Meridian Energy Investor Day Presentation
PG 1
Meridian Energy investor day presentation
11 May 2021
Attached is a presentation Meridian Energy is making at the company’s investor day today.
The presentation will commence at 10.30am New Zealand Standard Time and a live webcast will be available:
https://web.lumiagm.com/?fromUrl=362889302
The meeting ID is:
362-889-302
A replay of the investor day will also be available at
https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors/reports-and-presentations/investor-presentations
from the afternoon of Tuesday 11 May 2021.
ENDS
Neal Barclay
Chief Executive
Meridian Energy Limited
For investor relations queries, please contact:
Owen Hackston
Investor Relations Manager
021 246 4772
For media queries, please contact:
Polly Atkins
Senior Communications Specialist
021 174 1715
2021 Investor Day Presentation
11 MAY 2021
Introduction
Mark Verbiest
Chair
22021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
3
11 MAY 2021
Welcome
Welcome and introductionMark VerbiestChair
Strategy and targetsRory BlundellGroup Strategy Manager
RetailLisa HannifinChief Customer Officer
Flux FederationNic KennedyCEO Flex Federation
Future of the NZ systemGrant Te l f a rModelling Manager
South Island demand optionsGuy WaiparaGeneral Manager Development
Portfolio balanceChris EwersGeneral Manager Wholesale
Harapakiwind farmChris MoreWind Maintenance and Development Manager
Generation developmentRebecca KnottHead of Renewable Development
Closing commentsNeal BarclayChief Executive
4
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Aotearoa's future decarbonisationand the
electrification opportunity
Future dry year solutions
Meridian’s response to a 2024 NZAS exit
Three key themes
5
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
NZAS exit response
NZAS contract
14Jan
2021
1 Jan
2022
1 Jan
2023
1 Jan
2024
31 Dec
2024
Meridian portfolio response
Current swaption
CUWLP
NI battery
Process heat
Data centre
Green hydrogen
6
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Dividend policy
No changes to ordinary dividend policy proposed
(subject always to circumstances)
‘No earnings or dividend guidance’ approach will
remain in place
Current Board
Diverse skill set
Gender parity
Board rotation
Further changes planned this year
Board matters
Strategy and targets
Rory Blundell
Group Strategy Manager
72021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
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2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Strategy
Strategic
initiatives
Champion
Competitive markets
Sustainability
Climate action
Optimise
Trading & asset management
Re-consenting
Financing
Grow
Retail
Generation
Flux
Grow a clear sustainability leadership
position
Use our 5,000 GWh renewable opportunity to
fast-track NZ’s decarbonisation
NZ’s largest retail group by ICPs
A resilient wellbeing and safety culture
5-year
targets
5
th
in Colmar Brunton Better Futures
Report
1,500 GWh new demand opportunities identified
90% positive staff wellbeing and safety sentiment, deteriorating injury frequency rates
Current position
NZ’s highest customer satisfaction
Triple AusFY20 customer numbers
3 million ICP’s on Flux
3
rd
largest retail group by ICPs
5th highest customer satisfaction
6% growth in Auscustomer numbers
550,000 ICP’s on Flux
9
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Strategy
Champion
Competitive markets
Sustainability
Climate action
Optimise
Trading & asset management
Re-consenting
Financing
Grow
Retail
Generation
Flux
Regulatory and government relations
programmes drive positive change
Portfolio evolution to support continued
growth
Secure new development options
Grow the Flux client base
Shift in ourmanagement practices to accommodate increased agility and a changing world of work
Current
initiatives
New South Island demand options to
mitigate NZAS closure
Deliver Harapaki
Reduce Ausretail cost-to-serve,
advance pipeline
Customer best in class digital and
infrastructure
Covering today
Generative health and safety culture
Enterprise security
Strategic
initiatives
Retail
Lisa Hannifin
Chief Customer Officer
102021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
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2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Being delivered through volume and margin
management
Improved financial performance continues despite
increased competition and pressure on retail
margins
Significant volume growth has been achieved
through targeted acquisition across both brands
Meridian most notably in the C&I segment, whilst
Powershophas grown its Residential and Small
Business market share
Strong discipline on controllable costs despite an
