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Fonterra provides Q1 performance and Milk Price update

Quarterly Update3 December 2020FSFConsumer Staples

4 December 2020

Fonterra provides update on its forecast Farmgate Milk Price range and first quarter performance


Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today narrowed its 2020/21 forecast Farmgate Milk Price range,

reported a solid start to the 2021 financial year and reconfirmed its forecast earnings guidance.


Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell says as a result of strong demand for New Zealand dairy, the Co-op has

narrowed and lifted the bottom end of the forecast Farmgate Milk Price range from NZD $6.30 - $7.30 per

kgMS to NZD $6.70 - $7.30 per kgMS.


“This means the midpoint of the range, which farmers are paid off, has increased to NZD $7.00 per kgMS.


“China is continuing to recover well from COVID-19 and this is reflected in recent Global Dairy Trade (GDT)

auctions with strong demand from Chinese buyers, especially for Whole Milk Powder, which is a key driver

of the milk price.


“The impact of COVID-19 continues to play out globally, and we continue to have a watchful eye on the

increasing Northern Hemisphere milk production and New Zealand dollar.


“However, we have contracted a good proportion of our sales book for this time of the season, which has

given us the confidence to narrow and lift the bottom end of the forecast Farmgate Milk Price range.


“Our forecasts would see the Co-op contribute around NZD $10.5 billion to the New Zealand economy this

year.”


First quarter business update


Mr Hurrell says the Co-operative has continued to make progress on implementing its strategy and had a

solid start to the first quarter, delivering total Group normalised Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) of

NZD $250 million, up NZD $72 million on last year.


“Despite ongoing market disruptions from COVID-19, we are continuing to build on the momentum achieved

in the last financial year and this can be seen in the progress we are making against our 2021 priorities:


• Our Co-operative, which is about supporting farmers and employees;

• Performance, which is about hitting our financial targets; and

• Community, which is about exceeding customer expectations, supporting communities through our

nutrition programmes and making our low carbon farming model a powerful point of differentiation.

Fonterra Co-operative Group
Page 2



“These priorities are helping us take another step this year towards our goals of Healthy People, Healthy

Environment and Healthy Business.”


From a performance perspective, Mr Hurrell says he is pleased with the progress the Co-op has made in

the first quarter.


“Sales volumes are in line with the same period last year, which was before we felt the impact of COVID-

19. This reflects strong demand for dairy and careful management of our supply chain.


“We’ve seen improvements right across our business, which has resulted in a 40% increase in our

normalised earnings. There’s been a couple of exceptions to this – Europe, which has been impacted by

higher costs, and Africa, which has been impacted by lower volumes as we have shifted product to meet

strong demand across Asia.


“Our Greater China Foodservice business has been the stand-out performer so far as demand for dairy in

China continued to recover strongly from COVID-19.


“We expanded our Foodservice business into another 13 cities in China, bringing the total number of cities

we operate in to more than 360.


“And our teams are helping to drive demand by continuously releasing new innovative ways of using our

products in local cuisine as they pursue the next big food trend in China.


“Demand in our Southeast Asia (SEA) Consumer business has improved year-on-year, while our SEA

Foodservice business has started to recover as COVID-19 restrictions eased in some markets.”


Mr Hurrell says the Co-op remains focused on financial discipline and reducing debt.


“We continue to divest non-core assets with the announcement that we’ve agreed to sell our China Farms

for NZD $555 million, which will further reduce debt.


“The sale of this asset reinforces our strategy of prioritising New Zealand milk.”


Fonterra’s reported EBIT was down NZD $31 million on last year to NZD $235 million mainly due to the

one-off gain on sale of foodspring® which occurred in the first quarter of last year.


Commenting on the Co-op’s progress against its other priorities for the year, Mr Hurrell says Fonterra has

made tangible progress against its environmental targets and on supporting employees, customers and

communities. Some initiatives include:


• Supporting the NZ Government’s skills initiatives by increasing the number of apprenticeship roles

in engineering and dairy processing over the next two years and working to double the number of

on-the-job training hours we provide our employees by 2025.

• Accelerating demand for our Foodservice products in the US by partnering with Land O’Lakes, which

will give us access to a larger customer base.

