Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update19 October 2020MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 30 September 2020

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

FY2021 HYDRO GENERATION FORECAST

REDUCED DURING THE QUARTER DUE TO

CONTINUED LOW INFLOWS

RECORD Q1 OTAHUHU SPOT PRICES

AS NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE

BELOW AVERAGE

FY2022 FUTURES PRICES LIFT

ON MARKET SPECULATION REGARDING

TIWAI CONTINUING OPERATIONS

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

3,700GWh

RECORD

SPOT

PRICES

FUTURES

PRICES

RECOVER

>> COMMENTARY

HYDRO GENERATION DOWN ON RECORD LOW 12-MONTH INFLOWS; GEOTHERMAL GENERATION STABLE

Mercury's hydro generation in the first quarter of FY2021 was 142GWh below average

1

, decreasing by 170GWh to 1,044GWh. This

reflected continued drought conditions with the Lake Taupo catchment experiencing the lowest 12-month inflow sequence to 30

September

2

on record. Mercury announced during the quarter that its FY2021 hydro generation forecast reduced by 200GWh to

3,700GWh, more than 300GWh below average. Geothermal generation was stable versus the prior comparable period.

LOW INFLOWS LIFT SPOT PRICES; FY2022 FUTURES INCREASE ON SPECULATION AROUND TIWAI SMELTER EXIT TIMING

Dry hydrological conditions affected both North and South Islands resulting in national hydro storage tracking more than 500GWh

below average until late September before lifting due to South Island rainfall, ending the quarter at 172GWh below average. This was

reflected in the average spot price for the quarter reaching a record of $136/MWh at Otahuhu

3

, increasing from $125/MWh in the

prior comparable period. The FY2021 futures price also reflected current dry hydrological conditions, increasing from $114/MWh at

Otahuhu and $104/MWh at Benmore at the start of the quarter to $122/MWh and $111/MWh respectively.

Longer-term futures prices increased during the quarter as the market appeared to speculate on the likelihood of the Tiwai smelter

operation being extended beyond August 2021. FY2022 futures prices ended the quarter at $100/MWh at Otahuhu and $85/MWh

at Benmore after falling as low as $69/MWh and $51/MWh respectively during the quarter.

FOCUS ON CUSTOMER VALUE SEES INCREASED SALES YIELDS

Mercury's continued focus on customer value saw the average Commercial & Industrial sales yield (including both physical and

financial sales) increase by 8.6%, from $88/MWh in the prior comparable period to $96/MWh, with sales volumes increasing by

130GWh.

The sales yield in the Mass Market segment increased by 6.6% to $137/MWh with volumes decreasing by 60GWh to 832GWh.

Customer connections decreased by 6,000 across the quarter to 342,000, 19,000 lower compared to the end of FY2020-Q1.

DEMAND LOWER DUE TO REDUCED INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY

Demand decreased by 0.6% on a temperature-adjusted basis as industrial sector load (-1.2%) was affected by the shutdown of the

4

th

potline at the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter and reduced activity at the Marsden Point refinery. This was partially offset by

increased demand from the dairy sector (+0.4%) and irrigation (+0.1%) sectors. Demand from the urban (-0.1%), rural (+0.1%) and

other (+0.1%) sectors was flat.

1

For quarters ended 30 September since 1999

2

For 12-month periods ended 30 September since 1928

3

For quarters ended 30 September since 1991

342361
302319

4042

4647

VWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)

1,2571,240

2

832892

3

425348

6161

4

1,3181,301

5

843870

376323

6

467547

73198

1,7311,904

1,0441,214

7

687690

433299

6

433299

8

1.011.03

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

Excludes spot customer purchases

5

6

7

8

Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

96.88

128.80

103.19

Physical125.76119.87

Mass Market137.30

ELECTRICITY SALES

Commercial & Industrial

Network Losses

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

30 September 2020

Three months ended

30 September 2019

($/MWh)

Dual Fuel Customers

($/MWh)

South Island Customers

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000s ICPs)

North Island Customers

78.87

87.57

Spot Customer Purchases

84.07

141.79129.20

87.5282.14

119.70130.63

87.45

Other Sell CfDs

146.06120.77

Physical Purchases

Financial

Spot Settlement of CfDs

End User CfDs

Geothermal (consolidated)

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Physical

81.4397.48 Buy CfDs

126.95116.35

97.4881.43Financial

144.14127.00

123.15137.31

Hydro

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 September 2020 and 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 September 2019

Spot Settlement of CfDs

PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP

116.36127.85

Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

16%

29%

23%

19%

5%

8%

Financial Year Q1 2021

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

18%

32%

21%

17%

5%

7%

Financial Year Q1 2020

13%

87%

Financial Year Q1 2021

MERCURY

OTHER

14%

86%

Financial Year Q1 2020

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2020 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2021 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2020FY2021

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$111.93

$102.79

$101.00

$94.10

$93.85

$96.00

$114.01

$95.65

$92.56

$122.42

$100.14

$93.46

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

FY21FY22FY23

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2019AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 JUNE 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

$98.96

$91.80

$91.00

$78.63

$70.05

$67.23

$104.40

$79.83

$75.74

$111.22

$85.19

$78.14

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

FY21FY22FY23

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2019AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 JUNE 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEAR

Q1Q2Q3Q4

202112.3---

202012.316.719.514.4

201912.116.320.214.1

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

9,573

9,430

9,451

9,554

9,553

9,568

1,268

1,267

1,251

1,263

1,316

1,240

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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