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Meridian Energy Investor Day Presentation

Investor Presentation10 May 2021MELUtilities

PG 1

Meridian Energy investor day presentation

11 May 2021

Attached is a presentation Meridian Energy is making at the company’s investor day today.


The presentation will commence at 10.30am New Zealand Standard Time and a live webcast will be available:

https://web.lumiagm.com/?fromUrl=362889302


The meeting ID is:

362-889-302


A replay of the investor day will also be available at

https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors/reports-and-presentations/investor-presentations

from the afternoon of Tuesday 11 May 2021.


ENDS

Neal Barclay

Chief Executive

Meridian Energy Limited


For investor relations queries, please contact:

Owen Hackston

Investor Relations Manager

021 246 4772

For media queries, please contact:

Polly Atkins

Senior Communications Specialist


021 174 1715

2021 Investor Day Presentation
11 MAY 2021

Introduction
Mark Verbiest

Chair

22021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
3

11 MAY 2021

Welcome

Welcome and introductionMark VerbiestChair

Strategy and targetsRory BlundellGroup Strategy Manager

RetailLisa HannifinChief Customer Officer

Flux FederationNic KennedyCEO Flex Federation

Future of the NZ systemGrant Te l f a rModelling Manager

South Island demand optionsGuy WaiparaGeneral Manager Development

Portfolio balanceChris EwersGeneral Manager Wholesale

Harapakiwind farmChris MoreWind Maintenance and Development Manager

Generation developmentRebecca KnottHead of Renewable Development

Closing commentsNeal BarclayChief Executive

4
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Aotearoa's future decarbonisationand the

electrification opportunity

Future dry year solutions

Meridian’s response to a 2024 NZAS exit

Three key themes

5
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

NZAS exit response

NZAS contract

14Jan

2021

1 Jan

2022

1 Jan

2023

1 Jan

2024

31 Dec

2024

Meridian portfolio response

Current swaption

CUWLP

NI battery

Process heat

Data centre

Green hydrogen

6
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Dividend policy

No changes to ordinary dividend policy proposed

(subject always to circumstances)

‘No earnings or dividend guidance’ approach will

remain in place

Current Board

Diverse skill set

Gender parity

Board rotation

Further changes planned this year

Board matters

Strategy and targets
Rory Blundell

Group Strategy Manager

72021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

8
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Strategy

Strategic

initiatives

Champion

Competitive markets

Sustainability

Climate action

Optimise

Trading & asset management

Re-consenting

Financing

Grow

Retail

Generation

Flux

Grow a clear sustainability leadership

position

Use our 5,000 GWh renewable opportunity to

fast-track NZ’s decarbonisation

NZ’s largest retail group by ICPs

A resilient wellbeing and safety culture

5-year

targets

5

th

in Colmar Brunton Better Futures

Report

1,500 GWh new demand opportunities identified

90% positive staff wellbeing and safety sentiment, deteriorating injury frequency rates

Current position

NZ’s highest customer satisfaction

Triple AusFY20 customer numbers

3 million ICP’s on Flux

3

rd

largest retail group by ICPs

5th highest customer satisfaction

6% growth in Auscustomer numbers

550,000 ICP’s on Flux

9
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Strategy

Champion

Competitive markets

Sustainability

Climate action

Optimise

Trading & asset management

Re-consenting

Financing

Grow

Retail

Generation

Flux

Regulatory and government relations

programmes drive positive change

Portfolio evolution to support continued

growth

Secure new development options

Grow the Flux client base

Shift in ourmanagement practices to accommodate increased agility and a changing world of work

