Global Dairy Update February 2022
• Fonterra, NZX and EEX enter GDT partnership for
future growth.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Monthly production decline observed across
all regions.
• Australia and New Zealand exports up. US and
EU monthly exports decline.
• China monthly imports decline. Middle East
and Africa, Latin America and Asia monthly
imports up.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collection for
January was 158.1 million kgMS, down 6.1% on
January the prior season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collection for January
was 9.3 million kgMS, down 4.2% on January
last season.
• Carbon Zero Simply Milk range expands.
Key Dates
17 March 2022
FY22 Interim Results Announcement
May 2022
FY22 Q3 Business Update
FEBRUARY 2022
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for the 12 months to
January 2022
Change for the 12 months
to January 2022
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
1.61.26.1
0.90.11.0
0.8
0.7
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Monthly production
decline observed across
all regions
New Zealand milk
production¹ decreased
6.1% on a litres basis, (down
6.1% on milk solids basis) in
January compared to January
the year prior.
Warm and very dry weather
across most regions
throughout January have
impacted soil moisture and
milk production.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to January was down 0.7%
on the year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for January, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production decreased 1.2%
in December compared to
December the year prior.
COVID-19 outbreaks and
isolation requirements are
impacting labour availability
and supply chains on
farm. Combined with early
dry
-
offs, sustained cull rates
and reduced milking interval,
this is negatively impacting
milk production.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to December
was 0.9% lower than the
year prior.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for January, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production²
decreased 0.8% in
November compared to the
same period the year prior.
Lower production volumes
year-on-year were driven
by Germany, France and
Netherlands but partially
offset by an increase in
Italy’s production.
EU milk production for the
12 months to November was
down 0.1% compared to the
same period the year prior,
was also driven by declines
in Germany, France and
Netherlands and offset by
increases in Italy and Ireland.
U
S milk production
decreased by 1.6% in
January, compared to the
same period the year prior.
Weaker production was
observed for the
third
consecutive month. This was
driven by continuing herd
size contractions and lower
milk per cow, and reflecting
increasing input costs.
Milk production
for the
12 months to January was
1.0% higher compared to the
same period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2
E
xcludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Australia and New Zealand
monthly exports up.
US and EU monthly
exports decline
Total New Zealand dairy
exports increased by 0.6%,
or 2,229 MT, in December
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Shipments of fluid milk
products, infant formula and
WMP increased year-on-year,
as well as MPC and WPC
but were partially offset by
lower shipments of SMP
and cheese.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were up by
4.0%, or 135,499 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven
by increases in WMP, fluid
milk product and cheese but
partially offset by declines in
AMF and SMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 1.6%, or 8,918 MT,
in November compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Lower exports of cheese,
SMP and cultured products,
down a combined 22,336 MT,
were partially offset by
stronger demand for MPC
and butter.
Exports for the 12 months to
November were up 0.2%, or
15, 617 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by increases in fluid milk
products and whey, and
partially offset by declines
in infant formula, cultured
products, WMP and butter.
US dairy exports
decreased 2.7%, or 5,247 MT,
in December compared to
the same period the year
prior and marks the end of a
10-month period of year-on-
year gains.
Lower demand for WPC
in China, whey in Vietnam
and SMP in Indonesia were
partially offset by an increase
in cheese to Japan and
lactose to China.
Exports for the 12 months to
December were up 10.2%, or
255,605 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven by
SMP, whey, cheese, fluid milk
products and butter, up a
combined 242,722 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased 53.1%, or 38,107 MT,
in December compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The significant increase in
December relative to the
same month the prior year
is driven by continued high
demand from China for fluid
milk products, up 24,627 MT,
and an increase in SMP and
cheese exports.
Exports for the 12 months
to December were up
18.8%, or 141,673 MT, on the
previous comparable period
and reflect the significant
increase on November
and December.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, and also SMP
and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
2.753.10.6
18.8
1.6
10.20.24.0
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China monthly imports
decline. Middle East and
Africa, Latin America and
Asia monthly imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
7.6%, or 10,356 MT, in
November compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for cheese
and whey to Mexico and SMP
to Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to November were up 3.7%
compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by increases in cheese, SMP
and fluid milk products and
partially offset by declines
in WMP.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 7.5%, or 29,498 MT,
in November compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was driven
by higher demand for SMP
and cultured products
to Philippines, and whey
to Vietnam.
Imports for the 12 months to
November were down 0.5%,
or 26,757 MT, compared
to the same period the
year prior, driven by lower
volumes of WMP and SMP,
and offset by an increase in
whey and cheese.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 18.4%, or
70,513 MT, in November
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was
predominantly driven by
higher volumes of SMP to
Algeria and Libya, fluid milk
products and cheese to Iraq
and Libya.