increasing customer base has seen a continued
reduction in operating expenditure by ICP and
MWh
Profitable growth
92.1
93.1
91.1
96.2
100.9
FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21 F
NETBACK $/MWH
5,727
5,981
6,240
7,376
>8,000
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
20172018201920202021 est
GWh
Financial Year ended 30 June
New Zealand retail sales volumes
11
12
13
14
15
270
280
290
300
310
20172018201920202021 est
Financial Year ended 30 June
Operating Expenditure
Opex per ICP (LHS)Opex per MWh (RHS)
FY21 est
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
12
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Through disciplined execution of multi-brand strategy
The Group is delivering net growth in all segments and has
become the3rdlargest retail group in NZ
Powershoprecently surpassed a milestone 100k ICPs
The strong growth trend of small and medium retailers
continues, and Meridian’s multi-brand strategy ensures we’re
well positioned to leverage this
Sustained customer growth
Contact Energy
Genesis Energy
Mercury NZ
Meridian Energy
Small and medium retailers
Trustpower
100k
200k
300k
400k
500k
600k
2016 Mar
2016 May
2016 Jul
2016 Sep
2016 Nov
2017 Jan
2017 Mar
2017 May
2017 Jul
2017 Sep
2017 Nov
2018 Jan
2018 Mar
2018 May
2018 Jul
2018 Sep
2018 Nov
2019 Jan
2019 Mar
2019 May
2019 Jul
2019 Sep
2019 Nov
2020 Jan
2020 Mar
2020 May
2020 Jul
2020 Sep
2020 Nov
2021 Jan
2021 Mar
ICP count by Retailer
130
128
35
38
43
45
27
29
79
87
10
12
0k
100k
200k
300k
400k
FY20FY21 YTD
ICPs by Segment
Meridian RESMeridian SME
Meridian AGRMeridian CLB
Powershop RESPowershop BUS
To t a l
324
To t a l
338
Source: Electricity AuthoritySource: Electricity Authority
13
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Near completion with no major issues to date and
improved efficiencies
Over 60% of Meridian ICPs have been successfully
migrated to the Flux platform with the project due
for completion in 2021
Core platform transformation
Platform productivity benefits are being realised
with improved customer care agent to ICP
servicing ratios driven by reduced customer
interaction volumes
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
14
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
In both brands, despite core platform
transformation
Stable customer satisfaction
6
7
8
May-19Aug-19Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21
C SAT – Gentailer brands
Meridian EnergyGenesisContact Energy
MercuryTrustpowerGentailer average
6
7
8
9
May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21
C SAT –Challenger brands
Energy OnlineNova EnergyPulse Energy
PowerShopElectric KiwiChallenger average
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
15
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Meridian continues to enjoy trader churn rates
significantly below the market average
Powershop’s programmeof ‘churn busting’ work
has delivered substantial improvements to its
churn rate
Brand health continues to remain strong in both
brands –providing a platform for us to continue
sustained growth
Improving retention and market leading brand
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
12 month rolling average trader churn
PowershopMeridian EnergyWeighted Market Average
Source: Electricity Authority
Source: Meridian
EV Charging Network
Meridian is launching a nationwide network of more than
200 EV chargers to help build real momentum for the
switch to electric as electrification of transport is one of
the biggest ways to help combat climate change
Process Heat Electrification Programme
Accelerating New Zealand’s transition away from fossil
fuels by supporting customers to electrify their process
heat through competitive pricing, long term pricing
certainty and funding support
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2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Innovation and delivery with a decarbonisationfocus
ECertifiedRenewable Energy
A market leading product that aligns with customers’ sustainability goals providing an accredited alternative to carbon
offsetting, enabling businesses to report their Scope 2 electricity emissions as zero
Commercial Solar
Meridian offers solutions to businesses that want to lead the way to a renewable energy future with an array of
options to go solar
17
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Our way of working continues to evolve
Flux Federation
Move faster, price smarter & integrate widely
Nic Kennedy, CEOMay 2021
Flux Federation | May 2021
Flux empowersvisionary companies leading the energy transition;
enabling them to respondto changing generation, distribution
and consumption models by moving faster, pricing smarter and
integrating widely.