Current

initiatives

New South Island demand options to

mitigate NZAS closure

Deliver Harapaki

Reduce Ausretail cost-to-serve,

advance pipeline

Customer best in class digital and

infrastructure

Covering today

Generative health and safety culture

Enterprise security

Strategic

initiatives

Retail
Lisa Hannifin

Chief Customer Officer

102021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

11
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Being delivered through volume and margin

management

Improved financial performance continues despite

increased competition and pressure on retail

margins

Significant volume growth has been achieved

through targeted acquisition across both brands

Meridian most notably in the C&I segment, whilst

Powershophas grown its Residential and Small

Business market share

Strong discipline on controllable costs despite an

increasing customer base has seen a continued

reduction in operating expenditure by ICP and

MWh

Profitable growth

92.1

93.1

91.1

96.2

100.9

FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21 F

NETBACK $/MWH

5,727

5,981

6,240

7,376

>8,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

20172018201920202021 est

GWh

Financial Year ended 30 June

New Zealand retail sales volumes

11

12

13

14

15

270

280

290

300

310

20172018201920202021 est

Financial Year ended 30 June

Operating Expenditure

Opex per ICP (LHS)Opex per MWh (RHS)

FY21 est

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

12
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Through disciplined execution of multi-brand strategy

The Group is delivering net growth in all segments and has

become the3rdlargest retail group in NZ

Powershoprecently surpassed a milestone 100k ICPs

The strong growth trend of small and medium retailers

continues, and Meridian’s multi-brand strategy ensures we’re

well positioned to leverage this

Sustained customer growth

Contact Energy

Genesis Energy

Mercury NZ

Meridian Energy

Small and medium retailers

Trustpower

100k

200k

300k

400k

500k

600k

2016 Mar

2016 May

2016 Jul

2016 Sep

2016 Nov

2017 Jan

2017 Mar

2017 May

2017 Jul

2017 Sep

2017 Nov

2018 Jan

2018 Mar

2018 May

2018 Jul

2018 Sep

2018 Nov

2019 Jan

2019 Mar

2019 May

2019 Jul

2019 Sep

2019 Nov

2020 Jan

2020 Mar

2020 May

2020 Jul

2020 Sep

2020 Nov

2021 Jan

2021 Mar

ICP count by Retailer

130

128

35

38

43

45

27

29

79

87

10

12

0k

100k

200k

300k

400k

FY20FY21 YTD

ICPs by Segment

Meridian RESMeridian SME

Meridian AGRMeridian CLB

Powershop RESPowershop BUS

To t a l

324

To t a l

338

Source: Electricity AuthoritySource: Electricity Authority

13
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Near completion with no major issues to date and

improved efficiencies

Over 60% of Meridian ICPs have been successfully

migrated to the Flux platform with the project due

for completion in 2021

Core platform transformation

Platform productivity benefits are being realised

with improved customer care agent to ICP

servicing ratios driven by reduced customer

interaction volumes

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

14
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

In both brands, despite core platform

transformation

Stable customer satisfaction

6

7

8

May-19Aug-19Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21

C SAT – Gentailer brands

Meridian EnergyGenesisContact Energy

MercuryTrustpowerGentailer average

6

7

8

9

May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21

C SAT –Challenger brands

Energy OnlineNova EnergyPulse Energy

PowerShopElectric KiwiChallenger average

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

15
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Meridian continues to enjoy trader churn rates

significantly below the market average

Powershop’s programmeof ‘churn busting’ work

has delivered substantial improvements to its

churn rate

Brand health continues to remain strong in both

brands –providing a platform for us to continue

sustained growth

Improving retention and market leading brand

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

12 month rolling average trader churn

PowershopMeridian EnergyWeighted Market Average

Source: Electricity Authority

Source: Meridian

EV Charging Network
Meridian is launching a nationwide network of more than

200 EV chargers to help build real momentum for the

switch to electric as electrification of transport is one of

the biggest ways to help combat climate change

Process Heat Electrification Programme

Accelerating New Zealand’s transition away from fossil

fuels by supporting customers to electrify their process

heat through competitive pricing, long term pricing

certainty and funding support

16

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Innovation and delivery with a decarbonisationfocus

ECertifiedRenewable Energy

A market leading product that aligns with customers’ sustainability goals providing an accredited alternative to carbon

offsetting, enabling businesses to report their Scope 2 electricity emissions as zero

Commercial Solar

Meridian offers solutions to businesses that want to lead the way to a renewable energy future with an array of

options to go solar

17
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Our way of working continues to evolve

Flux Federation
Move faster, price smarter & integrate widely

Nic Kennedy, CEOMay 2021

Flux Federation | May 2021
Flux empowersvisionary companies leading the energy transition;

enabling them to respondto changing generation, distribution

and consumption models by moving faster, pricing smarter and

integrating widely.