Imports for the 12 months
to November were up 5.0%,
or 249,509 MT, compared
to November the year prior,
driven by increases in cheese,
fluid milk products, cultured
products and ice cream.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
13. 0%, or 42,365 MT, in
December compared to
December 2020, which
was a record month for
China imports.
Declines were observed
in WMP and SMP import
volumes as supply is limited.
Whey imports were also
down as hog herds in China
decline, decreasing the
demand for whey as feed.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 18.0%, or
630,474 MT, driven by fluid
milk products, WMP, whey
and SMP, partially offset by
decreases in infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
13.0
7.57.6
0.55.0
%
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
18.0
18.4
3.7
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 January
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
Change for January 2022
compared to January 2021
4.21.49.56.1
1.62.84.13.6
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collections for January
were 9.3 million kgMS, a
4.2% decrease on January
last season as third party
volumes decreased and farm
collections were flat year-
on-year. Fonterra collections
across Australia for the seven
months for the season-to-
date were 67.6 million kgMS,
a 1.6% decline on last season.
Summer rainfall deficits
across Western Victoria and
Tasmania are impacting
production with reduced
pasture and summer crop
being fed and which is being
substituted by low quality
silage harvested this spring.
North Island milk
collections in January were
86.8 million kgMS, 9.5% lower
than January last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 629.0 million kgMS,
4.1% behind last season.
North Island milk collections
continued to decline. January
had high temperatures and
was very dry for the whole
month, contributing to feed
deficits and heat stress.
South Island m
ilk
c
ollections in January were
71.3 million kgMS, 1.4% lower
than last January. Season-
to-date collections were
4
02.7 million kgMS, 2.8%
behind last season.
The South Island was less
impacted than the North
Island by the hot and dry
weather, with rain giving
some relief to feed supply.
Otago and Southland were
the only region where
Ja nuary milk collections were
above last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for January were
158.1 million kgMS, 6.1% lower
than last January. Season-
to-date collections were
1, 032.6 million kgMS, 3.6%
behind last season.
Hot, dry weather across most
of the country for the month
of January led to much lower
milk collections compared to
last season.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2021/22 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2021/22 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
9.30-
9.90
1, 4 8 0
M
kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra
in New
Z
ealand
%
%
%
%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
FEB SEP FEB
APR
JUL
SEP
DEC
FEB APR JUL DEC
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
Strengthening inflation in the
USA saw short-term interest
rates surge higher and briefly
shake the confidence of equity
markets, and this resulted in
increased investor demand for
safe haven assets such as the
USD. The NZD/USD exchange
rate depreciated to below 66 US
cents briefly before stabilising.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
15 February 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 1 March 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
4.3
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,880
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
26.8
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 6,889/MT
1.3
AMF
USD 4,303/MT
6.4
SMP
USD 4,503/MT
4.1
WMP
USD 6,686/MT
5.1
BUTTER
USD 5,881/MT
3.5
CHEDDAR
26,766
MT
LATEST AUCTION
380,084
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Fonterra, NZX and EEX
enter GDT partnership
for future growth
Fonterra has agreed a
strategic partnership with
New Zealand’s Exchange
(NZX) and the European
Energy Exchange (EEX) to
each take ownership stakes
in Global Dairy Trade (GDT)
alongside the Co-op.
Subject to the approval
of Boards, clearance from
European or any other
relevant competition
law authorities, and
finalisation of transaction
documentation, the
partnership is expected to be
completed mid-2022, with
Fonterra, NZX and EEX each
holding an equal one-third
(33.33%) shareholding in the
global dairy auction platform.
Fonterra Chief Executive
Miles Hurrell says the move
to a broader ownership
structure marks the next
step in the evolution of
GDT – further enhancing
the standing of GDT as
an independent, neutral,
and transparent price
discovery platform, giving
it a presence in prominent
international dairy producing
regions, and creating future
growth opportunities.
“This is good news for our
farmer owners, unit holders,
and all dairy industry
participants and is expected
to lead to greater volumes
being traded on GDT. It will
bring more participants and
transactions, stimulating
further growth of risk
management contracts
available on financial
trading platforms.
“We all know that dairy is
one of the most volatile
traded commodities,” he
says. “This partnership is
another step in helping
to manage this risk for
everyone – from the farmer
through to the customer
at the end of the supply
chain. A more liquid dairy
trading environment allows
for the growth of financial
tools which can be used by
all participants to better
manage price volatility.
“Our focus has been about
securing the best partners,
and NZX and EEX share our
vision for a stronger, more
liquid auction platform that
benefits all involved. We
are also closely aligned on
future possibilities for GDT
as the world’s most trusted
reference point for dairy
commodity prices.”
NZX Chief Executive
Mark Peterson says the
price discovery that GDT
provides the international
dairy industry is crucial for
dealing with volatility and its
associated risks.