FLUX FEDERATION VISION
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
19
FLUX’S ROLE IN THE MERIDIAN GROUP
Flux Federation | May 2021
Flux creates value for
the Meridian Group in
three ways...
1. Providing the best retail platform in
market to the Meridian Group
retailers
2. Selling that platform to other
retailers to capture revenue for the
Meridian Group
3. Building the enterprise value of the
Flux asset
20
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
INTRODUCING FLUX FEDERATION
Flux Federation | May 2021
Enabling retailers to
move faster, price
smarter and integrate
widely
●100% owned by Meridian Energy
●250+ staff globally
●Remote-first operations
●World class Exec team
●Targeting growth in AU, NZ and UK, in mass
market, SME and C&I
Flux provides deep industry knowledge and assists
clients with:
●Energy retail best practice
●Operational improvements
●Cost savings
●Risk reduction
●Digital transformation and change management
●Data insights
21
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
MARKET DEMAND ACCELERATING
Flux Federation | May 2021
“Energy retailers
globally are being
challenged like never
before.”
-
McKinsey
Energy transition challenges - the 3D’s:
●Digitisation
●Decentralisation
●Decarbonisation
On top of:
●Increasing regulation
●Changing competition landscape
●Decreasing margin
●Challenging stakeholder demands
●Low in-house change and digital skills/talent
22
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
COMPETITION
Flux Federation | May 2021
New entrant tech
companies see great
opportunity in the
energy transition
Incumbents
●SAP
●Gentrack
●Oracle
●Agility
New entrants
●Flux (Meridian)
●Kaluza(Ovo)
●Kraken (Octopus)
●Ensek
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2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
LOOKING AHEAD
Flux Federation | May 2021
Great things in
business are never
done by one person.
They're done by a
team of people.
-Steve Jobs
Last 12 months- Foundations for scale. Improving the
team, architecture, product, brand and delivery and
establishing strategy for growth
•Secured 101 talented people in 2020 during Covid,
all remotely
•Transformed the culture, high-performing, Remote-
first, staff satisfaction and productivity gains
•Improved client satisfaction by 30%
•Replaced Gentrack at Meridian including C&I
•Re-architected product to microservices
•Rebranded, logo, website, messaging
•Hired VP Global Sales
Next 1-2 years- Build on customer intimacy and product
leadership strategy to shape the market. New client
acquisition in UK, AU and NZ
Next 3-5 years- Expansion into Asia and the US
24
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
The future of the NZ system
with 100% renewables
Grant Telfar
Modelling Manager
252021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
Major Generation Sources
Scaled to size of mean energy contribution : 2021-23
Hydro storage
Hydro generation
Coal generation
Gas generation
Geothermal generation
Wind generation
Major load centre
HVDC link
Net transfer to NI
Thermal storage
26
Living in uncertain times: renewable energy & dry year flexibility
Hydro inflow deficits of 5TWh (20%) have historically been managed by
maintaining thermal capacity, flexible thermal fuel storage, and flexible
thermal fuel deliveries
Newly committed wind and geothermal projects (2.7TWh) will move the
system to 90% renewable over the next few years
The Government has stated its intent for a 100% renewable system by 2030
They are proposing the Onslow-Manorburnpump storage scheme as a key
plank towards this goal
As more wind enters the system, it too can face extreme deficits of 8-10%.
Solar also faces deficits of up to 3-5%
A Tiwai smelter closure by the end of 2024 could see 5TWh of excess
Southland-Otago generation attempting to flow northward
In response to this regional energy imbalance, large-scale demand
stimulation projects are being pursued
Significant new demand in Southland that is alsoflexible could address
regional energy balance andcreate an alternative mechanism for dry-years
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Source: Meridian
27
Changes to the power system by 2030
A large volume of new renewable energy (RE) generation is
needed: 12TWh, 3GW, and $7B of new gridgeneration
A secure power system can be achieved multiple ways:
retaining thermal generation, 99% RE possible
with Onslow, system overbuild, or large-scale demand
flexibility, 100% RE possible
All solutions rely on other power system components also
flexing: dispatchable demand, renewable spill, batteries, ...