FLUX FEDERATION VISION

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

19

FLUX’S ROLE IN THE MERIDIAN GROUP
Flux Federation | May 2021

Flux creates value for

the Meridian Group in

three ways...

1. Providing the best retail platform in

market to the Meridian Group

retailers

2. Selling that platform to other

retailers to capture revenue for the

Meridian Group

3. Building the enterprise value of the

Flux asset

20

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

INTRODUCING FLUX FEDERATION
Flux Federation | May 2021

Enabling retailers to

move faster, price

smarter and integrate

widely

●100% owned by Meridian Energy

●250+ staff globally

●Remote-first operations

●World class Exec team

●Targeting growth in AU, NZ and UK, in mass

market, SME and C&I

Flux provides deep industry knowledge and assists

clients with:

●Energy retail best practice

●Operational improvements

●Cost savings

●Risk reduction

●Digital transformation and change management

●Data insights

21

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

MARKET DEMAND ACCELERATING
Flux Federation | May 2021

“Energy retailers

globally are being

challenged like never

before.”

-

McKinsey

Energy transition challenges - the 3D’s:

●Digitisation

●Decentralisation

●Decarbonisation

On top of:

●Increasing regulation

●Changing competition landscape

●Decreasing margin

●Challenging stakeholder demands

●Low in-house change and digital skills/talent

22

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

COMPETITION
Flux Federation | May 2021

New entrant tech

companies see great

opportunity in the

energy transition

Incumbents

●SAP

●Gentrack

●Oracle

●Agility

New entrants

●Flux (Meridian)

●Kaluza(Ovo)

●Kraken (Octopus)

●Ensek

23

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

LOOKING AHEAD
Flux Federation | May 2021

Great things in

business are never

done by one person.

They're done by a

team of people.

-Steve Jobs

Last 12 months- Foundations for scale. Improving the

team, architecture, product, brand and delivery and

establishing strategy for growth

•Secured 101 talented people in 2020 during Covid,

all remotely

•Transformed the culture, high-performing, Remote-

first, staff satisfaction and productivity gains

•Improved client satisfaction by 30%

•Replaced Gentrack at Meridian including C&I

•Re-architected product to microservices

•Rebranded, logo, website, messaging

•Hired VP Global Sales

Next 1-2 years- Build on customer intimacy and product

leadership strategy to shape the market. New client

acquisition in UK, AU and NZ

Next 3-5 years- Expansion into Asia and the US

24

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

The future of the NZ system
with 100% renewables

Grant Telfar

Modelling Manager

252021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

Major Generation Sources
Scaled to size of mean energy contribution : 2021-23

Hydro storage

Hydro generation

Coal generation

Gas generation

Geothermal generation

Wind generation

Major load centre

HVDC link

Net transfer to NI

Thermal storage

26

Living in uncertain times: renewable energy & dry year flexibility

Hydro inflow deficits of 5TWh (20%) have historically been managed by

maintaining thermal capacity, flexible thermal fuel storage, and flexible

thermal fuel deliveries

Newly committed wind and geothermal projects (2.7TWh) will move the

system to 90% renewable over the next few years

The Government has stated its intent for a 100% renewable system by 2030

They are proposing the Onslow-Manorburnpump storage scheme as a key

plank towards this goal

As more wind enters the system, it too can face extreme deficits of 8-10%.

Solar also faces deficits of up to 3-5%

A Tiwai smelter closure by the end of 2024 could see 5TWh of excess

Southland-Otago generation attempting to flow northward

In response to this regional energy imbalance, large-scale demand

stimulation projects are being pursued

Significant new demand in Southland that is alsoflexible could address

regional energy balance andcreate an alternative mechanism for dry-years

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Source: Meridian

27
Changes to the power system by 2030

A large volume of new renewable energy (RE) generation is

needed: 12TWh, 3GW, and $7B of new gridgeneration

A secure power system can be achieved multiple ways:

retaining thermal generation, 99% RE possible

with Onslow, system overbuild, or large-scale demand

flexibility, 100% RE possible

All solutions rely on other power system components also

flexing: dispatchable demand, renewable spill, batteries, ...