“We see the expansion
of the physical trading
environment as both further
strengthening existing
financial contracts and
enabling the creation of
new tools and opportunities
for dairy processors and
end-users to manage price
volatility. These offer clear
benefits for New Zealand
dairy farmers and customers
around the world,” he said.
EEX Chief Strategy Officer
Dr Tobias Paulun says
“becoming a shareholder
of Global Dairy Trade is
perfectly in line with the
EEX strategy of taking asset
classes which we already
successfully serve to a
global dimension. With our
experience in operating
Europe’s leading trading
platform for dairy futures,
but also with multiple spot
contracts in the energy
space, we believe that we
can be of value supporting
GDT’s growth vision.
“At the same time, we
can create value for the
global dairy value chain
by further improving price
discovery and price risk
management instruments.”
GDT Director Dr Eric
Hansen says “GDT is excited
that the addition of NZX
and EEX as shareholders
alongside Fonterra will
enable us to build on our
success in establishing a
global brand and expertise
in price discovery to create
more opportunities for
our customers.
“The strong alignment of all
three shareholding partners
to GDT’s purpose of credible
price discovery will support
initiatives to increase
liquidity on GDT, attract new
supply from prominent dairy
producing regions, and will
strengthen GDT’s linkages to
financial trading platforms.”
Our Performance
Our Co-op
8
Carbonzero Simply Milk
range expands
The range of carbonzero
Simply Milk is expanding to
include a 3-litre bottle size
following the success of the
inaugural 2-litre bottles.
Developed in a collaboration
between Fonterra and
another Kiwi New Zealand
co-operative, Foodstuffs
North Island, Simply Milk has
been certified carbonzero
by supporting native forest
regeneration and renewable
energy projects that offset
our emissions.
Since the launch of the
carbonzero Simply Milk
brand, Fonterra and
Foodstuffs have continued
to make progress on
climate change.
We are taking steps to
achieve our sustainability
targets including issuing
greenhouse gas reports to
farmer suppliers, announcing
trials for Kowbucha to
reduce methane emissions
in cows and switching our
Te Awamutu site from coal to
biomass reducing emissions
by 10% in the past year.
Foodstuffs North Island are
also doing their part and
have pledged to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by
30% below 2005 levels, by
2030, and to become carbon
neutral by 2050.
Kiwis have been doing their
bit too, and by choosing
Simply Milk they’ve helped
offset 4,223 tonnes of
carbon. This is equivalent
to the carbon captured by
10,000 planted native trees
over 50 years.
Christofer Anderson, Head
of Merchandise for Chilled
Beverages Foodstuffs North
Island says, “New Zealanders
are increasingly more
conscious of the impact of
what they buy and consume
on our planet, and we’re
seeing this trend translate
to the choices we bring to
our customers.
“New Zealanders are
increasingly more conscious
of the impact of what they
buy and consume on our
planet, and we’re seeing this
trend translate to the choices
we bring to our customers.
Since the introduction of
Simply Milk back in 2020,
over 2.2 million bottles have
been sold, and because
customers tend to buy
the size of milk to suit
their fridge, it was time to
introduce a Simply Milk
for 3L milk drinkers, who
also want to make a simple
swap that can make a
big difference.”
“Simply Milk is a great
way for Kiwis to support
action on climate change,”
says Rosie Cotter,
National Sustainability
Manager at Fonterra
Brands New Zealand.
"As New Zealand owned
co-operatives, Foodstuffs
and Fonterra are committed
to delivering sustainable
products for our customers
that are better for the
planet. Simply Milk helps us
achieve this.”
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to November; Australia to December; New Zealand and US to January.
NOTE: Data for EU to November; New Zealand, US and Australia to December.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to November; China to December.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN OCT
FEB JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JANUARY
2022
JANUARY
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
158.1168.2(6.1%)1,032.61,071.2(3.6%)
North Island86.896.0(9.5%)630.0656.8(4.1%)
South Island71.372.3(1.4%)402.7414.3(2.8%)
Australia9.39.7(4.2%)67.668.7(1.6%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(15 FEBRUARY 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
26,766380,084
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
3.9%(13.8%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,8804,250
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
28.7%30.2%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
4.3%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update February 20222022-02-27
“• Fonterra, NZX and EEX enter GDT partnership for future growth. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production decline observed across all regions. • Australia and New Zealand exports up. US and EU monthly exports decline. • China monthly imports decline. Middle East a…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update January 20222022-01-27
“• Farmers vote in favour of Fonterra’s Flexible Shareholding structure. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Monthly production decline observed across all regions. • Australia and US monthly exports continue to grow. New Zealand and EU monthly exports decline. • China and Asia mo…”
- FSF — Fonterra Shareholders' Fund: Global Dairy Update April 20222022-04-29
“• Fonterra's Research and Development Centre celebrates 95 years. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production continue to decline. EU monthly production flat. • New Zealand monthly exports flat, Australia and US exports up. EU monthly expor…”