KFL – June 2021 Quarterly Newsletter
To long-term investors, most market information is noise
The market is easily distracted by short-term effects and confused
by an ever-growing tide of data. The real skill is in filtering valuable
information out of market noise – and using that information to guide a
longer-term view.
Twenty years ago, information was scarce. Back then, investors who
could get the right information had a real advantage. Today, investors
often have far too much market information.
Two of our larger positions during the quarter reminded us not to
get distracted by market noise. The management of Fisher & Paykel
Healthcare and Auckland Airport think long-term.
We bought Fisher & Paykel Healthcare when the market
over-reacted to negative news
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s Optiflow technology became the global
standard for treating COVID last year. Demand for Optiflow surged.
However, for the last 15 months, the market has been desperately
trying to pre-empt and price the end of that surge. The market thought it
saw the end of the surge in May, when the company delivered weaker-
than-expected results, and an uncertain short-term outlook saw the share
price fall by 15%.
To us, a key attraction of the company is its exceptionally long runway
for growth. Around 50 million acute respiratory-illness patients a year
would benefit from the Optiflow product. With Optiflow currently
treating less than 10 million patients, we believe there is capacity
to serve more. Investors who focus on the short-term, post-COVID
slowdown in demand, may end up limiting their potential participation
in this forecast runway for growth.
We bought more Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stock when the market’s
knee-jerk reaction to short-term noise made the price attractive.
Auckland Airport investors looked to the long-term despite
negative news
Recent negative news included the stop-start trans-Tasman bubble, the
pending departure of CEO Adrian Littlewood, and near-term earnings
downgrades. Despite these short-term headwinds, the stock is broadly
in-line with where it was at the end of March 2021, helped by news
of a take-over bid for Sydney Airport. This is encouraging because it
means investors are focusing on the long-term picture. We will travel
again and when you own a long-life, critical infrastructure asset,
looking at the long-term picture is exactly the right thing to do.
Other portfolio news
a2 Milk has rallied almost 40% from its intra-quarter lows
a2 Milk has experienced a volatile share price over the quarter, as
challenges with distribution and pricing influenced share price valuations.
Product pricing on key online platforms recovered from recent lows, and
its sales rankings on major e-commerce platforms, Tmall and JD.com are
at similar levels to last year.
We have been expecting to see this recovery for some time, but we want
to see signs that the recovery will be sustained. These positives followed
another disappointing earnings downgrade during the quarter and the
unexpected departure of Peter Nathan, leader of the Asia-Pacific business.
Mainfreight outperformed again and delivered a strong
2021 result
Sales and profit growth accelerated strongly in the second half of
the financial year, especially in Europe and the US. The company is
continuing to ‘fatten’ its network, driving higher line-haul utilisation,
and opening new warehouses – which helps win new customers.
The business is expanding geographically with the new Air & Ocean
freight-forwarding branches becoming profitable and growing the
company’s freight flows. Momentum has continued into the 2022
financial year.
We upgraded our target weight during the quarter. The business is
executing well against its strategy and remains a high-conviction
position.
Infratil announced it was buying Pacific Radiology Group
Pacific Radiology is New Zealand’s largest provider of diagnostic
imaging with 46 clinics and 90 radiologists. This is Infratil’s second
investment in diagnostic imaging, after acquiring Qscan late last
year. The investment thesis is based on strong industry growth
dynamics.
Once the proceeds are received from the sale of Tilt (expected 3
August), Infratil will be in a position to buy more companies in the
Australasian diagnostic imaging industry.
Summerset Group reported strong quarterly sales and
best-ever resales figures
The company appointed Mark Verbiest as Chairman and Will Wright
as CFO during the quarter.
Ryman Healthcare lost its CEO and we reduced our target
weight
The company announced that Gordon McLeod, a company veteran
of 14 years, including almost 5 years as CEO, was resigning.
We are disappointed with Gordon’s departure, as he has been
an inspirational leader and leaves without a plan in place for a
successor.
We reduced our target weight in Ryman during the quarter.
NZ still underperforming global markets
This quarter the New Zealand share market was again one of
the worst performing markets among the developed countries.
Four factors drove this poor performance. First, the economy
underperformed. Second, 10-year bond rates nearly doubled. Third,
the NZX50 has five times more defensives – companies sensitive to
interest rates - than other global markets. Finally, few New Zealand
companies can be classified as cyclical or reopening plays.
1
Share price Premium to NAV (using NAV to four decimal places).
QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER
1 April 2021 – 30 June 2021
KFL NAV
$
1.76
$
2.02
Share Price
PREMIUM
1
14.6
%
as at 30 June 2021
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
15 July 2021
1
2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is
by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or
completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial
adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund
performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.
3 Months
3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+8.3%+26.2%+20.2%
Adjusted NAV Return+1.7%+16.5%+15.7%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +1.9%+19.7%+18.5%
S&P/NZX50G Index+0.7%+12.3%+12.9%
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross
performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures
is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital
allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,
before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price
performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to
shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment
plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant
expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total
shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-
GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the
policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/
LISTED COMPANIES% Holding
Auckland Intl Airport8.8%
Contact Energy4.9%
Delegat Group3.2%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare14.9%
Freightways4.0%
Infratil15.3%
Mainfreight19.6%
Meridian Energy0.9%
Port of Tauranga2.3%
Pushpay Holdings1.5%
Ryman Healthcare4.6%
Summerset8.6%
The A2 Milk Company4.1%
Vista Group International4.1%
Equity Total96.8%
New Zealand dollar cash3.2%
TOTAL100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY
as at 30 June 2021
COMPANY NEWS
Dividend Paid 25 June 2021
A dividend of 3.60 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders on 25 June 2021 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest in Kingfish’s
dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with 41% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%
discount to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar, Computershare on (09) 488 8777.
PERFORMANCE
as at 30 June 2021
Kingfish Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand
Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz
If you would like to receive future
newsletters electronically please email
us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
IMPACTING THE PORTFOLIO
DURING THE QUARTER
CONTACT
ENERGY
+18
%
FREIGHTWAYS
+12
%
RYMAN
HEALTHCARE
- 13
%
PUSHPAY
- 13
%
A2 MILK
COMPANY
-25
%
FOREIGN TAX COMPLIANCE ACT (FATCA) AND COMMON REPORTING
STANDARD (CRS)
As a result of the New Zealand Government agreeing to participate in the exchange of information with other jurisdictions under the Foreign Tax
Compliance Act (FATCA) and Common Reporting Standard (CRS), Financial Institutions are required to undertake due diligence to determine the
account holders’ jurisdiction of tax residence. All shareholders will have received a Tax Residency Self-Certification form from Computershare
depending on when they first purchased their securities. Please ensure you complete and return this important document if you have not already
done so. For more information please visit the IRD website: https://www.ird.govt.nz/international-tax/exchange-of-information/crs/registration-and-
reporting or contact Computershare if you are unsure of whether you have completed your form.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.