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Global Dairy Update November 2020

Operational Update3 December 2020FSFConsumer Staples

• First quarter business update.
Visit our website for

more details –

• Expanding our Foodservice reach in the US.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand production to end October

slightly ahead for the season. Australia

monthly production down. US and EU

monthly production increases.

• EU and US exports up, while New Zealand

and Australia exports decline.

• Strong growth in China imports and Middle

East and Africa and Asia monthly imports

increase. Latin America imports decline.

• Fonterra’s season-to-date New Zealand milk

collection reached 527 million kgMS at the end

of October, flat on the prior season.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for

October decreased 7.7% to 12.4 million kgMS,

compared to last season.

• Sustainability Report shows most encouraging progress

to date.

• The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published

on 29 January 2021.

Key Dates

December to February 2021

Application Period to

Supply Fonterra

March 2021

FY21 Interim Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Share Standard Compliance

Date for 2020/21 Season

NOVEMBER 2020

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

2.30.30.8

2.50.21.8

1.2

0.6

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand production to

end October slightly ahead

for the season. Australia

monthly production

down. US and EU monthly

production increases

New Zealand milk

production¹ increased

0.8% on a litres basis (up

0.3% on a milk solids basis)

in October compared to

October last year.

Milk production growth

slowed in October as dry

conditions affected soil

moisture levels, especially in

the North Island. Ongoing

challenging conditions

during November are having

an impact on grass quality.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to October was 0.6% higher

than last year.

Fonterra collections are

reported for October, see

page 5 for details.

Australia milk

production decreased

0.3% in October compared

to October last year.

Milk production slowed

in October as challenging

wetter than usual spring

conditions affected

regions such as Victoria

and Tasmania.

Dairy Australia has forecast

a 1% to 3% increase

in production for the

2020/21 season.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to October

was 2.5% higher than

last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported for

October, see page 5 for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

1.2% in September compared

to the same period last year,

the strongest production

growth since February

this year.

The increase in production

was observed across most

countries and notably

led by Poland (up 2.6%),

Spain (2.2%), Italy and

France (1.1% each).

EU milk production for the

12 months to September was

up by 0.2% compared to the

same period last year.

US milk production

increased by 2.3% in October

compared to the same

period last year.

Higher production volumes

in October were the result

of stronger milk yields

and rapidly growing herd

sizes combined with lower

culling rates.

Milk production for the 12

months to October was

1.8% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 is a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

EU and US exports up,

while New Zealand

and Australia

exports decline

Total New Zealand dairy

exports decreased by 0.4%,

or 815 MT, in September

compared to the same

period last year.

Fluid milk products, WMP

and SMP demand from

China remained strong,

increasing 5,587 MT

year-on-year, however this

was offset by decreases in

infant formula and cheese,

down a combined 6,953  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to September were down by

2.0%, or 68,493 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by SMP, fluid milk products,

infant formula and cheese

but offset by increases

in WMP.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports decreased by 3.7%,

or 17,724 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

This was driven by decreases

across most product

categories and more

specifically SMP and WMP

to Algeria and Nigeria but

partially offset by increases

in fluid milk products to

China and lactose to China

and New Zealand.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were up 4.6%, or

257,880 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Butter,

cheese, fluid milk products

and whey were the main

drivers of this growth, up

a combined 293,913  MT,

partially offset by a decline

in SMP.

US dairy exports

increased 4.4%, or 8,322  MT,

in September compared to

the same period last year.

Year-on-year exports

continued to grow for the

13th consecutive month,

primarily driven by increased

whey demand from China

attributable to recovering

hog herds, and cheese to the

Asia Pacific region. Although

SMP export volumes declined

to Mexico, they increased to

South East Asia.