The pace of change and sheer scale of this challenge is
enormous, regardless of the dry-year flexibility solution
Wide-reaching changes are expected: storage, prices, and
generation all alter dramatically from today’s expectations
Any of these solutions can do the job: a secure power system
with low carbon emissions and a high level of RE
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
85%
88%
90%
93%
95%
98%
100%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
BAU:
FY2022-24
750MW
Full H2 Flex
610MW
Dry-Year
Tiwai
400MW
Gas
Turbines
1,000MW
Onslow
750MW
Coal
Reserve
Overbuild
Overbuild +
Big PKI
% renewable energy
annual generation [TWh]
NZ Power System 2030 Generation Summary
Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies
HydroWind
Geothermal
SolarAuxiliaryThermal
Dispatchable DemandDem Response% Renewable
Costs, cost allocation, and implications for market are
more challenging for some solutions
Source: Meridian
28
Future dry year flexibility scenarios
(1) 610MW Southland demand
This could either be new or existing demand
Flex production down in times of hydro inflow scarcity,
and falling lake levels, in incremental steps
Across all hydrological history, demand reduction is
low 250GWh pa (5% of annual production)
This can vary between 0 and 1,500GWh (30% of
production) with the extreme occurring infrequently,
<1% of all inflow years
No flexibility at all is required in up to 75% of all
hydrological years
On rare occasions of extreme stress, the market could
consume the entire load of the facility (610MW) for a
number of weeks or even months
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
The need for flexibility in large scale demand is
modest but with some extreme usage seen in rare,
dry years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
50
100
150
200
250
<3,750 3,750 -
3,850
3,850 -
3,950
3,950 -
4,050
4,050 -
4,150
4,150 -
4,250
4,250 -
4,350
4,350 -
4,450
4,450 -
4,550
4,550 -
4,650
4,650 -
4,750
4,750 -
4,850
4,850 -
4,950
4,950 -
5,050
5,050 -
5,150
5,150 -
5,350
sum prob (# years)
# of years
annual generation [GWh]
Demand Consumption with Dry-Year Flexibility
Southland Stimulation; 610MW dry-year flexible H
2
; no thermal
Count
SumProb
FlexiblePivot Point
Annual
output
Source: Meridian
29
Future dry year flexibility scenarios
(2) 750MW hydrogen electrolysis plant
As per scenario #1, flex production downin times of hydro
inflow scarcity in incremental steps
Adding to this: flex production upin times of renewable
surplus: wet, sunny, windy, low demand
A “typical” running load of 550MW
The ability to increase to 750MW during periods of
surplus at lower market prices
Annual consumption the same as previous case (5TWh), a
77% capacity factor, with dry-year flexibility offered back
to the power system, up to 1.5TWh
Strong seasonality in the demand for flexibility
The distribution of potential H
2
plant loading is far
broader than was observed for dry-year demand response
only
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Benefits to the system can be significant: increasing
the overall power system capacity factor, dry-year
management, and the ability to absorb more
intermittent renewables
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
28-Jun
28-Sep
28-Dec
28-Mar
28-Jun
28-Sep
28-Dec
28-Mar
28-Jun
28-Sep
28-Dec
28-Mar
28-Jun
energy [GWh per week]
Hydrogen Electrolysis Consumption
Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies
5-25th %ile25-75th %ile75-95th %ileMinMeanMax
Weekly
output
Source: Meridian
30
Future dry year flexibility scenarios
(3) Onslow-Manorburn(simple) pumped storage
585MW of (new or old) Southland load with no flexibility
A simple 4,000GWh storage and 1,000MW power station
scheme:
25% losses: 750MW available for hydro management
and 250MW for intermittency management
Reservoir release rules determined by dynamic needs of
the power system, dispatched according to water-value:
Mean dry-year pumping load is 650GWh – ‘trickle
charge’ overnight in summer
Mean generation / releases are 325GWh. This will
increase as Lake Onslowfills. Intermittency
management contributes an extra ~125GWh
There is a clear seasonal need for generation
In extremes, up to an extra 1,500GWh of generation is
dispatched back into the market
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
The estimated $4B+
1
Onslowscheme can be a viable
dry year mechanism, along-side other sources of
flexibility
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<0 0 - 135 135 -
