MLN – September 2020 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance for August was +6.7%, while the
Adjusted NAV return for the month was +5.9%. These returns
were ahead of our global benchmark which gained +4.7%.
The MSCI All-Country World index was up 6% in August (the
sharpest gain in August since 1988) and Wall Street’s S&P
500 index gained 7% for the month, wiping out the last of its
pandemic losses and reaching an all-time high.
In the US, August marked the end of the second-quarter
earnings season, which surprised on the upside relative to
market expectations. Even though corporate earnings were
down 33% compared to the prior year, 84% of companies
beat expectations and a large number revised their earnings
guidance higher. Unsurprisingly, the healthcare and information
technology sectors were particularly strong.
While we are still identifying areas of value in the market, the
recent rally has resulted in pockets of the market that appear
increasingly irrational. For example, Apple added the value of
Walmart (the 13th largest company in the world) in August,
after adding the value of Johnston & Johnston (the 12th
largest company in the world) in July. Tesla, which produces
around 400,000 cars a year has reached the combined market
capitalisation of Toyota, VW, Daimler, BMW, GM and Ford, who
together produce roughly 40 million vehicles a year. There has
also been a huge jump in the number of share trading account
openings on retail platforms like Robinhood this year, which
has led to some irrational trading in parts of the market.
Market valuation of Tesla overtakes combined market
valuation of its largest peers
Portfolio Company Developments
Facebook (+16%) was the top contributor to fund
performance in August, benefiting from market enthusiasm
for Facebook Shop and a proposed TikTok ban in the US.
Facebook Shop allows retailers to build a storefront, sell
merchandise and receive payments directly on Facebook.
On top of this Facebook has also extended its Instagram
Checkout pilot from a select group of brands to all US
businesses. The push into ecommerce will allow small
businesses to reach new customers and provides another
avenue for Facebook to monetise its social media properties.
President Trump’s Executive Order to ban Chinese short
video platform TikTok, as well as Facebook launching its own
short video product (called Reels) also provided a boost to
the stock. Reels has been built into Instagram and has seen
good engagement from users since its launch in August.
Hilton (+20%) played a little catch-up in August. It should
be no surprise that the hotelier has lagged other quality
companies given the direct impact coronavirus has had of
Hilton hotel franchisees. The company reported earnings
during the month, which showed a recovery in hotel
occupancy is underway from very low levels. China occupancy
is currently leading the US, providing a good indication of the
roadmap to recovery ahead. Management were also positive
on the sustainability of cost reductions they have taken
and their ability to capture market share from independent
operators as travellers look for brands they can trust.
Alibaba (+14%) had a strong month following a good
earnings report and the announcement of the upcoming
listing of its Ant Group subsidiary. Sales rose 34% last
quarter, with core marketplace growth fully recovering to pre-
COVID levels. However, the bigger news this month was the
upcoming IPO of Ant Group. Ant Group operates the leading
digital payments app Alipay which has over 1 billion users
with around 50% share in China’s digital payments market.
Ant Group also offers a financial service marketplace, where
users can access a range of third-party financial services
such as loans, wealth management and insurance. This is
the fastest growing segment of the business. Alibaba owns
33% of Ant Group which is expected to list with a valuation
of between $200b to $300b, well above previous estimates.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
September 2020
MLN NAVWarrant Price
$
1. 1 3
$
0.21
$
1. 1 9
Share Price
PREMIUM
1
10
%
as at 31 August 2020
Aug
2019
Sept
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
Dec
2019
Jan
2020
Mar
2020
Feb
2020
US $ Billions
Toyota, VW, Daimler, BMW, GM, Ford Mkt Cap
Tesla market capitalisation
Source: Bloomberg
Apr
2020
0.2
0.1
0
0.3
May
2020
Jun
2020
0.6
Jul
2020
0.5
0.4
Aug
2020
2
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 August 2020
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 August 2020
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT
FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE
FEE HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.03
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
152m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$181m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
36
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
5
%
FINANCIALS
19
%
HEALTH CARE
ASIA
20
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 August 2020
10
%
WEST
EUROPE
73
%
NORTH AMERICA
5
%
INDUSTRIALS
4
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
12
%
13
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
Towards the end of the month Abbott Labs (+9%)
announced a new coronavirus test. The company plans to
sell the test for $5 and it can produce results in 15 minutes.
The test is portable and suitable for settings such as doctor’s
offices or schools. Abbott shares rose +8% on the news.
Signature Bank (-5%) fell with the broader banking sector.
The KBW US Bank Index is down 31% year-to-date,
compared to the S&P 500 which is up 8%. The reasons for the
underperformance of banking stocks include COVID-19 related
credit losses and a difficult operating environment due to the
recent drop in interest rates. We expect Signature Bank can
continue to grow despite the tough operating environment as
the bank captures market share by hiring banking teams away
from other banks and expands on the West Coast of the US.
Exits
During the month we exited our position in Zoetis, the global
leader in animal health medicines and vaccines. We added
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
Zoetis to the portfolio in 2016 and since then the company has
successfully launched a number of blockbuster pharmaceutical
products, grown sales rapidly and streamlined its operations.
This has resulted in a near doubling of Zoetis’s earnings and a
materially higher share price. Our investment thesis has played
out, Zoetis’s valuation now looks stretched, and we would
rather reinvest the proceeds elsewhere in the portfolio.
3
AUGUST’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.
HILTON WORLDWIDE
HOLDINGS
+20
%
MASTERCARD
+16
%
FACEBOOK
+16
%
ALIBABA GROUP
+14
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 August 2020
FACEBOOK
8
%
ALIBABA
7
%
ALPHABET
7
%
MASTERCARD
5
%
PAYPAL
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 20 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.50
$
0.00
$
1.50
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
3.50
$
2.00
Nov
2018
$
2.50
Nov
2019
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 August 2020
PERFORMANCE to 31 August 2020
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+11.4%+26.1%+43.7%+28.2%+18.2%
Adjusted NAV Return+5.9%+9.7%+20.5%+16.9%+12.6%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +6.7%+11.8%+25.9%+20.7%+16.7%
Benchmark Index^+4.7%+8.4%+6.5%+7.4%+7.9%
^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
HEICO CORP
+14
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an authorised financial adviser
should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund
performance can and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August
2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted
to be paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends
received, interest income, investment gains
and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased
capital rather than a regular income stream have
the opportunity to participate in the company’s
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%
discount to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on
1 October 2007. As a result, dividends paid to
New Zealand tax resident shareholders have not
been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
» Shares held as treasury stock are available to be
re-issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 17 October 2019, a new issue of warrants (MLNWD)
was announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders and in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»Exercise Price = $0.94 per warrant, to be adjusted
down for dividends declared during the period up to the
Exercise Date
»Exercise Date = 6 November 2020
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form will be sent to warrant holders in
September 2020
MANAGEMENT
Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris
Waters and Harry Smith (Senior
Investment Analysts) have prime
responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together
they have significant combined
experience and are very capable
of researching and investing in
the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is
based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Manager has authority
delegated to it from the Board
to invest according to the
Management Agreement and
other written policies. The
Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Alistair
Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,
Andy Coupe; and Carmel
Fisher.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.