MLN – December 2021 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for November was down by
(2.5%), while the adjusted NAV return was down by (2.0%). This
compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P
Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down by
(0.6%).
Marlin lagged the market in November. The underperformance
was caused by weaker than expected financial results from
three of our portfolio companies – PayPal, StoneCo and
Alibaba.
For markets, November started well, but equity markets faded
into the end of the month, with the MSCI World Index finishing
2.3% lower due to rising Covid hospitalisations in parts of
Europe, concerns over the new Omicron variant and a more
hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve.
The effectiveness of vaccines against the new Omicron variant
is currently unknown, and this will clearly be a key issue to
monitor over the coming weeks. However, even if vaccine
efficacy is reduced, drug companies seem confident that they
will be able to produce new vaccines to address the new strain
relatively quickly. New antiviral pills should also provide a further
lever to help reduce hospitalisations when they are available in
the coming months.
Portfolio Developments
Dollar Tree (+24%) a US discount retailer, was the top
performer in the portfolio for the second month running. Shares
rallied following disclosure that activist, Mantle Ridge had taken
a sizeable equity stake and the company was moving away
from its fixed $1 price point. Regarding Mantle Ridge, not many
details have been released yet aside from the involvement of
Richard Dreiling, the former CEO of Dollar General, who led the
firm during its turnaround in 2008. This is a positive as Dollar
Tree tries to close the performance gap between their Family
Dollar banner and now best-in-class Dollar General.
Management also announced they were ‘breaking the buck’
at the Dollar Tree banner and rolling out a new US$1.25 price
point to all c.8,000 Dollar Tree stores. Freight costs have been
a significant headwind for the company recently, and Dollar
Tree expects the 25c price increase to offset cost inflation and
help lift profit margins back to historical levels. Even with this
price increase, we still believe Dollar Tree retains a very strong
customer value proposition compared to peers.
US homebuilder NVR (+7%) rose along with the homebuilder’s
index for the month. Housing data in the US continues to show
a robust demand environment. As supply chain headwinds
stabilise, we expect homebuilders to deliver strong growth as
they work through their large backlogs of new housing orders.
Signature Bank (+1.5%) continues to perform well. An
update during November was further evidence that the bank
is outdistancing peers in loan and deposit growth. While 2021
has been a standout year with assets up 70% year-over-year,
we continue to think the company can produce robust growth
going forward. The bank has a unique operating model of
acquiring established teams, which allows Signature to enter
new regions and markets. With best-in-class profitability and
excess cash on the balance sheet to deploy, earnings should
grow ahead of revenue.
PayPal (-21%) sold off in November after the company
lowered its 2021 revenue guidance and provided 2022 growth
expectations that were below market expectations. On the
positive side, Paypal announced a deal with Amazon which
should add incremental volume over time and the company is
gaining traction in the buy now, pay later space.
Alibaba (-23%) was down in November after reporting earnings
that showed growth slowing in the company’s e-commerce
business, due to economic headwinds and competition. Over
time, there are three variables that will drive Alibaba’s share
price. These are, e-commerce market share, profit margins and
the level of new investment required to keep driving growth. We
think the market is being too negative on the eventual outcome
of all of these drivers and we remain confident that growth in
Alibaba’s core e-commerce business will eventually accelerate.
We also remain positive on the company’s international retail
and cloud computing segments which are both growing
strongly.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
December 2021
Warrant Price
$
0.20
$
1. 5 2
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
1. 2 3 27.7
%
as at 30 November 2021
2
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 30 November 2021
KEY DETAILS
as at 30 November 2021
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.25
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
192m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$291m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
36
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
9
%
HEALTH CARE
15
%
FINANCIALS
25
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 30 November 2021
10
%
ASIA
76
%
NORTH
AMERICA
3
%
INDUSTRIALS
1
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
12
%
13
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
StoneCo (-54%), a Brazilian payment service provider, was the
worst performer in the portfolio in November. While StoneCo’s
third quarter earnings showed that it continues to grow its
customer base and payment volumes rapidly, profitability
missed expectations and weighed heavily on the company’s
share price.
The main concern from the earnings release was the company’s
rising financial expenses due to increasing interest rates, which
it has not yet been able to pass on to customers. This created
a material headwind to profit margins. StoneCo also signalled
that it would increase investment into their portfolio of products
and services they offer to support further growth and market
share gains, but signalled this will also dampen profit margins
in the near-term. The positive news in the quarter was that the
company continues to sign on new customers at a rapid rate,
more than doubling the client base in the past year to 1.3 million
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
WEST
EUROPE
active clients. The company is also witnessing accelerating
payment volume growth (+81% year-on-year) and reported a
record market share gain for the quarter.
We were disappointed by StoneCo’s results and are doing more
research to understand the company’s competitive position and
ability to pass through higher interest rates to customers. We
believe that the long-term tailwinds behind the company are still
intact, and the company’s strategy and products are still being
well received by customers.
3
NOVEMBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
DOLLAR TREE
+24
%
BOSTON
SCIENTIFIC
-12
%
PAYPAL
-21
%
STONECO
-23
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 30 November 2021
META PLATFORMS
(Previously FACEBOOK)
10
%
ALPHABET
7
%
TENCENT
7
%
SIGNATURE BANK
6
%
ALIBABA
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 30 November 2021
PERFORMANCE to 30 November 2021
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(0.9%)+0.4%+29.1%+34.0%+26.6%
Adjusted NAV Return(2.0%)(3.6%)+20.7%+21.7%+19.2%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (2.5%)(3.5%)+24.0%+25.6%+23.3%
Benchmark Index^(0.6%)(1.0%)+21.7%+14.3%+13.0%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
ALIBABA
-54
%
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was
announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May
2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were
listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.
(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/
emailed to shareholders in early May 2021)
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the Shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment
of the Warrants and ending on the last Business
Day before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin. Dividends totalling 7.43 cents per share have
been declared to date and there is one more dividend
expected to be declared in the remaining period up to
the announcement of the 20 May 2022 exercise price.
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is
20 May 2022
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest
according to the Management
Agreement and other written
policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts) have prime responsibility
for managing the Marlin portfolio.
Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based
in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Alistair
Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,
Andy Coupe and David
McClatchy.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.