270
270 -
405
405 -
540
540 -
675
675 -
810
810 -
945
945 -
1,080
1,080 -
1,215
1,215 -
1,350
1,350 -
1,485
1,485 -
1,620
1,620 -
1,755
1,755 -
1,890
1,890 -
2,000
sum prob (# years)
# of years
annual generation [GWh]
Onslow-Manorburn Generation
Southland Stimulation; 750MW generator; trickle-charge pumping; No thermal
Count
SumProb
Annual
output
1
estimated cost, not including further required investment in transmission
Source: Meridian
31
Annual system costs by 2030
Over the decade, the challenge of meeting the generation
needs of a power system moving towards 99%-100% RE are
significant, regardless of the dry-year solution pursued:
13-15TWh of new generation, including roof-top PV
New capital requirements are broadly in line with energy
needs – similar between scenarios
$9.5-10B (including $1.9B of roof-top PV)
Additional costs are likely for new flexibility:
For example: H
2
= $2.5B; Onslow = $4B; gas flexibility =
$0.5B; Pukakihigh dam = $2.5B (all estimates)
Depending on how costs are socialised, dry-year load
response, reserve coal, or gas turbines could all look
significantly cheaper
System cost is not the only metric for the Government (or
regulators) to consider: carbon, security, volatility, and
investment/market stability are all important
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
BAU FY2022-24
Full H2 Flex;
750MW
Dry-year Tiwai
Flex; 610MW
Onslow; No H2
Flex; 585MW
Gas Turbines;
No H2 Flex;
585MW
Coal Reserve;
No H2 Flex;
585MW
Overbuild; No
H2 Flex
585MW
Overbuild;
Large PKI; No
H2 Flex
585MW
system costs per year [$M]
Annual NZ System Costs
Southland Stimulation & System Flexibility: all weeks, all hydrologies
Shortage
Emergency
Dem Res
Capital Annuity
Direct Tx
Carbon
Thermal Fuel
OM
TOTAL (mean)
+ flex capital
A tight range of system costs is seen between quite
different solutions to dry-year flexibility
untilthe unknown costs of flexibility are considered
Source: Meridian
32
The best source of future dry year flexibility
The scale and pace of change required to move the NZ power system to 100% renewable energy is significant
Changes expected in wholesale market outcomes and performance will be dramatic at times:
Mean modelled prices ~$80/MWh in most scenarios, but sufficient to generate a return on investment
Weekly price volatility – especially in winter – is significantly higher than seen today (4-5x)
Storage levels are held higher, creating a buffer against deficits in renewable fuel
Expected carbon emissions are low in all cases: but slightly higher for coal and gas solutions
Expected shortage is greater than today’s market but manageable
Significant renewable energy spill (wind, geothermal, solar) adds to the hydro spill seen in today’s market
There is no single solution to future dry-year flexibility that produces a desirable outcome in all situations
Of the solutions explored:
flexible demand response solutions – especially if it can manage both dry-years and intermittency; and
a gas-turbine based solution –if upstream flexibility can be delivered;
can achieve a balanced compromise of power system outcomes across a range of metrics
All dry-year solutions have the potential to help solve much of the NZ dry-year issue. Any given solution does not need to
solve it in its entirety, nor be mutually exclusive with other complementary future solutions
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
South Island demand options
Guy Waipara
General Manager
Development
332021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
34
Datagrid -overview
Manapouri has abundant, stable and very
competitive renewable energy (versus lack of
hydro power in Australia)
Southland has the coolest weather in ANZ
(average 9.8°C temperature)
Shortest distance to Australia, 20M population
within 35 millisecond latency
Existing high reliability transmission grid (built for
Tiwai) and access to “unlimited” and affordable
land
Plus – NZ provides a safe environment, well
educated workforce, state-of-the-art UFB network
- optical fibre connectivity
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Globally, data centres are expected to consume
around 8% of the world’s electricity by 2030
35
Datagrid –project update
Exclusivity arrangement - Datagridhave
rights to up to 100MW of electricity
Conditional on Datagridachieving
project milestones
Working with Great South to identify
potential sites, closure imminent
Australian DC market forecast to grow
from 500 MW in 2021 to 2200 MW in
2026.
