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Global Dairy Update October 2020

Operational Update29 October 2020FSFConsumer Staples

• Fonterra agrees to sell China farms.
• Measuring greenhouse gas emissions farm by farm.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand production in line with last

season. Favourable start to Australia’s new

season. US monthly production increases,

EU softens.

• US and EU exports continue to increase.

Significant increase in New Zealand and

Australia monthly exports.

• Latin America monthly imports decline.

Middle East and Africa, China and Asia

imports increase.

• Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collection

reached 314 million kgMS which accounts

for around 20% of forecast total

season production.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for

September increased 1.3% compared to last

season, to 10.9 million kgMS.

• New Zealand's first plant-based milk bottle.

Key Dates

5 November 2020

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

9 November 2020

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

4 December 2020

FY21 Q1 Business Update

20 April 2021

Compliance Date for

2020/21 Season

OCTOBER 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

2.33.51.6

1.40.11.7

0.1

0.1

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand production

in line with last season.

Favourable start to

Australia’s new season.

US monthly production

increases, EU softens

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased 1.6%

on a litres basis in September

compared to September

last year.

Following a favourable

start to the season, milk

production growth has eased

in September as a result of

dry weather across most of

the North Island and a cold

snap in the South Island.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to September was 0.1%

higher than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for September, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production increased

3.5% in August compared to

August last year.

Milk production is increasing

as most regions have

benefitted from rain, despite

parts of Queensland starting

to dry and more moisture

is needed.

Dairy Australia has forecast

a 1% to 3% increase

in production for the

2020/21 season.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to August was

1.4% higher than last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

September, see page 5

for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

0.1% in August compared to

the same period last year.

The modest increase in

production was led by Poland

(up 2%) and Ireland (2.9%)

but largely offset by declines

from key producing countries

such as the Netherlands

(down 1.5%), Germany

(0.8%), France (0.9%)

and UK (0.9%) as a result

of heatwaves impacting

milk collections.

EU milk production for the 12

months to August was down

by 0.1% compared to the

same period last year.

US milk production

increased by 2.3% in

September, compared to the

same period last year.

Stronger milk per cow and

recovering herd sizes are

driving the higher US milk

production in September.

Milk production for the 12

months to September was

1.7% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

US and EU exports continue

to increase. Significant

increase in New Zealand and

Australia monthly exports

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 13.8%,

or 17,973 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

Exports increased in August,

driven mainly by higher

WMP shipments to China,

up 15,599 MT, and cheese

to Japan and China, up

4,737  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were down by

1.2%, or 40,505 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by SMP, fluid milk products,

infant formula and AMF but

offset by increases in WMP.

EU (including UK)

dairy exports increased

by 10.8%, or 54,391 MT, in

July compared to the same

period last year.

This was driven by

increases across most

product categories but

more specifically, fluid milk

products and whey to China,

cheese to Japan, and WMP

to Algeria.

Exports for the 12 months

to July were up 6.1%, or

335,963 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Butter,

cheese, fluid milk products

and whey were the main

drivers of this growth, up a

combined 323,682 MT. This

was partially offset by a

decline in SMP of 77,443  MT.

US dairy exports

increased 14.7%, or 21,372  MT,

in August compared to the

same period last year.

Exports continue to grow for

the 12th consecutive month,

with large volumes of SMP

to South East Asia, cheese to

Mexico, and whey to China as

China rebuilds its inventory

levels and hog herds following

last year’s African swine flu.

Exports for the 12 months to

August 2020 were up 12.2%,

or 271,027 MT, on the previous

comparable period, driven by

SMP, WPC and lactose, up a

combined 240,622  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 32.6%, or

16,720 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven

by fluid milk products, SMP

and cheese to China, up a

combined 15,222  MT.

Exports for the 12 months to

August were down 5.8%, or

45,323 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with infant formula,

SMP, WMP, cheese, and whey

down a combined 53,555  MT,

and partially offset by fluid

milk products, up 11,922  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

14.732.613.8

5.86.112.2

10.8

1.2

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Latin America monthly

imports decline. Middle East

and Africa, China and Asia

imports increase

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

26.4%, or 42,993 MT, in July

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven

by lower volumes of SMP

to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

July 2020 were down 4.2%,

or 74,752 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year.

