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MLN – March 2022 monthly update

Operational Update8 March 2022MLNFinancials

1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER

Marlin’s gross performance return for February was down (9.2%),

while the adjusted NAV return was down (9.6%). This compared with

our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index

(50% hedged to NZD), which was down (2.8%).

Both equity and bond markets globally had a difficult month in

February as expectations for the number of interest rate hikes that

would be delivered by central banks globally ramped up quickly,

and Russia invaded Ukraine after months of posturing. Global

growth stocks felt the impact most heavily, falling by (3.5%), while

more cyclical value stocks fared better but still fell by (1.6%) in the

month. This is a continuation of the trend seen in January, where

value stocks have materially outperformed due to rising interest

rates and commodity prices (which tend to favour banks and energy

companies).

Fourth quarter earnings reporting continued in February with 79%

of companies that reported in the US beating growth expectations.

Even though corporate earnings results have been solid, wider global

macro-economic concerns are front of mind for investors.

Portfolio Changes

Market weakness has given us the opportunity to add two very high-

quality software companies to the portfolio, Salesforce and Microsoft.

Salesforce is the dominant provider of cloud customer relationship

management (CRM) technology globally. According to research

company IDC, Salesforce has 25% share of the cloud CRM market,

while the next closest players have just 4-5% market share each.

Salesforce’s business-critical software offerings are used by 90% of

Fortune 500 companies. Salesforce’s revenue growth strategy is to

“land and expand”: land a new customer, and once they’re using one

or more of the Salesforce products, expand their usage by upselling

or cross-selling other offerings from Salesforce’s vast ecosystem.

Salesforce has also historically grown via acquisitions. We see

Salesforce as a quality business that is well-positioned to grow and

take market share in a fast-growing software market.

Microsoft develops, sells and supports business critical software

and cloud computing services. Founded in 1975, Microsoft products

include many well-known franchises such as the Windows operating

system, Office productivity applications, and Azure cloud services.

LinkedIn, its business oriented social network, is used by millions to

make connections, and outside of the office Microsoft’s Xbox gaming

system is second only to Sony’s PlayStation. Microsoft’s customers

range from consumers and small businesses to the world’s biggest

companies and government agencies. We see Microsoft as very well

positioned for strong secular growth as businesses undertake digital

transformations and ‘cloudify’ themselves by moving from on-premise

servers to off-premise cloud solutions.

Portfolio News

Earnings season has continued, with ten portfolio companies

reporting during the month.

Meta (-33%), formerly Facebook, fell following its fourth quarter

results. While its revenue grew 20% in the quarter (ahead of market

expectations), their commentary on growth for next year disappointed

the market. They are seeing some headwinds in advertising demand

after changes from Apple that impact advertising tracking. Users are

also spending more time on Meta’s new Reels short video product

(rather than scrolling down the timeline / using Stories) and Meta

haven’t put much advertising load on this new product yet. They

also cited some headwinds from Tik Tok competition. All considered,

this means revenue in 2022 is likely to grow at circa.14%, compared

to the 17% growth previously expected. While the result was

disappointing, they are still the dominant social media platform with

close to three billion users globally and will continue to benefit from

the structural growth of digital advertising. Overall, we think it is still a

great business and the market should ultimately reflect this value. We

have bought more shares on the back of this share price weakness

and Meta remains the highest weighting stock in the Marlin portfolio.

Alphabet (-0.2%) in contrast to the weak Meta result, our other

digital advertising investment Alphabet goes from strength to

strength. Revenue grew 33% - 34% better than expectations - driven

by strong performance across Search (+36% year on year), YouTube

(+25% y/y), Network (+26% y/y) and Google Cloud (+45% y/y).

Google also noted 70%+ growth in backlog for its cloud business

ending the year at circa $51bn. Operating income of $22bn (+40%

y/y) was also 3% ahead of expectation and the company bought

back $50bn of stock for the year. Despite Alphabet’s scale, the

business continues to grow rapidly and generate a lot of free cash

flow.

1

Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).

MONTHLY UPDATE

March 2022

Warrant Price

$

0.05

$

1. 3 0

Share Price

MLN NAVPREMIUM

1

$

1. 0 9 20.1

%


as at 28 February 2022

2
KEY DETAILS

as at 28 February 2022

FUND TYPE

Listed Investment Company

INVESTS IN

Growing international companies

LISTING DATE

1 October 2007

FINANCIAL YEAR END

30 June

TYPICAL PORTFOLIO

SIZE

20-35 stocks

INVESTMENT CRITERIA

Long-term growth

PERFORMANCE

OBJECTIVE

Long-term growth of capital and

dividends

TAX STATUS

Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)

MANAGER

Fisher Funds Management Limited

MANAGEMENT FEE RATE

1.25% of gross asset value

(reduced by 0.10% for every

1% of underperformance

relative to the change in the

NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index

with a floor of 0.75%)

