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KFL – March 2022 Quarterly Newsletter

Quarterly Update25 April 2022KFLFinancials

Kingfish continues to back quality growth companies
During the March quarter the stock market behaved like a “voting machine”,

but we continue to bank on companies that will “weigh-up” over time.

Benjamin Graham was one of the great investing minds. A key principle

of his is that in the short run, the stock market is like a voting machine,

tallying up which stocks are popular and unpopular. In the long run, the

market is like a weighing machine, assessing the substance of a company.

Unfortunately, during the quarter with interest rates rising sharply our high-

quality growth portfolio proved unpopular.

Kingfish performance – a tough quarter for investors

Kingfish underperformed the local market in the quarter, falling −9.6%,

(gross performance/ adjusted NAV return) more than the −7.1% fall of the

S&P/NZX50G index. We recognise this is a disappointing and painful

result.

At times like this, we ask ourselves three questions:

1. Why the poor performance?

2. What are we doing about it?

3. What have we learned?

Why the poor performance?

The key factor during the period was sharply rising interest rates on the back

of stubborn inflation. At the end of last year, the market was expecting the

US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates two times over the upcoming 12

months. Today, the market is expecting ten rate hikes over the upcoming 12

months!

The pace of those moves was bad for share markets generally as it

reduces the value investors place on future cash flows. It also resulted in

the outperformance of defensive (utilities) and cyclical companies (energy,

banks) over quality growth companies for the first time in a while. Those

companies typically have narrower moats and shorter growth runways.

What are we doing about it?

As long-term investors, we are constantly questioning whether anything

has changed the width of the moat, the length of the growth runway or the

quality of the management teams.

In addition, we have been scrutinising inflationary pressures on costs and the

extent to which our companies can use their pricing power to maintain profit

margins. In most cases nothing has changed, cost inflation is present but

hasn’t got worse. Logistics or supply chains remain disrupted but haven’t got

worse. Our companies are putting through price increases to offset inflation.

The good news is we are starting to see more attractive valuations in the

portfolio. That is a function of both the price falls and the earnings of these

companies still growing.

We have started to deploy cash into the most attractive opportunities where

our assessment of the investment hasn’t changed or the long-term picture

hasn’t altered, but the stock price has fallen sharply. We have bought shares

in Summerset and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare for example.

What have we learned?

Volatility is inevitable. It happens every year, and every few years the

volatility is more severe. For patient, long-term investors, while painful, it is

an opportunity.

This rotation away from growth companies is a reminder that in the short

term the valuation multiple can sometimes be the biggest driver of the

company’s share price. This can be most painful during a period of sharply

rising inflation and interest rates such as what we saw in the March

quarter. However, we must not forget that over time earnings growth is the

most important driver of the value of a company and returns for investors.

We remain focused on companies with wide and ideally widening moats,

long runways for growth, run by passionate and smart management teams.

Our investment process is geared to finding these companies, which we

expect will deliver superior returns over time.


Portfolio update – still heading in the right direction

Despite the poor price performance, the Kingfish portfolio had an

encouraging reporting season.

The majority of the companies in the portfolio that had results or trading

updates beat expectations. We are always on high alert for any

deterioration in the outlook, especially if it relates to underlying demand.

That wasn’t the case. The handful of companies that “missed” on guidance

were generally either directly the result of Omicron impacts (companies in

the travel industry) or deliberately cautious because of the uncertain macro

environment.

Our largest position, Mainfreight, was a good case in point of lacklustre

share price performance, despite a positive update and continued progress

against its long-term agenda. It provided a trading update for the first

43 weeks of its fiscal year. Profit growth was ahead of expectations.

The company is seeing a continuation of tailwinds in its Air & Ocean

international freight forwarding division. It also continues to execute well in

Transport and Warehousing, taking further market share.

Infratil performed well. The company started the year by reporting an

increase in the valuation of Canberra Data Centres (CDC), its largest asset.

At its investor day in February, Infratil announced strategies for two of its

investments which we expect to add value in the short to medium term.

Vodafone is investigating the sale of a stake in its mobile phone towers

business. Renewable electricity developer Longroad Energy is looking for

a co-investment partner which will allow it to pursue a much bigger growth

trajectory than previously indicated.