The pace of change and sheer scale of this challenge is

enormous, regardless of the dry-year flexibility solution

Wide-reaching changes are expected: storage, prices, and

generation all alter dramatically from today’s expectations

Any of these solutions can do the job: a secure power system

with low carbon emissions and a high level of RE

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

85%

88%

90%

93%

95%

98%

100%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

BAU:

FY2022-24

750MW

Full H2 Flex

610MW

Dry-Year

Tiwai

400MW

Gas

Turbines

1,000MW

Onslow

750MW

Coal

Reserve

Overbuild

Overbuild +

Big PKI

% renewable energy

annual generation [TWh]

NZ Power System 2030 Generation Summary

Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies

HydroWind

Geothermal

SolarAuxiliaryThermal

Dispatchable DemandDem Response% Renewable

Costs, cost allocation, and implications for market are

more challenging for some solutions

Source: Meridian

28
Future dry year flexibility scenarios

(1) 610MW Southland demand

This could either be new or existing demand

Flex production down in times of hydro inflow scarcity,

and falling lake levels, in incremental steps

Across all hydrological history, demand reduction is

low 250GWh pa (5% of annual production)

This can vary between 0 and 1,500GWh (30% of

production) with the extreme occurring infrequently,

<1% of all inflow years

No flexibility at all is required in up to 75% of all

hydrological years

On rare occasions of extreme stress, the market could

consume the entire load of the facility (610MW) for a

number of weeks or even months

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

The need for flexibility in large scale demand is

modest but with some extreme usage seen in rare,

dry years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

50

100

150

200

250

<3,750 3,750 -

3,850

3,850 -

3,950

3,950 -

4,050

4,050 -

4,150

4,150 -

4,250

4,250 -

4,350

4,350 -

4,450

4,450 -

4,550

4,550 -

4,650

4,650 -

4,750

4,750 -

4,850

4,850 -

4,950

4,950 -

5,050

5,050 -

5,150

5,150 -

5,350

sum prob (# years)

# of years

annual generation [GWh]

Demand Consumption with Dry-Year Flexibility

Southland Stimulation; 610MW dry-year flexible H

2

; no thermal

Count

SumProb

FlexiblePivot Point

Annual

output

Source: Meridian

29
Future dry year flexibility scenarios

(2) 750MW hydrogen electrolysis plant

As per scenario #1, flex production downin times of hydro

inflow scarcity in incremental steps

Adding to this: flex production upin times of renewable

surplus: wet, sunny, windy, low demand

A “typical” running load of 550MW

The ability to increase to 750MW during periods of

surplus at lower market prices

Annual consumption the same as previous case (5TWh), a

77% capacity factor, with dry-year flexibility offered back

to the power system, up to 1.5TWh

Strong seasonality in the demand for flexibility

The distribution of potential H

2

plant loading is far

broader than was observed for dry-year demand response

only

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Benefits to the system can be significant: increasing

the overall power system capacity factor, dry-year

management, and the ability to absorb more

intermittent renewables

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

28-Jun

28-Sep

28-Dec

28-Mar

28-Jun

28-Sep

28-Dec

28-Mar

28-Jun

28-Sep

28-Dec

28-Mar

28-Jun

energy [GWh per week]

Hydrogen Electrolysis Consumption

Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies

5-25th %ile25-75th %ile75-95th %ileMinMeanMax

Weekly

output

Source: Meridian

30
Future dry year flexibility scenarios

(3) Onslow-Manorburn(simple) pumped storage

585MW of (new or old) Southland load with no flexibility

A simple 4,000GWh storage and 1,000MW power station

scheme:

25% losses: 750MW available for hydro management

and 250MW for intermittency management

Reservoir release rules determined by dynamic needs of

the power system, dispatched according to water-value:

