MLN – February 2022 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for November was down (4.1%),
while the adjusted NAV return was down (3.8%). This compared with
our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was down (4.1%).
Equity markets had a volatile start to 2022 on the back of inflation,
central bank tightening concerns, and tensions in Eastern Europe.
Developed market equities declined 5.3% in January, while emerging
markets ended the month down only 1.9%. Energy and financial
stocks outperformed on rising oil and gas prices and higher interest
rates, driving the largest monthly outperformance of value stocks
versus growth stocks in over 20 years. The MSCI World Value
Index fell 1.2% while MSCI World Growth Index fell 9.3%. Marlin’s
underperformance was driven partly by this broad-based selling
pressure on growth stocks.
The US market is seeing a strong start to Q4 earnings, with 75% of
companies beating analyst expectations. Companies that beat on
earnings outperformed by 1.1%, while companies that missed faced
more severe market reactions, falling 3.6% on average. This dynamic
of indiscriminate selling of companies that temporarily disappoint can
create attractive investment opportunities in markets, and we started
to take advantage of this volatility during the month by adding Netflix
to the portfolio.
Portfolio Changes
Netflix is the world’s leading streaming service with 222 million
members in over 190 countries. A member pays approximately
US$12 per month to access TV series, documentaries, feature films
and mobile games across a wide range of genres and languages.
Netflix recognised the importance of original content early on,
launching its first series (House of Cards) in 2013. Since then, Netflix
has reinvested most of its cash flow in creating award winning
original content that can only be accessed with a Netflix subscription.
The company’s scale in content creation and ability to spread this
cost over its huge global audience base gives it a significant cost
advantage versus peers. It can create more content than its peers, at
a lower cost per subscriber, allowing it to continually improve its user
value proposition. We believe this advantage will only get stronger
with time. This scale and content advantage, combined with a large
global addressable market (750m potential subscribers ex-China)
and pricing power supports our view that Netflix is a quality business
with a wide moat, large growth opportunity, and an exceptional
management team.
While we have long admired the company, it has always traded at
a valuation we viewed as too expensive. With the sell-off in growth
stocks in recent months, and what we see as some temporary
headwinds facing Netflix (it issued weaker than expect growth
guidance for Q1 2022), we were able to buy Netflix at a 45% discount
to its November highs. Temporary swings in subscriber growth are
not new to Netflix and can be impacted by the timing of content
releases, pricing changes and macroeconomic developments –
but we believe its large and growing lead in content will ensure it
continues to gain subscribers for many years to come. We also
remain confident in the company’s ability to continue raising prices at
a rate that lags the value of the content it delivers. Netflix has made
wide-scale price increases every other year since 2015, with the price
of a standard subscription increasing 6% p.a. or 55% cumulatively in
the last 7 years. Despite these price increases, a Netflix subscription
still presents incredible user value compared to satellite of cable
television.
Exit
We exited Adidas in January to make way for Netflix and other
portfolio changes. We bought Adidas in late 2014 on share price
weakness that was driven by sanctions in Russia, issues in its golf
division, and underearning in the US market. These issues proved to
be transitory, and Adidas has made a remarkable recovery in recent
years. Delivering strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
After the initial turnaround we continued to hold Adidas, given it was
making a successful shift to sell more product through more lucrative
direct-to-consumer and e-commerce channels (where the company
can earn higher gross margins and profit dollars). Today we believe
this thesis is fully understood by the market, and outperformance
from here will likely require the company to deliver positive surprises
on product development and / or turning around its China business.
With the recent cotton controversy and resurgence of domestic
Chinese brands, the outlook for growth isn’t as clear as for other
names in our portfolio.
Portfolio News
Earnings season has begun, with seven portfolio companies reporting
during the month.
Mastercard (+8%) shares rose as the company reported fourth
quarter earnings and revenue ahead of expectations. Mastercard
reiterated expectations for cross border travel to recover to pre-
pandemic levels by the end of 2022 given the potentially shorter-
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
February 2022
Warrant Price
$
0.10
$
1. 3 3
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
1. 2 1 12.2
%
as at 31 January 2022
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 January 2022
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.23
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
193m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$256m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
term nature of Omicron, and they also reaffirmed their three-year
performance objectives of delivering 20% plus earnings growth that
were set out at the latest Investor Community Day in November
2021.
Tencent (+6%) and Alibaba (+6%) were aided by improving
sentiment on China’s technology sector. The pace of new regulations
has eased, and Government officials’ comments have become
increasingly positive on the sector. During the month, China’s
cyberspace regulator provided reassurance that tech companies
continue to play an important role in the nation’s economic
development.
In addition to the wider underperformance of growth stocks,
Edwards Lifesciences (-16%) sold-off following the reporting of
fourth quarter earnings, with the company reporting lower-than-
expected revenue growth, as rising COVID cases impacted the
US hospital system. We believe these headwinds are temporary
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
and continue to focus more on the large global opportunity for the
treatment of heart disease which the company set out at its recent
investor day.
The other main detractors include Greggs, Floor and Décor,
and Icon. The underlying fundamentals of these companies are
unchanged (in fact, Icon guided to higher-than-expected earnings
during the month) and we still see strong long-term growth prospects.
We have taken the opportunity to increase our weight in some of
these names following the sell-off.
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 January 2022
31
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
9
%
HEALTH CARE
17
%
FINANCIALS
27
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 January 2022
8
%
ASIA
76
%
NORTH
AMERICA
3
%
INDUSTRIALS
1
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
11
%
13
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
WEST
EUROPE
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
3
JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
GREGGS
-20
%
FLOOR AND DECOR
HOLDINGS
-16
%
FIRST REPUBLIC
BANK
-16
%
ICON PLC
-16
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2022
META PLATFORMS
(Previously FACEBOOK)
10
%
TENCENT
7
%
ALPHABET
7
%
PAYPAL
6
%
ALIBABA GROUP
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2022
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(11.4%)(13.0%)+13.1%+29.2%+22.8%
Adjusted NAV Return(3.8%)(1.9%)+19.2%+21.3%+18.9%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (4.1%)(2.3%)+21.4%+25.1%+22.8%
Benchmark Index^(4.1%)(1.6%)+15.2%+14.3%+12.2%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
EDWARDS
LIFESCIENCES
-14
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was
announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May
2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were
listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.
(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/
emailed to shareholders in early May 2021)
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the Shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment
of the Warrants and ending on the last Business
Day before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin. Dividends totalling 7.43 cents per share have
been declared to date and there is one more dividend
expected to be declared in the remaining period up to
the announcement of the 20 May 2022 exercise price
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is
20 May 2022
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest
according to the Management
Agreement and other written
policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts) have prime responsibility
for managing the Marlin portfolio.
Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based
in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Alistair
Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,
Andy Coupe and David
McClatchy.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.