Decreases were driven

primarily by WMP, infant

formula, SMP and butter,

down a combined 66,863  MT.

Asia (excluding China

)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 1.7%, or 7,139 MT,

in July compared to the

same

period last year. Increases

were recorded primarily in

SM

P to South East Asia,

l

actose to India and the

Philippines, up a combined

24,873 MT, and partially offset

by lower imports of WMP

a

nd whey.

I

mports for the 12 months

to July were down 3.8%, or

193,180 MT, compared to the

sa me period the previous year.

D

ecreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP, fluid

products, down a combined

228, 306 MT, and offset

partially by increased volumes

of lactose, up 46,394 MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 10.1%, or 28,764 MT

in July 2020 compared to

the same period last year.

Increases were driven

principally by higher volumes

of WMP to Algeria and SMP

to Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia,

up a combined 39,653  MT,

and partially offset by

lower volumes of fluid milk

products and infant formula.

Imports for the 12 months to

July 2020 were down 7.5%, or

300,703 MT, compared to July

last year, driven by decreases

in fluid milk products,

infant formula, butter and

cheese, down a combined

424,952 MT, and offset by

increases in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased by 7.8%,

or 20,619 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was the result

of higher volumes of fluid

milk products and whey, up a

combined 32,226 MT. China

is working towards rebuilding

its hog herds and hence

increasing its whey imports

for feed consumption. WMP

imports continued to decline,

likely due to high levels

of inventories.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 8.3%,

or 252,529 MT, driven by

fluid milk products, whey

and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

%

%

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for July 2020

compared to July 2019

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

Change for the 12 months

to July 2020

7.8

1.726.4

3.87.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

8.3

10.1

4.2

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%

%%

%%

Season to date

1 July to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Season to date

1 June to 30 September

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

1.31.01.20.4

0.30.82.01.6

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection was 10.9 million

kgMS, a 1.3% increase on

September last season.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the three months

to 30 September reached

23.2 million kgMS, flat on the

same period last season.

The La Niña weather system

is delivering wetter and cooler

conditions, and this is starting

to hamper pasture production,

silage and fodder harvest.

However, the La Niña is also

delivering a much needed

recovery in soil moisture

profiles and water storage.

North Island milk

collection in September was

113.5 million kgMS, up 1.2% on

last September.

Season-to-date collection was

215.1 million kgMS, up 2.0% on

last season

Overall, North Island

production for the month

and season-to

-

date remained

ahead of the prior season.

The upper North Island was

classified as extremely dry

with less than half of normal

rainfall for September.

South Island milk collection

in September was 66.3 million

kgMS, down 1.0% on

September last season.

Season-to-date collection was

99.3  million kgMS, up 0.8% on

last season.

Heavy snowfall in the last

few days of September

hampered collection across

the Southland/Otago region

and this is reflected in the

decrease in September

South Island collections.

Fonter

ra's New Zealand

collection for September was

179.8  million kgMS, up 0.4%

on

last September.

S

eason-to-date collection to

the end of September was

314.4  million kgMS, up 1.6% on

the same point last season.

September milk production

is largely in line with the

prior season, reflecting

the good early season

conditions this year, partially

offset by the impact of late

S

eptember snow in the lower

South Island.

Conditions became

in

creasingly dry across the

m

onth, particularly in the

northern and eastern regions

of both islands. Production has

begun to flatten in October as

a

result of the continuation of

these dry conditions.

%

%

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

OCT  MAY 

OCT 

DEC 

MAR MAY AUG OCT DEC  MAR 

AUG 





, 

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

Global economies, including

New Zealand, continued to

recover from the considerable

collapse experienced as a

result of COVID-19 and the

implementation of associated

lockdown measures. This return

toward economic normality

resulted in relative stability for

the NZD and financial markets.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

20 October 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 3 November 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

0.3

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,179

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

33.9

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,803/MT

2.9

CHEDDAR

USD 2,872/MT

0.5

SMP

USD 3,037/MT

0.1

WMP

USD 4,110/MT

0.5

AMF

USD 3,678/MT

3.3

BUTTER

33,926

MT

LATEST AUCTION

198,525

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra agrees to sell

China farms

Fonterra has agreed to

sell its China farms for

a total of $555 million

(RMB 2.5 billion¹), after

successfully developing

the farms alongside

local partners.

