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Global Dairy Update January 2021

Operational Update28 January 2021FSFConsumer Staples

•Darfield site adds new shift to meet cream cheese demand.
1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

•December production in New Zealand flat

on last year. Australia monthly production

flat. US and EU monthly

production

increased relative to last year.

• New Zealand and Australia exports

increased in November. EU and US

monthly exports down.

•China imports continue to increas

e and

Latin America monthly imports also up.

Decline in Middle East and Africa and

Asia imports.

• Fonterra’s season-to-date New Zealand milk

collection reached 902.8 million kgMS at the

end of December

, down 0.7% on last season.

• Fonterra's Australia milk collection for

December increased 1.3% to 11.4 million kgMS,

but was down 2.2% for the season to date

relative to last season.

•Promising plantain trial looking g

ood for the planet.

Key Dates

28 February 2021

Final Date for Application to

Supply Fonterra

17 March 2021

FY21 Interim Results

Announcement

20 April 2021

Share Standard Compliance

Date for 2020/21 Season

May 2021

FY21 Q3 Business Update

JANUARY 2021

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for the 12 months

to December 2020

Change for the 12 months

to December 2020

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

3.10.00.7

3.00.82.1

1.1

0.4

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

December production in

New Zealand flat on last

year

. Australia monthly

production flat. US and EU

monthly production

increased relative to last year

New Zealand milk

production¹ was relatively

flat in December compared

to December last year

increasing 0.7% on a litres

b

asis (up 1.0% on a milk

soli

ds basis).

Following a 2.5% drop year-

o

n-year in November driven

by challenging weather

conditions, milk production

g

rowth has improved in

December as milder and

drier weather settled in.

New

Zealand milk

p

roduction for the 12 months

to December was also

relatively flat on last year at

0.4%

higher.

Fonterra collections are

reported for December, see

p

age 5 for details.

Australia milk

production was flat in


November compared to

N

ov ember 2019. Warm and

wet weather co ntinued to

i

mprove pasture growth

through spring though smaller

herds, a drop in fa rm numbers

an

d labour chall enges

impacted milk production

growth. Dairy Australia

expects milk pro duction to

track towards the lower end

of the current 2020/21 growth

range of 1-3%.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to November

wa

s 3.0% higher than

last year. Fonterra collections

in Australia are reported

for December, see page 5

for details.

EU (including UK) milk

production increased by

1.1 % in November compared

to the same period last year.

The increase in production

was observed across key

producing countries such

as Ireland (up 8.6%), Italy

(2.0%), UK (1.9%) and

Poland (1.5%). This increase

was partially offset by a

continuing decline in France

and Germany.

EU milk production for the

12 months to November was

up by 0.8% compared to the

same period last year.

US milk production

increased by 3.1% in

December compared to the

same period last year.

December saw continued

strong production volumes

as farmers drive higher milk

per cow yields and herd

sizes. There is some concern

that this sustained growth

rate will lead to pressure on

processing capacity during

spring peak.

Milk production for the

12 months to December was

2.1 % higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

Note: 2020 production numbers include one extra day of production in February as 2020 was a leap year.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand and Australia

exports increase in

November. EU and US

monthly exports down

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 8.7%,

or 32,823 MT, in November

compared to the same

period last year.

Record volumes of WMP to

China and South East Asia of

31,421 MT led this increase.

This was offset by decreases

in butter and fluid milk

products, down a combined

6,852  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down by

2.3%, or 81,486 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven by

butter, infant formula, SMP,

and cheese.

EU (including UK) dairy

exports decreased by 9.5%,

or 49,277 MT, in October

compared to the same

period last year.

This was driven by decreases

in SMP to Saudi Arabia,

infant formula to Hong Kong

and Russia and butter to

the United Arab Emirates

and Morocco.

Exports for the 12 months

to October were up 2.7%, or

152,175 MT, on the previous

comparable period. Fluid

milk products, cheese, butter,

whey and WMP were the

main drivers of this growth,

up a combined 299,504  MT.