Datagridteam believe they can service
Australia circa 30% cheaper than
domestic green options
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Source: datagrid
36
Datagrid –project timeline
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Source: datagrid
37
Process heat electrification -business
Meridian team is working with South Island industrial customers to assist with the decarbonisation and
electrification of industrial plant
Mainly replacement of coal boilers with electricity powered options
Meridian is committed to:
Potential new demand opportunity of 250GWh-500GWh pa
To date leads of 132GWh, and 31GWh of load committed
Provided a syndicated offer to large industrial user for their consideration
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
38
Green hydrogen feasibility study
A three part study:
Market scan – markets, end use cases,
logistics, NZ opportunity
Technology and engineering assessment –
development costs, technology options, health
and process safety and logistics
Dry year flexibility
Study completion by August 2021
Registration of interest due out May 2021 – test
end to end value chain
Independent Advisory Board providing project
governance
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
39
Green hydrogen project plan
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Key dates
May 2021
ROI released
August 2021
Feasibility study and
ROI completed
March 2022
Select pathway
December 2022
Develop consortium
and commercial
December 2023
Complete detailed
design and secure
consents
December 2024
Final investment
decision
Source: Contact Energy/Meridian Energy
40
Green hydrogen initial conclusions
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Global demand forecasts are
high
International focus on decarbonisation is driving large increases in demand forecasts for green
hydrogen
Countries such as Japan and South Korea have limited domestic decarbonisation options
Many potential pathwaysAmmonia and liquid hydrogen are the two likely carriers
They enable numerous use case options spanning heavy transport, power generation and
industrial process substitution
Many variablesOptimal use cases, carrier options and potential partners are unclear
Best strategy is to keep our options open for as long as possible
Economic gapThe cost of producing green hydrogen is currently significantly higher than fossil fuels.
Carbon taxes or subsidies will be key enablers
Dry year solutionMay provide 35-40% of NZ’s dry year flexibility requirement
Likely to be lowest cost option for NZ
NZ has a real opportunityThe combination of existing generation and transmission infrastructure combined with industrial
sites and port access makes NZ’s offer unique
An initial export opportunity could facilitate a lower entry cost and earlier domestic opportunity
Our overall initial assessment is
cautiously optimistic
Supported by feedback and interest from a number of ongoing external engagements
The ROI will be a critical test of this assessment
Portfolio balance
Chris Ewers
General Manager
Wholesale
412021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
42
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Role of Wholesale
The Wholesale Team are accountable for
delivering Energy Margin while simultaneously
minimising risk and volatility across time.
Specifically – we work collaboratively across
Meridian to ensure we have:
the optimal amount of committed sales going
forward
the optimal amount of plant available to
support those sales
the fuel (hydro) required to operate that
plant; and
the right amount of risk management
products to mitigate any externalities (e.g.