Mean dry-year pumping load is 650GWh – ‘trickle

charge’ overnight in summer

Mean generation / releases are 325GWh. This will

increase as Lake Onslowfills. Intermittency

management contributes an extra ~125GWh

There is a clear seasonal need for generation

In extremes, up to an extra 1,500GWh of generation is

dispatched back into the market

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

The estimated $4B+

1

Onslowscheme can be a viable

dry year mechanism, along-side other sources of

flexibility

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

<0 0 - 135 135 -

270

270 -

405

405 -

540

540 -

675

675 -

810

810 -

945

945 -

1,080

1,080 -

1,215

1,215 -

1,350

1,350 -

1,485

1,485 -

1,620

1,620 -

1,755

1,755 -

1,890

1,890 -

2,000

sum prob (# years)

# of years

annual generation [GWh]

Onslow-Manorburn Generation

Southland Stimulation; 750MW generator; trickle-charge pumping; No thermal

Count

SumProb

Annual

output

1

estimated cost, not including further required investment in transmission

Source: Meridian

31
Annual system costs by 2030

Over the decade, the challenge of meeting the generation

needs of a power system moving towards 99%-100% RE are

significant, regardless of the dry-year solution pursued:

13-15TWh of new generation, including roof-top PV

New capital requirements are broadly in line with energy

needs – similar between scenarios

$9.5-10B (including $1.9B of roof-top PV)

Additional costs are likely for new flexibility:

For example: H

2

= $2.5B; Onslow = $4B; gas flexibility =

$0.5B; Pukakihigh dam = $2.5B (all estimates)

Depending on how costs are socialised, dry-year load

response, reserve coal, or gas turbines could all look

significantly cheaper

System cost is not the only metric for the Government (or

regulators) to consider: carbon, security, volatility, and

investment/market stability are all important

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

BAU FY2022-24

Full H2 Flex;

750MW

Dry-year Tiwai

Flex; 610MW

Onslow; No H2

Flex; 585MW

Gas Turbines;

No H2 Flex;

585MW

Coal Reserve;

No H2 Flex;

585MW

Overbuild; No

H2 Flex

585MW

Overbuild;

Large PKI; No

H2 Flex

585MW

system costs per year [$M]

Annual NZ System Costs

Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies

Shortage

Emergency

Dem Res

Capital Annuity

Direct Tx

Carbon

Thermal Fuel

OM

TOTAL (mean)

+ flex capital

A tight range of system costs is seen between quite

different solutions to dry-year flexibility

untilthe unknown costs of flexibility are considered

Source: Meridian

32
The best source of future dry year flexibility

The scale and pace of change required to move the NZ power system to 100% renewable energy is significant

Changes expected in wholesale market outcomes and performance will be dramatic at times:

Mean modelled prices ~$80/MWh in most scenarios, but sufficient to generate a return on investment

Weekly price volatility – especially in winter – is significantly higher than seen today (4-5x)

Storage levels are held higher, creating a buffer against deficits in renewable fuel

Expected carbon emissions are low in all cases: but slightly higher for coal and gas solutions

Expected shortage is greater than today’s market but manageable

Significant renewable energy spill (wind, geothermal, solar) adds to the hydro spill seen in today’s market

There is no single solution to future dry-year flexibility that produces a desirable outcome in all situations

Of the solutions explored:

flexible demand response solutions – especially if it can manage both dry-years and intermittency; and

a gas-turbine based solution –if upstream flexibility can be delivered;

can achieve a balanced compromise of power system outcomes across a range of metrics

All dry-year solutions have the potential to help solve much of the NZ dry-year issue. Any given solution does not need to

solve it in its entirety, nor be mutually exclusive with other complementary future solutions

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

South Island demand options
Guy Waipara

General Manager

Development

332021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

34
Datagrid -overview

Manapouri has abundant, stable and very

competitive renewable energy (versus lack of

hydro power in Australia)

Southland has the coolest weather in ANZ

(average 9.8°C temperature)

Shortest distance to Australia, 20M population

within 35 millisecond latency

Existing high reliability transmission grid (built for

Tiwai) and access to “unlimited” and affordable

land

Plus – NZ provides a safe environment, well

educated workforce, state-of-the-art UFB network

- optical fibre connectivity

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Globally, data centres are expected to consume

around 8% of the world’s electricity by 2030

35
Datagrid –project update

Exclusivity arrangement - Datagridhave

rights to up to 100MW of electricity

Conditional on Datagridachieving

project milestones

Working with Great South to identify

potential sites, closure imminent

Australian DC market forecast to grow

from 500 MW in 2021 to 2200 MW in

2026.

