Quarterly Operational Update
QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 March 2021
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01
FY2022 OTAHUHU FUTURES PRICE
INCREASED TO $193/MWh
FY2021 HYDRO GENERATION
FORECAST REMAINS 3,800GWh;
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT FY2022
NATIONAL INFLOWS 1,636GWh BELOW
AVERAGE IN Q3, AT 10th PERCENTILE;
9 MONTH INFLOWS AT 27th PERCENTILE
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
DRY
CONDITIONS
CONTINUE
FUTURES
PRICES
LIFT
3,800GWh
>> COMMENTARY
HYDRO GENERATION LIFTS DESPITE BELOW AVERAGE INFLOWS; GEOTHERMAL GENERATION MAINTAINED
Mercury's FY2021-Q3 hydro generation increased versus the prior comparable period by 71GWh to 910GWh as Mercury responded to
high spot prices. This was achieved, despite Waikato catchment inflows being 168GWh below average
1
, through drawing down
storage in Lake Taupo which is now expected to be below average by the end of FY2021. Mercury's FY2021 hydro generation forecast
remains 3,800GWh.
Geothermal generation of 658GWh in FY2021-Q3 was equal to the prior comparable period but increased on a normalised basis.
DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED THERMAL FUEL CONSTRAINTS SEE RECORD PRICES
National hydro inflows during FY2021-Q3 were 1,636GWh below average
1
, causing total hydro storage to decline to 1,914GWh
(1,181GWh below average
1
) by the end of the quarter. Low inflows, coinciding with continued thermal fuel constraints at the Pohokura
and Kupe gas fields, saw spot prices lift to record levels. FY2021-Q3 average spot prices increased to $206/MWh and $203/MWh at
Otahuhu and Benmore respectively versus $82/MWh and $52/MWh in the prior comparable period (which was affected by the Level
4 COVID-19 lockdown).
Reduced fuel availability in the approach to the winter months saw the FY2022 futures price increase by $74/MWh at Otahuhu to
$193/MWh and by $76/MWh to $177MWh at Benmore. The FY2023 futures prices also lifted during the quarter from $103/MWh to
$143/MWh at Otahuhu with longer-term demand expectations firmed by the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter contract extension
announced during the quarter.
SALES PORTFOLIO TILTS TOWARDS COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT
Mercury's sales portfolio further tilted towards Commercial and Industrial with total sales volumes in that segment (including both
physical and financial sales) increasing from 739GWh in FY2020-Q3 to 858GWh in the most recent quarter. Decreasing customer
connections, which fell by 5,000 across the quarter to 331,000, resulted in Mass Market physical sales declining from 602GWh in
FY2020-Q3 to 544GWh in FY2021-Q3.
A continued focus on customer value saw sales yields in the Mass Market segment lift by 9.6%, from $129/MWh in FY2020-Q3 to
$141/MWh in FY2021-Q3. The Commercial and Industrial sales yield increased by 1.9%, from $92/MWh to $94/MWh.
REDUCED INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT LOAD LEADS DEMAND DOWN
National demand decreased by 1.4% (normalised for temperature and the difference in days) in FY2021-Q3 compared to FY2020-Q3
with significant decreases seen in the industrial (-0.9%) and irrigation (-0.4%) sectors and smaller shifts in the urban (-0.1%), rural (-
0.2%) and dairy (+0.2%) sectors.The primary drivers behind the decrease in industrial demand were reduced load at the Tiwai Point
aluminium smelter, which decreased from an average 591MW in FY2020-Q3 to 566MW in the current quarter, and a month-long
maintenance outage at the Marsden Point refinery.
1
For quarters ended 31 March since 1927
331353
293311
3842
4547
VWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
Volume
(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)
1,0211,0113,3173,252
2
5446021,9822,157
3
4774091,3351,095
4849157158
4
1,0681,0593,4743,411
5
8088682,5882,570
3813301,135965
6
4275381,4531,605
31184135563
1,5681,4974,8894,926
9108392,8852,982
7
6586582,0041,944
35432411901,014
6
35432411901,014
8
1.011.001.011.02
1
VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
2
Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
3
Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
4
Excludes spot customer purchases
5
6
7
Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
8
Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02
94.98
86.99208.04
Hydro
Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)
215.1177.94
Physical Purchases
Financial
Spot Settlement of CfDs
End User CfDs84.83
104.10
Spot Customer Purchases
95.18
220.7288.28
95.8391.25
78.10197.47
86.56
Other Sell CfDs
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2021 and 149 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2020 and of 450
GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2021 and 451 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2020
Spot Settlement of CfDs
PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP
66.76207.26
Geothermal (consolidated)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Physical
84.1892.81 Buy CfDs
194.8776.80
92.8184.18Financial
217.56
152.58106.08
159.50112.68
144.90
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended
31 March 2021
Three months ended
31 March 2020
($/MWh)
Dual Fuel Customers
($/MWh)
South Island Customers
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS
('000s ICPs)
North Island Customers
Commercial & Industrial
Network Losses
97.92
128.54
99.57
Physical121.56116.15
Mass Market140.84
ELECTRICITY SALES
($/MWh)($/MWh)
121.78116.49
86.9080.80
91.8186.36
144.3598.61
153.4299.88
91.87
142.6295.95
92.5583.42
92.5583.42
Nine months ended
31 March 2021
Nine months ended
31 March 2020
159.29110.42
89.6684.27
138.88128.93
96.3892.00
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Source: Electricity Authority
> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03
17%
32%
19%
21%
3%
8%
Financial Year Q3 2021
MERCURY
MERIDIAN ENERGY
CONTACT ENERGY
GENESIS ENERGY
TRUSTPOWER / TILT
OTHER
>> MARKET DATA
16%
36%
20%
17%
4%
7%
Financial Year Q3 2020
12%
88%
Financial Year Q3 2021
MERCURY
OTHER
13%
87%
Financial Year Q3 2020
> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
> TAUPO STORAGE
Source: NZX Hydro
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
$/MWh
GWh
AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2020 NATIONAL STORAGE
FY2021 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE
ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
GWh
AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2020FY2021
> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05
$94.10
$93.85
$96.00
$122.42
$100.14
$93.46
$135.59
$119.06
$103.11
$187.52
$193.18
$143.18
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY21FY22FY23
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021
$78.63
$70.05
$67.23
$111.22
$85.19
$78.14
$120.57
$100.69
$82.16
$174.84
$177.01
$125.69
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY21FY22FY23
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021
> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)
FINANCIAL YEAR
Q1Q2Q3Q4
202112.316.919.5-
202012.316.719.514.4
201912.116.320.214.1
201812.317.220.714.3
201712.116.119.314.3
Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2
Source: Met Service
> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Source: Electricity Authority
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06
8,240
8,185
8,045
8,244
8,329
8,159
1,256
1,237
1,235
1,320
1,291
1,223
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021
GWh
NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
% Churn
Monthly ICPs
NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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