Exports for the 12 months to

September 2020 were up

12.3%, or 273,366 MT on the

previous comparable period,

driven by SMP, WPC, whey

and lactose up a combined

258,474  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 13.5%, or

7,660 MT, in September

compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven by

increased demand for SMP

and fluid milk products, up

a combined 8,509 MT and

partially offset by decreases

in cheese and infant formula,

down a combined 3,530  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to September were down

4.5%, or 34,884 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with infant formula,

SMP, cheese, WMP, and

whey, down 42,857 MT and

partially offset by fluid milk

products, up 8,691  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

4.413.50.4

4.54.612.3

3.7

2.0

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

Strong growth in China

imports and Middle

East and Africa and

Asia monthly imports

increase. Latin America

imports decline

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ decreased

12.7%, or 18,901 MT, in August

compared to the same period

last year. This was driven

by lower volumes of SMP

to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months

to August 2020 were down

4.0% or 70,071 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year.

Decreases were driven

primarily by SMP infant

formula, WMP, and butter

down a combined 67,522  MT.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 2.1% or 8,041  MT,

in August compared to

the same period last year.

Increases were recorded for

whey and WMP to Vietnam

and Thailand, infant formula

and fluid milk products to

Philippines and partially offset

by declines in butter and SMP.

Imports for the 12 months to

August were down 3.5%, or

171,274 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP, fluid

products, down a combined

207,018 MT and offset

partially by increased volumes

in lactose, up 39,633  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

increased 15. 6% or 46,750 MT

in August 2020 compared

to the same period last

year. Increases were driven

principally by higher volumes

of SMP to Ethiopia and WMP

to Algeria, up a combined

42,613 MT, and partially offset

by lower volumes of infant

formula to Nigeria.

Imports for the 12 months

to August 2020 were

down 5.6%, or 222,447  MT,

compared to August last year,

driven by decreases in fluid

milk products, infant formula

and butter down a combined

356,235 MT and offset by

increases in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased by 24%

or 54,847 MT, in September

compared to the same

period last year.

Import volumes of fluid

milk products continued

to increase as milk drinks

consumption rose during the

pandemic (up 17,429 MT).

Germany, New Zealand,

Australia, Poland and France

were the top suppliers.

Whey was also up 15,663 MT

as China rebuilds its hog

herd and uses whey as feed.

SMP imports also increased

7,931 MT year-on-year.

Imports for the 12 months to

September were up 9.0% or

276,736 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products and WMP.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

%

%

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for September 2020

compared to September 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for August 2020

compared to August 2019

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2020

24.0

2.112.7

3.55.6

%

Change for the 12 months

to September 2020

9.0

15.6

4.0

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

%

Season to date

1 July to 31 October

Season to date

1 June to 31 October

Season to date

1 June to 31 October

Season to date

1 June to 31 October

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

7.72.40.11.0

2.50.71.20.5

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection was 12.4 million

kgMS, a 7.7% decrease on

October last season. Widespread

rainfall has laid the foundation

for a very good season, but a La

Niña weather system delivering

wetter and cooler conditions,

impacted pasture availability.

This resulted in off-farm milk

supply reducing across Victoria

and Tasmania. Third-party

volumes were also lower

compared to October 2019 due

to reduced availability and an

active choice not to purchase,

given the focus on higher-

value products.

North Island milk collection

in October was 128.6 million

kgMS, down 0.1% on October

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 343.7 million kgMS, 1.2%

ahead of last season.

Soil moisture levels in the

northeast of the North Island,

and Taranaki were well below

normal for October, with

above average temperatures

for most of the North Island.

Rainfall provided relief from

low soil moisture levels in some

areas, lessening the impact

on collections.

South Island milk collection

in October was 84.5 million

kgMS, down 2.4% on October

last season.

Season-to-date collection was

183.8 million kgMS, down 0.7%

on last season.

South Canterbury and

coastal Otago also saw low

soil moisture levels, with the

impact lessened by availability

of irrigation in some areas,

and wetter conditions further

south. Otago and Southland

collections were impacted

by colder conditions that

accompanied the rain.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collection for October was

213.1 million kgMS, down

1.0% on October last season.