Inner Mongolia Natural

Dairy Co., Ltd, a subsidiary of

China Youran Dairy Group

Limited (Youran), has agreed

to purchase Fonterra’s

two farming-hubs in Ying

and Yutian for $513 million

(RMB 2.31 billion¹).

Separately, Fonterra has

agreed to sell its 85%

interest in its Hangu farm

to Beijing Sanyuan Venture

Capital Co., Ltd. (Sanyuan),

for $42 million (RMB

190 million¹). Sanyuan has a

15% minority shareholding

in the farm and exercised

their right of first refusal to

purchase Fonterra’s interest.

CEO Miles Hurrell says

in building the farms,

Fonterra has demonstrated

its commitment to the

development of the Chinese

dairy industry.

“We’ve worked closely

with local players, sharing

our expertise in farming

techniques and animal

husbandry, and contributed

to the growth of the industry.

“We don’t shy away from

the fact that establishing

farms from scratch in China

has been challenging, but

our team has successfully

developed productive

model farms, supplying high

quality fresh milk to the

local consumer market. It’s

now time to pass the baton

to Youran and Sanyuan to

continue the development of

these farms.”

Mr Hurrell says the sale

of the farms will allow the

Co-op to prioritise the areas

of its business where it has

competitive advantages.

“For the last 18 months,

we have been reviewing

every part of the business

to ensure our assets and

investments meet the needs

of the Co-op today. Selling

the farms is in line with our

decision to focus on our

New Zealand farmers’ milk.

“China remains one of

Fonterra’s most important

strategic markets, receiving

around a quarter of our

production. Selling the farms

will allow us to focus even

more on strengthening our

Foodservice, Consumer

Brands and Ingredients

businesses in China.

“We will do this by

bringing the goodness of

New Zealand milk to Chinese

customers in innovative

ways and continuing to

partner with local Chinese

companies to do so. Our

investment in R&D and

application centres in China

will support this direction,”

says Mr Hurrell.

Completion of the sale,

which is subject to anti-

trust clearance and other

regulatory approvals in

China, is expected to occur

within this financial year.

As previously announced,

through the sale process and

strategic review of our China

Farms we gained additional

information and further

insights and, as a result,

revised down the valuation

of these assets.

The transaction value

is subject to customary

purchase price adjustments,

and exchange rate

movements. Any gains or

losses on the sale would be

normalised upon completion

of the sale².

Fonterra expects to use the

cash proceeds from the two

transactions to pay down

debt, as part of its previously

announced overall debt

reduction programme.

1 Based on an RMB to NZD conversion rate of 4.5.

2 The announced forecast earnings will continue to reflect only the underlying performance of the business.

8
Our Performance

Measuring greenhouse

gas emissions,

farm by farm

They’re hot off the press and

intended to help take the

heat out of climate change.

Fonterra farmers are already

among the world’s most

sustainable producers

of milk and now have an

additional tool in their

sustainability toolbox.

Over the last few days,

Fonterra farmers have

been receiving unique

Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

emissions profiles for their

farms – the first time such

a tool has been introduced

in New Zealand at scale.

The profiles form part of

a Farm Environmental

Report – which combines a

GHG Report and Nitrogen

Risk Scorecard.

Fonterra Director

On-Farm Excellence,

Charlotte Rutherford, says

the reports are designed

to provide useful insights

for farmers to help

identify opportunities for

improvements on farm –

providing indicators such

as the estimated level of

biological methane and

nitrous oxide emissions per

hectare, and the amount of

emissions per kilogram of

milk solids.

“One of the most important

steps in improving your

emissions profile is

understanding where your

emissions come from, and

that’s what this report does.

“As well as being a very

practical step toward helping

New Zealand meet climate

change commitments,

the Environmental Report

supports our strategy to

meet growing global demand

for food that’s kind to

the planet.

“New Zealand milk is already

among the most sustainably

produced in the world, but

with increasing customer

and consumer motivation

linked to climate change,

we need to ensure we’re

continuing to position

ourselves for the future –

from both a regulatory and

market perspective.