Datagridteam believe they can service

Australia circa 30% cheaper than

domestic green options

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Source: datagrid

36
Datagrid –project timeline

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Source: datagrid

37
Process heat electrification -business

Meridian team is working with South Island industrial customers to assist with the decarbonisation and

electrification of industrial plant

Mainly replacement of coal boilers with electricity powered options

Meridian is committed to:

Potential new demand opportunity of 250GWh-500GWh pa

To date leads of 132GWh, and 31GWh of load committed

Provided a syndicated offer to large industrial user for their consideration

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

38
Green hydrogen feasibility study

A three part study:

Market scan – markets, end use cases,

logistics, NZ opportunity

Technology and engineering assessment –

development costs, technology options, health

and process safety and logistics

Dry year flexibility

Study completion by August 2021

Registration of interest due out May 2021 – test

end to end value chain

Independent Advisory Board providing project

governance

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

39
Green hydrogen project plan

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Key dates

May 2021

ROI released

August 2021

Feasibility study and

ROI completed

March 2022

Select pathway

December 2022

Develop consortium

and commercial

December 2023

Complete detailed

design and secure

consents

December 2024

Final investment

decision

Source: Contact Energy/Meridian Energy

40
Green hydrogen initial conclusions

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Global demand forecasts are

high

International focus on decarbonisation is driving large increases in demand forecasts for green

hydrogen

Countries such as Japan and South Korea have limited domestic decarbonisation options

Many potential pathwaysAmmonia and liquid hydrogen are the two likely carriers

They enable numerous use case options spanning heavy transport, power generation and

industrial process substitution

Many variablesOptimal use cases, carrier options and potential partners are unclear

Best strategy is to keep our options open for as long as possible

Economic gapThe cost of producing green hydrogen is currently significantly higher than fossil fuels.

Carbon taxes or subsidies will be key enablers

Dry year solutionMay provide 35-40% of NZ’s dry year flexibility requirement

Likely to be lowest cost option for NZ

NZ has a real opportunityThe combination of existing generation and transmission infrastructure combined with industrial

sites and port access makes NZ’s offer unique

An initial export opportunity could facilitate a lower entry cost and earlier domestic opportunity

Our overall initial assessment is

cautiously optimistic

Supported by feedback and interest from a number of ongoing external engagements

The ROI will be a critical test of this assessment

Portfolio balance
Chris Ewers

General Manager

Wholesale

412021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

42
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Role of Wholesale

The Wholesale Team are accountable for

delivering Energy Margin while simultaneously

minimising risk and volatility across time.

Specifically – we work collaboratively across

Meridian to ensure we have:

the optimal amount of committed sales going

forward

the optimal amount of plant available to

support those sales

the fuel (hydro) required to operate that

plant; and

the right amount of risk management

products to mitigate any externalities (e.g.

transmission outages/constraints) and

internal shortfalls (low hydro or signification

plant outages)

43
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Portfolio tracking

13.7

13.3

12.5

13.6

14.2

1.1

1.6

2.2

2.0

2.7

3.8

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.3

2.2

2.0

2.2

2.3

3.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.4

1.3

1.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

14.8

14.9

14.8

15.5

17.0

12.3

12.3

13.3

13.8

15.3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

TWh

Financial Year ended 30 June

physical generationhedgingmass market salesC&I salesNZAS salesfinancial sales

+2.5+2.6+1.5+1.7

+1.7

+0.7

1H FY21

2016

20172018

2019

2020

generationsales

generationsales

generationsales

generationsalesgenerationsales

Portfolio length is decreasing

Source: Meridian

44
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Lake Pūkakilow range operation