• Working with more Fonterra farms in New Zealand to develop Farm Environment Plans and we’re

well on the way to our target of 100% by 2025.

• Installing solar panels at two of our sites in Malaysia and Indonesia, which will power up to a quarter

of the sites’ energy needs.

• Launching the Anchor plant-based bottle as part of our goal to have all packaging reusable,

recyclable or compostable by 2025.

Fonterra Co-operative Group
Page 3



Outlook


Commenting on the outlook for the rest of the year, Mr Hurrell says the Co-operative is confident in its

performance and is on track to deliver on its earnings guidance.


“However, there are still a number of risks we are keeping a close eye on and for this reason we have made

the decision to maintain our current forecast earnings range.


“COVID-19 related challenges remain, including how the global recession and new waves of the virus will

impact cust

omer demand, and there is some congestion in global supply chains that we are actively

managing. There is also continued uncertainty around what could happen to the price difference between

the products that determine our milk price and the rest of our product range in the second half of the year.


“We will continue to monitor the situation and, as the year progresses and we have more certainty, we would

expect the forecast earnings range to narrow.”



-ENDS-


For further information contact:


Fonterra Communications

24-hour media line

Phone: +64 21 507 072

---

Fonterra
2020/21 Quarter One Update

4 December 2020

2
Important information

Disclaimer

Thispresentationmaycontainforward-lookingstatementsandprojections. Therecanbenocertaintyofoutcomein

relationtothematterstowhichtheforward-lookingstatementsandprojectionsrelate.Theseforward-looking

statementsandprojectionsinvolveknownandunknownrisks,uncertainties,assumptionsandotherimportantfactors

thatcouldcausetheactualoutcomestobemateriallydifferentfromtheeventsorresultsexpressedorimpliedbysuch

statementsandprojections. Thoserisks,uncertainties,assumptionsandotherimportantfactorsarenotallwithinthe

controlofFonterraCo-operativeGroupLimited(Fonterra)anditssubsidiaries(theFonterraGroup)andcannotbe

predictedbytheFonterraGroup.

Whileallreasonablecarehasbeentakeninthepreparationofthispresentation,noneofFonterraoranyofits

respectivesubsidiaries,affiliatesandassociatedcompanies(oranyoftheirrespectiveofficers,employeesoragents)

(RelevantPersons)makesanyrepresentation,assuranceorguaranteeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofany

informationinthispresentationorlikelihoodoffulfilmentofanyforward-lookingstatementorprojectionorany

outcomesexpressedorimpliedinanyforward-lookingstatementorprojection.Theforward-lookingstatementsand

projectionsin thisreportreflectviewsheldonlyat thedateofthispresentation.

Statementsaboutpastperformancearenotnecessarilyindicativeof futureperformance.

ExceptasrequiredbyapplicablelaworanyapplicableListingRules,theRelevantPersonsdisclaimanyobligationor

undertakingto updateanyinformationin thispresentation.

Thispresentationdoesnotconstituteinvestmentadvice,oraninducement,recommendationoroffertobuyorsellany

securitiesin FonterraortheFonterraShareholders’Fund.

3
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

$6.70 -$7.30per kgMS

Total Group normalised EBIT¹

$250million$72m²

Forecast normalised earnings per share³

20c –35c

• Narrowed and lifted the lower end of forecast

Farmgate Milk Price range

• Normalised EBIT up on same time last year, which

was before we felt the impact of COVID-19

• Maintained forecast earnings per share range

• Uncertainty remains around future impact

of COVID-19

• Progressing on our environmental targets and a

continued focus on our people

2020/21 Quarter One update

Solid start to 2020/21 Financial Year

1.Total Group normalised EBIT includes Continuing and Discontinued Operations. Includes amounts attributable to

non-controlling interests.

2.FY20 Quarter One normalised EBIT restated to $178m due to change in timing of revenue recognition for sales to

distributor in Greater China.

3.Excludes amounts attributable to non-controlling interests.