transmission outages/constraints) and
internal shortfalls (low hydro or signification
plant outages)
43
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Portfolio tracking
13.7
13.3
12.5
13.6
14.2
1.1
1.6
2.2
2.0
2.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.3
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.3
3.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.4
1.3
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.5
14.8
14.9
14.8
15.5
17.0
12.3
12.3
13.3
13.8
15.3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
TWh
Financial Year ended 30 June
physical generationhedgingmass market salesC&I salesNZAS salesfinancial sales
+2.5+2.6+1.5+1.7
+1.7
+0.7
1H FY21
2016
20172018
2019
2020
generationsales
generationsales
generationsales
generationsalesgenerationsales
Portfolio length is decreasing
Source: Meridian
44
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Lake Pūkakilow range operation
Lake Pūkakiis consented to be used
down to 513.0m
Usage below 518.0m is generally tied
to the System Operator’s Electricity
Risk Curves
Operations have been extended
down to 513.0m
Lake Pūkakioperating range schematic
532.5mtop of consented operating range
518.0mElectricity Risk Curves apply
516.4mprevious operational floor
515.0m
513.0m
bottom of consented range
Official
Conservation
Campaign
178GWh
367GWh
1,767GWh
523.8mcurrent storage (10 May)
Security of
Supply Alert
Source: Meridian
Lake Pūkakilow range operation
Since April 2020, the full Lake Pūkakistorage range has been included in our modelling and forecasting
Including the contingent storage allows a greater use of flexibility in the main range which can be seen in
the forecast distribution
Contingent storage is also included in the Electricity Risk Curves, increasing the margin
45
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Storage maintained above 518m historically
forecast mean with
contingent storage
historical mean without
contingent storage
Source: Meridian
Harapaki
Investment in Harapakiwill add length to the portfolio (542 GWh pa)
And support existing flexibility while enabling continued retail sales growth
Investment in renewables also aligns with New Zealand's move towards a highly renewable energy
system
And supporting the retirement of aging thermal plant
46
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Genesis swaption
Meridian has a swaption arrangement with
Genesis for up to 150 MW, up until the end of
2022
The swaption is a financial arrangement, which
locks in a fixed price for the volume called
Since this was agreed, Lake Pūkakicontingent
storage availability has provided additional
flexibility
Currently exploring products from 2023 onwards
with a range of parties
Demand response will likely play a more important
part going forward
47
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Smelter demand response
Under the NZAS contract, Meridian can by notice
to NZAS require a Smelter Demand Response
(SDR) when the relevant hydro storage is less
than the Dry Year Trigger Level
If Meridian gives NZAS an SDR notice, NZAS must
start to reduce electricity consumption by a date
specified by Meridian which must be between 14
and 40 days after NZAS’s receipt of Meridian’s
notice
Under an SDR, NZAS must manage its electricity
consumption to achieve a reduction in electricity
consumption of 250GWh over 130 days
With all material reductions in load occurring
within 7 days of the date that NZAS is required to
start reducing consumption
48
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
As at 10 May, relevant hydro storage sat
101GWh above the Dry Year Trigger Level
Source: Meridian
Harapakiwind farm
Chris More
Wind Maintenance
& Development Manager
492021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
50
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Harapakisite features
Highest wind farm in NZ
– in sub-alpine altitudes
Terrain has geological
features that require
innovative solutions
Great access to site via
State Highway 5 from
Napier, being the main
port of supply
Transmission connection
is on the site. Significant
cable reticulation
connecting turbines to
the switchyard
51
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Community and Iwi
Within the TePōhuecommunity
based on the eastern side of the
range
Two iwi have ties to the region; Ngati
Hineuru and MaungaharuruTangitu
Trust
Meridian will be a good long-term
citizen and fulfil what is culturally
appropriate to iwi and also support
community led initiatives
52
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Te a m
Assembled a very experienced delivery
team with deep construction and
operational experience
Aim to use local expertise to fill site roles
as much as reasonably possible
Team disciplines aligned with contracts
thereby having commercial and technical
oversight
Strong focus on culture, environment and
sustainability through the life of the
project
53
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Delivery
Meridian has chosen the ‘Principal’
over ‘turn key’, or ‘Engineer,
Procure, Construct’ models
Enables Meridian to set, monitor
and control the Health & Safety
and performance culture on-site
Enables the complex interaction
between contractors to be
seamlessly managed within the
master programme
Allows Meridian to manage the
risks directly and deal with issues
in real time
54
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Technology
Direct Drive (DD) technology has far less
moving parts as there is no gearbox
DD turbines use less oil, have greater
ability to respond to changes in wind
strength and generally have a longer life
expectancy
Meridian previous experience with DD
technology at the Mt Millar wind farm in
South Australia, the Ross Island
installation and the Brooklyn wind
turbine
Our expectation is to consistently meet
high availability output with lower
operating costs
55
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Financials
NZ$395M capital investment
41 turbines | 176MW | 542 GWh
35% capacity factor
NZ$35M to NZ$39M EBITDAF p.a.