Lake Pūkakiis consented to be used

down to 513.0m

Usage below 518.0m is generally tied

to the System Operator’s Electricity

Risk Curves

Operations have been extended

down to 513.0m

Lake Pūkakioperating range schematic

532.5mtop of consented operating range

518.0mElectricity Risk Curves apply

516.4mprevious operational floor

515.0m

513.0m

bottom of consented range

Official

Conservation

Campaign

178GWh

367GWh

1,767GWh

523.8mcurrent storage (10 May)

Security of

Supply Alert

Source: Meridian

Lake Pūkakilow range operation
Since April 2020, the full Lake Pūkakistorage range has been included in our modelling and forecasting

Including the contingent storage allows a greater use of flexibility in the main range which can be seen in

the forecast distribution

Contingent storage is also included in the Electricity Risk Curves, increasing the margin

45

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Storage maintained above 518m historically

forecast mean with

contingent storage

historical mean without

contingent storage

Source: Meridian

Harapaki
Investment in Harapakiwill add length to the portfolio (542 GWh pa)

And support existing flexibility while enabling continued retail sales growth

Investment in renewables also aligns with New Zealand's move towards a highly renewable energy

system

And supporting the retirement of aging thermal plant

46

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Genesis swaption
Meridian has a swaption arrangement with

Genesis for up to 150 MW, up until the end of

2022

The swaption is a financial arrangement, which

locks in a fixed price for the volume called

Since this was agreed, Lake Pūkakicontingent

storage availability has provided additional

flexibility

Currently exploring products from 2023 onwards

with a range of parties

Demand response will likely play a more important

part going forward

47

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Smelter demand response
Under the NZAS contract, Meridian can by notice

to NZAS require a Smelter Demand Response

(SDR) when the relevant hydro storage is less

than the Dry Year Trigger Level

If Meridian gives NZAS an SDR notice, NZAS must

start to reduce electricity consumption by a date

specified by Meridian which must be between 14

and 40 days after NZAS’s receipt of Meridian’s

notice

Under an SDR, NZAS must manage its electricity

consumption to achieve a reduction in electricity

consumption of 250GWh over 130 days

With all material reductions in load occurring

within 7 days of the date that NZAS is required to

start reducing consumption

48

2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

As at 10 May, relevant hydro storage sat

101GWh above the Dry Year Trigger Level

Source: Meridian

Harapakiwind farm
Chris More

Wind Maintenance

& Development Manager

492021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

50
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Harapakisite features

Highest wind farm in NZ

– in sub-alpine altitudes

Terrain has geological

features that require

innovative solutions

Great access to site via

State Highway 5 from

Napier, being the main

port of supply

Transmission connection

is on the site. Significant

cable reticulation

connecting turbines to

the switchyard

51
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Community and Iwi

Within the TePōhuecommunity

based on the eastern side of the

range

Two iwi have ties to the region; Ngati

Hineuru and MaungaharuruTangitu

Trust

Meridian will be a good long-term

citizen and fulfil what is culturally

appropriate to iwi and also support

community led initiatives

52
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Te a m

Assembled a very experienced delivery

team with deep construction and

operational experience

Aim to use local expertise to fill site roles

as much as reasonably possible

Team disciplines aligned with contracts

thereby having commercial and technical

oversight

Strong focus on culture, environment and

sustainability through the life of the

project

53
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Delivery

Meridian has chosen the ‘Principal’

over ‘turn key’, or ‘Engineer,

Procure, Construct’ models

Enables Meridian to set, monitor

and control the Health & Safety

and performance culture on-site

Enables the complex interaction

between contractors to be

seamlessly managed within the

master programme

Allows Meridian to manage the

risks directly and deal with issues

in real time

54
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Technology

Direct Drive (DD) technology has far less

moving parts as there is no gearbox

DD turbines use less oil, have greater

ability to respond to changes in wind

strength and generally have a longer life

expectancy

Meridian previous experience with DD

technology at the Mt Millar wind farm in

South Australia, the Ross Island

installation and the Brooklyn wind

turbine

Our expectation is to consistently meet

high availability output with lower

operating costs

55
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Financials

NZ$395M capital investment

41 turbines | 176MW | 542 GWh

35% capacity factor

NZ$35M to NZ$39M EBITDAF p.a.

