MLN – March 2022 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for February was down (9.2%),
while the adjusted NAV return was down (9.6%). This compared with
our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was down (2.8%).
Both equity and bond markets globally had a difficult month in
February as expectations for the number of interest rate hikes that
would be delivered by central banks globally ramped up quickly,
and Russia invaded Ukraine after months of posturing. Global
growth stocks felt the impact most heavily, falling by (3.5%), while
more cyclical value stocks fared better but still fell by (1.6%) in the
month. This is a continuation of the trend seen in January, where
value stocks have materially outperformed due to rising interest
rates and commodity prices (which tend to favour banks and energy
companies).
Fourth quarter earnings reporting continued in February with 79%
of companies that reported in the US beating growth expectations.
Even though corporate earnings results have been solid, wider global
macro-economic concerns are front of mind for investors.
Portfolio Changes
Market weakness has given us the opportunity to add two very high-
quality software companies to the portfolio, Salesforce and Microsoft.
Salesforce is the dominant provider of cloud customer relationship
management (CRM) technology globally. According to research
company IDC, Salesforce has 25% share of the cloud CRM market,
while the next closest players have just 4-5% market share each.
Salesforce’s business-critical software offerings are used by 90% of
Fortune 500 companies. Salesforce’s revenue growth strategy is to
“land and expand”: land a new customer, and once they’re using one
or more of the Salesforce products, expand their usage by upselling
or cross-selling other offerings from Salesforce’s vast ecosystem.
Salesforce has also historically grown via acquisitions. We see
Salesforce as a quality business that is well-positioned to grow and
take market share in a fast-growing software market.
Microsoft develops, sells and supports business critical software
and cloud computing services. Founded in 1975, Microsoft products
include many well-known franchises such as the Windows operating
system, Office productivity applications, and Azure cloud services.
LinkedIn, its business oriented social network, is used by millions to
make connections, and outside of the office Microsoft’s Xbox gaming
system is second only to Sony’s PlayStation. Microsoft’s customers
range from consumers and small businesses to the world’s biggest
companies and government agencies. We see Microsoft as very well
positioned for strong secular growth as businesses undertake digital
transformations and ‘cloudify’ themselves by moving from on-premise
servers to off-premise cloud solutions.
Portfolio News
Earnings season has continued, with ten portfolio companies
reporting during the month.
Meta (-33%), formerly Facebook, fell following its fourth quarter
results. While its revenue grew 20% in the quarter (ahead of market
expectations), their commentary on growth for next year disappointed
the market. They are seeing some headwinds in advertising demand
after changes from Apple that impact advertising tracking. Users are
also spending more time on Meta’s new Reels short video product
(rather than scrolling down the timeline / using Stories) and Meta
haven’t put much advertising load on this new product yet. They
also cited some headwinds from Tik Tok competition. All considered,
this means revenue in 2022 is likely to grow at circa.14%, compared
to the 17% growth previously expected. While the result was
disappointing, they are still the dominant social media platform with
close to three billion users globally and will continue to benefit from
the structural growth of digital advertising. Overall, we think it is still a
great business and the market should ultimately reflect this value. We
have bought more shares on the back of this share price weakness
and Meta remains the highest weighting stock in the Marlin portfolio.
Alphabet (-0.2%) in contrast to the weak Meta result, our other
digital advertising investment Alphabet goes from strength to
strength. Revenue grew 33% - 34% better than expectations - driven
by strong performance across Search (+36% year on year), YouTube
(+25% y/y), Network (+26% y/y) and Google Cloud (+45% y/y).
Google also noted 70%+ growth in backlog for its cloud business
ending the year at circa $51bn. Operating income of $22bn (+40%
y/y) was also 3% ahead of expectation and the company bought
back $50bn of stock for the year. Despite Alphabet’s scale, the
business continues to grow rapidly and generate a lot of free cash
flow.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using NAV to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
March 2022
Warrant Price
$
0.05
$
1. 3 0
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
1. 0 9 20.1
%
as at 28 February 2022
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 28 February 2022
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.20
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
193m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$251m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
PayPal (-35%) also fell materially in the month following their earnings
and 2022 guidance, which the market did not like, with the stock
now back at pre-Covid levels despite the business generating over
40% more revenue today. Notably, net account additions slowed in
the quarter and resulted in the company walking away from a long-
term target of 750m accounts set in early 2021, now focussing on
driving revenue growth by deepening engagement with their most
regular users, which drives the majority of revenues. On the back of
this weakness, we have taken the opportunity to increase PayPal’s
weight in the portfolio as we believe the company has a growth
profile that is still intact, owns very attractive payments assets, and is
exposed to strong secular e-commerce tailwinds.
Ashley Gardyne
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 28 February 2022
30
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
8
%
HEALTH CARE
22
%
FINANCIALS
24
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 28 February 2022
8
%
ASIA
79
%
NORTH
AMERICA
3
%
INDUSTRIALS
1
%
SOUTH AMERICA
The Marlin portfolio also holds cash.
12
%
11
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
WEST
EUROPE
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
3
FEBRUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
SIGNATURE BANK
+13
%
ALIBABA GROUP
-16
%
STONECO
-28
%
PAYPAL HOLDINGS
-33
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 28 February 2022
META PLATFORMS
(Previously FACEBOOK)
7
%
ALPHABET
7
%
PAYPAL
7
%
TENCENT
6
%
AMAZON
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 28 February 2022
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(3.1%)(14.9%)+7.1%+27.2%+22.3%
Adjusted NAV Return(9.6%)(9.5%)+1.5%+15.5%+15.8%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (9.2%)(9.0%)+3.1%+19.1%+19.7%
Benchmark Index^(2.8%)(3.8%)+8.4%+11.6%+10.8%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
META PLATFORMS
(FACEBOOK)
-35
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 28 February 2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777 | Fax: +64 9 488 8787
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»On 19 April 2021 a new issue of warrants (MLNWE) was
announced
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every four
Marlin shares held
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on 17 May
2021 based on a 14 May 2021 Record Date and were
listed on the NZX Main Board from 18 May 2021.
(Information pertaining to the warrants was mailed/
emailed to shareholders in early May 2021)
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $1.28, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the Shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment
of the Warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin.
Dividends totalling 9.92 cents per share have been
declared to date and there are no more dividends
expected to be declared in the remaining period up to
the announcement of the 20 May 2022 exercise price.
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants (MLNWE) is
20 May 2022
»The final Exercise Price will be announced and an
Exercise Form sent to warrant holders in April 2022
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated
to it from the Board to invest
according to the Management
Agreement and other written
policies. Marlin’s portfolio is managed
by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Ashley Gardyne (Senior
Portfolio Manager), Chris Waters
and Harry Smith (Senior Investment
Analysts) have prime responsibility
for managing the Marlin portfolio.
Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based
in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Alistair
Ryan (Chair), Carol Campbell,
Andy Coupe and David
McClatchy.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.