4
Business performance

• Similar volumes sold reflecting continued strong

customer demand for dairy and careful management of

supply chain

• Increased Gross Profit due to improved margins and higher

volumes in Foodservice and Consumer in Greater China

and South East Asia

• Stable performance in Ingredients overall. Growth across

Asia offset by lower volumes in Africa and increased costs

in Europe

• Continued focus on operating expenses

• Total Group normalisedEBIT up 40%, or $72 million

• Good progress on sale of China Farms and continued sell

down of Beingmate

1.Figures presented are for Total Group, which includes Continuing and Discontinued Operations on a normalised

basis unless stated otherwis e

2.FY20 Quarter One restated due to change in timing of revenue recognition for sales to distributor in Greater China

3.Percentages as shown in table may not align to the calculation of percentages based on numbers in the table due

to rounding of figures

4.Consists of other operating income and expens es, which Includes net foreign exchange gains and losses, share of

profit or loss on equity accounted investees

5.Prior year Reported EBIT includes foodspring® gain on sale of $64 million. The difference between current year’s

NormalisedEBIT and Reported EBIT is Reported EBIT includes $(38) million revaluation of Beingmateholding and

$23 million preliminary estimate of China Farms gain on sale

million

¹

2020

²

2021%


³

Volume (‘000 MT)8318320%

Revenue ($)4,2384,181(1)%

Gross Profit ($)7477581%

Gross Margin (%)17.6%18.1%

Operating Expenses ($)(553)(523)5%

Other


($)(16)15-

Normalised EBIT ($)17825040%

Reported EBIT


($)266235(12)%

5
Expanded

China Foodservice

into 13 new cities

taking total to

363cities

Continuously releasing new

innovative ways of using our

products in local Chinese

cuisine, with 54released

this quarter

Partnering with

Land O’Lakes

to accelerate demand

for our Foodservice products

in the US using our IP

Strengthening our

balance sheet

China Farms’

sales agreement

Re-affirmed

A Band

Credit Rating¹

Healthy Business

1.S&P Global Ratings

6
Supporting our people

during COVID-19 remains

our number one priority

Supporting the NZ Government’s

skillsinitiatives by increasing the

number of apprenticeship roles in

engineering and dairy processing

over the next two years

Taking new approach

to community nutrition

programmes, growing

KickStartBreakfast and partnering

with NZ Food Network

Healthy People

7
Healthy Environment

All Fonterra farmers in NZ now have

access to unique farm greenhouse

gas emissions profiles

– the first time such a tool has been

introduced in NZ at scale

Installedsolar panels at 2 sites

in Malaysia and Indonesia,

which will power up to 25%

of the sites’ energy needs

Launched Anchor

plant-based bottle as part

of our goal to have all packaging

reusable, recyclable or compostable by

2025

8
2021 Outlook

•Narrowed and lifted the lower end of forecast Farmgate

Milk Price range to $6.70-$7.30 per kgMS

•Assumes no significant impact on product pricing

from global economic impact of COVID-19

•Strong demand from China partially offset by

increasing milk supply from key milk producing

regions and higher NZ dollar

•Maintained full year forecast normalised earnings per

share range of 20-35 cents

•Currently tracking above midpoint of range, but there

are a number of risks

•Uncertainty around future impact of COVID-19,

including impact on customer demand, supply

chain and macroeconomics

•Price relativities for the remainder of the

financial year

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

$6.70-$7.30

per kgMS

20 –35

cents per share

Forecast Earnings

9
Appendix

10
•Season to date collection, June – October,

was 527.5 million kgMS, up 0.5% on

last season

•Good early season conditions have

contributed to collections being slightly ahead

of last season

•Poor pasture quality impacted milk production

across parts of the country towards the end of

October and into early November

•Full season forecast remains at 1,525m

kgMS, up 0.5% on last season

Fonterra’s New Zealand milk collections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay

SeasonTotal Milk Solids

(kgMS)

Peak Day

Milk

2018/191,523m(up 1%)85m litres

2019/201,517m (down 0.4%)83m litres

2020/211,525m (up 0.5%)¹83m litres

Volume (m litres/day)

1. Current full season forecast

11
Key

financial

metrics for

2020/21

Quarter

One

¹

,

²

Sales Volume

(’000 MT)

Normalised

Revenue

Normalised

Gross Profit

Normalised

OPEX

Normalised

EBIT

Free

Cash Flow

621

636

656

552

523

20172018201920202021

Opex ($ million)

3.8

4.0

3.9

4.24.2

20172018201920202021

Revenue ($ billion)