“Today 81% of consumers

feel strongly that companies

should help improve

the environment¹. Our

customers are responding

to this by setting some

bold goals to reduce their

emissions profile over the

coming years and there’s an

opportunity for farmers to

support them. For example,

Nestlé has a target for net

zero emissions by 2050 and

Starbucks aims to reduce

carbon emissions by 50% by

2030,” says Charlotte.

Once the reports are in

farmers’ hands, the focus

will turn to implementing

practical and sensible

solutions to help

reduce emissions.

South Wairarapa Farmer

Aidan Bichan is one of

around 100 farmers who

took part in the original

pilot in 2018. Aidan runs

a 900-cow dairy farm

near Featherston and says

knowing his farm emissions

profile prompted his team

to make some practical

changes, including halving

the amount of nitrogen

fertilizer applied on farm.

“It hasn’t really impacted

production because we’re

getting more efficient use of

that nitrogen. We’ve changed

the timing and the rate of

application, and we’re a lot

more careful about how we

use it.”

1 https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/report/2018/the-education-of-the-sustainable-mindset (Nielson).

Our Co-op
9

New Zealand’s first

plant-based milk bottle

Anchor™ has added to its

Blue range, with a new

plant-based 2L bottle. It’s

made from sugarcane, which

is natural, renewable and

sustainably-sourced and a

great alternative to bottles

made from non-renewable

sources like fossil fuels.

The benefits continue –

sugarcane captures CO₂

from the atmosphere as it

grows, resulting in a bottle

that also has a low carbon

footprint – around 85% less

climate change impact in

terms of CO₂ than one made

using fossil fuels.

The sugarcane is made into

plant-based HDPE plastic in

Brazil and the bottle itself

is made in New Zealand.

The plant-based milk

bottle is 100% kerbside

recyclable, which aligns with

Fonterra’s commitment to

have all packaging reusable,

recyclable or compostable

by 2025.

According to research from

the Sustainable Business

Council, 71% of Kiwis are

actively researching the

sustainability practices of

brands before making a

product purchase. We know

sustainability is important

to New Zealanders and we

want to give consumers

an option to make change

for good.

The plant-based bottle

follows hot on the heels

of Anchor™’s launch of

Simply Milk in July, which

is New Zealand’s first

carbonzero milk.

This plant-based milk

bottle is also an important

component in the

Co-operative’s wider

sustainability strategy. We

have committed to moving

towards renewable energy in

transport and manufacturing

and finding ways to manage

and reduce our emissions

over the whole supply chain.

Research into the new

bottle shows that people

are looking for products that

are sustainably produced

and they liked the plant-

based bottle concept versus

traditional fossil fuel based

plastic alternatives.

Anchor™ has been part of

New Zealand communities

for 134 years and during this

time it has innovated with a

range of different milks and

new packaging that respond

to changing consumer needs.

Initially the new plant-based

milk bottle is available in

supermarkets, dairies and

convenience stores and

cafes across New Zealand’s

North Island – with a view

to expand distribution and

product ranging based on

consumer response.

An independent life cycle

assessment of the bottle

has also concluded this

plant-based plastic HDPE

also has a lower carbon

footprint than conventional

fossil fuel-based HDPE,

which most plastic milk

bottles in New Zealand are

made from.

To verify our sustainability

claims and help make

this information more

accessible and transparent

to consumers, each Anchor™

plant-based bottle will

have a unique QR code,

that will take consumers

to the Provenance.org

platform, a market leader in

supply chain transparency.

Here, consumers can see

the story and the facts

behind our plant based

bottle and broader

sustainability initiatives.

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV  OCT  SEP  MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT 

MT s

















AVERAGE

10


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to August; New Zealand and US to September.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to July; New Zealand, Australia and US to August.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to July; China to August.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV DEC JUN

,


,

,


,


,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

SEPTEMBER

2020

SEPTEMBER


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

179.8179.10.4%314.4309.41.6%

North Island113.5112.11.2%215.1210.92.0%

South Island66.366.9(1.0%)99.398.50.8%

Australia10.910.81.3%23.223.20.3%

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(20 OCTOBER 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

33,926198,525

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(10.8%)(8.7%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,1793,088

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(5.2%)(6.7%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

0.3%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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