MLN – June 2021 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for May was down
(0.9%), while the adjusted NAV was down (1.1%). This
compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid
Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which
was up 0.4%.
Developed market equities managed to gain +1.5% in May.
Equity markets were muted given the robust economic
data reflecting the strong start to the year for stocks.
Expectations of stronger economic growth and inflation
favoured the value factor over the growth factor. MSCI
World Value rose 3.0% and MSCI World Growth fell 0.1%.
US corporate earnings for the first quarter, which wrapped
up in May were much stronger than expected. S&P 500
companies reported earnings growth of 47% (year-on-year)
relative to consensus expectations for 20% growth. Despite
the strong earnings performance, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%
in May, but the more expensive technology and consumer
discretionary sectors, which make up 40% of the index,
came under pressure.
After a relatively slow start, vaccination rates in Europe
have picked up. Across the major economies, jabs are
being provided to around 0.8% of the population per day,
in line with the UK. At this pace, the eurozone will soon
have provided at least one dose to the over 50s. The
expectations for growth rebound this year have therefore
risen and this has helped European equities. The MSCI
Europe ex-UK Index rose 2.8% in May, the best performing
major equity index.
Portfolio Developments
Gartner (+18%) reported strong earnings across all three
segments (research, consulting and events). The company
raised its full year earnings guidance by over 20%, which
still excludes the upside from the resumption of in-person
conferences later this year. We have increased conviction
in company given recent performance. Specifically, Gartner
can move beyond IT research into other business verticals,
maintain high customer retention rates, and lastly, improve
profitability. Given the improving outlook for the business,
we increased our holding in Gartner during the month.
Adidas (+17%) started the month at depressed levels
on concerns around China sales as influencers in
China sought to punish the company, along with other
multinationals, for comments European countries had
made concerning China’s use of manual labour in cotton
production. Shares bounced back as Adidas reported
strong sales for the quarter in other regions as well as lifting
their full year revenue guidance. Direct-to-consumer and
e-commerce sales continue to drive strong performance
and improve profitability at the sportswear giant.
Dollar Tree (-16%) fell during the month. The company
reported earnings, which came below market expectations
as freight costs were a greater cost headwind than
expected. We view freight as a transitory issue and remain
optimistic around the company’s future. The company’s
Dollar Tree banner, which till recently only sold items for
$1, has introduced $3 and $5 items. This should increase
sales per store and profitability. Also, the turnaround at the
Family Dollar banner, which sells everyday needs, continues
to progress well with store renovations and the introduction
of combo Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores providing a
meaningful sales uplift.
Addition
We added home builder, NVR to the portfolio in May.
NVR is the 4th largest homebuilder in the US. Unlike
most homebuilders, which are also land developers, NVR
focuses solely on homebuilding, using options to control
land, which gives them the right but not the obligation to
buy lots on a just-in-time basis. NVR also differentiates
itself from peers by pre-fabricating frames, roofs, staircases
in one of its eight manufacturing facilities. Most of NVR
competitors still do everything on site. NVR’s asset-light
model, central pre-fabrication and local economies of
scale allow NVR to generate higher returns on investment
capital than peers, and grow more rapidly without having
to reinvest much capital. Combined with what is a very
fragmented market comprising many small players, these
advantaged should allow NVR to take market share and
deliver superior returns for many years to come.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
June 2021
MLN NAV
$
1. 2 4
$
1. 4 8
Share Price
Warrant PricePREMIUM
1
$
0.24 24.3
%
as at 31 May 2021
2
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 May 2021
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 May 2021
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT
FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE
FEE HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.94
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
189m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$280m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
35
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
9
%
HEALTH CARE
16
%
FINANCIALS
24
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 May 2021
12
%
ASIA
73
%
NORTH AMERICA
3
%
INDUSTRIALS
1
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
12
%
13
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
Exits
We exited three smaller positions during May. The first was
TJX. While we believe the company should continue to
take market share thanks to their unique value proposition,
our thinking has developed around profit margins. The
off-price business model, which TJX runs, is very labour
intensive. Especially in the supply chain with manual sorting,
picking and packing. A higher probability of wage inflation
led us to reallocate our TJX holding into portfolio company,
Dollar General, which we consider to be cheaper, equally
well run and having better growth prospects.
Aerospace aftermarket supplier, Heico, was added to your
portfolio in 2020 following a 50% decline during COVID. A
large part of the company’s revenue is tied to the recovery
in air travel. Even so, Heico’s share price has benefited from
the COVID reopening narrative and now trades around
5% above pre-COVID levels, despite a full recovery in air
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
travel being a couple of years away. We think this is overly
optimistic and that there were better opportunities to reinvest
the capital in other portfolio holdings.
Lastly, we exited our position in optical product manufacturer
and retailer, EssilorLuxottica. We invested in the company
in 2017 following the announcement of the merger of Essilor
and Luxottica. The merger created a vertically integrated
industry leader, with significant synergy benefits. This thesis
has largely played out and with shares now near all-time
highs we decided to redeploy funds into NVR.
WEST
EUROPE
3
MAY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
Typically the Marlin portfolio will be invested 90% or more in equities.
GARTNER
+18
%
ADIDAS
+17
%
ALIBABA
-7
%
DOLLAR TREE
-11
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 May 2021
FACEBOOK
11
%
ALPHABET
7
%
ALIBABA
7
%
SIGNATURE BANK
6
%
TENCENT
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.50
$
0.00
$
1.50
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
3.50
$
4.00
$
4.50
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
$
2.50
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 May 2021
PERFORMANCE to 31 May 2021
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+4.7%+19.5%+74.9%+34.7%+25.7%
Adjusted NAV Return(1.1%)+8.9%+32.7%+19.2%+17.8%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (0.9%)+9.5%+39.9%+23.6%+22.2%
Benchmark Index^+0.4%+7.8%+34.5%+11.2%+12.8%
^Benchmark index: World Small Cap Gross Index until 30 September 2015 & S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD) from 1 October 2015
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
FLOOR AND DÉCOR
-15
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was
announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May
2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were
listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.
(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/
emailed to shareholders in early May 2021).
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment
of the warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is
20 May 2022
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest
according to the Management
Agreement and other written
policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts) have prime responsibility
for managing the Marlin portfolio.
Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based
in Takapuna, Auckland
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Alistair
Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,
Andy Coupe and Carmel
Fisher.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.