It was partially offset by a

large decline in SMP down

163,387  MT.

US dairy exports

decreased 3.1%, or 6,189 MT, in

November compared to the

same period last year.

Exports volumes decreased

for the first time in over a year.

This was led by lower demand

for SMP from South East Asia

and for cheese by Mexico.

Demand for whey from

China continued to increase,

attributable to recovering

hog herds.

Exports for the 12 months

to November 2020 were

up 11. 7%, or 262,870 MT, on

the previous comparable

period driven by SMP, whey

and WPC, up a combined

248,998  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased by 6.9%, or

4,415 MT, in November

compared to the same

period last year.

This was primarily driven by

increased demand for fluid

milk products and WMP, up

a combined 6,329 MT, and

partially offset by decreases

in infant formula, down

2,306  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to November were down

2.2%, or 16,430 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Declines were recorded

across a broad range of

products with infant formula,

cheese, WMP, SMP, down

a combined 35,353  MT,

partially offset by fluid milk

products, up 11,099  MT.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION/UKUSA

%

%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

3.16.98.7

2.22.711.7

9.5

2.3

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China imports continue to

increase and Latin America

monthly imports also up.

Decline in Middle East and

Africa and Asia imports

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

2.6%, or 3,941 MT, in October

compared to the same period

last year.

This was driven by higher

volumes of WMP to Brazil

but partly offset by lower

shipments of SMP to Mexico.

Imports for the 12 months to

October were down 2.2%,

or 38,998 MT, compared

to the same period the

previous year.

Decreases were driven

primarily by SMP, infant

formula and butter, down

a combined 58,702 MT and

partly offset by increased

volumes of cheese and WMP.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 4.0%, or 15,381  MT,

in October compared to the

same period last year.

Decreases were recorded for

WMP to Vietnam, Hong Kong

and Singapore, and whey to

Indonesia. This was partially

offset by an increase in

cheese to Japan.

Imports for the 12 months to

October were down 3.0%, or

147,838 MT, compared to the

same period the previous year.

Decreases were recorded

across WMP, SMP and

fluid milk products, down a

combined 187,680 MT, and

offset partially by increased

volumes of lactose, up

48,282  MT.

Middle East and Africa

dairy import volumes¹

decreased 12.0%, or

31,383 MT in October 2020

compared to the same period

last year.

Decreases were driven

principally by lower volumes

of infant formula and SMP

to Nigeria and fluid milk

products to Kenya.

Imports for the 12 months

to October 2020 were

down 3.8%, or 149,867  MT,

compared to October last

year driven by decreases in

fluid milk products, infant

formula and cheese, down

a combined 331,774 MT, and

partially offset by increases

in SMP.

China dairy import

volumes increased by 10%,

or 28,565 MT, in November

compared to the same

period last year.

Import volumes of fluid milk

products, up 23,401 MT, from

Germany and New Zealand

continued to increase as

dairy consumption is widely

promoted to boost immunity.

Whey imports were also up

19,739 MT, primarily from the

US as China continues to

rebuild its hog herds using

whey as feed.

Imports for the 12 months to

November were up 10.4%, or

325,647 MT, driven by whey,

fluid milk products, butter

and lactose.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

%

%

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for November 2020

compared to November 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for October 2020

compared to October 2019

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2020

10.0

4.02.6

3.03.8

%

Change for the 12 months

to November 2020

10.4

12.0

2.2

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

%

Season to date

1 July to 31 December

Season to date

1 June to 31 December

Season to date

1 June to 31 December

Season to date

1 June to 31 December

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

Change for December 2020

compared to December 2019

1.30.70.60.7

2.21.00.60.7

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collection

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collection


in December

was 111.4 million kgMS, a

1.3 % increase on December

last season.

Above average rainfa

ll and

cooler conditions, driven by a

La Niña weather pattern have

assisted milk production

moving into summer.

Season-to-date collections are

down 2.2% on last year due

to an unseasonally wet spring

and lower herd numbers which

hampered milk volumes across

peak months.