PERFORMANCE FEE

HURDLE

Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank

Bill Index + 5%

PERFORMANCE FEE

10% of returns in excess of

benchmark and high water mark

HIGH WATER MARK

$1.20

PERFORMANCE FEE CAP

1.25%

SHARES ON ISSUE

193m

MARKET CAPITALISATION

$251m

GEARING

None (maximum permitted 20% of

gross asset value)

PayPal (-35%) also fell materially in the month following their earnings

and 2022 guidance, which the market did not like, with the stock

now back at pre-Covid levels despite the business generating over

40% more revenue today. Notably, net account additions slowed in

the quarter and resulted in the company walking away from a long-

term target of 750m accounts set in early 2021, now focussing on

driving revenue growth by deepening engagement with their most

regular users, which drives the majority of revenues. On the back of

this weakness, we have taken the opportunity to increase PayPal’s

weight in the portfolio as we believe the company has a growth

profile that is still intact, owns very attractive payments assets, and is

exposed to strong secular e-commerce tailwinds.

Ashley Gardyne

Senior Portfolio Manager

Fisher Funds Management Limited

SECTOR SPLIT

as at 28 February 2022

30

%

CONSUMER

DISCRETIONARY

8

%

HEALTH CARE

22

%


FINANCIALS

24

%

COMMUNICATION

SERVICES

GEOGRAPHICAL

SPLIT

as at 28 February 2022

8

%

ASIA

79

%

NORTH

AMERICA

3

%

INDUSTRIALS

1

%


SOUTH AMERICA

The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.

12

%

11

%

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY


WEST

EUROPE

Nov
2007

Nov

2008

Nov

2009

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Nov

2014

Nov

2013

Share Price/Total Shareholder Return

Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return

Nov

2015

$

1.00

$

0.00

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

$

3.00

$

4.00

$

5.00

$

2.00

Nov

2018

Nov

2019

Nov

2020

Nov

2021

3

FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING

THE PORTFOLIO

during the month

SIGNATURE BANK

+13

%

ALIBABA GROUP

-16

%

STONECO

-28

%

PAYPAL HOLDINGS

-33

%

5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2022

META PLATFORMS

(Previously FACEBOOK)

7

%

ALPHABET

7

%

PAYPAL

7

%

TENCENT

6

%

AMAZON

5

%

The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.

PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2022

1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(3.1%)(14.9%)+7.1%+27.2%+22.3%

Adjusted NAV Return(9.6%)(9.5%)+1.5%+15.5%+15.8%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (9.2%)(9.0%)+3.1%+19.1%+19.7%

Benchmark Index^(2.8%)(3.8%)+8.4%+11.6%+10.8%

^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)

Non-GAAP Financial Information

Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It

assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP

measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/

META PLATFORMS

(FACEBOOK)

-35

%

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2022

Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be

taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can

and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.

Marlin Global Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740

Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz

4

Computershare Investor Services Limited

Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142

Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787

Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz

ABOUT

MARLIN GLOBAL

Marlin is an investment company

listed on the New Zealand Stock

Exchange. The company gives

shareholders an opportunity to

invest in a diversified portfolio of

between 20 and 35 quality growing

international companies (excluding

New Zealand and Australia) through

a single, professionally managed

investment. The aim of Marlin

is to offer investors competitive

returns through capital growth and

dividends.

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Regular Dividends

»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010

»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be

paid to shareholders quarterly

»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,

interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital

»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather

than a regular income stream have the opportunity to

participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan

(DRP)

»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount

to market price

»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October

2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax

resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax

Share Buyback Programme

»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it

elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market

»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury

stock

»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-

issued for the dividend reinvestment plan

Warrants

»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was

announced

»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible

shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four

Marlin shares held

»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May

2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were

listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.

(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/

emailed to shareholders in early May 2021)

»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted

down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash

dividends declared on the Shares with a record date

during the period commencing on the date of allotment

of the Warrants and ending on the last Business Day

before the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin.

Dividends totalling 9.92 cents per share have been

declared to date and there are no more dividends

expected to be declared in the remaining period up to

the announcement of the 20 May 2022 exercise price.

»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is

20 May 2022

»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an

Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022


MANAGEMENT

The Manager has authority delegated

to it from the Board to invest

according to the Management

Agreement and other written

policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed

by Fisher Funds Management

Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior

Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters

and Harry Smith (Senior Investment

Analysts) have prime responsibility

for managing the Marlin portfolio.

Together they have significant

combined experience and are very

capable of researching and investing

in the quality global companies that

Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based

in Takapuna, Auckland.


BOARD

The Board of Marlin comprises

independent directors Alistair

Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,

Andy Coupe and David

McClatchy.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.