Mercury NZ Limited/Announcement
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Quarterly Operational Update

Quarterly Update20 April 2021MCYUtilities

QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 31 March 2021

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01

FY2022 OTAHUHU FUTURES PRICE

INCREASED TO $193/MWh

FY2021 HYDRO GENERATION

FORECAST REMAINS 3,800GWh;

POTENTIAL TO IMPACT FY2022

NATIONAL INFLOWS 1,636GWh BELOW

AVERAGE IN Q3, AT 10th PERCENTILE;

9 MONTH INFLOWS AT 27th PERCENTILE

>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS

DRY

CONDITIONS

CONTINUE

FUTURES

PRICES

LIFT

3,800GWh

>> COMMENTARY

HYDRO GENERATION LIFTS DESPITE BELOW AVERAGE INFLOWS; GEOTHERMAL GENERATION MAINTAINED

Mercury's FY2021-Q3 hydro generation increased versus the prior comparable period by 71GWh to 910GWh as Mercury responded to

high spot prices. This was achieved, despite Waikato catchment inflows being 168GWh below average

1

, through drawing down

storage in Lake Taupo which is now expected to be below average by the end of FY2021. Mercury's FY2021 hydro generation forecast

remains 3,800GWh.

Geothermal generation of 658GWh in FY2021-Q3 was equal to the prior comparable period but increased on a normalised basis.

DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED THERMAL FUEL CONSTRAINTS SEE RECORD PRICES

National hydro inflows during FY2021-Q3 were 1,636GWh below average

1

, causing total hydro storage to decline to 1,914GWh

(1,181GWh below average

1

) by the end of the quarter. Low inflows, coinciding with continued thermal fuel constraints at the Pohokura

and Kupe gas fields, saw spot prices lift to record levels. FY2021-Q3 average spot prices increased to $206/MWh and $203/MWh at

Otahuhu and Benmore respectively versus $82/MWh and $52/MWh in the prior comparable period (which was affected by the Level

4 COVID-19 lockdown).

Reduced fuel availability in the approach to the winter months saw the FY2022 futures price increase by $74/MWh at Otahuhu to

$193/MWh and by $76/MWh to $177MWh at Benmore. The FY2023 futures prices also lifted during the quarter from $103/MWh to

$143/MWh at Otahuhu with longer-term demand expectations firmed by the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter contract extension

announced during the quarter.

SALES PORTFOLIO TILTS TOWARDS COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT

Mercury's sales portfolio further tilted towards Commercial and Industrial with total sales volumes in that segment (including both

physical and financial sales) increasing from 739GWh in FY2020-Q3 to 858GWh in the most recent quarter. Decreasing customer

connections, which fell by 5,000 across the quarter to 331,000, resulted in Mass Market physical sales declining from 602GWh in

FY2020-Q3 to 544GWh in FY2021-Q3.

A continued focus on customer value saw sales yields in the Mass Market segment lift by 9.6%, from $129/MWh in FY2020-Q3 to

$141/MWh in FY2021-Q3. The Commercial and Industrial sales yield increased by 1.9%, from $92/MWh to $94/MWh.

REDUCED INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT LOAD LEADS DEMAND DOWN

National demand decreased by 1.4% (normalised for temperature and the difference in days) in FY2021-Q3 compared to FY2020-Q3

with significant decreases seen in the industrial (-0.9%) and irrigation (-0.4%) sectors and smaller shifts in the urban (-0.1%), rural (-

0.2%) and dairy (+0.2%) sectors.The primary drivers behind the decrease in industrial demand were reduced load at the Tiwai Point

aluminium smelter, which decreased from an average 591MW in FY2020-Q3 to 566MW in the current quarter, and a month-long

maintenance outage at the Marsden Point refinery.

1

For quarters ended 31 March since 1927

331353
293311

3842

4547

VWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

VolumeVWAP

1

Volume

(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)(GWh)

1,0211,0113,3173,252

2

5446021,9822,157

3

4774091,3351,095

4849157158

4

1,0681,0593,4743,411

5

8088682,5882,570

3813301,135965

6

4275381,4531,605

31184135563

1,5681,4974,8894,926

9108392,8852,982

7

6586582,0041,944

35432411901,014

6

35432411901,014

8

1.011.001.011.02

1

VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees

2

Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers

3

Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers

4

Excludes spot customer purchases

5

6

7

Includes Mercury's 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation

8

Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02

94.98

86.99208.04

Hydro

Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)

215.1177.94

Physical Purchases

Financial

Spot Settlement of CfDs

End User CfDs84.83

104.10

Spot Customer Purchases

95.18

220.7288.28

95.8391.25

78.10197.47

86.56

Other Sell CfDs

Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 148 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2021 and 149 GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2020 and of 450

GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2021 and 451 GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2020

Spot Settlement of CfDs

PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP

66.76207.26

Geothermal (consolidated)

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Physical

84.1892.81 Buy CfDs

194.8776.80

92.8184.18Financial

217.56

152.58106.08

159.50112.68

144.90

OPERATING INFORMATION

Three months ended

31 March 2021

Three months ended

31 March 2020

($/MWh)

Dual Fuel Customers

($/MWh)

South Island Customers

ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS

('000s ICPs)

North Island Customers

Commercial & Industrial

Network Losses

97.92

128.54

99.57

Physical121.56116.15

Mass Market140.84

ELECTRICITY SALES

($/MWh)($/MWh)

121.78116.49

86.9080.80

91.8186.36

144.3598.61

153.4299.88

91.87

142.6295.95

92.5583.42

92.5583.42

Nine months ended

31 March 2021

Nine months ended

31 March 2020

159.29110.42

89.6684.27

138.88128.93

96.3892.00

>> OPERATING STATISTICS

> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Source: Electricity Authority

> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH (EXCLUDING CFDs)

Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03

17%

32%

19%

21%

3%

8%

Financial Year Q3 2021

MERCURY

MERIDIAN ENERGY

CONTACT ENERGY

GENESIS ENERGY

TRUSTPOWER / TILT

OTHER

>> MARKET DATA

16%

36%

20%

17%

4%

7%

Financial Year Q3 2020

12%

88%

Financial Year Q3 2021

MERCURY

OTHER

13%

87%

Financial Year Q3 2020

> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)

> TAUPO STORAGE

Source: NZX Hydro

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

$/MWh

GWh

AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2020 NATIONAL STORAGE

FY2021 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE

ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

GWh

AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2020FY2021

> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX

> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ASX

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05

$94.10

$93.85

$96.00

$122.42

$100.14

$93.46

$135.59

$119.06

$103.11

$187.52

$193.18

$143.18

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

FY21FY22FY23

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021

$78.63

$70.05

$67.23

$111.22

$85.19

$78.14

$120.57

$100.69

$82.16

$174.84

$177.01

$125.69

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

FY21FY22FY23

$/MWh

Financial Year

AS AT 31 MARCH 2020AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021

> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange

> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)

FINANCIAL YEAR

Q1Q2Q3Q4

202112.316.919.5-

202012.316.719.514.4

201912.116.320.214.1

201812.317.220.714.3

201712.116.119.314.3

Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2

Source: Met Service

> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)

Source: Electricity Authority

MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06

8,240

8,185

8,045

8,244

8,329

8,159

1,256

1,237

1,235

1,320

1,291

1,223

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021

GWh

NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

% Churn

Monthly ICPs

NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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