841

660

641

746

758

20172018201920202021

Gross Profit ($ million)

252

72

21

178

250

20172018201920202021

EBIT ($ million)

(610)

(671)

(1,245)

(648)

(845)

20172018201920202021

Free Cash Flow ($ million)

930

805

783

831

832

20172018201920202021

Sales Volume ('000 MT)

1.Figures presented are for Total Group, which includes Continuing and Discontinued Operations on a normalised

basis unless stated otherwis e

2.FY20 and FY19 Quarter One restated due to change in timing of revenue recognition for sales to distributor in

Greater China

12
Segment reporting

•At our half year announcement we will include detailed segment reporting under the new customer-

led operating model

•To provide further performance insights and transparency, the new segment reporting will include

both geographical and product channel, that is Ingredients, Foodservice and Consumer

•We will provide restated 2019/20 Financial Year segment information to allow for comparison

13
FY21

FY20Q1 ActualFull Year Target

Healthy People

Total recordable injury frequency rate (TRIFR) per million work hours¹5.85.55.0

Female representation in senior leadership²29%30%

35%

Employee engagement4.07NA³Top Quartile

Farmer sentiment (Net Promoter Score for Fonterra in New Zealand)333210⁴

Healthy Environment

Number of farms with Farm Environment Plans (New Zealand)34%37%45%

Reduction in water used at sites in water-constrained regions versus FY18(3.1)%(1.2)%⁵

(10)%

Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing versus FY15(5.7)%(11.7)%⁵(10)%⁶

Solid waste to landfill (kilotonnes) below FY2015.93.0⁵13.1

Healthy Business

Fonterra % kgMS of New Zealand milk collected for the season ended 31May80%NA⁷80%

New Zealand Farmgate Milk Price (per kgMS)$7.14$6.70-$7.30⁸$5.90-$6.90⁸

Return on capital6.7%On track6% to 7%

Debt/EBITDA3.4xOn track3.0-3.5x

Gearing Ratio41.4%On track36 to 40%

Normalised earnings per share24cOn track20c to 35c

Board Statement of Intentions

1.Part of zero harm philos ophy which also includes target 0 serious harm/0 fatalities

2.Senior leadership defined as Band 14+

3.Employee engagement is measured through a company-wide survey. The FY21 survey will take place in Q3

4.The Net Promoter Score for Fonterra was (17) when the target was set

5.The Q1 position has been calculated utilising actual data where available or estimates

6.Assumes Te Awamutu conversion to wood pellet is completed for full use in FY21

7.Only available on an annual basis

8.Based on latest publicly announced Forecast Farmgate Milk Price

The Board Statement of Intentions sets out the Board’s intentions for the performance and operations of Fonterra for

FY21. In accordance with the Constitution of Fonterra, Fonterra is required to provide a regular overview to the

Fonterra Shareholders’ Council of actual achievements, compared with the targets set by the Board. The table below

provides an update as at Q1 of Fonterra’s performance against these targets.

14
Glossary

Gearing ratio

Gearing ratio is calculated as economic net interest-bearing

debt divided by total capital. Total capital is equity excluding

the hedge reserves, plus economic net interest-bearing debt

.

Debt/EBITDA

Debt to EBITDA is calculated as total borrowings, plus bank

overdraft, plus the effect of debt hedging, less a cash

allowance of 75% of cash and cash equivalents, divided by

normalised earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and

amortisation (normalised EBITDA) excluding share of

loss/profit of equity accounted investees and net foreign

exchange losses/gains. Both Debt and EBITDA are adjusted

to include amounts relating to businesses classified as held for

sale.

Normalised earnings per share (EPS)

Normalised earnings per share means normalised profit after

tax attributed to equity holders divided by the weighted

average number of shares for the period

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in New Zealand to Fonterraby

farmer shareholders.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the measure of the amount of fat and

protein in the milk supplied to Fonterra.

Season

New Zealand: A period of 12 months to 31 May in eachyear.

Australia: A period of 12 months to 30 June in eachyear.

Return on capital

Return on capital is calculated as normalised EBIT, less a

notional tax charge divided by capital employed including

brands, goodwill and equity accounted investments. Capital

employed is calculated as the average for the period of: net

assets excluding net interest-bearing debt and deferred tax

balances.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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