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MLN – February 2022 monthly update

Operational Update10 February 2022MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for November was down (4.1%),

while the adjusted NAV return was down (3.8%). This compared with

our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was down (4.1%).

Equity markets had a volatile start to 2022 on the back of inflation,

central bank tightening concerns, and tensions in Eastern Europe.

Developed market equities declined 5.3% in January, while emerging

markets ended the month down only 1.9%. Energy and financial

stocks outperformed on rising oil and gas prices and higher interest

rates, driving the largest monthly outperformance of value stocks

versus growth stocks in over 20 years. The MSCI World Value

Index fell 1.2% while MSCI World Growth Index fell 9.3%. Marlin’s

underperformance was driven partly by this broad-based selling

pressure on growth stocks.

The US market is seeing a strong start to Q4 earnings, with 75% of

companies beating analyst expectations. Companies that beat on

earnings outperformed by 1.1%, while companies that missed faced

more severe market reactions, falling 3.6% on average. This dynamic

of indiscriminate selling of companies that temporarily disappoint can

create attractive investment opportunities in markets, and we started

to take advantage of this volatility during the month by adding Netflix

to the portfolio.

Portfolio Changes

Netflix is the world’s leading streaming service with 222 million

members in over 190 countries. A member pays approximately

US$12 per month to access TV series, documentaries, feature films

and mobile games across a wide range of genres and languages.

Netflix recognised the importance of original content early on,

launching its first series (House of Cards) in 2013. Since then, Netflix

has reinvested most of its cash flow in creating award winning

original content that can only be accessed with a Netflix subscription.

The company’s scale in content creation and ability to spread this

cost over its huge global audience base gives it a significant cost

advantage versus peers. It can create more content than its peers, at

a lower cost per subscriber, allowing it to continually improve its user

value proposition. We believe this advantage will only get stronger

with time. This scale and content advantage, combined with a large

global addressable market (750m potential subscribers ex-China)

and pricing power supports our view that Netflix is a quality business

with a wide moat, large growth opportunity, and an exceptional

management team.

While we have long admired the company, it has always traded at

a valuation we viewed as too expensive. With the sell-off in growth

stocks in recent months, and what we see as some temporary

headwinds facing Netflix (it issued weaker than expect growth

guidance for Q1 2022), we were able to buy Netflix at a 45% discount

to its November highs. Temporary swings in subscriber growth are

not new to Netflix and can be impacted by the timing of content

releases, pricing changes and macroeconomic developments –

but we believe its large and growing lead in content will ensure it

continues to gain subscribers for many years to come. We also

remain confident in the company’s ability to continue raising prices at

a rate that lags the value of the content it delivers. Netflix has made

wide-scale price increases every other year since 2015, with the price

of a standard subscription increasing 6% p.a. or 55% cumulatively in

the last 7 years. Despite these price increases, a Netflix subscription

still presents incredible user value compared to satellite of cable

television.

Exit

We exited Adidas in January to make way for Netflix and other

portfolio changes. We bought Adidas in late 2014 on share price

weakness that was driven by sanctions in Russia, issues in its golf

division, and underearning in the US market. These issues proved to

be transitory, and Adidas has made a remarkable recovery in recent

years. Delivering strong revenue growth and margin expansion.

After the initial turnaround we continued to hold Adidas, given it was

making a successful shift to sell more product through more lucrative

direct-to-consumer and e-commerce channels (where the company

can earn higher gross margins and profit dollars). Today we believe

this thesis is fully understood by the market, and outperformance

from here will likely require the company to deliver positive surprises

on product development and / or turning around its China business.

With the recent cotton controversy and resurgence of domestic

Chinese brands, the outlook for growth isn’t as clear as for other

names in our portfolio.

Portfolio News

Earnings season has begun, with seven portfolio companies reporting

during the month.

Mastercard (+8%) shares rose as the company reported fourth

quarter earnings and revenue ahead of expectations. Mastercard

reiterated expectations for cross border travel to recover to pre-

pandemic levels by the end of 2022 given the potentially shorter-

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

February 2022

Warrant Price

$

0.10

$

1. 3 3

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

1. 2 1 12.2

%


as at 31 January 2022

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 31 January 2022

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.23

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

193m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$256m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

term nature of Omicron, and they also reaffirmed their three-year

performance objectives of delivering 20% plus earnings growth that

were set out at the latest Investor Community Day in November

2021.

Tencent (+6%) and Alibaba (+6%) were aided by improving

sentiment on China’s technology sector. The pace of new regulations

has eased, and Government officials’ comments have become

increasingly positive on the sector. During the month, China’s

cyberspace regulator provided reassurance that tech companies

continue to play an important role in the nation’s economic

development.

In addition to the wider underperformance of growth stocks,

Edwards Lifesciences (-16%) sold-off following the reporting of

fourth quarter earnings, with the company reporting lower-than-

expected revenue growth, as rising COVID cases impacted the

US hospital system. We believe these headwinds are temporary

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

and continue to focus more on the large global opportunity for the

treatment of heart disease which the company set out at its recent

investor day.

The other main detractors include Greggs, Floor and Décor,

and Icon. The underlying fundamentals of these companies are

unchanged (in fact, Icon guided to higher-than-expected earnings

during the month) and we still see strong long-term growth prospects.

We have taken the opportunity to increase our weight in some of

these names following the sell-off.

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 31 January 2022

31

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

9

%

HEALTH CARE

17

%


FINANCIALS

27

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 31 January 2022

8

%

ASIA

76

%

NORTH

AMERICA

3

%

INDUSTRIALS

1

%


SOUTH AMERICA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

11

%

13

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY


WEST

EUROPE

Nov
2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

3

JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

GREGGS

-20

%

FLOOR AND DECOR

HOLDINGS

-16

%

FIRST REPUBLIC

BANK

-16

%

ICON PLC

-16

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2022

META PLATFORMS

(Previously FACEBOOK)

10

%

TENCENT

7

%

ALPHABET

7

%

PAYPAL

6

%

ALIBABA GROUP

6

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 17 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2022

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(11.4%)(13.0%)+13.1%+29.2%+22.8%

Adjusted NAV Return(3.8%)(1.9%)+19.2%+21.3%+18.9%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (4.1%)(2.3%)+21.4%+25.1%+22.8%

Benchmark Index^(4.1%)(1.6%)+15.2%+14.3%+12.2%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

EDWARDS

LIFESCIENCES

-14

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was

announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four

Marlin shares held

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May

2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were

listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.

(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/

emailed to shareholders in early May 2021)

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the Shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment

of the Warrants and ending on the last Business

Day before the final Exercise Price is announced by

Marlin. Dividends totalling 7.43 cents per share have

been declared to date and there is one more dividend

expected to be declared in the remaining period up to

the announcement of the 20 May 2022 exercise price

»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is

20 May 2022

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest

according to the Management

Agreement and other written

policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters

and Harry Smith (Senior Investment

Analysts) have prime responsibility

for managing the Marlin portfolio.

Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based

in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Alistair

Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,

Andy Coupe and David

McClatchy.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.