North Island milk

collection in December

was 105.8 million kgMS,

down 0.6% on December

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 560.9 million kgMS,

down 0.6% on last season.

Weather was mixed in

December, with areas

in the top half of the

Island starting with above

average temperatures and

dry conditions, whereas

southern parts were much

wetter than average.

South Island milk

collection in December

was 77.3  million kgMS,

down 0.7% on December

last season.

Season-to-date collection

was 342.0 million kgMS,

down 1.0% on last season.

At the end of November,

season

-to-date collection

was 264.6 million kgMS, 1.1%

behind last season.

Snow fell in some regions

mid-month, followed by a

cold and wet spell for eastern

parts. The upper South

Island also saw some heavy

rain, before more settled

conditions prevailed for most

areas as the month ended.

Fonterra's New Ze

aland

collection for December

was 183.1 million kgMS,

down 0.7% on December

l

ast season.

Season-to-date collection to

t

he end of December was

902.8 million kgMS, down

0.7% on last season.

The poor pasture conditions

experienced in some areas

in early November turned

around with production at

near normal levels by later

in the month. December

saw a wide range of weather

conditions across the

country but indications of

good levels of

supplementary feed

production across most

p

arts of the country.

%

%

%%

%%
%%%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

JAN AUG JAN

MAR

MAY

AUG

OCT

DEC

MAR MAY OCT




,

,


, 

.

.

.

.

.
PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The New Zealand dollar

ap

preciated during November

a

nd December driven by

broad-based US dollar

weakness and supported by

robust commodity prices. By

early January the NZD peaked

above 73 US cents before

settling just below 72 US cents.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

19 January 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 2 February . Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

5.1

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price

(USD/MT)

3,629

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

28.6

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 3,295/MT

7.3

SMP

USD 3,380/MT

2.2

WMP

USD 4,735/MT

4.6

BUTTER

USD 4,082/MT

0.1

CHEDDAR

USD 5,398/MT

17.3

AMF

28,553

MT

LATEST AUCTION

387,575

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

2021

7
Our Performance

Darfield site adds new

shift to meet cream

cheese demand

Strong global demand for

our cream cheese has seen

Fonterra’s Darfield site in

Canterbury hire a full shift

of new recruits as the team

ramps up production.

Cream Cheese Plant

Manager, Blake Aston says,

“We have employed five

new employees for the shift,

and they’ll work alongside

the three other shifts at

the plant.

“The team is seeing

record monthly sales for

cream cheese. Demand is

predominately coming from

China as we continue to see

increased interest in pasture-

fed milk from New Zealand.”

The cream cheese is going

into a range of different

products, from cheese

lollipops to traditional

Chinese pastry like

moon cakes.

“We have great flexibility

here at the plant that

enables us to dial up or down

the firmness and consistency

of cream cheese to meet

customer preference and

the great job our farmers

are doing in delivering top

quality milk,” Mr Blake said.

Mr Blake said that with

COVID-19 bringing

uncertainty to the job

market, it’s great to see that

Fonterra is able to offer new

opportunities for people

looking for work. One of

those new employees is

Liam Fitzgerald, who spent

eight years working as an

international pilot at Air

New Zealand until COVID-19

hit the aviation industry.

“About 15 years ago I worked

for Fonterra at Edgecumbe.

Recently, when my flying

career came to a halt

unexpectedly, I spoke to my

wife about returning to the

dairy industry.

“I grew up rural in

Whakatane and knew the

culture and lifestyle of the

industry would work for us as

we have a young family.

“The opportunity came up

in the cream cheese plant

and having spoken to a few

people I was really excited

to join the team. It’s a

small team but a modern

plant and a cool product

that I’m looking forward to

working with.”

Fonterra's Darfield site

was established in 2012

and employs more than

280 people.

New employee, Liam Fitzgerald and Cream Cheese Plant Manager, Blake Aston

Promising plantain
trial looking good for

the planet

Fonterra and Nestlé are

teaming up with DairyNZ

to expand a promising

plantain trial to help improve

waterways and reduce

on-farm greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions.

