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MLN – September 2020 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update21 October 2020MLNFinancials

1
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO DURING THE

QUARTER IN LOCAL CURRENCY

Marlin gained 8.6% (gross performance) for the quarter and the Adjusted

NAV was up 7.4% for the period, while the global benchmark gained

5.7% for the same period.

Global share markets continued to show strong momentum in the third

quarter, with a number of markets hitting new all-time highs during the

period. The flagship US S&P 500 Index climbed 8.5% for the quarter, the

MSCI China Index gained 11.7%, while the MSCI Europe Index was flat –

held back by a spike in Covid-19 cases in certain countries.

The quarter started strongly on the back of continued monetary stimulus

and improving economic data as economies continued to reopen.

However, markets pulled back in September, driven by uncertainty

surrounding further US fiscal stimulus and the US election outcome,

combined with rising Covid-19 case numbers as summer ends in the

Northern hemisphere.

Portfolio performance was helped by the new portfolio additions we

talked about in our last quarterly Newsletter, Starbucks, Floor and Décor,

Stoneco, Gartner, Hilton and Heico. We added these businesses to the

portfolio in the depths of the market sell-off and they accounted for over

half of the portfolio outperformance this quarter.

Adapting to a post-covid world

Covid-19 has impacted all businesses. Some have been hit hard, while

others have benefited from lockdowns and work from home trends. For

us it was a chance to see how the management teams of our portfolio

companies operated under pressure, how they adapted and made the

most of a difficult situation.

In our last quarterly update we talked about our technology holdings

Amazon and PayPal - who both benefited from the lockdown driven

surge in ecommerce activity. But we have been equally impressed by

the way that some of our more traditional companies, like Adidas, have

adapted to what have been significant headwinds in its industry.

Adidas is a company that could have suffered a really protracted impact

from Covid-19. With sporting goods stores closed around much of the

globe, sales slumped and inventory built up. In retail this typically results

in heavy discounts to clear excess stock – and given the global scale

and economic impact of the lockdowns – this had the potential to drag

on pricing for well over a year. Excessive discounting by brands also

poses the risk of long-term brand damage. Adidas have dealt with these

difficulties admirably and used the turbulence to further pivot their model

towards high margin online sales.

By adding flexibility into their supply chain in recent years they were able

to quickly scale down inventory purchases. Adidas’s outlet stores also

provided a very effective way of clearing excess stock without impacting

the brand and discounting excessively in their flagship stores. The

company was also able to hold onto its most popular products (like its

Ultra Boost running shoes) and sell these at full price on its own website

– allowing them to keep more of the profit margin on these highly sought

after products.

Adidas’s pivot to direct-to-consumer sales has also been helped by

Covid-19. Adidas has progressively been moving sales away from

wholesalers, such as Foot Locker, towards their direct-to-consumer

STONECO

+36

%

ALIBABA GROUP

+36

%

FLOOR & DÉCOR

HOLDINGS

+30

%

SIGNATURE

BANK

-22

%

HEXCEL CORP

-26

%

offering, of which ecommerce is a significant contributor. Covid-19 has

accelerated this shift with wholesalers having to shut their doors. Direct-

to-consumer sales are more profitable for Adidas compared to selling

shoes in bulk to the wholesale channel. The shift also allows Adidas

to own the consumer relationship and thereby drive deeper customer

connection and loyalty.

¹

Share price premium to NAV (including the warrant price on a pro-rated basis & using NAV to four decimal places)

as at 30 September 2020

1 July 2020 – 30 September 2020

MLN NAVWarrant Price

$

1. 0 8

$

0 .1 9

$

1.1 0

Share Price

PREMIUM

1

5.8

%


QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

Adidas’s ecommerce sales have increased

6-fold since 2015

Overall we are impressed by the actions management have taken in

response to the difficult environment. We believe the company is well

position for the future.

We have seen similar decisive actions at many of our other portfolio

companies. Starbucks pivoted to digital ordering, pick-up only stores

and drive thrus. Heico has used the disruption in the aerospace industry

to acquire smaller competitors. And Abbott Labs rapidly developed

a $5, 15 minute, Covid-19 test – and will very shortly be shipping 50

million units a month.

Stock performance and news

There were no major surprises during reporting season that materially

impacted our portfolio companies in the quarter. Alibaba (+36%),

Stoneco (+36%) and Adidas (+18%) were some of the biggest positive

contributors to performance, while Signature Bank (-22%) and Hexcel

(-26%) were the biggest detractors.