Season-to-date collection

to the end of October was

527.5 million kgMS, 0.5%

ahead of last season.

Poor grass condition from late

October to early November

impacted collections across

much of the North Island

and parts of the South

Island. Farmer response has

since seen production begin

to recover, which has been

assisted by recent rain.

%

%

%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2020/21 season

Forecast milk collection for the

2020/21 season

per

kgMS

6.70-

7. 3 0

1, 52 5

M

kgMS

Outlook

NZD

The inclusion of off-GDT

sales contributed

approximately four cents

per kgMS to the

Milk Price for the season

to 31 October 2020.

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

DEC  JUL 

DEC 

FEB APR JUL SEP DEC FEB 

APR 

SEP 





,

,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

ranged between 65.5 and 67.5

US cents for most of October

before climbing above 69

US cents in November as

uncertainty regarding the US

elections was all but removed,

and positive announcements

of COVID-19 vaccine

developments were released.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

1 December 2020:

The next trading event will be held on 15 December 2020. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

3.5

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

3,287

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

31.3

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,986/MT

3.9

BUTTER

USD 3,734/MT

2.6

CHEDDAR

USD 2,906/MT

3.3

SMP

USD 4,278/MT

2.5

AMF

USD 3,182/MT

4.8

WMP

31,264

MT

LATEST AUCTION

298,858

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Expanding our

foodservice reach in

the US

To accelerate demand for

its foodservice products

in the US, Fonterra has

entered a sales and

marketing agreement

with one of America’s

leading dairy co-operatives,

Land O’Lakes, Inc.

The arrangement will give

the Co-op opportunities

to expand the reach of

Fonterra’s foodservice

products into other US

foodservice outlets.

Fonterra’s Global Director

Foodservice, Paul Harvey,

says the US is not only the

largest dairy foodservice

market in the world, it’s also

the most competitive.

“Land O’Lakes works with

all major US national and

top regional foodservice

distributors and this will

help enable potential

national distribution of

Fonterra products.

“While Fonterra has been

in the US foodservice

market for a number of

years, breaking into it at

any great scale requires a

fresh approach. By working

with Land O’Lakes, we will

have access to a strong,

well-established distribution

network and their large

customer base.

With 2019 annual sales of

$14 billion, Land O'Lakes is

one of the nation's largest

co-operatives and operates

some of the most respected

brands in agribusiness

and food production

including Land O’Lakes

Dairy Foods, Purina Animal

Nutrition, WinField United

and Truterra. It also does

business in all 50 states and

more than 60 countries.

“A big part in securing

the partnership was our

reputation for developing

a range of innovative dairy

products, along with our

commitment to food safety

and quality, which gives

people confidence to choose

our products.

“Land O’Lakes will help us

distribute, promote and sell

our cooking creams and

cream cheese and, in the

future, we will look to expand

our relationship into other

categories such as cheese

products,” Paul Harvey adds.

“We are excited to leverage

the knowledge and expertise

our two co-operatives have

in dairy with a broader

portfolio of products

designed to help foodservice

operators make the most

of dairy in their kitchens,”

says Catherine Fox, Vice

President, Marketing,

Land O’Lakes Dairy Foods.

Greg Somerville,

Vice-President, Sales,

Land O’Lakes Dairy Foods,

added, “As a result of

COVID-19, performance

products in foodservice will

be of utmost importance to

operators. The Land O’Lakes

foodservice sales team is

looking forward to adding

Fonterra’s high-performance

products to our portfolio,

which will enable us to

provide an expanded

range of solutions to

existing and new segments

and operators.”

Paul says that, when Fonterra

launched its value-focused

strategy last year, it was

clear it would develop its

foodservice markets.

“We want to do this by

collaborating more with

like-minded partners,

leveraging our intellectual

property and skills, rather

than making significant

capital investments of our

own. This agreement with

Land O’Lakes is a great

example of this and one we

could look to apply in other

markets too.”