On a $/kW basis, Harapakiconstruction is
expected to be 17% lower than Mill Creek
The technology change to direct drive turbines
gives rise to two benefits:
Lower operational costs due to less moving
parts and consumables (no gearbox)
Greater longevity, resulting in a contracted
30-year life backed with availability warranty
Estimated LevelisedUnit Energy Cost of
NZ$62.4/MWh
Generation development
Rebecca Knott
Head of Renewable
Development
562021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
57
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Meridian’s analysis suggests 12TWh of new grid
generation by 2030 to meet 100% RE
Greater than the CCC’s Draft Advice, which
suggested 10TWh of additional system generation
by 2035
A third of that growth equates to at least 7
Meridian generation projects by 2035
Longer term analysis suggests further system
demand growth of at least another 10TWh 2035-
2050
Development challenges are significant:
Timing of new demand growth uncertain
Consenting timeframes are subjective
Long greenfieldsdevelopment timeframes
Upswing in competition for options
Development context
+10TWh
Source: Climate Change Commission Draft Advice January 2021
58
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Frequent builds will be needed just to meet a portion of the CCC’s projected system growth
Development focus is on finding, consenting and holding options, not the timing of builds
Development scenario
Harapaki
7+ additional projects
North Island battery
Source: Meridian
59
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Pipeline of 1.9GW (4,400GWh)
Consented sites will likely require re-consenting
for better technology fit
Design, development and construction timeframe
is subject to site complexity
Opportunities inevitably will not crystalise, more
development options are needed
Wind sites will come down off the ridgelines
Solar is faster to analyse, design and build than
wind
Current development pipeline
110
1,000
800
Development pipeline (MW)
consented sites
secured sites
opportunities
Source: Meridian
60
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
To build greater depth to North Island reserve
offers
In turn allowing greater HVDC North transfer and
less inter-island price differential
Potentially shared ownership with Contact Energy
Likely 100MW capacity
NZAS exit delay gives more time to consider
location and technology alternatives
Intended commissioning in 2024
North Island battery
Tesla 100-MW/129-MWh energy storage system, HornsdaleWind Farm in South
Australia. Courtesy: Tesla
61
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Ta rg e t
1,100 hectares of new plantings to grow
Meridian’s own carbon offsets (21t)
Plant Meridian land
Partner with others land
Purchase land (marginal land)
Long-term native biodiversity through mixed
model (exotics and natives)
Progress
60ha planted (~60k stems), 80k stems
ordered for 2021
Registration of first forests in the ETS now
underway
Forever Forests
Closing comments
Neal Barclay
Chief Executive
622021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION
63
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
NZAS exit response
NZAS contract
14Jan
2021
1 Jan
2022
1 Jan
2023
1 Jan
2024
31 Dec
2024
Meridian portfolio response
Current swaption
CUWLP
NI battery
Process heat
Data centre
Green hydrogen
on
schedule
Exploring
options
31 GWh
committed
review of
sites
review of
sites
ROI open
May 21
investor
day
Feasibility
and ROI
select
pathway
develop
consortium
design &
consents
FID
completion
go live
design &
consents
site
acquisition
tranche 1
construction,
cable laying
tranche 2
construction
>250 GWh
contracted
ECCA
funded
projects 2
ECCA
funded
projects 1
site
acquisition
design &
consents
construction
NTP
64
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
NZAS exit mostly absorbed by 2030 with modest
organic demand growth and new load (industrial
heat, data centre, EV ’s)
Supply demand balance
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024
FY2025
FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
expected annual energy [GWh]
NZ Power System New Generation & Retirement
10 Year Outlook Exit @Feb21
EVSolar (Roof)ThermalHydroSolar (Grid)GeothermalWind
New renewable builds announced recently
support thermal retirements before 2030
With some rationalisationof existing renewables
Source: Meridian
Source: Meridian
65
2021 INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION11 MAY 2021
Engaged Lazard to assess Australian strategic
direction and options
People focus
changing world of work
health, safety and wellbeing
Closing comments
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.