Alibaba gained during the quarter following strong financial results that

showed its ecommerce business has returned to pre-covid growth rates.

Excitement around the upcoming IPO of Ant Group (which it owns 33%

of) also supported the stock. Ant Group is the largest digital payments

and financial technology company in China and is rumoured to be listing

at a valuation north of US$200 billion. Alibaba was also buoyed by its

annual investor day – which highlighted the significant growth opportunity

remaining for its ecommerce and cloud businesses.

Hexcel makes carbon fibre composites for aircraft and has unsurprisingly
been a poor performer of late. With air-travel grinding to a halt and

airlines struggling financially, orders for new aircraft are being deferred or

cancelled. In response, Airbus and Boeing have cut aircraft production

rates by up to half, resulting in lower demand for Hexcel’s products. We

still see long-term drivers for both increased air travel and higher carbon

fibre content, but recognise it will take a number of years for travel and

new plane demand to get back to prior levels. In the meantime, Hexcel is

carefully managing its cost base to reflect this lower demand. We believe

the company is attractively priced following the sharp decline in its share

price and the company will be in a strong position when growth eventually

returns to the aerospace industry.

PERFORMANCE

as at 30 September 2020

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The

information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity brief.

The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited

and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not

intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment

decisions. Professional financial advice from an authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an

investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global

Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results

may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

Headquarters Company%

Holding

Canada

Descartes Systems 0.5%

China

Alibaba Group7.9%

Tencent Holdings5.0%

France

EssilorLuxottica3.0%

Germany

Adidas4.4%

Ireland

Icon3.8%

United States

Abbott Laboratories4.3%


Alphabet6.7%

Amazon.Com4.6%


Dollar General3.7%

Dollar Tree3.6%


Edwards Lifesciences Corp.4.0%

Facebook7.4%

Floor & Décor Holdings1.7%

Gartner Inc3.4%

HEICO Corporation2.2%

Hexcel Corporation2.4%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings3.8%

Mastercard5.3%

PayPal Holdings5.3%

Signature Bank4.3%

Starbucks Corp1.8%

StoneCo4.1%

TJX Companies Inc3.6%

Tyler Technologies Inc 1.2%

Equity Total98.0%

New Zealand dollar cash1.2%

Total foreign cash1.4%

Cash Total2.6%

Forward Foreign Exchange(0.6%)


TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS

SUMMARY

as at 30 September 2020

COMPANY NEWS

Stoneco benefited from solid financial results during the quarter, emerging

markets strength, and the announcement of its intention to acquire

Brazilian software company Linx. The payment services provider reported

strong growth in payment volumes in the second quarter, despite covid-

related store closures in Brazil and a weak retail environment. Stoneco’s

ecommerce capabilities and market share gains from the bank-owned

incumbents helped offset the market weakness. Linx is the leading retail

ERP and PoS software provider in Brazil and the acquisition will allow

Stoneco to cross-sell its payments and banking solutions to Linx’s clients.

Signature Bank fell with the broader regional banking sector in the US,

with the KBW Regional Banking Index down 11% during the quarter. The

reasons for the underperformance of banking stocks include Covid-19

related credit losses and a difficult operating environment due to the

recent drop in interest rates. Signature Bank’s concentration in the New

York region also weighed on the company, with the New York economy

reopening more slowly than most states. We expect Signature Bank can

continue to grow despite the tough operating environment as the bank

captures market share by hiring banking teams away from other banks and

expands on the West Coast of the US.

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Ltd

16 October 2020

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at enquire@marlin.co.nz

Dividend Paid 25 September 2020

A dividend of 2.06 cents per share was paid to Marlin

shareholders on 25 September 2020, under the quarterly

distribution policy. Interest in Marlin’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP) remains high with 40% of shareholders participating in the

plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount to

market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please

contact our share registrar, Computershare on 09 488 8777.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return+16.1%+25.1%+16.8%

Adjusted NAV Return +7.4%+15.7%+12.7%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return+8.6%+19.2%+16.7%

Benchmark Index¹+5.7%+6.0%+8.7%

1

Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small

Cap Index (hedged 50% to NZD) from 1 October 2015

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance

return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and

currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price

performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to

shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan,

and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder

return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP measures are

described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.

co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.