On a $/kW basis, Harapakiconstruction is

expected to be 17% lower than Mill Creek

The technology change to direct drive turbines

gives rise to two benefits:

Lower operational costs due to less moving

parts and consumables (no gearbox)

Greater longevity, resulting in a contracted

30-year life backed with availability warranty

Estimated LevelisedUnit Energy Cost of

NZ$62.4/MWh

Generation development
Rebecca Knott

Head of Renewable

Development

562021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

57
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Meridian’s analysis suggests 12TWh of new grid

generation by 2030 to meet 100% RE

Greater than the CCC’s Draft Advice, which

suggested 10TWh of additional system generation

by 2035

A third of that growth equates to at least 7

Meridian generation projects by 2035

Longer term analysis suggests further system

demand growth of at least another 10TWh 2035-

2050

Development challenges are significant:

Timing of new demand growth uncertain

Consenting timeframes are subjective

Long greenfieldsdevelopment timeframes

Upswing in competition for options

Development context

+10TWh

Source: Climate Change Commission Draft Advice January 2021

58
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Frequent builds will be needed just to meet a portion of the CCC’s projected system growth

Development focus is on finding, consenting and holding options, not the timing of builds

Development scenario

Harapaki

7+ additional projects

North Island battery

Source: Meridian

59
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Pipeline of 1.9GW (4,400GWh)

Consented sites will likely require re-consenting

for better technology fit

Design, development and construction timeframe

is subject to site complexity

Opportunities inevitably will not crystalise, more

development options are needed

Wind sites will come down off the ridgelines

Solar is faster to analyse, design and build than

wind

Current development pipeline

110

1,000

800

Development pipeline (MW)

consented sites

secured sites

opportunities

Source: Meridian

60
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

To build greater depth to North Island reserve

offers

In turn allowing greater HVDC North transfer and

less inter-island price differential

Potentially shared ownership with Contact Energy

Likely 100MW capacity

NZAS exit delay gives more time to consider

location and technology alternatives

Intended commissioning in 2024

North Island battery

Tesla 100-MW/129-MWh energy storage system, HornsdaleWind Farm in South

Australia. Courtesy: Tesla

61
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Ta rg e t

1,100 hectares of new plantings to grow

Meridian’s own carbon offsets (21t)

Plant Meridian land​

Partner with others land​

Purchase land (marginal land)

Long-term native biodiversity through mixed

model (exotics and natives)

Progress

60ha planted (~60k stems), 80k stems

ordered for 2021

Registration of first forests in the ETS now

underway

Forever Forests

Closing comments
Neal Barclay

Chief Executive

622021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION

63
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

NZAS exit response

NZAS contract

14Jan

2021

1 Jan

2022

1 Jan

2023

1 Jan

2024

31 Dec

2024

Meridian portfolio response

Current swaption

CUWLP

NI battery

Process heat

Data centre

Green hydrogen

on

schedule

Exploring

options

31 GWh

committed

review of

sites

review of

sites

ROI open

May 21

investor

day

Feasibility

and ROI

select

pathway

develop

consortium

design &

consents

FID

completion

go live

design &

consents

site

acquisition

tranche 1

construction,

cable laying

tranche 2

construction

>250 GWh

contracted

ECCA

funded

projects 2

ECCA

funded

projects 1

site

acquisition

design &

consents

construction

NTP

64
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

NZAS exit mostly absorbed by 2030 with modest

organic demand growth and new load (industrial

heat, data centre, EV ’s)

Supply demand balance

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024

FY2025

FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030

expected annual energy [GWh]

NZ Power System New Generation & Retirement

10 Year Outlook Exit @Feb21

EVSolar (Roof)ThermalHydroSolar (Grid)GeothermalWind

New renewable builds announced recently

support thermal retirements before 2030

With some rationalisationof existing renewables

Source: Meridian

Source: Meridian

65
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021

Engaged Lazard to assess Australian strategic

direction and options

People focus

changing world of work

health, safety and wellbeing

Closing comments

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.