across the Greater

China business, and over

the course of this calendar

year, has shown outstanding

resilience, resourcefulness

and empathy in getting his

team and our China business

through the ongoing

challenge of the COVID-19

global pandemic.

“Teh-han’s leadership

has helped keep us in

good shape during a

very challenging set of

circumstances, and I’m

delighted to welcome him

formally to the Fonterra

Management Team – it’s

well deserved”.

Teh-han has extensive

experience leading large

organisations in the food

sector, as well as proven

ability in business growth

through innovation and

putting customers front

and centre.

Previously, he headed up

Fonterra’s NZMP Ingredients

business for Greater China,

South & East Asia, where

he embedded sustained

improvements in business

performance, strong

customer relationships and

empowering leadership.

Before joining Fonterra in

2015, Teh-han was the CEO

of Louis Dreyfus in China,

a leading merchant and

processor of agricultural

goods. He was also

Managing Director Greater

China for Simplot, a food and

agribusiness company.

Teh-han has a Bachelor’s

degree in Marketing from

California State University

Northridge and a Master’s

degree, with honors, in

International Management

from Thunderbird

Graduate School of

International Management.

Teh-han Chow, Chief Executive

Officer, Greater China

Our Performance

Kowbucha™ and
seaweed: Fonterra’s

innovation to

tackle methane

It’s the million-dollar

question for New Zealand’s

largest industry: how can we

stop cows from burping?

Although cows in

New Zealand produce

only a tiny fraction of

global Greenhouse Gas

– at less than 0.04% –

solving this problem could

reduce New Zealand’s

carbon emissions by up to

20 per cent.

Scientists all around the

world are working on ideas

to reduce the methane

produced by livestock, and

Fonterra’s at the forefront of

that innovation in Aotearoa.

At Fonterra’s Palmerston

North Research and

Development Centre

(FRDC), we’re looking at the

potential of two exciting

new solutions. The details of

the research are kept very

much under wraps, because

we want New Zealand to

lead the way on this, but

without giving away too

many secrets, we’re looking

at natural ways to stop the

cow producing methane in

the first place.

Obviously, there are

sensitivities here in terms

of ensuring that we don’t

change the cow’s natural

biology and the milk it

produces. That’s 100 per cent

natural and we want to keep

it that way. And that’s where

Fonterra’s one-hundred

years of dairy fermentation

expertise comes in.

We have one of the world’s

largest dairy culture

collections to call on. We’re

using some of these cultures

to create new fermentations

we’re calling Kowbucha™,

which could potentially

switch off the bad bugs that

create the methane in cows.

It’s early days but initial

results with Kowbucha™

have been promising.

FRDC scientists are working

with AgResearch and the

Pastoral Greenhouse Gas

Research Consortium to

optimise Kowbucha™ to try

to create a cost effective

and practical solution to

reduce methane.

Another innovation

we’re working on is in

partnership with Australian

environmental company

Sea Forest, to see if using

seaweed in cows’ feed

can reduce greenhouse

gasses. The trial will use

Asparagopsis, a seaweed

grown naturally in Australia

and New Zealand, as a

supplement feed for Fonterra

herds in Tasmania during the

coming milk season.

In laboratory testing led by

Australia’s national science

research agency, CSIRO,

the seaweed has shown

the potential to reduce the

emissions from cows by

more than 80 per cent, so

we’re keen to see if those

test results can be replicated,

safely, in dairy herds at scale.

As a Co-operative owned

by 10,000 farmers, we

recognise reducing methane

gases is an important priority

and it’s exciting to see that

innovations Fonterra’s been

quietly working on are now

starting to bear fruit. And

while it’s still early in the

testing phase (good science

takes time), we’re proud to

be leading New Zealand’s

own solutions to the on-farm

methane problem.

Our Co-op

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for Australia to May; EU to June; New Zealand and US to July.

NOTE: Data for EU to May; New Zealand, Australia and US to June.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to May; China to June.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP NOV DEC JUN


,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

J U LY

2020

J U LY


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

19.118.34.1%33.832.73.5%

North Island17.116.44.2%28.127.52.0%

South Island2.01.93.5%5.85.211. 3%

Australia5.15.4(6.5%)5.15.4(6.5%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(18 AUGUST 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

30,80662,664

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(7.2%)(6.2%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,0203,044

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(8.4%)(7.8%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

(1.5%)–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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