Incorporating certain

varieties of plantain into a

cow’s diet has been shown

to reduce the nitrogen

concentration in their urine,

which can leach through soil

into groundwater. To test the

benefits in local pastures,

DairyNZ has been leading

the Tararua Plantain Project

in the lower North Island,

where farmers have been

growing the leafy herb for

their cows. The Ministry for

Primary Industries is also

involved as a key contributor.

Now, Fonterra and Nestlé

are helping expand the

project further through

additional funding and by

sharing expertise.

“We’re all about finding

ways to ensure Aotearoa

New Zealand has a thriving

environment and a thriving

farming economy,” says

Fonterra’s Director of

On-Farm Excellence

Charlotte Rutherford.

“We can achieve more by

partnering with others, so

it’s great to join forces with

DairyNZ and Nestlé. This

is helping to speed up the

adoption of plantain by

farmers. Ultimately it could

be a real game-changer to

reduce nitrogen from cows

and help mitigate nitrous

oxide emissions.”

The new collaboration is

helping to accelerate uptake

of Ecotain – a blend of

environmentally functional

plantain cultivars developed

by seed company Agricom.

Currently, 50 Tararua farms

have started to use plantain,

through DairyNZ’s Tararua

Plantain Project. With the

funding boost from Fonterra

and Nestlé, it’s expected

these farms and more will

increase the amount they

grow, therefore maximising

the benefits.

Ecotain has been used in

studies by DairyNZ, Agricom,

Lincoln University, Massey

University and AgResearch,

with results showing it can

significantly reduce nitrogen

leaching. Preliminary studies

also show it has the potential

to lower on-farm greenhouse

gas emissions through the

reduction of nitrous oxide,

which is promising news

for farmers.

Nestlé, the world’s largest

food company and a

customer of Fonterra’s, was

keen to be involved in the

Tararua project given the

commitments it has made

around sustainability.

“Working with our suppliers

and others is critical for

achieving Nestlé’s target of

net zero carbon emissions

by 2050. Reducing on-farm

greenhouse gas emissions

and protecting waterways

will help us get there and

we’re pleased to partner with

Fonterra and DairyNZ on

this initiative,” says Nestlé’s

Robert Erhard.

The project also focuses on

improving understanding of

how farmers can implement

Ecotain successfully and

engaging farmers through

workshops, events and a

national farmer network to

extend knowledge.

As the industry good

body representing dairy

farmers, DairyNZ invests

significantly in sustainability

research. DairyNZ’s General

Manager for New Systems

and Competitiveness,

David McCall, says the

dairy sector has a wide

range of work underway

to reduce nitrates entering

waterways and reduce

on-farm emissions.

“The seven-year Tararua

Plantain Project is a flagship

project for the dairy sector.

It is delivering real, tangible

results valued by farmers.

The project has community

at its heart as it seeks water

quality improvements,

while ensuring the dairy

sector continues as an

economic pillar within the

local community.

“It is excellent to have extra

support from Fonterra and

Nestlé within the Tararua

catchment,” says Dr McCall.

Our Co-op

8

To view more information

about the Tararua

Plantain Project –

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

DEC JUL JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES













,

EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEUUK

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV OCT SEP MAY 

MT s

















AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC

JUL OCT 

MT s

 

 











AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK and Australia to November; New Zealand and US to December.

NOTE: Data for EU/UK to October; New Zealand, Australia and US to November.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to October; China to November.

SOURCE: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

DECEMBER

2020

DECEMBER


2019

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2019/20

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

183.1184.3(0.7%)902.8909.7(0.7%)

North Island105.8106.4(0.6%)560.9564.3(0.6%)

South Island77.377.9(0.7%)342.0345.4(1.0%)

Australia11. 411. 31.3%59.060.3(2.2%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(19 JANUARY 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2020)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

28,553387,575

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(10.3%)(8.9%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

3,6293,201

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

4.7%(5.3%)

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

5.1%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MENA

Middle East – North Africa.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

NZMP

New Zealand Milk Products.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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