Our Co-op
8

Sustainability

Report shows most

encouraging progress

to date

Fonterra achieved its most

encouraging sustainability

results since starting its

annual reporting four years

ago, but the Co-op is staying

focused on what still needs

to be done to reach its

long-term targets.

“The progress we’ve made

this year towards our three

interconnected goals of

healthy people, a healthy

environment and a healthy

business show that our

strategy and customer-led

operating model are

delivering,” says CEO

Miles Hurrell, following the

release of Fonterra’s 2020

Sustainability Report.

“We’re proud of what our

people have achieved,

especially in the face of

COVID-19, and want to thank

farmers and employees for

their support and hard work.”

The report shows that

Fonterra improved all three

of its core environmental

metrics around greenhouse

gas (GHG) emissions,

water use and solid waste

to landfill for the first time

since launching its first

stand-alone Sustainability

Report in 2017, as well

as lifting its financial

performance and continuing

to support communities.

Among other highlights

in the report, Fonterra

has become the first dairy

company in New Zealand to

have its emission reduction

targets endorsed by the

UN-backed Science Based

Target initiative. This means

the Co-op’s 2030 target of

30% reduction in Scope 1

and 2 GHG emissions, which

are the emissions it directly

creates and those from the

energy it uses, has been

approved as being in line

with what the latest climate

science says is needed to

limit global warming to well

below 2°C.

“We take the best of what

New Zealand has to offer to

consumers around the world

through the unique quality

of our milk, so of course

we want to play our part in

helping the country meet

its climate commitments,”

says Mr  Hurrell.

“Our farmer owners have

a carbon footprint of

about one third of the

world average, and we’re

continuing to support

them to adapt to change.

Setting science-based

targets is important and

so is the concrete action

we’re taking today – like

providing farmers with

farm-specific emissions

profiles, which will help them

identify opportunities for

improvements, and switching

our Te Awamutu site to wood

pellets, which will reduce our

coal use by almost 10% .”

Increasing the energy

efficiency of existing assets

is also key. This year, the

Co-op hit its longest running

target of 20% reduction in

energy intensity across its

New Zealand manufacturing

sites between 2003 and

2020, which is enough

energy saved to power all the

households in Aotearoa for

1.5 years. As part of the plan

to reach a 30% reduction

in emissions by 2030,

and ultimately net zero

emissions by 2050, Fonterra

is developing site-specific

‘Greenprints’ that outline the

roadmap to decarbonisation.

The report also highlights

areas for improvement

including the need to

achieve better gender and

ethnic diversity at leadership

level and accelerate progress

towards key 2025 targets

such as having 100%

reusable, recyclable or

compostable packaging.

Global Sustainability Director

Carolyn Mortland says the

Sustainability Advisory Panel

provides a valuable external

lens as Fonterra works

towards these goals.

“Our Co-op’s focus is on

adopting regenerative

principles across the

business so that we’re

restoring and replenishing

rather than just protecting

and conserving. This will

take time, and we can’t do

it alone, but we need to get

it right to ensure a better

future for our business,

people, animals, natural

resources and taonga.”

Read the full

2020 Sustainability Report –

9
Our Co-op

2020

Sustainability

by the numbers

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV  OCT  SEP MAY 

MT s













AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT

MT s



 

 











AVERAGE

10


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to September; New Zealand, US and Australia to October.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to August; New Zealand, Australia and US to September.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to August; China to September.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

11


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

OCTOBER

2020

OCTOBER


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

213.1215.3(1.0%)527.5524.70.5%

North Island128.6128.7(0.1%)343.7339.61.2%

South Island84.586.6(2.4%)183.8185.1(0.7%)

Australia12.413.5(7.7%)35.736.6(2.5%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(1 DECEMBER 2020)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

31,264298,858

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(11. 1%)(8.6%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,2873,121

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

(6.0%)(7.5%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

3.5%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

12
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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