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KFL – September 2020 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update21 October 2020KFLFinancials

1
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING THE

PORTFOLIO DURING THE QUARTER

Kingfish gained +3.7% (gross performance) for the quarter,

and the Adjusted NAV was up +3.3% for the period, while the

S&P/NZX50G benchmark index gained +2.6% for the same

period.

Permanent behaviour shifts - dynamic

companies will thrive

Charles Darwin said, “It is not the strongest of the species that

survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to

change”.

COVID-19 has accelerated behaviour shifts that were going to

happen anyway and many forced changes will likely not fully

unwind. In these unusually dynamic times, it is the dynamic

companies that will thrive.

Dynamically widening the moat

Mainfreight, Vista, Ryman and Summerset have doubled down

on putting the customer first.

Mainfreight has always been customer obsessed. And people

obsessed. Mainfreight retained all of its permanent people

and paid “discretionary” bonuses in-line with last year during

COVID-19. This commitment to staff helps make the company’s

people go the extra mile and deliver superior customer service.

On the flip side, some of their competitors are responding to

the crisis by cutting costs, which arguably may result in lower

customer service. And that is one of the reasons Mainfreight’s

market share is accelerating. The company doubled down on

attracting new customers, announcing new business worth $67

million for the first quarter of its new financial year.

Vista released a cinema re-opening software package to help

their customers re-open seamlessly. For example, the software

allows the cinema to easily allocate “socially distanced”

seating. Vista’s Movio business released Movio Cinema

Essentials which helps a cinema sequence the re-buildup of its

marketing budget. Consider Satya Nadella’s (Microsoft CEO)

comment: “As COVID-19 impacts every aspect of our work

and life, we have seen 2 years’ worth of digital transformation

in 2 months”. Movio is the only scale digital marketing solution

for the film industry.

SUMMERSET

GROUP

+ 40

%

MAINFREIGHT

+1 8

%

DELEGAT GROUP

+1 6

%

VISTA GROUP

+14

%

THE A2 MILK

COMPANY

- 24

%

Ryman and Summerset have always put the customer first.

But they went above and beyond to protect their vulnerable

elderly residents during COVID-19. Potential new residents’

children considered their parents as being more vulnerable

during COVID-19 and have sought out providers where they

have confidence in their safety protocols and are “good

enough for mum”. Interest levels and resales have increased

significantly following New Zealand’s move to less restrictive

COVID Alert Levels. This will likely accelerate penetration of

retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia and drive

market share gains for Summerset and Ryman.

Customers are unlikely to forget this customer obsession by

Mainfreight, Vista, Summerset and Ryman. This should help

make customers more loyal in the future and will likely widen

the moat.

Dynamically investing for growth

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s nasal high flow therapy is

becoming the global standard of care for COVID-19. The

product was primarily used in the intensive care units of

hospitals prior to COVID-19. During COVID-19 it has

increasingly been used in wards or in the emergency

department. Often, different doctors service these different

areas of the hospital and they are becoming increasingly

more confident in using the product after seeing the benefits.

This will potentially permanently change behaviour and mean

their product is more widely used.

F&P is investing ahead of this potential permanent behaviour

shift. Total manufacturing capacity is likely to grow 60-70%

over the next 2-3 years and the majority of that will be

focussed on the hospital sector and in particular on nasal high

flow and non-invasive ventilation. Manufacturing capacity in

these areas is likely to approximately double. This confidence

in the outlook potentially permanently accelerates the

penetration of the large 50 million patient market in the nasal

high flow market.

1

Share price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

1 July 2020 – 30 September 2020

KFL NAV

$

1.6 7

$

0.1 1

$

1.6 5

Share Price

Warrant PricePREMIUM

1

0.1

%


as at 30 September 2020

2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or

completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from an authorised

financial adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note

that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+4.4%+20.5%+17.2%

Adjusted NAV Return+3.3%+16.5%+16.6%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return +3.7%+19.6%+19.7%

S&P/NZX50G Index+2.6%+14.0%+16.0%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net

asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return

and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-

GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price

performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to

shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment

plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant

expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-

GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the

policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED COMPANIES

% Holding

Auckland Intl Airport7.0%

Contact Energy2.2%

Delegat Group4.1%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare15.4%

Freightways3.2%

Infratil11.7%

Mainfreight15.9%

Meridian Energy1.1%

Port of Tauranga2.6%

Pushpay Holdings2.4%

Ryman Healthcare6.2%

Summerset8.6%

The A2 Milk Company13.5%

Vista Group International3.9%

Equity Total97.8%

New Zealand dollar cash2.2%

TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY

as at 30 September 2020

COMPANY NEWS

Dividend Paid 25 September 2020

A dividend of 3.25 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders

on 25 September 2020 under the quarterly distribution policy.

Interest in Kingfish’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high

with 43% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to

DRP participants are at a 3% discount to market price. If you would

like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar,

Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

PERFORMANCE

as at 30 September 2020

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

Dynamically rolling with the punches

a2 Milk had a recent disappointing trading update where

revenue expectations were significantly downgraded. The

cause of the forecast reduction in earnings was a sharp

inventory destock in the daigou or “surrogate-shopper”

channel. This was primarily a result of the resurgence of

COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia and travel restrictions.

a2 Milk reacted to this set-back and restored the demand/

supply balance by launching promotions to drive demand

while simultaneously restricting supply.

It’s important to remember that the company has moved

into other channels - cross border ecommerce and mother

and baby stores (MBS) - which are performing ahead of

expectations. Market share in the large and underpenetrated

MBS channel accelerated from 2.0% to 2.2%.

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

16 October 2020

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.