Auckland Airport’s share price rallied late in the quarter as the New

Zealand Government accelerated the removal of border restrictions and

isolation requirements. These have been a key barrier to people booking

trips, and we expect demand for travel to increase as a result.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare updated investors on expected revenue for

the year to March 2022 which was around 10% short of expectations in

the second half. This was due to a sharp slowdown in sales of hardware

and consumables in its hospital division because of the lower severity of

the Omicron COVID variant. This was likely exacerbated by high stock

levels in the US. We have seen apparent demand over short periods vary

significantly since the onset of COVID in conjunction with waves of COVID

patients and associated stocking/destocking. The company continues to

see signs that the larger installed base of its hardware is well utilised in the

absence of COVID related demand, which we expect will drive stronger

consumables sales over time.

1

Share price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expense, fees and tax, to four decimal places).

QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER

1 January 2022 – 31 March 2022

KFL NAV

$

1.58

$

1. 7 5

Share Price

PREMIUM

1

11.9

%


as at 31 March 2022

Sam Dickie

Senior Portfolio Manager

19 April 2022

1

Warrant Price

$

0.05

2
Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is

by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Kingfish Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or

completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial

adviser should be taken before making an investment. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Kingfish Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund

performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

3 Months

3 Years

(annualised)

5 Years

(annualised)

Company Performance

Total Shareholder Return(9.7%)+21.0%+17.6%

Adjusted NAV Return(9.6%)+11.0%+13.0%

Portfolio Performance

Gross Performance Return (9.6%)+13.5%+15.6%

S&P/NZX50G Index(7.1%)+7.1%+11.0%


Non-GAAP Financial Information

Kingfish uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross

performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures

is as follows:

»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for capital

allocation decisions after expenses, fees and tax,

»adjusted NAV return – the net return to an investor after expenses, fees and tax,

»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection,

before expenses, fees and tax, and

»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price

performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to

shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment

plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money), at warrant

expiry date.

All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total

shareholder return in this newsletter are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-

GAAP measures are described in the Kingfish Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the

policy is available at http://kingfish.co.nz/about-kingfish/kingfish-policies/

LISTED COMPANIES% Holding

Auckland Intl Airport8.6%

Contact Energy3.0%

Delegat Group3.2%

EBOS Group2.0%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare14.1%

Freightways3.7%

Infratil17.6%

Mainfreight20.0%

Meridian Energy1.0%

Port of Tauranga2.0%

Pushpay Holdings1.0%

Ryman Healthcare3.7%

Summerset10.1%

The a2 Milk Company4.3%

Vista Group International3.8%

Equity Total98.1%

New Zealand dollar cash1.9%

TOTAL100.0%

PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY

as at 31 March 2022

COMPANY NEWS

Dividend Paid 25 March 2022

A dividend of 3.55 cents per share was paid to Kingfish shareholders on 25 March 2022 under the quarterly distribution policy. Interest in Kingfish’s

dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with 41% of shareholders participating in the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3%

discount to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar, Computershare on (09) 488 8777.

PERFORMANCE

as at 31 March 2022

Kingfish Limited

Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740, New Zealand

Phone: +64 9 489 7094 | Fax: +64 9 489 7139

Email: enquire@kingfish.co.nz | www.kingfish.co.nz

If you would like to receive future

newsletters electronically please email

us at enquire@kingfish.co.nz

SIGNIFICANT RETURNS

IMPACTING THE PORTFOLIO

DURING THE QUARTER

FISHER & PAYKEL

HEALTHCARE

- 26

%

RYMAN

HEALTHCARE

- 23

%

VISTA GROUP

- 22

%

PUSHPAY

HOLDINGS

-14

%

SUMMERSET

GROUP

-13

%

FOREIGN TAX COMPLIANCE ACT (FATCA) AND COMMON REPORTING

STANDARD (CRS)


As a result of the New Zealand Government agreeing to participate in the exchange of information with other jurisdictions under the Foreign Tax

Compliance Act (FATCA) and Common Reporting Standard (CRS), Financial Institutions are required to undertake due diligence to determine the

account holders’ jurisdiction of tax residence. All shareholders will have received a Tax Residency Self-Certification form from Computershare

depending on when they first purchased their securities. Please ensure you complete and return this important document if you have not already

done so. For more information please visit the IRD website: https://www.ird.govt.nz/international-tax/exchange-of-information/crs/registration-and-

reporting or contact Computershare if you are unsure of whether you have completed your form.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.